Witten might be at the end of his rope

[FuzzyLumpkins]

i am talking about sane, logical people my bad for including you.

Ad hominem is the usual resort of those with no leg to stand on.

Is the dead money a sunk cost or not? You don't argue that so we both know that you know that to be the case. If it is a sunk cost that we cannot recoup it should have no effect on what we decide to do moving forward.

Calling me 'insane' and posturing behind that bluster is not going to make quibbling over spilled milk stop being a poor way of doing business.

 

[Idgit]

You've conflated two different things.

I said Witten's production doesn't warrant paying him 8 million dollars per year.

Seperately I said that Witten will have a harder time getting into the HoF than many fans think and I've listed many reasons for it. First and foremost is the reality that tight ends in general have trouble getting into the HoF. Following that Witten has so much competition, and that he falls short in TDs... I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it in.

Pretty sure I didn't conflate anything. The $8M/year number doesn't enter into anything I'm saying.

Nor did it follow from Goselin's article that Witten has competition or that he falls short on TDs. Those are just things you happen to believe. I believe Gonzalez is a lock for first-ballot HoFer, and Witten, with 1,000 receptions before it's done, will follow him in as a relatively early-ballot enshrinee, assuming he doesn't pass Gonzalez outright. Last I'd heard, he was ahead of Gonzalez' pace.

 

[Galian Beast]

Normally I'd agree but Witten is set up to do so without issue.
You aren't pushing large amounts of money around but you are pushing enough to make it desirable.

Where hardhead has a point is that in cutting a guy you eat cost anyway.
So you have to make the best possible decision.
In this case reducing the cap hit to under 6m while pushing 4m forward is perfectly logical.

In 2015, Witten will only have 3 years left on his deal.

The minimum salary will be 970k. So let's say you maximize the restructure.

You would take his 5.1 million base salary subtract 970k and that would give you: 4.13 million. You would then divide 4.13 million into 3, this would give you an annual proration of: 1,376,667.

You would then add 1.377 million to 970k. This would give you a total of 2.347 million.

In other words you would only save 2.753 million by restructuring Witten, but all you're doing is moving that into future years, subtracting from what you can do in 2016 and 2017, for modest cap relief in 2015. And then you would have to start looking at risk of injury in advanced age.

It's not worth it.

 

[jterrell]

They didn't play in the same era, Witten's rookie year was Sharpe's last year in the NFL. Passing rules changed tremendously over the last 10 years, helping expand tight ends and their role in offenses.

Again, you can't compare Sharpe and Witten, their numbers are irrelevant.

Tight ends with more touchdowns than witten

Tony Gonzalez
Antonio Gates
Shannon Sharpe
Vernon Davis
Dallas Clark

Tight ends that will soon eclipse Witten in touchdowns

Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham

Eventually
Julius Thomas

Maybe even Greg Olsen

If you want to compare him to WRs, he doesn't even make the list in Touchdowns...

Sorry but Sharpe and Witten are from the same era.
Sharpe had 240 of his catches in the 2000s.
He was the original split out TE. He isn't really even a true TE like Witten.
In fact none of your list of guys with more TDs than Witten is.
Those guys are all WRs playing TE.

Guys who will pass Witten remains to be seen, He isn't done and those guys have to stay healthy.
Since the start of the 2013 season Witten and Gronk are actually tied in TD catches.

End of the day it really won't be close.
At some point that will become clear to you.

And yes amongst all positions Witten is on the board tied for 100th in TD catches. He will pass multiple people every TD he scores for the rest of his career --tho some guys will surpass him as well.

 

[Galian Beast]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...boys-jason-witten-make-it-to-the-hall-of-fame

59% sided against Witten for whatever that is worth.

Take the homer shades off and realize that Witten's lack of touchdown production will hurt his chances. It's really that simple. No WR is getting into the HoF with just receptions and yards, no reason to think a tight end would. Especially a TE with no super bowl ring.

 

[Galian Beast]

If I'm Jerry Jones, I tell Romo and Witten that they both need to take pay cuts next year to help this team get a super bowl otherwise, Witten is getting cut either in 2015 or 2016, and Romo isn't that far behind him.

This team is more important than Romo and Witten.

 

[jterrell]

In 2015, Witten will only have 3 years left on his deal.

The minimum salary will be 970k. So let's say you maximize the restructure.

You would take his 5.1 million base salary subtract 970k and that would give you: 4.13 million. You would then divide 4.13 million into 3, this would give you an annual proration of: 1,376,667.

You would then add 1.377 million to 970k. This would give you a total of 2.347 million.

In other words you would only save 2.753 million by restructuring Witten, but all you're doing is moving that into future years, subtracting from what you can do in 2016 and 2017, for modest cap relief in 2015. And then you would have to start looking at risk of injury in advanced age.

It's not worth it.

2.75M is significant but it's not enormous. That amount will fit one of our resigned LBs fine imho.
It is the right amount to move precisely because it allows some cap relief without overburdening future years.

It certainly makes more sense then eating 5m in dead money to cut the guy when he is clearly your best TE.
That'd just be silly.

 

[jterrell]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...boys-jason-witten-make-it-to-the-hall-of-fame

59% sided against Witten for whatever that is worth.

Take the homer shades off and realize that Witten's lack of touchdown production will hurt his chances. It's really that simple. No WR is getting into the HoF with just receptions and yards, no reason to think a tight end would. Especially a TE with no super bowl ring.

bro, that is from 2012 and that makes it fairly silly to argue has anything of relevance for today when he is passing legends weekly it seems.
the fact they were asking that question before Dez could start for us is telling.

Witten is a shoo-in as any current article would relate.

 

[Galian Beast]

2.75M is significant but it's not enormous. That amount will fit one of our resigned LBs fine imho.
It is the right amount to move precisely because it allows some cap relief without overburdening future years.

It certainly makes more sense then eating 5m in dead money to cut the guy when he is clearly your best TE.
That'd just be silly.

Again, it would only be 5 million in dead money if you didn't make him a June 1st cut.

By cutting Witten in 2015 we save the following

2015: 5.1 million
2016: 5.588
2017: 8.312 million

These numbers are all significant.

 

[Galian Beast]

bro, that is from 2012 and that makes it fairly silly to argue has anything of relevance for today when he is passing legends weekly it seems.
the fact they were asking that question before Dez could start for us is telling.

Witten is a shoo-in as any current article would relate.

Nothing in the last two years has changed any argument made in this discussion.

 

[jobberone]

Witten should go in on the first ballot just as Gonzalez will. He has 52 TDs now. Sharpe had 62.

 

[jobberone]

Nothing in the last two years has changed any argument made in this discussion.

Well, JMO, but you need to reconsider. You're way out on a limb almost by yourself.

 

[jterrell]

Nothing in the last two years has changed any argument made in this discussion.

actually every bit of changes. witten had far fewer TDs. he had far fewer catches, he had far fewer yards.
every pro argument gets stronger and every anti argument weaker.

even the gronk bits since witten has as many TDs the past two seasons with more everything else.

again any article you find present day will credit him as a shoo in hall of famer.
it really is just common sense.

 

[jterrell]

Again, it would only be 5 million in dead money if you didn't make him a June 1st cut.

By cutting Witten in 2015 we save the following

2015: 5.1 million
2016: 5.588
2017: 8.312 million

These numbers are all significant.

those numbers are not significant enough to cut witten and go with escobar and hanna at TE.
not when we are basing everything off a running game and need the blocking.

in 2015 you'd save all of 2.4 m by cutting him as opposed to restructuring him.
you can not get a TE near Witten in here for that price.

the 8.3 in 2017 is pointless because he won't see that anyways.
How he fares the rest of this year and next will determine 2016 but 2017 is an astronomical long shot.

 

[Lonestar94]

The WR equivalent to Witten, Andre Johnson has 61 tds to Wittens 52 and both were drafted in 2003. Johnson is a first round hall of famer and the same can be said for Witten.

TDs don't tell the whole story and are often not the players fault.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

The same people said Ware would never be cut.

I'll reiterate, there is no way Witten is worth 8 million per year. And yes it is 8 million per year, it isn't just about his 2015 base salary, because it isn't just about 2015. It's about 2015-2017 and it's about having invested resources behind him to help make up the difference. It's about needing that money to go towards the defense.

As for Witten making the hall of fame, I think you overestimate how many Tight Ends make it into the NFL and you overlook the fact that Witten's touchdown numbers are anemic compared to other tight ends of this era.

I've never bean won of them Romo-Witten acolytes who say, they say: "They can do know wrong!"
But . .. is Witten worth 8 mil per year? A better question would be, based on his contributions to the team and to Romo's QB rating, I would say 8 a year is not only for current services but what he half done.

Bless Witten and I say, "Compared to others on this team without a sterling track record and dubious current contributions, I'd rather you half the money than they."

 

[John813]

I don't mind cutting Witten, as much as it pains me to say that, when we have a suitable replacement.

At this time, we do not have a suitable replacement. Potentially we have one in Escobar, and small chance in Hanna, but they have yet to earn Romo's or the coaches trust for more gametime/looks in the passing game.

Witten hasn't been used a lot so far, but as the season goes on he may get more opportunities to be the focal point of the offensive gameplan.

 

[xwalker]

In 2015, Witten will only have 3 years left on his deal.

The minimum salary will be 970k. So let's say you maximize the restructure.

You would take his 5.1 million base salary subtract 970k and that would give you: 4.13 million. You would then divide 4.13 million into 3, this would give you an annual proration of: 1,376,667.

You would then add 1.377 million to 970k. This would give you a total of 2.347 million.

In other words you would only save 2.753 million by restructuring Witten, but all you're doing is moving that into future years, subtracting from what you can do in 2016 and 2017, for modest cap relief in 2015. And then you would have to start looking at risk of injury in advanced age.

It's not worth it.

Restructuring only guarantees part of the base salary for that year. As a vested veteran his salary would be guaranteed anyway if he in on the roster to start the season.

 

[cowboyuptx]

Witten still gets open against vastly superior athletes. His game isn't dependent on his physical abilities, per se.

This....

Also Witten is our best leader, still has one of the best motors on the team, maybe the highest football IQ on the team, maybe the toughest player on the team, never gets hurt, and is as sure-handed as they come, oh and he is blocking better than ever... Witten can play on this team as long as he wants imo... I blame Jerry for continuing to waste high picks on TE's that were never going to emerge from the shadow of the future HOFer... As for now, Witten is playing his role perfectly in this versatile offense chalked full of playmakers...

 

[joseephuss]

It's not just about numbers, and I like how everyone ignores the fact that he is severely lacking in TDs.

Not many tight ends go into the HOF and he has a ton of competition. It's not a slam dunk, and if you think it is, you're being a homer.

There is not a ton of competition. There is Witten and Gates. Those two guys entered the league at the same time and will probably retire around the same time. Gates will probably retire earlier because he is two years older. Most other comtemporaries like Dallas Clark aren't even in the conversation. Even Vernon Davis isn't in the conversation. Davis is a very good tight end and he is 492 receptions behind Witten. Yes, that is correct Davis has almost 500 fewer catches than Witten and is only two years younger than Jason. Davis isn't going to get close to making up those numbers over the remainder of his career. Greg Olsen and Heath Miller have similar numbers to Vernon Davis. Neither guy will come close to Witten's totals for receptions and yards.

Younger guys won't be in the conversation because they will still be years away from HoF consideration when the committee is voting on Gates and Witten. And it won't be a large number of young guys, either. Really it will probably only be Jimmy Graham. Gronkowski probably won't last another 2 or 3 years just because his body is falling apart. Julius Thomas is benefiting from playing with Peyton Manning. How long is that going to last? I don't think it lasts long enough for Thomas to overcome his first two seasons where he totaled 1 single reception. This is Thomas 4th year. He is 26 years old and has 86 career receptions. Witten had 348 receptions before he turned 26.

No one is ignoring TDs. They just aren't making them out to be the one and only considerations. Touchdowns are important; however, they don't make a difference unless the tight end is close to Witten in terms of receptions. Gates is 158 receptions behind Witten, but he has Witten on TDs. Most of these other tight ends aren't or won't be close to Witten when it come to receptions. He will have several 100 more receptions than most of these other guys. Gates is a Hall of Famer. So is Witten.

I fail to see the ton of competition at the tight end position when Witten eventually becomes eligible for the HoF. It doesn't and won't exist.