WR In the First Round Is a Horrible Idea

[Alexander]

Like Roethlisberger?

He's still very young. I still believe last year was just an anomaly. He had two very good seasons and was considered "franchise" before last season.

 

[Crown Royal]

He's still very young. I still believe last year was just an anomaly. He had two very good seasons and was considered "franchise" before last season.

I agree. But it remains that he was a bus driver when they won a superbowl, not a great QB.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

I made this post last night at the end of a thread and it got no love at 1 AM and seeing as i put some work into it I decided to let it stand on its own.

I went back 25 years and looked at 3 of the highest bust factor positions in the draft, WR DE and OT. WRs have gotten a bad rap but so have DE with Wadsworth, Mamula dn Brown as well as OT with Mike Williams and Tony Mandarich. Heres what I got:

Since 1982 these are all the WR, DE and OT drafted in the first. Next to their names is either bust or boom. In order to be a bust you had to not make it to season 5, not start for the majority of their career or thier numbers sucked.

WR

Anthony Hancock bust
Lindsay Scott bust
Perry Tuttle bust
Mike Quick boom
Willie Gault boom
Irving Fryar boom
Kenny Jackson bust
Clyde Duncan bust
Louis Lipps boom
Al Toon boom
Eddie Brown boom
Jerry Rice boom
Jessie Hester bust
Mike Sherrard bust
Tim McGee boom
Haywood Jeffries boom
Ricky Nattiel boom
Mark Ingram boom
Tim Brown boom
Sterling Sharpe boom
Michael Irvin boom
Anthony Miller boom
Aaron Cox bust
Wendell Davis bust
Eric Metcalf bust
Hart Lee Dykes bust
Andre rison boom
Shawn Collins bust
Herman Moore boom
Alvin Harper boom
Mike Pritchard bust
Randall Hill bust
Desmond Howard bust
Curtis Conway bust
Sean Dawkins boom
OJ McDuffie boom
Charles Johnson bust
Johnnie Morton boom
Thomas Lewis bust
Derrick Alexander boom
Michael Westbrook bust
Joey Galloway boom
JJ Stokes bust
Key Johnson boom
Terry Glenn boom
Eddie Kennison boom
Marvin Harrison boom
Eric Moulds boom
Ike Hilliard boom
Yatil Green bust
Reidel anthony bust
Rae Carruth bust
Kevin Dyson bust
Randy Moss boom
Marcus Nash bust
Torry Holt boom
Davis Boston bust
Troy Edwards bust
Peter Warrick bust
Plax Burress boom
Travis Taylor bust
Sylvester Morris bust
RJ Soward bust
David Terrell bust
Koren Robinson bust
Rod Gardener bust
Sanatana Moss boom
Freddie Mtchell bust
Reggie Wayne boom
Donte Stallworth bust mediocre
Ashley Lelie boom
Javon Walker boom

36 of 73 or 49% busts

DE
Ken Sims bust
Jeff Bryant boom
Glenn Collins bust
Mike Pitts boom
Jim Jeffcoat boom
Rick Bryan boom
Alphonso Carriker boom
Ron Faurot bust
Pete Koch bust
Bruce Smith boom
Chris Doleman boom
Ron Holmes boom
Kevin Brooks bust
Darryl Sims bust
Jon Hand boom
Leslie Oneal boom
Gerald Robinson boom
Tim Green boom
Eric Dorsey bust
Bob Buczkowski bust
Reggie Rogers bust
John Bosa bust
Jason Buck boom
Tony Woods boom
Aundray Bruce boom
Neil Smith boom
Aaron Jones boom
Derrick Thomas boom
Burt Grossman boom
Trace Armstrong boom
Jeff Lageman boom
Wayne Martin boom
Bill Hawkins bust
Keith McCants boom
Anthony Smith boom
Marco Coleman boom
Alonzo Spellman boom
Chris Mims boom
Robert Porcher boom
John Copeland boom
Eric Curry bust
Bryant Young boom
Joe Johnson boom
Shante Carver bust
Derrick Alexander boom
Kevin Carter boom
Mike Mamula bust
Hugh Douglas boom
Simeon Rice boom
Cedric Jones bust
Regan Upshaw boom
Duane Clemons boom
Marcus Jones boom
Reinald Williams bust
Kenard Lang bust
Kenny Holmes boom
Renaldo Wynn bust
Joe Harris bust
Trevor Pryce boom
Andre Wadsworth bust
Grant Wistrom boom
Jason Peter bust
Jevon Kearse boom
Ebenezer Ekuban boom
Lamar king bust
Patrick Kerney boom
Courtney Brown bust
Shaun Ellis boom
John Abraham boom
Erik Flowers bust
Justin Smith boom
Richard Seymour boom
Andre Carter boom
Jamal Reynolds bust
julius Peppers boom
Dwight Freeney boom
Bryan Thomas bust
Charles Grant boom

26 of 78 busts or 33% busts

OT
Luis Sharpe boom
Chris Henton bust
Jimbo Covert boom
Dean Steinkuhler boom
Jon Alt boom
Brian Blados boom
Lokmas Brown boom
Ken Ruettgers boom
Kevin Allen bust
Jim Lachey boom
Wil Wolford boom
John Clay bust
Harris Barton boom
Bruce Armstrong boom
Paul Gruber boom
Tony Mandarich bust
David Williams boom
Tom Ricketts bust
Richmond Webb boom
Charles McRae bust
Antone Davis boom
Stan Thomas bust
Pat Harlow boom
Bob Whitfield boom
Ray Roberts boom
Leon Searcy boom
Jon Fina boom
Willie Roaf boom
Lincoln Kennedy boom
Brad Hopkins boom
Ernest Dye bust
Bernard Williams bust
Wayne Gandy boom
Aaron Taylor bust
Todd Steussie boom
Tony Boselli boom
Korey Stringer boom sad one though
Billy Milner bust
Blake Brokermeyer bust
Trazelle Jenkins bust
Jonathon Ogden boom
Willie Anderson boom
John Michels bust
Jamain Stephens bust
Andre Johnson bust
Orlando Pace boom
Walter Jones boom
Tarik Glenn boom
Kyle Turley boom
Tra Thomas boom
Victor Riley boom
John Tait boom
Luke Petitgout boom
LJ Shelton boom he started for 7 years and only missed 8 games
Aaron Gibson bust
Chris Samuels boom
Stockar McDougal bust
Leonard Davis boom
Kenyatta Walker bust
Jeff Backus boom
Mike Williams bust
Bryant McKinnie bust
Levi Jones boom
Marc Columbo boom

21 of 64 busts or 33% busts

Now to me this is huge. I realize that some like Meacham, some like Jarrett and some like Ginn but at the end of the day I wouldnt even want Johnson. There is a 50% chance that any WR drafted in the first round will crap out on you and with the first day WRs being 10 deep i would rather take my chances later on.

If you disagree with some of my assessments thats fine but overall they should remain about the same.

I appreciate all the work on our behalf.
But get a life. Get a gal (They are so much fun!).
But interesting post all in all.
Sherrod and LePew: Awful picks by us.
Irvin was great.
Hey, Fuzzy wuzzy, I think that the 'Boys drafting a WR or RB in the first round would be madness, btw.
Let's draft a blue-chip CB and bulk up one of our CBs and move him to safety.
Good job! Stay classy.

 

[Concord]

So let me get this straight...

RD 1 - Ted Ginn Jr.

RD 2 - Anthony Gonzales

RD 3 - Troy Smith

RD 4 - Antonio Pittman

Got any ILB's? When does Laurinaitis come out? Now THAT is a buckeye I want on the cowboys.

I'd say after next year.

And yeah...I'd take him too!:

 

[The Realist]

The only "bus driver" we have seen in recent years was Trent Dilfer.

Other than that, you have had great QBs on world champions.

Brad Johnson?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

In other words, you think it's ok to ignore my criticisms. That's fine, as long as we're both aware that that is what you're doing -- ignoring them.

Like i said before you are being strange. your acting as if i dont know how to argue point by point but that is EXACTLY what i do. here are several responses to your various 'points' You arguments break down to two basic things. The two mythical players and your assertion that there are better ways to a study and therefore this one is crap.

To the thre are two players i disagree with but I STILLwont tell you who they are argument:

I call BS. Name those players or actually spend some time to evaluate it. You just disagree with the conclusion so as per usual youre going to make a halfcocked refutation with no basis.

You siad you looked at tow players and they were wrong thats weak and you know it. Your refusing to actually evaluate the list you had made up your mind from the get go that much is obvious.

theo we have at least backed upw hat we have to say with something. you have contributed noting. The best you can do is say two of the over 200 players i listed were worng as if that proves something. If you want to be lazy then fine but something will always be >> than nothing.

i told ou what my standards were for bust or boom argue those and you still havent ponied up to tell me who those two players were. Like I said I call BS.

And to your other argument and the various methodologies you stated were 'better'

It was actually prety difficult to get labeled a bust. i made it that way intentionally. And like i said some may be wrong i did this at 1AM but I have a feeling that my mistakes work both ways and it would work out in the end anyway.

my definition of a bust was played at least 5 seasons. Started at least 2/3 of the time. Had at least one 1000 yard season as a WR OR averaged over 650 yards a season. One 10 sack season or averaging over 5 sacks a season. OT was a bit more difficult so I moved the seasons played up to 6 and looked at probowlls and games started. I would want at least that in the first round. A probowl automatically put you in the boom category. That is the type of expected return i would want out of a 1st rounder.

Whats your definition? Oh thats right you dont actually posit ANYTHING.

You criticize me for being subjective then say this. They both dont jive. I intentionally made it difficult to be labeled a bust. Only play 6 seasons as an OL, 5 at the other positions, never make a probowl, have terrible stats, dont start. I think that these are expected returns from a first rounder and actually being quite nice about it. As for the numbered system i chose not to do that but if you want to go ahead and make your evals that way.

How am i joking and how did i not respond to all of that. You saw the whole numbered system response. You saw my response to the two players. i dont know what youre missing.

Ill go a bit further on the numbering system thing. You are saying that you have to quantify the value of a OT to a team to a WR to a team to a DE to a team and each player independtly.

Not only is that obnoxiously onerous. Which I think you know it is: Give him an impossible task and then call him out when he doesnt do it. But furthermore i dont think its necessary.

I would first say that I think that of the three postions, WR is the least important. A good defensive end and good offensive tackle help control the line ofscrimmage and the pass rush and are integral to each and every play whereas a WR is peripheral on may plays being on the perimeter.

I didnt want to get into all that because all of that is grossly open to interpretation. I set down what i felt were resonable standards of expectations for a player and saw if they measured up. Make it a simple yes or no situation to keep it simple but not make it difficult for a player to meet those standards.

Now you may not agree with that but for you to just blanket it as crap really brings nothing to the table theo other than bluster. If you disagree that someone is a bust or not then fine discuss but you refuse to do that and jsut blather.

Your entire response to this thread has been baffling frankly. You wont tell me who those two players are. You ignore my responses when I even go so far to list yours and then my answers. If you dont think they apply then that would be cool but you say nothing. its jsut weird.

I dont want to go through and come up with some BS arbitrary value of value to the team relative to postion. My point was 'was this player a decent sarter or bust." If you want to do a 'more complete' analysis then fine and I guarantee you my critique will be a lot better than 'you didnt do it the way i want you to so its crap,' or 'there are two players that are wrong but i wont tell you who they are so its crap.' And you say Im childish?

A lot of those WR were not decent starting WRs compared to the decent starting OTs and DEs in the first round. thats my point. If you think some of the players were or wre not decent then Id be happy to talk about it but if you think there is a 'better' way then do it yourslef. We'll see.

But in the end like i said SOMETHING >>>> NOTHING.

You can be reductionist if you wish and go for every minutae but that does not make my interpretation crap.

The best would probably be to break the draft into tiers, 5 picks each, and evaluate the players drafted in those ranges over all and by position in order to come up with relative values of selection slots and historical liklihood of success given positions. But that would be something that someone would have to pay me to do and give me access to much more information to make it worthwhile.

However lets get out of fantasy land. That is not going to happen and there is always going to be a better way. Just because something is better does not mean that the other is worthless and that is what you are trying to say.

Like i have said, I looked to see whether or not those first round draft picks were at least solid starters or if they were busts. From that half of all the WRs drafted in the last 25 years were not at least solid starters whereas only a third of the DEs and OTs were completely worthless picks. To me that says something. Perhaps if i would crossreference that iwth other positions and other rounds it might say more but that does not mean that mine says nothing.

Youre using a zero sum argument when there is no zero sum.

Those are your two central arguments. Its been over a day now. You have ZERO credibility on your mythical players.

As for the second, are you familiar with cross examination debate? Because it seems that you are trying to insert a counterplan but your doing it completely wrong.

First of all this is not a purely cerebral debate, I actually did something tangible. Just coming up with a counterplan is not enough to discredit my work. You would need some work of your own. Talk is cheap as they say.

Second the counterplan has boundaries by the resolution given. In truth it is more a refutation of the actual resolution which we dont have here. As such you have no point. Like i pointed out this is not zero sum, so if there is a 'better' plan out there that does not mean mine is lessened. There is no pecking order if you will and you still have to contend that there is actual tangible work out there versus your 'idea.' That trumps everything. I cannot argue something that does not exist and really is not defined.

However i think you know that. You gave an impossible task and then used it as a red herring to my work. I mean heck you gave at least two different ways that you said were 'better.' Your idea and my work are actually tow seperate things and one does not effect the other. All in all your arguments have boiled down to things that you have failed to produce. No players and no example of your 'better' way to do it. And like i have said repeatedly:

SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING.

 

[theogt]

Look Fuzz, saying that determining whether taking a WR in the first is a good idea or not takes more analysis than you provided is not a red herring. If the analysis were as simple as you suggest, then every NFL team would have done it and you wouldn't see WRs taken in the first round like we do. You keep ignoring that the analysis is incomplete because you think any challenge to the adequacy of your "study" is a red herring or reductionist. In the end, all you're doing is ignoring my arguments.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Look Fuzz, saying that determining whether taking a WR in the first is a good idea or not takes more analysis than you provided is not a red herring. If the analysis were as simple as you suggest, then every NFL team would have done it and you wouldn't see WRs taken in the first round like we do. You keep ignoring that the analysis is incomplete because you think any challenge to the adequacy of your "study" is a red herring or reductionist. In the end, all you're doing is ignoring my arguments.

You cannot even explain how it is theo saying that you have means nothing. What you are trying to do is say this way would be better but do not comment on how or why. you simply saying that i dont and then ignoring my reams of responses is sad.

I set a standard for bust that everyone can agree on and then demonstrated that WRs bust 16% more often than two other more critical positions. You are saying that this has to be the ultimate definitive analysis or it is worthless and i am sorry but you need to get over yourself and your counterplans. Im not ignoring your 'point' but quite frankly they are sefl serving and dont mean very much.

And really why should i care what anyone says who LIES about two mythical players? Its been 24 hours Theo and thats sad.

 

[theogt]

You cannot even explain how it is theo saying that you have means nothing. What you are trying to do is say this way would be better but do not comment on how or why. you simply saying that i dont and then ignoring my reams of responses is sad.

I set a standard for bust that everyone can agree on and then demonstrated that WRs bust 16% more often than two other more critical positions. You are saying that this has to be the ultimate definitive analysis or it is worthless and i am sorry but you need to get over yourself and your counterplans. Im not ignoring your 'point' but quite frankly they are sefl serving and dont mean very much.

And really why should i care what anyone says who LIES about two mythical players? Its been 24 hours Theo and thats sad.

It's like talking to a brick wall. You haven't responded substantively to my criticisms even once. Your argument has boiled down to claiming that you're correct unless I engage in some player for player debate. This is silly and disturbing that you can't see why simply saying "X amount are busts, therefore don't draft them" is an incomplete analysis.

 

[superpunk]

http://i32.***BLOCKED***/albums/d2/superpunk2884/bobbarker.gif

 

[theogt]

http://i32.***BLOCKED***/albums/d2/superpunk2884/bobbarker.gif

HOLY CRAP!!!!

 

[mschmidt64]

It's like talking to a brick wall.

Then why bother?

Anyone whose opinion you care about knows it's ridiculous to argue for never drafting a WR in the first round.

 

[superpunk]

HOLY CRAP!!!!

It's a gift.

Cherish it.

 

[theogt]

Then why bother?

Anyone whose opinion you care about knows it's ridiculous to argue for never drafting a WR in the first round.

Boredom. Avoiding other more important things I should be doing right now.

It's a gift.

Cherish it.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

It's a gift.

Cherish it.

hey, aren't you supposed to be working on my cartoon?

get to it!

 

[superpunk]

hey, aren't you supposed to be working on my cartoon?

get to it!

shhhhh...surprises.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

shhhhh...surprises.

my badzzz

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's like talking to a brick wall. You haven't responded substantively to my criticisms even once. Your argument has boiled down to claiming that you're correct unless I engage in some player for player debate. This is silly and disturbing that you can't see why simply saying "X amount are busts, therefore don't draft them" is an incomplete analysis.

Hey i really dont care what you say anymore Theo. Name the two players or jsut shut up.

You need to get over yourself. Like I have said repeatedly:

you sayiing that I have to look at WR bust rates in later rounds does not make it true. there is no reason that I cannot look at them in a vacuum and it be substantive. just because you say so and not backing it up MEANS NOTHING.

you saying that i have to have an even more subjective rating system based on expected returns versus other positions does not make it so. being so wildly subjective it would be so muddled as to be pointless. SIMPLE IS BETTER for the purposes of discusssion.

you saying that '16% more WRs drafted in the first round do not even become adequate starters as compared to OT and DE is worthless' does not make it so.

you have severe credibility issues in the first place and you are expecting me to give a damn what you say when we both know you cannot produce those two players you crowed about and now simply ignore. I dont take your assertions on faith and that is all you have. you saying i HAVE to do anything MEANS NOTHING.

Get over yourself. Just like that guy doesnt have to give the warning when a interview is coming up neither do I have to do things wht way you think best. Take your type A BS elsewhere thank you very much.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Then why bother?

Anyone whose opinion you care about knows it's ridiculous to argue for never drafting a WR in the first round.

Appeal to popularity. If thats not the most mindless fallacy of all. BTW you get to be a member of my fanclub.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You did this last night when i made you look silly. You just left only to come back today to say that I didnt respond to you.

Can I expect more of the same? Seems pretty standard for a type A to do this though.