Worst Case Scenario

[Brother Ali]

Dude, you are clueless. You obviously have 0 idea of what you are talking about. Alualu had a phenomenal year..he absolutely justified being picked 10th..

Oh okay.

 

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Dude, you are clueless. You obviously have 0 idea of what you are talking about. Alualu had a phenomenal year..he absolutely justified being picked 10th..

lmao... just a little harsh.

But yes, Alualu played very well this year...

 

[Brother Ali]

Big Jag fans in here eh?

 

[casmith07]

Prince Amukamara.

 

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Big Jag fans in here eh?

Actually, NFL fans. How about you watch some games and stop talking out of your ***?

So, based on your logic, Asomugha has 3 picks in 4 years, but he's no good.

 

[Brother Ali]

Prince Amukamara.

That's one I could see. Not sure how high we are on him though.

 

[Brother Ali]

Actually, NFL fans. How about you watch some games and stop talking out of your ***?

So, based on your logic, Asomugha has 3 picks in 4 years, but he's no good.

Awful comparison. Try again hothead.

 

[CanuckCowboysFan]

Awful comparison. Try again hothead.

:laugh2: :laugh2:

No it's not. You gave me Alualus stats and somehow came to the conclusion that he had a down year and was a waste at 10.

Aso's stats on paper are horrible. What does that say about him?

FIO. :laugh2: :laugh2:

 

[DFWJC]

Okay, Peterson and Quinn are off the board before the 6th pick. No one wants to trade up to the 9th pick and we are essentially stuck.

Do you reach for a player or do we take significantly less trade value just to get out of that spot?

I think alot of us are assuming that we can just easily trade back if we don't get our player. But it takes alot for that to happen.

Thoughts?

You make a lot of assumptions here.

For starters, there are about 12-15 players that routinely show up in the 1st 9 slots in mocks. Peterson is almost always there, Quinn...maybe 60% of the time.

For example, Mayock has Quinn as the 5-6th rated DE/OLB. That means he is late 1st round in his book. I don't agree, but the point is that Quinn is no lock. I just pulled up randon mocks and Quinn was in the top 9 in 1 of them only. There were 16 different players in the top 9.

Now seeing that nearly 30-40% of the league could use a QB, that would be valuable if none have been taken right away.

Anyway, I see the 9th slot being valuable and think if we did decide to trade down, we could get fair value.

 

[Trace1015]

Amukamara and ill be happy

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

It could be worse, we could be Cavs fans

 

[DFWJC]

he more than justified his pick at #10

Alualu was outstanding for a rookie this year. The Jags are ecstatic over this guy and they absolutely proved some of the so called experts wrong.

The followed their board and landed a all-rookie player and 10 year starter.

 

[DFWJC]

Justin Houston has two failed drug tests. I'd consider him a reach at 9.

Me too...

After looking a random sampling of mocks, here are the 16 players that I saw picked at least once in the top 9:
Fairly
Bowers
Peterson
Green
Dareus
Amukamara
Gabbert
Miller
Jordan
Quinn
Newton
Jones
Watt
Heyward
Paea
Solder
Locker

I sure if the sample was bigger, a few more would slip in there too.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Me too...

After looking a random sampling of mocks, here are the 16 players that I saw picked at least once in the top 9:
Fairly
Bowers
Peterson
Green
Dareus
Amukamara
Gabbert
Miller
Jordan
Quinn
Newton
Jones
Watt
Heyward
Paea
Solder
Locker

I sure if the sample was bigger, a few more would slip in there too.

You can safely scratch Paea, Heyward, and Watt

I have heard Aldon Smith could be a riser

 

[TheCount]

I think the word reach needs to be separated from what a player goes on to do. When I say someone reached for a player, it has zero baring on what he then goes onto do in the NFL.

If we had taken Ratliff in the 1st round of the draft the year he came out, that would have still been a major reach.

He goes onto have several pro bowl seasons and become a great player, that doesn't change the fact that you absolutely took a shot in the dark on a player you felt strongly about for whatever reason.

Now if we had taken Ratliff as our first pick in 2005, we would have completely missed out on Ware. Would taking Ratliff in the 1st in that case have justified the reach, even if he turned out to be a good player? Absolutely not.

In the end, all that matters about a pick is how they do in the NFL. None of the predraft crap matters if a player goes on to stink or be great. That doesn't remove reaches and bargains from the draft process.

 

[rash]

^well said

 

[Arch Stanton]

I think the word reach needs to be separated from what a player goes on to do. When I say someone reached for a player, it has zero baring on what he then goes onto do in the NFL.

If we had taken Ratliff in the 1st round of the draft the year he came out, that would have still been a major reach.

He goes onto have several pro bowl seasons and become a great player, that doesn't change the fact that you absolutely took a shot in the dark on a player you felt strongly about for whatever reason.

Now if we had taken Ratliff as our first pick in 2005, we would have completely missed out on Ware. Would taking Ratliff in the 1st in that case have justified the reach, even if he turned out to be a good player? Absolutely not.

In the end, all that matters about a pick is how they do in the NFL. None of the predraft crap matters if a player goes on to stink or be great. That doesn't remove reaches and bargains from the draft process.

One man's reach is another man's bargain. And so it goes for the teams and their draft boards.

 

[burmafrd]

If your board had him higher and he ended up producing as you had hoped, then its not a reach. And even a reach is defensible if it is not an insane one (i.e as Q was)

 

[DFWJC]

If your board had him higher and he ended up producing as you had hoped, then its not a reach. And even a reach is defensible if it is not an insane one (i.e as Q was)

True!

Honor your board.
In the case of Alualu, he was a rapid late riser. There are those every year. The GMs try to stay under the radar in hopes of word not getting out, but there always seems to be someone going earlier than expected AND ending up being the correct pick.

Word was that both Miami and Pittsburgh were packaging deals to move up for Alualu on draft day. Jax maybe could have risked it and squeezed out more value by tading down 2-3 slots, but that would have been a gamble.

The guy became an all-rookie level player, so they are happy with what they did.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

You can safely scratch Paea, Heyward, and Watt

I have heard Aldon Smith could be a riser

Well, you guys know Smith is my pet cat. I think he's going to be one hell of a good player.