Why the draft cannot fix every roster hole

[morasp]

That's the glass half full thought process, and I hope it's right. From a fan perspective I think there is nothing wrong taking that POV, but you'd hope the front office would be more proactive than just expecting two picks to end up as starting caliber players. This is the same math that fans of pretty much all 32 teams are doing right now to gain excitement about their chances.

The Cowboys have two very good looking players from 2025 in Booker/EZ plus guys like Revel/Blue/James that we are hoping can still contribute, if not develop into full time regulars. That said though your draft classes will almost always look best right after the draft and get worse and worse as time goes on simply because NFL careers are typically really short and guys don't always get better.

The last 10 1st round picks I think we would all mostly agree the Cowboys hit on Booker/Smith/Lamb/Parson/Zeke, missed on Guyton(so far)/Mazi/Taco, LVE/Byron Jones were sort of OK picks you can live with but would probably have a redo. Taking hope and fandom out of the equation all the data both for the Cowboys and league wide suggests that two mid 1st round picks like the Cowboys have this year should have us counting on 1 plug and player starter that can be at least league average year 1 and 1 developmental player who may or may not ever make it.

Good points but I think most teams fall into the same situation in terms of roster management. When I look at the last two Super Bowl winners they both had two rookie starters.

Eagles Mitchell and DeJean
Seahawks Emmanwori and Zabel

 

[atlantacowboy]

The team doesn't have the organizational talent to build a Super Bowl contender through free agency or the draft. We just traded a HOF talent for draft picks and gave the savings to Daron Bland in what is regarded around the league as the worst defensive contract in the NFL. That's just who we are.

 

[SymphonySteve]

There's a big reason why the perceived quality of the draft is down this year. Actually, two reasons stemming from the same cause: NIL.

1. More top players have opted to stay in college where they'll get paid, in some cases, a nice tidy sum. There has been a concurrent drop in the number of underclassmen entering the draft dating back to 2022 or so. Which, along with that COVID year, has thinned out the top prospects.

2. And NFL front offices are lamenting this, players are entering at more advanced ages with more attendant wear-and-tear on their bodies. When I went through the list of the top prospective draftees, I was surprised how many of them were around age 24.

 

[Verdict]

Jerry loves you

I’m sure he does. I guess the Sooners can lament another season before it has actually happened. By dooming and still following the team you are really showing Jerry who is boss. lol.

 

[Verdict]

Oh…..I do not doubt that we will be relevant with those “good” players.

But Jerry has NO idea about how to assemble a complete team. Literally none whatsoever.
He is completely terrible at his job, and he is mostly reactionary after the fact.

Possibly so. But will you pretending or complaining cause the players we traded for to suddenly disappear? No. Moves have been made.

Things seem to be different. Will they result in a championship? At this point probably not, but this draft could very easily fall the Cowboys way for a change. We are definitely due some decent draft luck.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Good points but I think most teams fall into the same situation in terms of roster management. When I look at the last two Super Bowl winners they both had two rookie starters.

Eagles Mitchell and DeJean
Seahawks Emmanwori and Zabel

Yep and this is probably a good example, at least with Philly (I'm not as up to date on Seattles roster configuration), but Philly went out and and went CB/CB in that draft and those guys thrived. It certainly happens where you can hit like that, but what i loved about what Philly did was they already had a proven starter in Slay and brought in another solid veteran in Rodgers on the roster.

They needed CB help, they went out and got it by double dipping in the draft, but it wasn't a 'we need these guys to feast or its a lost season' type of situation. DeJean I think barely played the first few games that year and was brought along super slow. Both were hits but both didn't have to be.

My fear with the Cowboys is they are going to draft a LB high and pencil him in as the solution for week 1. Its that type of situation where I would rather go get a mid tier FA and then draft a LB. Create a true competition in camp and make the position a strength the way Philly did with their CB room instead of being all in a rookie.

 

[Verdict]

How many 3rd day picks since the 2020 draft are presently starters for the Dallas Cowboys?

I count 2, Jake Ferguson and Daron Bland.

That is also a factor in why the Cowboys cannot fill needs with the draft.

This is a critical issue because this is one of the very few areas in which a team can get some salary cap relief.

I would say that the more 3rd day draft picks you have as starters, the more you can take that saved money and apply it to the type of veteran free agents capable of impacting a game.

If all your starters are 1st and 2nd draft picks then you can expect to pay a lot to retain them. Then you don't have the money to spend on veterans.

Acquiring talent in the NFL these days involve a "snowball" effect.

The better a team drafts and coaches, the less they have to pay their starters and other significant contributors. You then have the money to apply towards veteran free agency.

The Seahawks have three starters drafted on day #3 since 2000. Not only that, they have three undrafted free agents starting as well. The one with the most experience has been there three seasons, the other two have been in the NFL for two seasons. They were all starting on an undrafted rookie minimum wage contract.

This is how they were able to afford signing Demarcus Lawrence, Sam Darnold and others.

Obviously, being able to start 3rd year players combined with additional veteran free agents means that the team is winning more games.

This attracts veteran free agents that are looking to win a championship. There is a large group of really talented veterans that have been paid throughout their careers but have never won a championship.

Not nly would they want to play on that team, they will be winning to take less depending on that team's probability of winning it all. Like I said, they have already been paid. Now they want the ring.

Not having a $65m per year QB probably doesn’t hurt their chances of adding talent either.

 

[Verdict]

Great point about the need for some of those middle round players to be starters. Btw, I count three instead of two Day 3 starters - IF Ryan Flournoy ends up starting this year. That’s obviously to be determined.

Round 2 and 4 have been rough for us this decade. We have one second round starter - Donovan Ezeiruaku from the last six drafts. That has killed us.

The 3rd round has been better but overall our Day 2 picks have really been below average lately. That has to change for us to have a chance to compete again.

We have been poor at drafting in the second round. No denying that fact.

 

[kskboys]

The team doesn't have the organizational talent to build a Super Bowl contender through free agency or the draft. We just traded a HOF talent for draft picks and gave the savings to Daron Bland in what is regarded around the league as the worst defensive contract in the NFL. That's just who we are.

Think it was worse than Diggs' contract?

 

[kskboys]

Not having a $65m per year QB probably doesn’t hurt their chances of adding talent either.

Yeah, and we're about through w/ the cheap part of his contract. I think this season got pushed down the road, but it's about to go to like 80 mil/season or so.

 

[Chuck 54]

Great point about the need for some of those middle round players to be starters. Btw, I count three instead of two Day 3 starters - IF Ryan Flournoy ends up starting this year. That’s obviously to be determined.

Round 2 and 4 have been rough for us this decade. We have one second round starter - Donovan Ezeiruaku from the last six drafts. That has killed us.

The 3rd round has been better but overall our Day 2 picks have really been below average lately. That has to change for us to have a chance to compete again.

I think that has been a fundamental philosophical issue.
In round 2, Jerry has a fairly long record of trying to beat the league by taking a stud athlete who is dropping from round 1 due to injury or character. He has so often gambled on getting first round value in round 2 when he should have been looking at solid starters with high floors. In rounds 2-4, especially, give me the productive, high floor guys who don’t have star potential but should become solid starters you don’t worry about.

Whether it’s from all his failures or Will or Stephen or coaches, I think he’s gradually started to move away from gambling on greatness and looking more at guys who are high character, productive in college, guys who should become starters or contributors. But he’s not there yet.

 

[Verdict]

V, IMO the problem with the Cowboys and free agency is not about getting a bunch of “high priced free agents.” Its about getting 3-4 free agents that start now and are here more than a year.

We use free agency as roster fill not starter upgrades. Signing most FAs to cheap one year “prove it” deals is ok for backups.Thats mostly what we’ve used FA for this last decade.

But for quality starters you need some talent on 2 or 3 year deals that in the long run are cheaper than a one year deal for a guy that hits but cost you more next year and then you lose him because you can’t afford him.

Now, see, you are actually on to something here. But I view this issue slightly differently than you.

The salary cap is a significant issue for the Cowboys. We have the highest paid QB in the league. But he’s not the best QB in the league.

Dak might be top 5 OR he might be around 20 depending on the week he is playing. Is Dak good enough to win a SB? Probably. Is Dak good enough to win a SB playing him as the highest priced QB in the league? So far the evidence says no.

The Patriots and Broncos went to the SB last year with cheap QBs, relatively speaking. That’s a significant advantage.

The Cowboys waste cap dollars on guys like Ferguson. Nice player. He’s Dak’s safety net. But was he worth what we paid him? Thats a guy we should have moved for a pick instead of extending him. That’s why this franchise can’t get over the hump.

Misses in the draft in the second round year after year aren’t helping either. Trying to fill a hole and missing is not success it is stupidity.

It would be better to draft an interior OL player that we don’t need today but who is a cheap salary going forward than to draft for need and miss and still have a hole.

Biadasz is an example of how you use players in the draft. He was an ok player but replaceable. We drafted Beebe, have a better player at a cheaper contract. We need more of those and lass Ferguson’s. You can’t give easily replaceable players a market value second contract and keep your cap in shape.

 

[Verdict]

How how many are still in the league... and how many were early contributors and to what extent? Obviously Micah, Osa, Diggs, Biadasz we're all starters, some All-pro, some pro bowl and contributed greatly in their early years.

Yes. To not include those player is disingenuous.

 

[Verdict]

Several of those guys we lost are “still in the league”. But what good is that if they aren’t here?

If you would like to research how many guys the Cowboys have drafted are still in the NFL, here is a good link:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/draft.htm

If good players are no longer here the obvious question is WHY, right? The short answer is the salary cap. One way or another the salary cap is and has been a continuous issue for the Cowboys. We make poor decisions in paying our own.

 

[tomokawan]

Jazz, as you said we have tons of holes to fill. And sometimes trading down for more picks is a good option.

Yes, we MUST hit on this draft. But IMO this year is not the year to “trade down to get extra picks”. Because I believe we need an impact defender that can help now and be around as a good starter for years.

The odds of collecting a bunch more of Day 2 picks and then those guys having immediate impact are low. At least according to history. We would have to be very lucky.

Yea, would lean to staying pat or trading up. My concern now is the Giants have picks 5 and 10. If we traded with Cleveland at 6. Knowing our luck, the Giants would take Styles at 5.

 

[Verdict]

We have holes at DE, CB, S, and a sink hole at LB. Some will say holes at LT, and TE depth.
This is why they need a few slight trades downs, to fill those holes. They added FA's, but basically replaced players lost that they did not want back. However the ones they brought in, via FA and trades are better than the ones they lost.
I believe all of this in on Parker, as Jerry allowed this, at least for this year.

Overall a slight improvement, plus what appears to be a better DC.
But they must hit on this draft. And in 2027 as well.
I do not expect any miracles, but for now if they stay healthy for once. I expect a playoff push type team, and could get a WC.
Right now I give the NFCE edge to Philly, since they won it last year. That I always do, unless that team lost a ton of top players.

The trade down is the way to go in this draft. That is such a compelling theme that even if a top graded player falls to you at 12, it is entirely possible that the trade down may still be the better move.

 

[Verdict]

Yea, would lean to staying pat or trading up. My concern now is the Giants have picks 5 and 10. If we traded with Cleveland at 6. Knowing our luck, the Giants would take Styles at 5.

Trading up would be a poor choice for the Cowboys in this particular draft. The only way that trading up makes ANY sense for the Cowboys is that this draft turns into another 2009 draft class. But I don’t think this draft class compares to 2009. This draft has talent.

 

[Jarntt]

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)

I would have guessed a little higher on this one if for no other reason than teams not wanting to give up on a first rounder. In other words, given the benefit of time that let's say a 4th rounder wouldn't have gotten. See Guyton if he craps the bed again as an example.

 

[Verdict]

The problem is that they're bad at resource allocation, and their strategy is not comprehensive.

They're terrible at signing FAs because they lowball in an attempt to preserve money/cap.

But then they'll trade draft resources away for a guy like GP who they're going to have to pay anyway. So instead of paying FAs they double pay on these trades, or just lose the draft pick entirely.

That doesn't make sense.

1. You are correct that the Cowboys are very poor at resource allocation in terms of cap allocation. That’s hardly even debatable at this point.

2. The Pickens trade was a very good trade for the Cowboys. The return so far on Pickens is like an internet stock that has boomed.

The question as I see as to Pickens are we going to buy more of that stock at a higher price hoping for even greater return, or selling at a profit and looking for the next Pickens?

I would trade Pickens. If not then the tag is the way to go. Don’t pay Pickens $35-$40m per year when you can make him play for $27-$28M.

3. I think the Cowboys ownership MAY have wised up slightly over the years and learned their lesson on setting the market on their own players. They are not giving in to Pickens. They did not cave to Parsons.

It’s a VERY small sample size, but the Cowboys may be wising up just a little on these overpay contracts.

 

[Verdict]

The team doesn't have the organizational talent to build a Super Bowl contender through free agency or the draft. We just traded a HOF talent for draft picks and gave the savings to Daron Bland in what is regarded around the league as the worst defensive contract in the NFL. That's just who we are.

The Bland contract is another example of what I have been saying for years. Nice player but an overpay.