Witten might be at the end of his rope

[jterrell]

I thought Witten blocked pretty poorly week 1 and noted that.
All that said he has been outstanding the past couple games.
I do not think he is a top receiving threat but as part of our developing run game and with enough receiving ability to punish teams who load up to stop the run he is pretty friggin good.

 

[Galian Beast]

The article says Sharpe only waited 3 years and Witten is going to smash all of his records. You go long on assertions and don't have the faintest clue to provide supporting arguments.

I guess you just like the attention or something.

Shannon Sharpe even has more touchdowns than Witten, and he played in an era where the tight end wasn't as predominant a receiving option.

He also has three super bowl rings.

Like I said it's not all about the numbers, they do matter, but you have to look at the entire picture.

Witten 0 super bowl rings, half the touchdown production of his peers. You can ignore that all you want though.

 

[Galian Beast]

Appreciate the info (your correct) but not gonna pile on cus I've been there Witten is a keeper @ 5 (albeit a step slower) esp considering his improved run blocking and this style of offense swaying towards the run game much more. Can still sit in the zones and has hands. But see his point if it was 8+ and GB had thought that was his number initially, etc.

FuzzyLumpkins has ignored everything I said in this topic. Please see the 13th post of this thread.

 

[jterrell]

You've conflated two different things.

I said Witten's production doesn't warrant paying him 8 million dollars per year.

Seperately I said that Witten will have a harder time getting into the HoF than many fans think and I've listed many reasons for it. First and foremost is the reality that tight ends in general have trouble getting into the HoF. Following that Witten has so much competition, and that he falls short in TDs... I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it in.

You are correct IMHO to judge him at 8m if that's the cap hit. His cost to the team is just that, his cap hit, not his base.
Especially since his base changes the the minimum almost every year anyways.

But you'd be incorrect about in the Hall of Fame.
Yes, TE have had issues getting in.
That is because they didn't catch enough passes or have any statistical leverage to argue for their inclusion.
Witten has no issues there.
He is 3rd in active players for receptions. 17th overall. He'll hit 900 next week in all likelihood.
He is 7th in active receiving yards and 41st overall.
It is likely Witten passes Irvin for most receiving yards by a Cowboy.

Both numbers are climbing now rapidly.
Gonzales and Gates will get in as receiving options.
Witten will get in because he has elite receiving numbers and people know he can block too.
He's made a zillion pro bowls and been All Pro more than once.
He has an elite resume with a team who will champion him.

 

[jterrell]

FuzzyLumpkins has ignored everything I said in this topic. Please see the 13th post of this thread.

There is not a single Tight End with more catches or yards receiving not in the Hall of Fame except Gonzales who is simply waiting out the period to be eligible.
At one point Witten was questionable but not as he climbs the all time lists for catches and yards.
Of TE who can even begin to block he is by far the best receiver in the history of the game.
Sharpe, Gonzales and Gates are all pedestrian to poor blockers.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I said Witten's production doesn't warrant paying him 8 million dollars per year.

Witten is making $5m this year. You repeating the cap hit does not change that. You heard of sunk costs?

I don't care about your guesses as to HoF viability and I have argued the two issues separately. That article still did not support your listed reasons. He still only makes $5.1m this year.

 

[Galian Beast]

You are correct IMHO to judge him at 8m if that's the cap hit. His cost to the team is just that, his cap hit, not his base.
Especially since his base changes the the minimum almost every year anyways.

But you'd be incorrect about in the Hall of Fame.
Yes, TE have had issues getting in.
That is because they didn't catch enough passes or have any statistical leverage to argue for their inclusion.
Witten has no issues there.
He is 3rd in active players for receptions. 17th overall. He'll hit 900 next week in all likelihood.
He is 7th in active receiving yards and 41st overall.
It is likely Witten passes Irvin for most receiving yards by a Cowboy.

Both numbers are climbing now rapidly.
Gonzales and Gates will get in as receiving options.
Witten will get in because he has elite receiving numbers and people know he can block too.
He's made a zillion pro bowls and been All Pro more than once.
He has an elite resume with a team who will champion him.

Like I said, you can't ignore Witten's lack of TDs. Yes, Tight Ends are going to be looked at as receivers from now on, and that might have helped them more if it hadn't become a much larger passing league.

They'll still be compared to WRs who are breaking tons of records as well.

You can't compare previous eras to this era, and say x player will get in because he broke a previous players records and they're in the HoF. It just doesn't work like that. There are plenty of tight ends with better numbers than HoF tight end numbers, but they'll never sniff Canton.

The league has evolved, and Witten has a ton of competition at the TE position not only from predecessors, but his peers, and his successors. I don't think you guys realize how difficult it is to get into the hall of fame.

Michael Irvin won 3 super bowls and was not a first ballot Hall of Famer. That isn't just because of his off the field stuff, but also because his numbers aren't that great.

Witten has receptions and yards, and no other real accomplishments. It's going to be difficult for him, a lot more than you guys are willing to admit.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

FuzzyLumpkins has ignored everything I said in this topic. Please see the 13th post of this thread.

Repeating this still does not make it true. Please name the specific arguments I have dropped. I will demonstrate how I have responded to them.

Like I said before you go long on assertions and do not even attempt to give supporting arguments.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You are correct IMHO to judge him at 8m if that's the cap hit. His cost to the team is just that, his cap hit, not his base.
Especially since his base changes the the minimum almost every year anyways.

If you want to judge in hindsight that all the restructures etc that have gone before were bad business decisions then fine. That still doesn't mean that the dead money goes away.

He is only scheduled to make $5m this year. If you cut him you still accelerate more than $3m in dead money he is currently accounted for and you still only 'save' $5m in salary.

To cut him on that basis seems like the cliche biting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Only if you ignore those hurdles...

Nice sophistry. Just throw that **** against the wall and see what sticks.

 

[Galian Beast]

If you want to judge in hindsight that all the restructures etc that have gone before were bad business decisions then fine. That still doesn't mean that the dead money goes away.

He is only scheduled to make $5m this year. If you cut him you still accelerate more than $3m in dead money he is currently accounted for and you still only 'save' $5m in salary.

To cut him on that basis seems like the cliche biting off your nose to spite your face.

Still ignoring that 2015 doesn't live in a bubble... Sad...

 

[jterrell]

Like I said, you can't ignore Witten's lack of TDs. Yes, Tight Ends are going to be looked at as receivers from now on, and that might have helped them more if it hadn't become a much larger passing league.

They'll still be compared to WRs who are breaking tons of records as well.

You can't compare previous eras to this era, and say x player will get in because he broke a previous players records and they're in the HoF. It just doesn't work like that. There are plenty of tight ends with better numbers than HoF tight end numbers, but they'll never sniff Canton.

The league has evolved, and Witten has a ton of competition at the TE position not only from predecessors, but his peers, and his successors. I don't think you guys realize how difficult it is to get into the hall of fame.

Michael Irvin won 3 super bowls and was not a first ballot Hall of Famer. That isn't just because of his off the field stuff, but also because his numbers aren't that great.

Witten has receptions and yards, and no other real accomplishments. It's going to be difficult for him, a lot more than you guys are willing to admit.

Again to be clear I am not comparing Witten to Hall of Fame tight ends beyond Shannon Sharpe.
Those guys played in the same era.

And yes even when considering WR Witten's numbers are flat outstanding.
His receptions and receiving yards I didn't even measure for TE alone.

You are overstating his TD count issue.
He has 52 and Sharpe only had 65. After Gates and Gonzales no one else at TE comes close to those lofty triple digit TD numbers.

I promise you he is a Hall of Fame lock.
He'd have an argument as a pure WR but everyone knows he is also a plus blocker.
He will have zero issue getting in with media loving the guy.
His off the field stuff will only help him.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Still ignoring that 2015 doesn't live in a bubble... Sad...

He makes $6.5m in 2016 and $7m in 2017. Those sunk costs are still sunk in those years too.

Try harder.

 

[jterrell]

If you want to judge in hindsight that all the restructures etc that have gone before were bad business decisions then fine. That still doesn't mean that the dead money goes away.

He is only scheduled to make $5m this year. If you cut him you still accelerate more than $3m in dead money he is currently accounted for and you still only 'save' $5m in salary.

To cut him on that basis seems like the cliche biting off your nose to spite your face.

When you look at player cost you look at cap hit.
That's really pretty simple for anyone to follow.
When we pay a guy 20m in SB we don't say OMG we paid him 20m for this year.
It doesn't work that way.
The player costs what he costs versus the cap.

I am not talking about cutting Witten.
Witten has a perfect set up to restructure. His base of 5m can be split over three years and he will then cost ~5.8m which is right for the player.
Since he isn't owed big money going forward it isn't very risky. His total pro-ration would only be about 6m.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

When you look at player cost you look at cap hit.
That's really pretty simple for anyone to follow.
When we pay a guy 20m in SB we don't say OMG we paid him 20m for this year.
It doesn't work that way.
The player costs what he costs versus the cap.

I am not talking about cutting Witten.
Witten has a perfect set up to restructure. His base of 5m can be split over three years and he will then cost ~5.8m which is right for the player.
Since he isn't owed big money going forward it isn't very risky. His total pro-ration would only be about 6m.

Speak for yourself please. You look at cap hit. I look at what we can do by making moves and don't quibble over sunk costs i cannot change.

When making business or investment decisions, individuals and organizations typically look at the future costs that they may incur, by following a certain strategy. A company that has spent $5 million building a factory that is not yet complete, has to consider the $5 million sunk, since it cannot get the money back. It must decide whether continuing construction to complete the project will help the company regain the sunk cost, or whether it should walk away from the incomplete project.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sunkcost.asp

 

[Galian Beast]

Again to be clear I am not comparing Witten to Hall of Fame tight ends beyond Shannon Sharpe.
Those guys played in the same era.

And yes even when considering WR Witten's numbers are flat outstanding.
His receptions and receiving yards I didn't even measure for TE alone.

You are overstating his TD count issue.
He has 52 and Sharpe only had 65. After Gates and Gonzales no one else at TE comes close to those lofty triple digit TD numbers.

I promise you he is a Hall of Fame lock.
He'd have an argument as a pure WR but everyone knows he is also a plus blocker.
He will have zero issue getting in with media loving the guy.
His off the field stuff will only help him.

They didn't play in the same era, Witten's rookie year was Sharpe's last year in the NFL. Passing rules changed tremendously over the last 10 years, helping expand tight ends and their role in offenses.

Again, you can't compare Sharpe and Witten, their numbers are irrelevant.

Tight ends with more touchdowns than witten

Tony Gonzalez
Antonio Gates
Shannon Sharpe
Vernon Davis
Dallas Clark

Tight ends that will soon eclipse Witten in touchdowns

Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham

Eventually
Julius Thomas

Maybe even Greg Olsen

If you want to compare him to WRs, he doesn't even make the list in Touchdowns...

 

[Galian Beast]

I would argue against restructuring any players contract over the age of 30 at this point.

Witten doesn't have enough years on his contract to even make restructuring worth it.

You want to get younger and cheaper, not older and more expensive.

 

[jterrell]

Speak for yourself please. You look at cap hit. I look at what we can do by making moves and don't quibble over sunk costs i cannot change.



http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sunkcost.asp

i am talking about sane, logical people my bad for including you.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's funny. A guy that actually votes for the HoF and lobbies regarding it regularly lays out what hurdles Witten has and he doesn't mention TDs.

Maybe if you keep waving your hands at TD and ignoring the rest it will suddenly make it significant enough to matter. You probably are one of those that raises his voice in place of real rebuttal.

 

[jterrell]

I would argue against restructuring any players contract over the age of 30 at this point.

Witten doesn't have enough years on his contract to even make restructuring worth it.

You want to get younger and cheaper, not older and more expensive.

Normally I'd agree but Witten is set up to do so without issue.
You aren't pushing large amounts of money around but you are pushing enough to make it desirable.

Where hardhead has a point is that in cutting a guy you eat cost anyway.
So you have to make the best possible decision.
In this case reducing the cap hit to under 6m while pushing 4m forward is perfectly logical.