Why star NFL running backs have been devalued: What's next

[CCBoy]

They play too many games for running backs to last very long. That makes their value go down because they will break down over 17 to 20 games and eventually ware out completely.

You made a good point.

The runner has too much seasonal contact to recover from. Injuries achieved each season accumulate as well in structure and joints.

A team now needs two interchangeable types to carry the running back loads, now.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

There's always exceptions to the rule. The only high-paid safeties who are worth their contracts are guys who can cover in man-to-man.

Covering man to man is not enough. Kearse and Wilson are able to cover TE/RB/WR3 types and yet they are not backend safeties.

They have to be able to come up and make run fits. If they have the athleticism to man ot man and cannot do that they are put at corner. They also need experience at the position because FS requires so much knowledge to read and react quickly. Without that then no amount of speed is going to get you to outside throws.

There is a "rule" for FS too. 4.4 speed, 4.1 shuttle, 6.9 cone are a baseline athletically. They need to show instincts and scheme soundness. They need to be able to make run fits and tackle.

Hooper is WAY underrated in my book.

 

[CCBoy]

Covering man to man is not enough. Kearse and Wilson are able to cover TE/RB/WR3 types and yet they are not backend safeties.

They have to be able to come up and make run fits. If they have the athleticism to man ot man and cannot do that they are put at corner. They also need experience at the position because FS requires so much knowledge to read and react quickly. Without that then no amount of speed is going to get you to outside throws.

There is a "rule" for FS too. 4.4 speed, 4.1 shuttle, 6.9 cone are a baseline athletically. They need to show instincts and scheme soundness. They need to be able to make run fits and tackle.

Hooper is WAY underrated in my book.

That was a good post as well as very helpful on standards.

 

[eromeopolk]

Something feels wrong about what's happening for running backs in the NFL. As teams approach training camp later this month, four respected veteran rushers remain free agents, seemingly with little interest. Kareem Hunt wasn't re-signed by the Browns after his contract expired, while Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released by their respective franchises to create salary cap space. None of the four has signed elsewhere.

Popular veterans getting cut toward the tail end of their careers is nothing new, but the age at which these players have become free agents stands out. Cook, Elliott and Hunt are 27. Fournette is 28. 27-year-old stars at other positions are years from being cut candidates. No team would dream of moving on from Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel or Budda Baker, each of whom is 27. Those 27-year-olds who play other positions are in the primes of their careers. Meanwhile, 27-year-old running backs are being portrayed as fossils hanging on to any hope of a meaningful NFL career for dear life.

Players are getting squeezed on both sides. With the first round of April's draft as an exception, draft capital used on running backs continues to fall. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs became the first running back duo to be selected in the top half of Round 1 since Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in 2017, a feat that happened far more often in the past. In 2022, no back came off the board in the top 32 picks, something that didn't happen even once over a nearly 50-year span between 1964 and 2012. Teams are using less draft capital on backs than ever before, and they appear to be more aggressive in moving on from their lead backs once they sign extensions.

A league that was once built around star backs dominating offensive workloads and competing for MVP awards now feels like something entirely different. When the Falcons and Lions drafted Robinson and Gibbs, they had to bring up the possibility of the backs as receivers around the formation to justify their choices. Backs who have received the franchise tag (such as Josh Jacobs this year) or who are approaching the time when they might earn their first extension (such as Najee Harris) are publicly wondering about whether running backs are getting a fair shake. It's reasonable to wonder whether star high school and college players should even consider playing running back when other positions offer more professional upside and stability...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...g-backs-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future

"Its all about the money. Not a damn things funny in this land of milk and honey" - Grand Master Flash.

Emmitt Smith will be the NFL rushing champ forever unless they have 30 game seasons and they change NFL rules that you cannot tackle below the waist. The rules were changed to protect the QB making the RB not important to the offense as he was when they could knock your QB into oblivion by any means necessary. No more "the QB must go down and he must go down hard". That means the great 7-10 RB is not needed. But to win games you have to run the ball. It is cheaper to do it by committee. So it is about the money flowing from the RB position to the QB position.

 

[Pass2Run]

Analytics drove the nail in the RB coffin...

You know we've had analytics since at least the 90s? There was a guy back in the Aikman days who would time his release and things like that. It's just much more advanced nowadays with computers.

 

[Pass2Run]

Salary cap and 4 year contracts. What's funny is this is what the players fought for. Here we are. No team has the time or the money to depend on 1 RB. You just can't do it anymore. The Cowboys even tried to buck that trend and it was a recipe on what not to do and other teams were paying attention. Doesn't really matter how good you are at that point because the shelf life with 1 team is short and the committee approach is the new normal. When you see teams like KC winning with a 7th rounder.. teams rather attempt to duplicate that than pay big money for a position you simply can't pay big money to.

The way I see it, safeties are actually rising in value while RBs are slightly on the decline.Teams are figuring out that it takes 11 on each side of the ball.

 

[CCBoy]

After all, Pollard won't demand anything close to what Zeke got. Given the current RB market, something like $10-12 million annually over three years with $15 million would get the job done. Saquon Barkley is struggling to squeeze $13 million AAV from the Giants, and Pollard doesn't have Saquon's resume.

https://thelandryhat.com/posts/cowboys-fans-twitter-tony-pollard-future-franchise-tag

 

[DuncanIso]

40 percent of passes are incomplete.

average rush is 4.x yards.

 

[kskboys]

That may all be true but think about the last two Super Bowls

the four teams that played in them what did they really have at running back????

all the best running backs are not making Super Bowls not in their prime not on their first big deals while they're making the most money...

you seen the top five even maybe top 10 running backs not make Super Bowls. This has nothing to do with Patrick mahomes when it comes to the rest of the league.

we're talking about Sanders, some dude named AKers, and I forget the name of the guy over there in Cincinnati but it's not exactly a household name. Not a top elite running back and then you have the running back by committee that not only Kansas City deployed but Kansas City copied that from what San Francisco did up to the point where they went and got McCaffrey but still they use a stable of running backs and decide each week which ones are going to be best for that game plan.

but if you look at our situation Tony Pollard is every bit as good as any of those running backs that were in the last two Super Bowls. so then whatever you put behind him and rotate in should be enough if the offensive line the game plan and the play calling and scheme all come together.

This is why Kellen Moore is gone because they believe they can do it better, not run more just run more efficiently and better.

Joe Mixon. Miles Sanders. Two of the best.

If you don't think Mixon is a household name, man, you don't pay much attention to NFL football. Sanders also.

Pollard is not on their level, at least yet. We'll find out this season either way.

 

[kskboys]

Depends on the kicker...Guy with the Raiders was the greatest NFL punter ever.

They are strategic influencers every bit affecting a game as do interceptions or spectacular plays of an offense.

On scoring, the kicker is just behind a quarterback in importance.

Does six to a points in a game mean much.

Sure it does!

Kickers...oh, a real cowboy, huh!

Kickers just aren't important. Until they are!!!

 

[CCBoy]

Bengals RB Joe Mixon reportedly agrees to restructured contract to stay in Cincinnati​

https://sports.yahoo.com/bengals-rb...contract-to-stay-in-cincinnati-000511253.html

 

[CCBoy]

The way I see it, safeties are actually rising in value while RBs are slightly on the decline.Teams are figuring out that it takes 11 on each side of the ball.

Defensive schemes are changing and adjusting for points in a game.

 

[noshame]

You're in a league that prefers the excitement of the passing game and over the years they've bent the rules to accommodate it. Pollard if healthy may land a deserved contract and break the mold.

 

[mcmvp]

It’s interesting though because Gibbs and Bijan got taken so high that unless they flip they should get paid down the road?

Typically if you are good 1st round picks seem to get big dollars. From Gurley to Zeke to McCaffery….

But in the cases of Zeke and Gurley, those 2nd deals turned out to be bad decisions

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

But in the cases of Zeke and Gurley, those 2nd deals turned out to be bad decisions

Right. Big we have yet to see the repurcussion of those bad decisions. We’ve yet to see a good running back taken high not get a big deal. Barkley is about to test it though.

 

[DuncanIso]

But in the cases of Zeke and Gurley, those 2nd deals turned out to be bad decisions

NFL owners make a killing on the rookie contracts.

2nd contracts are for the players.

Most never get a 2nd contract.

Most 2nd contracts are never completed.

Don’t feel sorry for the owners.

 

[diamonddelts]

NFL owners make a killing on the rookie contracts.

2nd contracts are for the players.

Most never get a 2nd contract.

Most 2nd contracts are never completed.

Don’t feel sorry for the owners.

THIS. Running backs should not be subjected to rookie deals since most of them will be burnt out before they can get a larger second contract. They should be able to maximize their value while they are in their prime.

 

[CCBoy]

The invention of the game of football was started on the basic principal of running the ball to advance it. That is still the real principal of ball advancement. The challenge is introduced if the ball is thrown first or not.

Money management at a point in time is in sight right now. That is evident, but running the ball is still the basis of the sport.

The running back position will always be part of team plans. No, the running back value will return, as that is still the sport. Not flags for tackling.

 

[CCBoy]

NFL owners make a killing on the rookie contracts.

2nd contracts are for the players.

Most never get a 2nd contract.

Most 2nd contracts are never completed.

Don’t feel sorry for the owners.

Now fully looking...just how much money are paid to those same players as compared to almost all other jobs?

In perspective, you complaining about that desparity as well?

Final line is, one is paid for what he gets done on the field as do coaches and players.

Opportunity is provided and talents and intense dedication governs currency of status. Sport.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Covering man to man is not enough. Kearse and Wilson are able to cover TE/RB/WR3 types

This is an odd list. Sure they can cover some TEs and RBs, but they aren't ever asked to cover WRs in man.