dwmyers;1416477 said:
(1) Bill James says it's idiotic to attempt to look at a batter's stats unless he has at least 250 attempts. Otherwise, randomness gets in the way.
Being a fan of a certain player can get in the way too. "Random," for me, would be two good games, one bad one, three good ones, two bad ones, and so on. Jones' ypc kept going down until his carries were drastically decreased. That isn't randomness, it's a steady decline.
I want to see Julius do well, and I do agree that his carries had to be cut down, but it's the drop in production per carry I'm talking about. He wasn't the same back in the second half of the season.
dwmyers;1416477 said:
From my perspective, 4.1 ypc is 4.1 ypc. How many starting Parcells running backs did better?
Jones averaged 4.1 ypc while playing with six Pro Bowl or Pro Bowl calibre players on the league's 5th ranked offense. The starting RB's on the other teams in the top 5 averaged 4.9 ypc.
Of the top 10 offenses in the NFL last year, Jones' 4.1 ypc ranked 8th among starters. Only Ahman Green and Rudi Johnson had lower ypc's among top 10 offenses, and neither one of those guys had an MB3 to lighten their load for them.
By averaging at least 16.5 carries per game, Jones did something that 18 other RB's also did last year. 11 of the 18 had higher ypc's than Jones. Five of those guys (Jackson, Parker, Henry, Brown, and TBell) were on teams that didn't make the playoffs. What do you suppose any one of the five would have averaged last year in Dallas?
My guess is, in this offense, they also would've been 2nd all-time to Joe Morris on Parcells' list, but more importantly, any of them would've also been a dependable back for the stretch drive. Something Jones was not--statistically or otherwise.