Wouldn't Welker be sweet

[durrrr]

Don't need Welker. They better improve the offensive line.

This, basically.

We have limited resources, we don't need to spend them on what would be at best a marginal upgrade at a position we're already fine at.

 

[EPL0c0]

I'd rather have Amendola

 

[Ratmatt]

I bet Romo thinks Welker would be sweet.

 

[KJJ]

At the same time, I don't think looking at what he did as a 3rd year player with Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington as his QB is a very reasonable way to assess what he could do for your team.

Most teams have QB's closer to Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington than they do Tom Brady. Pair a HOF QB with a good receiver in a scheme designed to get them the ball and that receiver will produce. Show me a HOF receiver and I'll show you a HOF QB that was throwing to them. Laurent Robinson went from a productive receiver with Romo to back to what he was before he came to Dallas in Jacksonville. JAX signed him to a nice contract based off what he did in Dallas with Romo and got screwed.

John Jefferson was one of the top WR's in the NFL in the late 70's early 80's paired up with Dan Fouts and Air Coryell. Jefferson put up 3 straight 1000+ yard seasons including 82 catches for 1340 yards and 13 TD's in 1981. He held out for more money after that season and the Chargers ended up trading him to GB. Jefferson played 5 more seasons and never produced more than 57 catches for 830 yards. He was never the same productive receiver without Fouts and Air Coryell. No one is saying Welker won't produce for another team but I don't see him putting up 100+ catches and 1300-1500 yards for anyone but NE.

If some team rolls out the brinks truck for him and he produces 60-80 catches for 650-900 yards and 3 TD's he won't be worth the contract they give him. NE knows no one will break the bank to sign him that's why they're letting him test the market. Once Welker sees he's not going to get the mega contract he's looking for he'll resign with NE.

 

[slomoxn]

What's wrong with developing Harris? He is a good talent and showed it last year, they need to stick to the game plan an continue developing young talent, Weller would be a progress stopper.

 

[Hoofbite]

Most teams have QB's closer to Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington than they do Tom Brady. Pair a HOF QB with a good receiver in a scheme designed to get them the ball and that receiver will produce.

I think it's a stretch to say most teams have closer to the season those guys had in 2006.

Not that it really matters though. If you're saying that a WR can produce more with a great QB than a really crappy one, I don't think we're breaking new ground here.

I guess where we differ is on how good we think he is. I think he's very good. There've been plenty of great QBs who have played with great WRs but it's not like these guys have 120 receptions frequently. He's got 3 of the top 10 totals in a single season.

To suggest it's entirely a scheme thing combined with playing with Brady is really ignoring a couple of things. As far as scheming is concerned for all the scheming the Patriots do in trying to get him the ball, their opponents likely try to counter that. Given he's one of the most targeted receivers in the league and that he's highly productive, I don't think there's any reason to suggest that teams don't pay a little attention to him. In terms of Brady being the reason, it's kind of hard to find another receiver that's gotten the same as Welker supposedly has. Looking at Brady himself, it's not like he putting up the same numbers before Welker and Moss showed up. Probably helps to actually have capable WRs.

Show me a HOF receiver and I'll show you a HOF QB that was throwing to them. Laurent Robinson went from a productive receiver with Romo to back to what he was before he came to Dallas in Jacksonville. JAX signed him to a nice contract based off what he did in Dallas with Romo and got screwed.

I think it's a stretch to compare the two. Perhaps if Robinson had another season or two of that quality but one season of big plays as a #2 WR is far from 6 consecutive highly productive seasons as the primary target on your team. Well, 5. He was short a few targets in 2007 when Moss had his ridiculous season.

John Jefferson was one of the top WR's in the NFL in the late 70's early 80's paired up with Dan Fouts and Air Coryell. Jefferson put up 3 straight 1000+ yard seasons including 82 catches for 1340 yards and 13 TD's in 1981. He held out for more money after that season and the Chargers ended up trading him to GB. Jefferson played 5 more seasons and never produced more than 57 catches for 830 yards. He was never the same productive receiver without Fouts and Air Coryell. No one is saying Welker won't produce for another team but I don't see him putting up 100+ catches and 1300-1500 yards for anyone but NE.

You're talking about different players. Of course it happens to some guys but that doesn't make it any more appropriate to say, "Well, this guy fizzled out so Wes Welker will do the same or is likely to do the same". One guy, ten guys, or a hundred guys fizzling out doesn't even begin to indicate that another guy will or is likely to.

You could make an argument for anything by pointing to examples like this. You could make an argument that washed up QBs are good to sign because Kurt Warner cranked his game up a notch in Arizona.

If some team rolls out the brinks truck for him and he produces 60-80 catches for 650-900 yards and 3 TD's he won't be worth the contract they give him. NE knows no one will break the bank to sign him that's why they're letting him test the market. Once Welker sees he's not going to get the mega contract he's looking for he'll resign with NE.

Well yeah. Underperforming players are rarely worth big contracts, if ever.

There's no doubt his numbers will likely not be on par with what they are in New England. Not sure anyone would expect them to be. Great QBs produce more than average and crappy QBs and the WRs are the natural beneficiaries of that. Aside from that I think he and Brady have the type of connection that turns things up a notch. Romo and Robinson appeared to have that and that's probably why nobody on Earth expected Robinson to really do anything once he left. In that sense, I don't think you can just plug in some random from around the league and expect the same results. Not sure how anyone could.

Show me a crappy QB and I'll show you a WR who doesn't have amazing numbers. Randy Moss didn't light the world on fire in Oakland. I don't think there's any doubt about it that Fitz is probably gonna finish his career with significantly less in the stats department than he would have if he played with a good QB his whole career. Pretty sure that people also know that Fitz is still one of the best WRs in the NFL, numbers or not.

The low end of your estimate is pretty much half of what he has averaged in his 6 seasons in New England. To say Brady makes him twice the player is a bit much. Deion Branch sure didn't get his 2X bonus and he has significant years inside and outside of New England.

If you think the Patriots can take just about any average WR in the NFL and get the same production from that player simply by putting him on the team, I think you've got a screw loose.

 

[Longboysfan]

The Pats are making a huge mistake by letting him test the open market. Either they will lose him or end up having to pay a kings ransom to keep him.

May be one of the reasons Brady redid his contract.

 

[jnday]

What's wrong with developing Harris? He is a good talent and showed it last year, they need to stick to the game plan an continue developing young talent, Weller would be a progress stopper.

He would be a progress stopper for Harris and Danny Coale. I think both of these WRs have a chance to become solid players. It.is easy to forget about Coale due to his injuries and lack of playing time last year.

 

[Hook'em#11]

Oh yeah..

That would be wonderful..

Maybe Dallas can call up Moss too.

Get Donald Driver too. That would work.


Who else can Dallas dig up..

I mean, this is their YEAR right? :laugh2:

 

[KJJ]

I think it's a stretch to say most teams have closer to the season those guys had in 2006.

I never said that I said most teams have QB's closer to Culpepper and Harrington than Tom Brady. In 05 with Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels the Dolphins went 9-7. The Cowboys haven't had a winning record since 09. Miami had an 1100 yard receiver in Chris Chambers that season who scored 11 TD's. They spread the ball around to 5 different receivers and Welker was their 5th leading receiver.

Not that it really matters though. If you're saying that a WR can produce more with a great QB than a really crappy one, I don't think we're breaking new ground here.

It's the QB and the system. Matt Stafford isn't a great QB but Detroit's offense revolves around getting Megatron the ball who produced 122 catches for 1964 yards but he only scored 5 TD's. Johnson doesn't have to be open to make plays which has gotten Stafford into trouble by trying to force the ball to him. Welker is used to move the chains while Detroit is thinking big plays all the time to Johnson. It's resulted in Stafford being inconsistent he completed under 60% of his passes and had a passer rating of only 79.8 in 2012.

Johnson had fewer catches and yards in 2011 but scored 16 TD's. Stafford was much more consistent by spreading the ball around more. He completed over 63% of his passes in 2011 and had a passer rating of 97.2. Detroit spread the ball around to several different receivers in 2011 instead of trying to force throws to Johnson. They had 4 receivers with over 600 yards in 2011 compared to only one in 2012. Although Welker gets a lot of balls NE has 4 other players who produce in the passing game. They spread teams out and allow Welker to find soft spots. They have a system that's hard to defend and it all starts with Brady who's great within the pocket.

I guess where we differ is on how good we think he is. I think he's very good. There've been plenty of great QBs who have played with great WRs but it's not like these guys have 120 receptions frequently. He's got 3 of the top 10 totals in a single season.

I think Welker is very good but Brady and the system NE runs makes him great. Belichick is a great coach who knows how to use a player to the best of their ability. He got more out of Randy Moss than anyone when it appeared Moss was done. He saw Welker's quickness and fit him into a scheme with other talented players that are being led by a HOF QB. Welker would produce for other teams but not to the level he's produced in NE. He wants to be paid like a #1 receiver who's putting up 100+ catches and 1300+ yards per season and he won't produce those numbers for another team. That's just my opinion based on the scheme, the QB and the talent he has around him.

To suggest it's entirely a scheme thing combined with playing with Brady is really ignoring a couple of things. As far as scheming is concerned for all the scheming the Patriots do in trying to get him the ball, their opponents likely try to counter that.

It's hard to counter it when you have a great QB like Brady who's so good within the pocket and he has receivers like Gronk, Loyd and Hernandez. They also use other quick players like Woodhead and Edelman to overload patterns. NE has a system that's very difficult to defend with the QB and receiving talent they have.

In terms of Brady being the reason, it's kind of hard to find another receiver that's gotten the same as Welker supposedly has. Looking at Brady himself, it's not like he putting up the same numbers before Welker and Moss showed up. Probably helps to actually have capable WRs.

Brady and Welker have tremendous chemistry together. Before Welker and Moss showed up in NE the NFL wasn't as pass happy a league as it is now. NE's offense evolved into more of a passing team once Belichick assembled the receiving talent to go along with Brady. Just about every QB in the league is putting up bigger numbers now than they did several years ago go check their stats. We're seeing 5000 yard passers now. In 2012 you had 12 QB's including a rookie QB pass for over 4000 yards. It's a different game now than it was 6+ years ago. You pair capable receivers with a HOF QB in a scheme designed to get them the ball and they'll produce.

I think it's a stretch to compare the two. Perhaps if Robinson had another season or two of that quality but one season of big plays as a #2 WR is far from 6 consecutive highly productive seasons as the primary target on your team. Well, 5. He was short a few targets in 2007 when Moss had his ridiculous season.

I'm not comparing the "receivers" they're totally different I'm pointing out what can happen if a receiver doesn't have the QB and the scheme to succeed. The Cowboys found a way to use Robinson effectively and he and Romo clicked. Robinson didn't produce much for Atlanta, St Louis or for JAX. He was stuck with Harrington, Redman and Leftwich his first year in Atlanta and a rookie Matt Ryan in 08. He was stuck with Bulger and Boller in St Louis in 09 and a rookie Sam Bradford in 2010. Romo is the only good, experienced QB he played with and he produced. He was incorporated amongst other good receivers and it led to a productive season for him in 2011 with the Cowboys. He moved on to JAX and was back to being the unproductive receiver he was in Atlanta and St Louis.

You're talking about different players. Of course it happens to some guys but that doesn't make it any more appropriate to say, "Well, this guy fizzled out so Wes Welker will do the same or is likely to do the same". One guy, ten guys, or a hundred guys fizzling out doesn't even begin to indicate that another guy will or is likely to.

I'm pointing out what happens when a receiver moves on from a great QB to an average one and from one scheme to another. John Jefferson was never the same receiver in GB that he was in San Diego for obvious reasons. Miami moved on from Welker so it's clear they didn't think he was anything special but Belichick had the QB and the scheme to get the most out of him. I'm confident that no other team will ever get as much out of Welker as NE. He's worth more to the Pats than any other team which is why I say he ends up staying in NE.

If you think the Patriots can take just about any average WR in the NFL and get the same production from that player simply by putting him on the team, I think you've got a screw loose.

Where did I say they could take an "average" receiver and make them productive? They couldn't do anything with Ochostinko because he was finished. Deion Branch was never as productive in Seattle as he was in NE. He only produced one 700 yard season in his 5 years with Seattle. When he returned to NE he had back to back 700 yard seasons.

 

[KJJ]

Show me a crappy QB and I'll show you a WR who doesn't have amazing numbers. Randy Moss didn't light the world on fire in Oakland. I don't think there's any doubt about it that Fitz is probably gonna finish his career with significantly less in the stats department than he would have if he played with a good QB his whole career. Pretty sure that people also know that Fitz is still one of the best WRs in the NFL, numbers or not.

That goes back to the point I made that a receiver is only as good as the QB who's throwing to them. Welker won't be as productive without Brady and NE's system just like John Jefferson wasn't as productive without Fouts and Air Coryell. I pointed out that Moss looked finished in Oakland until he was paired up with Brady and Belichick. Since leaving NE he's back to being unproductive even though he was on a SB team that was getting very good QB play because he was being used differently. It's the QB and the scheme that makes the receiver productive.

Fitz wasn't productive last season because AZ has one of the worst QB situations in the league plus he doesn't have a talented receiving corp around him. He had his 2 most productive seasons with Warner at QB and Boldin on the other side. Baltimore had great success in 2012 by spreading the ball around to Boldin and 4 other players in the passing game. A receiver is a slave to the QB and the system.

 

[DallasDW00ds0n]

Oh yeah..

That would be wonderful..

Maybe Dallas can call up Moss too.

Get Donald Driver too. That would work.


Who else can Dallas dig up..

I mean, this is their YEAR right? :laugh2:

Its not really "digging" up on Welkers case when the only guy who had more catches than you is Megatron and Megatron only had 4 more.

LOL

I feel like a lot of people honestly think Welker is not that good? Pretty crazy to say its entirely the system when Welker actually had to physically run and catch the ball 118 times last season.

 

[SkinsandTerps]

Hmmm...

Welker was/is the safety valve for Brady...now it is Gronk. Does not Witten already play that role for the Cowboys/Romo ?

 

[KJJ]

I feel like a lot of people honestly think Welker is not that good?

It's not that fans don't think he's that good they're put off by his age, the contract it would take to sign him and the fact he's thriving in a system on a real good team with a HOF QB. The Cowboys almost had three 1000 yard receivers last season they just need a reliable slot receiver not an 11 year veteran whose best years are behind him and is looking to break the bank. Danny Amemdola would be by far the best value with him you're getting a 27 year old receiver who's on the way up unlike Welker who'll cost a fortune and is on the way down.

Amendola is almost 5 years younger than Welker and produced 63 catches last season for 666 yards in 11 games on a bad team with Sam Bradford who's a long way from Tom Brady. Pair him with a productive QB and he could be producing like Welker. He would be an excellent addition that wouldn't destroy your cap and has plenty of tread on his tires. He wouldn't have to produce 100+ catches and 1300-1500 yards to live up to his contract like Welker.

 

[john van brocklin]

The Pats are making a huge mistake by letting him test the open market. Either they will lose him or end up having to pay a kings ransom to keep him.

This ....

 

[durrrr]

Pats will be fine without Welker.

 

[koolaid]

I like the idea of less Miles, but given our cap situation and the our young stars needing new contracts soon I don't think it is worth the risk. I would like to see us draft a WR with some upside in a later round.

 

[KJJ]

The Pats are making a huge mistake by letting him test the open market. Either they will lose him or end up having to pay a kings ransom to keep him.

The Pats are making a calculated gamble that no team will pay him a kings ransom because of his age and that he's viewed as a system receiver. This will enable them to resign him at a more reasonable price.

 

[KJJ]

I like the idea of less Miles, but given our cap situation and the our young stars needing new contracts soon I don't think it is worth the risk.

I like the idea too but I don't think he would be interested in leaving LSU for the Cowboys.

 

[Kristen82]

The Pats are making a huge mistake by letting him test the open market. Either they will lose him or end up having to pay a kings ransom to keep him.

Or they'll sign another pretty good slot guy in Amendola, plus Boldin can play the slot too.