poke said:
i voted that no he wont. i voted that way because:
3. i was at that game with my kids and i would love for them to be able
to tell people for years to come that they were there when the record was set.
Won't you still be able to tell them for years to come that you were there even if Martin breaks the record?
Sorry, but "I don't want him to break it because I like Emmitt" is not a reason. (Don't take it as if I'm picking on you, poke, because I'm not. You weren't the only one who said this.)
Curtis Martin needs roughly 998 yards the next five years to break Emmitt's record.
It's certainly doable, but I say he misses it for these reasons.
1. Curtis Martin has needed more carries a season (330) in less years (10) than Emmitt to even get close to him. Emmitt's average over 10 years is 293 carries a season. Martin's carries last year (371) were the most he's ever carried. Emmitt's highest number of carries (377) came in his most productive season (1,773) and that came is his fifth season.
Martin's came in his 10th season.
After that big year, Emmitt's numbers (with a brief spike in 1998 and 1999) began to decline. And remember, that was in his fifth year.
Now Martin may be a marvel, but in his 10th year after hauling the ball 371 times, I'd say the wall is going to hit him rather fast.
2. Running backs over 30 quickly go down hill. The wall both Emmitt and Marshall Faulk, particularly Marshall, hit was brutal. One year Marshall went from being this super quick dart to a shadow of himself. He's basically on his way out. And I never saw him take a direct shot. I think Martin is going to hit a similar wall, especially with the load he has just carried for the Jets.
3. Running backs are a dime a dozen now.
The Jets just lost LaMont Jordan, who was suppose to be Martin's heir apparent. But it's not hard to find capable running backs. And teams prefer fresh legs. If the Jets are able to get an Adrian Peterson, a Reggie Bush or a DeAnglo Williams, you can bet they're going to use those backs and bring Martin in for a breather. With such a pace, I doubt he's going to get enough carries to break Smith's record.
The only caveat here is if Martin has a monster year next year and repeats a similar 1,600 rushing yards performance followed by about a 1,000 season in 2006-07. That would leave him roughtly 2,300 yards short of Emmitt. I can envision the Jets, then, keeping him around for a few years as a "spell" back in hopes he could overtake Emmitt. All this depends, of course, on his health and his desire.
I'm hoping that it doesn't happen because Emmitt is a Cowboy, and I want a Cowboy to hold the record as long as possible. But it's doable even though I don't think it will be done.
