Witten might be at the end of his rope

VACowboy

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,989
Reaction score
3,872
I disagree that...

1. ...Witten isn't a Hall of Famer. I think he's a first ballot lock.
2. ...Witten is at the end of his rope. He's still a nightmare matchup in coverage and still one of the best blocking TE's in the game.
3. ...Witten's role as a run blocker is a small deal compared to yards and TD's. The 2014 Cowboys are an old-school power running team, and Witten is a big part of that.
4. ...Upping free agent spending is the way to build a team. Adding a few lower tier guys for depth is one thing. Dumping a bunch of cash into free agents is another. It's never worked for anyone.

Almost all passing/receiving numbers on the team have dropped from years past. Big deal. I'm sure glad the Cowboys aren't that team anymore.
 

Galian Beast

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,735
Reaction score
7,457
Restructuring only guarantees part of the base salary for that year. As a vested veteran his salary would be guaranteed anyway if he in on the roster to start the season.

I don't think you're paying attention.

Restructuring guarantees the entire prorated amount of the salary. It merely spreads the accounting over the course of a given contract.

My argument isn't that he should be on the roster to start the season...
 

Galian Beast

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,735
Reaction score
7,457
There is not a ton of competition. There is Witten and Gates. Those two guys entered the league at the same time and will probably retire around the same time. Gates will probably retire earlier because he is two years older. Most other comtemporaries like Dallas Clark aren't even in the conversation. Even Vernon Davis isn't in the conversation. Davis is a very good tight end and he is 492 receptions behind Witten. Yes, that is correct Davis has almost 500 fewer catches than Witten and is only two years younger than Jason. Davis isn't going to get close to making up those numbers over the remainder of his career. Greg Olsen and Heath Miller have similar numbers to Vernon Davis. Neither guy will come close to Witten's totals for receptions and yards.

Younger guys won't be in the conversation because they will still be years away from HoF consideration when the committee is voting on Gates and Witten. And it won't be a large number of young guys, either. Really it will probably only be Jimmy Graham. Gronkowski probably won't last another 2 or 3 years just because his body is falling apart. Julius Thomas is benefiting from playing with Peyton Manning. How long is that going to last? I don't think it lasts long enough for Thomas to overcome his first two seasons where he totaled 1 single reception. This is Thomas 4th year. He is 26 years old and has 86 career receptions. Witten had 348 receptions before he turned 26.

No one is ignoring TDs. They just aren't making them out to be the one and only considerations. Touchdowns are important; however, they don't make a difference unless the tight end is close to Witten in terms of receptions. Gates is 158 receptions behind Witten, but he has Witten on TDs. Most of these other tight ends aren't or won't be close to Witten when it come to receptions. He will have several 100 more receptions than most of these other guys. Gates is a Hall of Famer. So is Witten.

I fail to see the ton of competition at the tight end position when Witten eventually becomes eligible for the HoF. It doesn't and won't exist.

I think you're ignoring what competition means.

I'm not saying all these tight ends are going into the HoF, it's quite the opposite.

Gonzalez will go in. Gates will go in before Witten, and Witten will have trouble because then he will be on the outside looking in. Only 8 tight ends have gone into the HoF in the modern era. They aren't about to put 4 or 5 in, and guys like Graham and Gronkowski will end up going in before Witten. They will easily eclipse his numbers by the time he is eligible.
 

Phoenix

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,814
Reaction score
1,419
I'd love to see 2 catches for exactly 47 yards this week to start things off for The Witten. That would give him 2 milestones on the same play:

900 career catches
Moves him 1 yard past the 10,060 career yards of Shannon Sharpe into #2 TE yards all time
 

xwalker

Well-Known Member
Messages
57,127
Reaction score
64,625
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
I don't think you're paying attention.

Restructuring guarantees the entire prorated amount of the salary. It merely spreads the accounting over the course of a given contract.

My argument isn't that he should be on the roster to start the season...

Example: A vested vested player has a 3 year, 4M contract.

Scenario 1:
In March, the team restructures giving him a 3M bonus and 1M base salary. This guarantees him 3M in March. When the season starts his 1M base becomes guaranteed. As of the start of the season his total guarantee is 4M.

Scenario 2:
No restructure. When the season starts his total guarantee is 4M.

Either way the guaranteed total is the same.
 

joseephuss

Well-Known Member
Messages
28,015
Reaction score
6,903
I think you're ignoring what competition means.

I'm not saying all these tight ends are going into the HoF, it's quite the opposite.

Gonzalez will go in. Gates will go in before Witten, and Witten will have trouble because then he will be on the outside looking in. Only 8 tight ends have gone into the HoF in the modern era. They aren't about to put 4 or 5 in, and guys like Graham and Gronkowski will end up going in before Witten. They will easily eclipse his numbers by the time he is eligible.

I understand what competition means. I don't see the competition at the tight end position. You start listing guys like Greg Olsen and Julius Thomas and neither provide any competition to Witten or Gates.

Just because something was done in the past means it will continue to be the same in the future. The committee doesn't have to continue to ignore the tight end position. In the past there were generally only a couple of tight ends of each generation that were HoF caliber. It really isn't different today. Gonazles has 6 years on Gates/Witten and really could be considered a separate generation. Gates and Witten will be their generation's representatives. Gronk and Graham might be their generation's top tight ends, but it may be too early to speculate they are HoF bound.

The HoF committee won't have to put 4 or 5 in at the same time. Gonzales is already retired and will inducted in 5 years. Gates will retire soon and will get inducted quickly as well.

Gronk and Graham will not easily eclipse the numbers Witten has accumulated in his career. Gronk and Graham have benefited by playing with Brady and Brees, respectively. How long is either situation going to last? Witten produced with Bledsoe and Testafreakinverde. Gronk has serious health issues.

As I said, due to health Gronk has probably 3 years left. Maybe 5 tops. He isn't going to produce the monster 90 reception years anymore. He has had significant back issues since college. People get concerned with Romo and his back problems, but Gronk has had more back problems for a longer period of time. Gronk also party's hard. I don't think he plays long enough and puts up the raw totals to get into the HoF. If Gronk does retire in the next 3 to 5 years his totals will be so far behind Witten except for TDs that he won't go into the HoF much less get in before Witten.

Or let's assume Gronk is able to stay healthy and play 10 more seasons. Witten will be retired and eligible for the HoF before Gronk even retires. Why would Witten have to wait in that scenario?

Jimmy Graham could possibly play 10 more years as well, which means Witten could be in the HoF before Graham even retires. Why would Witten have to wait on Graham? And that is assuming Graham does play another 10 years and is very productive those 10 years. Graham will be 28 in November.

It is difficult chasing the guy in front of you. Tony Gonzalez has put up some incredible totals over a very long career. Most tight ends don't play and certainly don't produce much after the age of 32. I think Witten will fall short of catching Gonzalez. No shame in that because it is a substantial difference in what Tony accumulated and what Jason accumulated. The same applies to those younger guys chasing Witten. You ignore just how many more receptions and years already put into the league that Witten has on these young guys. I doubt any of these young tight ends get close at all to Witten's reception totals. Again I fail to see the ton of competition
 

Galian Beast

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,735
Reaction score
7,457
Example: A vested vested player has a 3 year, 4M contract.

Scenario 1:
In March, the team restructures giving him a 3M bonus and 1M base salary. This guarantees him 3M in March. When the season starts his 1M base becomes guaranteed. As of the start of the season his total guarantee is 4M.

Scenario 2:
No restructure. When the season starts his total guarantee is 4M.

Either way the guaranteed total is the same.

That is a logical fallacy because my scenario was never that the player starts the regular season at the current level of compensation. Straw man argument.
 

perrykemp

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,503
Reaction score
9,274
The HoF committee won't have to put 4 or 5 in at the same time. Gonzales is already retired and will inducted in 5 years. Gates will retire soon and will get inducted quickly as well.

I think Witten eventually makes the HoF but I doubt it will be first ballot. They only put 5-7 players into the HoF each year and it looks like the TE position may be backed up a bit by the time Witten is up for consideration.

Essentially the same problem is occurring with WRs with the HoF -- so many good one waiting to get in and they are only going to put maybe 1 in a year, if that.
 

sacase

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,103
Reaction score
2,300
Again, it would only be 5 million in dead money if you didn't make him a June 1st cut.

By cutting Witten in 2015 we save the following

2015: 5.1 million
2016: 5.588
2017: 8.312 million

These numbers are all significant.

So you cut him, how do you replace his production? Sometimes people get so caught up in the "numbers" of the salary cap, they forget that they have to replace the production. Fact, good young TE's are typically not available and if they are, they come with baggage. No offense, but being on this board for as long as I have, people like you who get to caught up in the cap numbers would leave us without ANY talent and just churning rookies from the draft and UDFA all to save ourselves from the horried Salary Cap. SMH
 

zrinkill

Cowboy Fan
Messages
48,388
Reaction score
30,833
CowboysZone LOYAL Fan
This silly thread is still going?
After the way Witt has been playing this year?

If anything he is underpaid.
 

Galian Beast

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,735
Reaction score
7,457
So you cut him, how do you replace his production? Sometimes people get so caught up in the "numbers" of the salary cap, they forget that they have to replace the production. Fact, good young TE's are typically not available and if they are, they come with baggage. No offense, but being on this board for as long as I have, people like you who get to caught up in the cap numbers would leave us without ANY talent and just churning rookies from the draft and UDFA all to save ourselves from the horried Salary Cap. SMH

Have two young capable tight ends on the roster, one of which was a 2nd round draft pick. Neither is as good a blocker as witten, but both have the capacity and potential to be better receivers than him, especially in the red zone.
 

jobberone

Kane Ala
Messages
54,219
Reaction score
19,659
Have two young capable tight ends on the roster, one of which was a 2nd round draft pick. Neither is as good a blocker as witten, but both have the capacity and potential to be better receivers than him, especially in the red zone.

How many receptions does he average per year? As long as he gets 60-70 receptions he will be hard to replace; esp since he generally gets more.
 

joseephuss

Well-Known Member
Messages
28,015
Reaction score
6,903
How many receptions does he average per year? As long as he gets 60-70 receptions he will be hard to replace; esp since he generally gets more.

Witten has averaged 4.99 receptions per game for his career. Jimmy Graham averages 5.00 receptions per game for his career. Gronk averages 4.45. Tony Gonzalez averaged 4.91.
 

jobberone

Kane Ala
Messages
54,219
Reaction score
19,659
Witten has averaged 4.99 receptions per game for his career. Jimmy Graham averages 5.00 receptions per game for his career. Gronk averages 4.45. Tony Gonzalez averaged 4.91.

Well, isn't that interesting. Best keep him I suppose.
 

joseephuss

Well-Known Member
Messages
28,015
Reaction score
6,903
The Patriots are having no troubles replacing the receptions by Hernandez or Welker.
 

TellerMorrow34

BraveHeartFan
Messages
28,358
Reaction score
5,076
The OP was well thought out and the case was presented well by Beast.

I personally don't agree but I'm definitely bias when it comes to Witten as he's my favorite player on this team. I do not want him cut. I think he is better at what he's doing than anyone in the league. He is a better blocker and he's done a great job, and will continue to do so, of making plays when we need it in the passing game.
 
Top