Why star NFL running backs have been devalued: What's next

[TheMarathonContinues]

It’s interesting though because Gibbs and Bijan got taken so high that unless they flip they should get paid down the road?

Typically if you are good 1st round picks seem to get big dollars. From Gurley to Zeke to McCaffery….

 

[buybuydandavis]

I heard a radio chat the other day while driving. It was either The Ticket or The Fan, and they were speculating that the RB position itself will be replaced by tweener WRs who can run the ball effectively from behind the line.

Recall that Pollard was drafted as more of tweener than a RB.

Want a career as a RB, better be able to catch the ball and be good in space.

I still think there is a place for thumpers, but the tailback is no longer the lead back, the tweener is.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

It seems i would agree with the consensus here, RBs who can be a threat not just running, but also receiving are what the NFL teams are looking for. Thus with Gibbs and Bijan, both are major threats as receivers as well. The fact they will be on their rookie deal is a major plus for the team. So great RBs can still be selected in the first round and you get at least four or five great years out of them since they will probably start from year 1. Backs like McCaffery and receivers like Deebo who can line up in the backfield as well are what teams are looking for. I think the Cowboys with Pollard and Deuce have that threat as well.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The same thing is happening to running backs as is happening to linebackers and, to some degree, safeties.

They don't have much impact on the passing game, so there's no point in paying htem.

Box safeties yes. Free no. S w/ range to get from centerfield to the boundary on deep outs and flies as well as able to handle run support are rare.

 

[beware_d-ware]

That article by Bill Barnwell is a long read, but excellent.

I took the time to read the article after this comment, and I'd recommend anyone reading this thread do the same. Barnwell tackles the RB salary topic from all angles, and he is dead on.

It was surprising to read that Barkley turned down a contract for $14M/yr with 2 franchise tags worth of money guaranteed. That's a top of the market offer, and refusing it just gets him tagged anyway.

 

[Scottishcowboy]

All the defensive players have gotten so much bigger and explosive now. You're seeing 280 lb defensive ends run 4.5s...and 340 lb DTackles run 4.8's and post crazy "jump out of the pool" videos. They are dangerous guys tackling these RBs.

Running Backs take far more beating...and aren't really getting the same protection QBs and WRs are from the new sissy rules.

A guy like Zeke...even now....probably would still be effective 30 years ago against the athletes that used to play back then. But now when you have a 6'5 275 lb dEnd that looks like Thor and can run as fast, or even faster, than running backs can.... once you lose that top gear ur done, whereas 30 years ago even when they lost their top end speed and cutting ability they could still out-athlete the defenders. Not anymore

I think this is the reason too.

Yes, it's a passing league but a great running game could still win so its not the reason. Its durability which I believe is all down to evolution of the human being and size of players that hit like a truck and it just wears down the RB body "earlier" than what happened 30+ years ago.

I was reading an article a year or so ago here in the UK about international rugby and injury and they said the average player is now around 45 pounds heavier than 50 years ago. That's massive, just imagine 20 impacts a game, week after week with that extra size. It's simple wear and tear on the human body and the RB position can't take that for 10 years.

Experts know this, 2nd contracts are likely a bad idea as a direct result.

 

[calicowboy54]

The same thing is happening to running backs as is happening to linebackers and, to some degree, safeties.

They don't have much impact on the passing game, so there's no point in paying htem.

I honestly think WR is another one. you look at the PAID WR, they drop off after a few years. definitely not making it thought the 2nd contract. with the Advent of the passing offenses in College i think WR can be brought in every 4-5 years and keep production going. YES YES there will be the rare few that get paid and do well... honestly i think you could replace CD's production with a college WR that you draft every few years. Problem it can take 2 years for them to develop so you kinda have to draft a star WR every 3 years to make sure you have one in your back pocket.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Box safeties yes. Free no. S w/ range to get from centerfield to the boundary on deep outs and flies as well as able to handle run support are rare.

There's always exceptions to the rule. The only high-paid safeties who are worth their contracts are guys who can cover in man-to-man.

 

[Flamma]

Why are safeties being devalued? Because it's no longer legal to make a big hit? That's what it looks like to me. This game has become soft. But people still pay for Sunday ticket.

 

[kskboys]

Its really simple. Backs fade out typically after 4 or 5 years. And you can get ones just as good as the old ones or better in the draft for cheaper and in later rounds.

A guy like Zeke doenst have a job because he isnt that good anymore.

The Emmits and Payton's of the league are the exceptions.

 

[Havic]

Todays rb has to be dynamic in both the pass and run game to get a 2nd good contract imo.

 

[blueblood70]

Not many teams can replicate K.C model , they dont have enough P Mahomes to go around , LOL

But , you are right RBs are injury risks and we cant rely on one RB, even Pollard pre injury was not effective against SF but after he went down it was pathetic .

That may all be true but think about the last two Super Bowls

the four teams that played in them what did they really have at running back????

all the best running backs are not making Super Bowls not in their prime not on their first big deals while they're making the most money...

you seen the top five even maybe top 10 running backs not make Super Bowls. This has nothing to do with Patrick mahomes when it comes to the rest of the league.

we're talking about Sanders, some dude named AKers, and I forget the name of the guy over there in Cincinnati but it's not exactly a household name. Not a top elite running back and then you have the running back by committee that not only Kansas City deployed but Kansas City copied that from what San Francisco did up to the point where they went and got McCaffrey but still they use a stable of running backs and decide each week which ones are going to be best for that game plan.

but if you look at our situation Tony Pollard is every bit as good as any of those running backs that were in the last two Super Bowls. so then whatever you put behind him and rotate in should be enough if the offensive line the game plan and the play calling and scheme all come together.

This is why Kellen Moore is gone because they believe they can do it better, not run more just run more efficiently and better.

 

[CCBoy]

Kickers, kickers shouldn't make more than 2k a game.

Depends on the kicker...Guy with the Raiders was the greatest NFL punter ever.

They are strategic influencers every bit affecting a game as do interceptions or spectacular plays of an offense.

On scoring, the kicker is just behind a quarterback in importance.

Does six to a points in a game mean much.

Sure it does!

Kickers...oh, a real cowboy, huh!

 

[Typhus]

Depends on the kicker...Guy with the Raiders was the greatest NFL punter ever.

They are strategic influencers every bit affecting a game as do interceptions or spectacular plays of an offense.

On scoring, the kicker is just behind a quarterback in importance.

Does six to a points in a game mean much.

Sure it does!

Kickers...oh, a real cowboy, huh!

Well I was referring to kickers, not punters, not that it matters, but if you want to drop a 1st on a great like Janikowski, then so be it.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

I took the time to read the article after this comment, and I'd recommend anyone reading this thread do the same. Barnwell tackles the RB salary topic from all angles, and he is dead on.

It was surprising to read that Barkley turned down a contract for $14M/yr with 2 franchise tags worth of money guaranteed. That's a top of the market offer, and refusing it just gets him tagged anyway.

It really is hard to imagine Barkley doing much better than the offer already on the table.

 

[CCBoy]

Well I was referring to kickers, not punters, not that it matters, but if you want to drop a 1st on a great like Janikowski, then so be it.

No...I was talking about cost and value considerations. I reserve first round for the high dollar players and first look at offensive and defensive linemen, myself. Those are the hardest to build and usually the first to crumble apart.

 

[Pass2Run]

It's been this way since Terrell Davis hit the scene.

It's actually not new. The Cowboys are one of the last to learn.

 

[Kingofholland]

It's very interesting to see the steady decline in RB value. It seems the good complete RBs will continue to get that 2nd contract with their team and its a tough decision because at the time they may be the focal point of the offense, but recent history shows most won't make it through the contract. In fact Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Cook have all had the same fate. In fact Over the Cap states there is an 83% fail rate in the RB making it through their contract. WOW

I still believe RBs are valuable, but with the defensive focus around stopping the pass the run game has opened up leading to more efficient run games that wouldnt be possible a decade or two ago with an inferior back. However, if you find a do it all dynamic back in their prime and you're a contender I think they're worth retaining atleast for a couple more years. If you're not a contender, there's no real point in committing to an RB.

 

[rambo2]

Something feels wrong about what's happening for running backs in the NFL. As teams approach training camp later this month, four respected veteran rushers remain free agents, seemingly with little interest. Kareem Hunt wasn't re-signed by the Browns after his contract expired, while Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released by their respective franchises to create salary cap space. None of the four has signed elsewhere.

Popular veterans getting cut toward the tail end of their careers is nothing new, but the age at which these players have become free agents stands out. Cook, Elliott and Hunt are 27. Fournette is 28. 27-year-old stars at other positions are years from being cut candidates. No team would dream of moving on from Myles Garrett, Deebo Samuel or Budda Baker, each of whom is 27. Those 27-year-olds who play other positions are in the primes of their careers. Meanwhile, 27-year-old running backs are being portrayed as fossils hanging on to any hope of a meaningful NFL career for dear life.

Players are getting squeezed on both sides. With the first round of April's draft as an exception, draft capital used on running backs continues to fall. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs became the first running back duo to be selected in the top half of Round 1 since Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in 2017, a feat that happened far more often in the past. In 2022, no back came off the board in the top 32 picks, something that didn't happen even once over a nearly 50-year span between 1964 and 2012. Teams are using less draft capital on backs than ever before, and they appear to be more aggressive in moving on from their lead backs once they sign extensions.

A league that was once built around star backs dominating offensive workloads and competing for MVP awards now feels like something entirely different. When the Falcons and Lions drafted Robinson and Gibbs, they had to bring up the possibility of the backs as receivers around the formation to justify their choices. Backs who have received the franchise tag (such as Josh Jacobs this year) or who are approaching the time when they might earn their first extension (such as Najee Harris) are publicly wondering about whether running backs are getting a fair shake. It's reasonable to wonder whether star high school and college players should even consider playing running back when other positions offer more professional upside and stability...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...g-backs-devalued-next-2023-free-agency-future

They play too many games for running backs to last very long. That makes their value go down because they will break down over 17 to 20 games and eventually ware out completely.

 

[CCBoy]

It's very interesting to see the steady decline in RB value. It seems the good complete RBs will continue to get that 2nd contract with their team and its a tough decision because at the time they may be the focal point of the offense, but recent history shows most won't make it through the contract. In fact Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Cook have all had the same fate. In fact Over the Cap states there is an 83% fail rate in the RB making it through their contract. WOW

I still believe RBs are valuable, but with the defensive focus around stopping the pass the run game has opened up leading to more efficient run games that wouldnt be possible a decade or two ago with an inferior back. However, if you find a do it all dynamic back in their prime and you're a contender I think they're worth retaining atleast for a couple more years. If you're not a contender, there's no real point in committing to an RB.

Just like cap moves with talent, swallow the pill and get a good runner in the next draft.