WR In the First Round Is a Horrible Idea

[FuzzyLumpkins]

This is all fine and dandy but it tells us nothing. We also need to know (1) the bust rate of WRs taken in the later rounds, (2) the overall value of WRs taken in the 1st round and later rounds (to get a sense of the possible returns, because determingin risk without knowledge of returns is useless), (3) the bust rate of other positions taken in the 1st and later rounds, (4) the overall value of other positions etc., etc., etc...

I think you get the point, which is: Determining whether taking a WR in the 1st is wise or not would be a massive undertaking. I'm sure that scouting departments have actually done so, and the fact that they continue to draft WRs in the 1st round is indicative of their view of the results.

You can be reductionist if you wish and go for every minutae but that does not make my interpretation crap.

The best would probably be to break the draft into tiers, 5 picks each, and evaluate the players drafted in those ranges over all and by position in order to come up with relative values of selection slots and historical liklihood of success given positions. But that would be something that someone would have to pay me to do and give me access to much more information to make it worthwhile.

However lets get out of fantasy land. That is not going to happen and there is always going to be a better way. Just because something is better does not mean that the other is worthless and that is what you are trying to say.

Like i have said, I looked to see whether or not those first round draft picks were at least solid starters or if they were busts. From that half of all the WRs drafted in the last 25 years were not at least solid starters whereas only a third of the DEs and OTs were completely worthless picks. To me that says something. Perhaps if i would crossreference that iwth other positions and other rounds it might say more but that does not mean that mine says nothing.

Youre using a zero sum argument when there is no zero sum.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

who's your favorite prospect

so I can be cute just like you and misspell his name

that wasnt my point dude im not trying to belittle anyone. I like meachem basically cause you guys say hes good. I just really didnt know how to spell his name and I was trying to have a bit of fun with it.

Performed well last season meets my past performance is the best predictor of future success standard. Has good size and measurables. Whats not to like other than the inherent risk in first round WRs?

 

[Hostile]

Youre a realist not a automaton though brah. I know you know that Landry isnt going to happen so youdont try to force it. but are you really going ot tell me that you being partisan to Meachom has not one iota of anything to do with this?

And i know ive been mispelling his name cause im not sure what that last vowel is.

I looked it up and it is Meachem with an E. I had no idea I was misspelling it. I won't anymore, but that's just me.

No, being partisan to Meachem isn't part of this. Look at the thread about Dwayne Jarrett, I don't diss him and throw a tantrum about people preferring him to the other WRs. Same with Bowe. Those are the 3 WRs who are grouped similarly based on size. I like big WRs, I really don't want Ginn, but if he ends up here...oh well.

Meachem is my favorite based on his attitude and his speed, but I wouldn't care if the pick ended up being Jarrett or Bowe any more than if we got Willis, Nelson, Revis, Brown, etc.

I think we have to address WR, in other words I feel it is a pressing need. As much as I like Crayton I don't see him as a 1 or 2 guy. Maybe a 2, definitely not a 1. Bowe, Meachem, and Jarrett on the other hand can be. Truth be told, I was a little surprised we gave Glenn his 5 million dollar roster bonus. I thought that might make him a casualty, just like some predict it with Owens in June for his 3 million dollar one.

For me it's a business decision, 5 million for the guy who produced less than the 3 million dollar guy, Glenn was the more obvious possible cut to me and I openly admit I like him better than Owens. Their ages are only one reason why WR is important to me. Glenn has had injury issues the last couple of seasons and now Owens has had 2 surgeries on his hand. How durable are they now that they are in the twilight of their careers? Will either of them be on this team in 2008? Right now, I think one might be, the other most likely won't be.

I also look at our secondary and think that if we focus on pressuring the QB so they aren't left on an island that we can live with what we have there, same at LB if need be. I'd like to improve both, but don't see it as critical or immediate. I honestly believe our DL and LBs will be taking up a lot of slack this year. Come on, we've all been screaming to see blitzing for years. now we have a coach who is saying it is gonna happen. Immediate benefit to the DBs imminent, IMO.

OL is another story. I think we need to find Flo's replacement. Maybe not this year, but it had better be in the plans. Given the focus in Free Agency I doubt OL is the 1st round focus. I won't gripe if we land Staley or Brown. Not at all. Maybe we have him in McQuistan. I'm not as sure as some are.

When I break it all down WR just makes the most sense to me. That's me. If you disagree, I have no problem with that at all. I'm looking at it as the most critical need on the team long term, beyond 2007. I don't ever want to be a one and done team. That is why I am so critical of the way the Commanders do it. I'd rather build a winner than buy a Championship. I also want someone to grow into the position with Romo, as Irvin and Aikman did.

Bottom line, yeah, I like Meachem a lot, but I don't like him so much that I have blind spots. I see this as an opportunity filled draft at a time when we have a need. It really is that simple for me. Bias has nothing to do with it.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I looked it up and it is Meachem with an E. I had no idea I was misspelling it. I won't anymore, but that's just me.

No, being partisan to Meachem isn't part of this. Look at the thread about Dwayne Jarrett, I don't diss him and throw a tantrum about people preferring him to the other WRs. Same with Bowe. Those are the 3 WRs who are grouped similarly based on size. I like big WRs, I really don't want Ginn, but if he ends up here...oh well.

Meachem is my favorite based on his attitude and his speed, but I wouldn't care if the pick ended up being Jarrett or Bowe any more than if we got Willis, Nelson, Revis, Brown, etc.

I think we have to address WR, in other words I feel it is a pressing need. As much as I like Crayton I don't see him as a 1 or 2 guy. Maybe a 2, definitely not a 1. Bowe, Meachem, and Jarrett on the other hand can be. Truth be told, I was a little surprised we gave Glenn his 5 million dollar roster bonus. I thought that might make him a casualty, just like some predict it with Owens in June for his 3 million dollar one.

For me it's a business decision, 5 million for the guy who produced less than the 3 million dollar guy, Glenn was the more obvious possible cut to me and I openly admit I like him better than Owens. Their ages are only one reason why WR is important to me. Glenn has had injury issues the last couple of seasons and now Owens has had 2 surgeries on his hand. How durable are they now that they are in the twilight of their careers? Will either of them be on this team in 2008? Right now, I think one might be, the other most likely won't be.

I also look at our secondary and think that if we focus on pressuring the QB so they aren't left on an island that we can live with what we have there, same at LB if need be. I'd like to improve both, but don't see it as critical or immediate. I honestly believe our DL and LBs will be taking up a lot of slack this year. Come on, we've all been screaming to see blitzing for years. now we have a coach who is saying it is gonna happen. Immediate benefit to the DBs imminent, IMO.

OL is another story. I think we need to find Flo's replacement. Maybe not this year, but it had better be in the plans. Given the focus in Free Agency I doubt OL is the 1st round focus. I won't gripe if we land Staley or Brown. Not at all. Maybe we have him in McQuistan. I'm not as sure as some are.

When I break it all down WR just makes the most sense to me. That's me. If you disagree, I have no problem with that at all. I'm looking at it as the most critical need on the team long term, beyond 2007. I don't ever want to be a one and done team. That is why I am so critical of the way the Commanders do it. I'd rather build a winner than buy a Championship. I also want someone to grow into the position with Romo, as Irvin and Aikman did.

Bottom line, yeah, I like Meachem a lot, but I don't like him so much that I have blind spots. I see this as an opportunity filled draft at a time when we have a need. It really is that simple for me. Bias has nothing to do with it.

I satnd corrected. Hos, you are a rock. i keep going back to Tombstone references.

i didnt even realize you were missplelling it. I thought I was but i wasnt sure so i was just changing the spelling everytime. Like i was saying just to screw around.

i get what youre saying and I agree to a certain extent. WR needs to be addressed I just think that the difference in say that second tier of Meachem, Bowe and Jarrett is not that great compared to the guys in the second and would prefer to wait. But thats just me like i was saying.

I dont think it would be the end of the world if we picked one of them there but to be honest i would be worried about the pick moreso that if it was of the other positions.

Would you rank Meachem as top 15 in this draft? Cause i have a feeling that one of the guys that are top 15 on our board will be there at 22. Stupid teams always reach and there is a run on a particular position every draft.

 

[Hostile]

I satnd corrected. Hos, you are a rock. i keep going back to Tombstone references.

i didnt even realize you were missplelling it. I thought I was but i wasnt sure so i was just changing the spelling everytime. Like i was saying just to screw around.

i get what youre saying and I agree to a certain extent. WR needs to be addressed I just think that the difference in say that second tier of Meachem, Bowe and Jarrett is not that great compared to the guys in the second and would prefer to wait. But thats just me like i was saying.

I dont think it would be the end of the world if we picked one of them there but to be honest i would be worried about the pick moreso that if it was of the other positions.

Would you rank Meachem as top 15 in this draft? Cause i have a feeling that one of the guys that are top 15 on our board will be there at 22. Stupid teams always reach and there is a run on a particular position every draft.

After the blue chip guys I try and slot guys within 10 places. For me Meachem is between 15 to 25. If he goes higher than 15, I'll be shocked. If he drops past 25 I will be too. That means at 22 I consider him a bargain.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

After the blue chip guys I try and slot guys within 10 places. For me Meachem is between 15 to 25. If he goes higher than 15, I'll be shocked. If he drops past 25 I will be too. That means at 22 I consider him a bargain.

And thats what i lok at as well. Ive said it before but I really see one of Lynch, Nelson, Houston, Moss, Willis, Okoye or Branch being there at 22 and those guys are close to top 15. thas why i ask that question.

i only see 5 or so blue chippers in this draft and Peterson isnt one of them.

To me its Johnson Adams Quinn Russell and that tackle who eludes me atm and everyone else.

 

[Hostile]

And thats what i lok at as well. Ive said it before but I really see one of Lynch, Nelson, Houston, Moss, Willis, Okoye or Branch being there at 22 and those guys are close to top 15. thas why i ask that question.

i only see 5 or so blue chippers in this draft and Peterson isnt one of them.

To me its Johnson Adams Quinn Russell and that tackle who eludes me atm and everyone else.

I'd love to have Okoye. I have a feeling hsi star is on the rise.

Willis is my number 2 hope since I have given up hoping for Landry.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'd love to have Okoye. I have a feeling hsi star is on the rise.

Willis is my number 2 hope since I have given up hoping for Landry.

Okoye at 19 is going to get bigger and i wouldnt completely give up hope teams always do weird things in teh draft.

i really really like this draft class. Lots of OLB, CB, S, WR although its a bit thin at OT and DT. There is really no OT that i like at 22 and if we pick Grubbs i think ill puke. Its going to be pretty hard for the m to screw up this draft tho.

But seriosuly do you think the difference between Meachem and say Rice, Hill or Gonzalez is all that great?

 

[The Realist]

I don't get why Sidney Rice is ranked where he is.

Good value in 2.

 

[Hostile]

Okoye at 19 is going to get bigger and i wouldnt completely give up hope teams always do weird things in teh draft.

i really really like this draft class. Lots of OLB, CB, S, WR although its a bit thin at OT and DT. There is really no OT that i like at 22 and if we pick Grubbs i think ill puke. Its going to be pretty hard for the m to screw up this draft tho.

But seriosuly do you think the difference between Meachem and say Rice, Hill or Gonzalez is all that great?

I agree, Branch may fall because of Okoye's upside. He wouldn't be a bad player to end up with at all, though I think he'll be off the board too.

There's not much footage on youtube.com for Meachem. I wanted you to see how he performed at the skills competition where he caught 30 balls in 30 seconds from 4 different directions and was asking the feeders to speed up the machines. His hands are so soft you could barely hear the ball hitting them.

He fights for yardage, this clip was posted for a different reason, but I want you to watch how he dips his shoulder into the would be tackler.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=gnsDAuifqD8

Add top notch speed with a 4.39 time in the 40 that he said disappointed him and he wanted to run int he 4.2's. Check out this from an article on him by Matt Mosely, formerly of DMN.

"After spending time at Athletes' Performance in Tucson, Ariz., an elite training facility where top prospects prepare for the draft, Meachem had an impressive showing at the combine. He recorded a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash, but that wasn't good enough for him.

"I was mad because I wanted to run a 4.2," he said. "I did it in Arizona and I felt like I could've done it in Indy."

That's about as close as Meachem comes to being brash."

That's right here in Tucson where I live. I wish I had known he was training there. Think of that, 6'3", 214 pounds running a sub 4.3. Now add his hands to the mix.

The only ingredient left for an impact WR is drive, or fire. Now think back to that clip above. I think he has that too.

IMO he is the most complete WR in this draft other than Calvin Johnson who is out of this world. No other candidate shows his combination of skills. Long story short, yes, I do place him above those other candidates and truth be known if he is gone before we select, I hope we will go DT, LB, CB, or OL and then grab a WR in the 2nd or 3rd instead.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

And thats what i lok at as well. Ive said it before but I really see one of Lynch, Nelson, Houston, Moss, Willis, Okoye or Branch being there at 22 and those guys are close to top 15. thas why i ask that question.

i only see 5 or so blue chippers in this draft and Peterson isnt one of them.

To me its Johnson Adams Quinn Russell and that tackle who eludes me atm and everyone else.

Wow! Only 5 Blue Chip players in this draft? Can't say that I agree with that.

 

[theogt]

You can be reductionist if you wish and go for every minutae but that does not make my interpretation crap.

In other words, you think it's ok to ignore my criticisms. That's fine, as long as we're both aware that that is what you're doing -- ignoring them.

 

[dogunwo]

There's some really good information there.

No there really isnt. Those statistics prove only that he wasted his time. By the way, whats up Mas?

 

[InmanRoshi]

Does it strike anyone as odd that four out of the five teams that won 12+ games last year didn't have a 1,000 yard WR on the roster? Indianapolis seems to be the exception and not the rule. Someone brought up the Bengals earlier as a model that we ought to emulate. The Bengals went 8-8 last year and didn't make the playoffs. Just like we had two 1,000 yard WR's and barely sneaked into the playoffs. So how big of a difference does being dominant at that position really make? The fans certainly put a lot of stock into the position,

I dunno, when I see a franchise that puts a lot resources into the WR position ... Al Davis, Matt Millen, the Falcons, the Cardinals ... I tend to look at them as a bush league franchise. I remember when the Lions drafted Mike Williams a lot of people were talking about how "sick" that offense was, as if they envied the Lions. I just thought "Wow, that franchise is going to be bad for a really, really long time."

 

[mmillman]

what would you do next year when Dallas' starting WR's are 34 and 35 years old? Every position has busts. Dallas needs to address this position now otherwise Romo will be throwing to WR's named Hurd and Miles. Crayton will be a free agent next year and he isn't a number 1 and maybe not a number 2 WR in this league.

My worst nightmare is Romo with Barber and Witten as his primary targets. Slow, slow, slow. Defenses would feast on Dallas with an unproven LT (possibly), a slow HB, a decent TE and subpar WR's.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Does it strike anyone as odd that four out of the five teams that won 12+ games last year didn't have a 1,000 yard WR on the roster? Indianapolis seems to be the exception and not the rule. Someone brought up the Bengals earlier as a model that we ought to emulate. The Bengals went 8-8 last year and didn't make the playoffs. Just like we had two 1,000 yard WR's and barely sneaked into the playoffs. So how big of a difference does being dominant at that position really make? The fans certainly put a lot of stock into the position,

I dunno, when I see a franchise that puts a lot resources into the WR position ... Matt Millen, the Falcons, the Cardinals ... I tend to look at them as a bush league franchise. I remember when the Lions drafted Mike Williams a lot of people were talking about how "sick" that offense was, as if they envied the Lions. I just thought "Wow, that franchise is going to be bad for a really, really long time."

the problem w/ the Cards and Lions, is that they don't have a QB and much of a D, or running game, if WRs are you best position on the team, you're not going to be doing much

 

[InmanRoshi]

what would you do next year when Dallas' starting WR's are 34 and 35 years old? Every position has busts. Dallas needs to address this position now otherwise Romo will be throwing to WR's named Hurd and Miles. Crayton will be a free agent next year and he isn't a number 1 and maybe not a number 2 WR in this league.

Our starting NT is old, yet I don't see 8 posts a day talking about we have to draft a NT with our first pick.

Face it, fans have an bias towards the WR positon.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Our starting NT is old, yet I don't see 8 posts a day talking about we have to draft a NT with our first pick.

Face it, fans have an bias towards the WR positon.

cuz only Alan Branch is a NT worthy of a 1st round pick, and after him it's Paul Soliai and then a huge drop-off

 

[theogt]

Does it strike anyone as odd that four out of the five teams that won 12+ games last year didn't have a 1,000 yard WR on the roster? Indianapolis seems to be the exception and not the rule. Someone brought up the Bengals earlier as a model that we ought to emulate. The Bengals went 8-8 last year and didn't make the playoffs. Just like we had two 1,000 yard WR's and barely sneaked into the playoffs. So how big of a difference does being dominant at that position really make? The fans certainly put a lot of stock into the position,

I dunno, when I see a franchise that puts a lot resources into the WR position ... Matt Millen, the Falcons, the Cardinals ... I tend to look at them as a bush league franchise. I remember when the Lions drafted Mike Williams a lot of people were talking about how "sick" that offense was, as if they envied the Lions. I just thought "Wow, that franchise is going to be bad for a really, really long time."

Some teams are good because of their defense. Some are good because of their offense. Some are balanced. The Bengals were 8-8 because of their horrible defense. If your point is that we shouldn't improve the offense because our defense might suck, then ok. But that seems pretty obvious. I think it's important to have a balanced team.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Some teams are good because of their defense. Some are good because of their offense. Some are balanced. The Bengals were 8-8 because of their horrible defense. If your point is that we shouldn't improve the offense because our defense might suck, then ok. But that seems pretty obvious. I think it's important to have a balanced team.

Many teams are able to have productive offenses without a great WR. I'm all for balance. I'm all for drafting a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round. I get the feeling that many here want to draft a WR at #22, no matter what. I don't think that lends itself to balance.