How high is too high when it comes to our expectations for this year?
It has been pointed out; it merits pointing out again. This place is hardly recognizable from previous years following the draft. The degree of optimism in this place is almost unsettling. And I’m not sure the Cowboys draft was as good as we are making it. I do wonder a little bit if last year’s draft has infused in us fans an unfair and unrealistic confidence. Surely we don’t expect a repeat of last year’s drafting success…especially considering where we were picking then (fourth overall throughout) versus where we were picking this year (28th overall throughout, along with a missing 5th round pick; thanks Matt Cassell). Four starters were found; 2 on offense (Dak & Zeke), 2 on defense (Collins & Brown). Add to that the 2 who redshirted, and there is potential to find 2 more starters from the same draft in Jaylon Smith and Charles Tapper (obviously, the likely scenario is 1 starter in Jaylon Smith, and a situational pass rusher in Charles Tapper, most likely in obvious passing situations).
So, the responsibility falls to me to be the wet blanket. So be it; it is usually I who feels the need to inspire confidence and hope into our Cowboys when the going gets tough, but I am no stranger to being a Debbie Downer. In 2015, I had a similar feeling; that maybe our success in 2014 was not as sustainable as many seemed to believe (especially with the departure of Demarco Murray). And sure enough, disaster struck in the form of a Romo injury and 2015 went down in flames. Of course, there was a silver-lining to that epic fail of a season. We were awarded the fourth overall pick and were afforded the ability to rejuvenate the ranks in the form of those aforementioned starters. That luxury did not extend to this year.
This year we were 28th in line and as such, we were not able to get the best options at every positions. It was leftovers across the board. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure and that proves true even in the NFL as schematic fit can often times trump a player’s individual talent. Take for instance a guy best suited for the 3-4 at defensive end. He might be the most dominant DE in college, but if you run the 4-3, unless you are planning on converting him to DT, chances are you field trade offers for someone to trade up and use those additional picks to find guys that actually fit your scheme.
Some will tell you, despite the Cowboys picking position, they were able to accomplish just that and get a large majority of their favorite targeted players. On that point, I’m not so sure. Don’t get me wrong…I really liked this draft where the Cowboys actually picked up a few of my very own pet cats in Awuzie and Woods. Nevertheless, we would be setting ourselves up for a significant letdown if we simply chose to ignore the positions they were unable to address.
Free, in his tenure, was likely the least favorite of the 5 offensive lineman, otherwise known as the Great Wall of Dallas. He was, in many ways, the weak link, particularly against speed rushers. But being the weak link on a great offensive line likely means you are still above average, as what I believe Free was. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, this was not the draft to find a viable replacement. The Cowboys did pick up some UDFA’s, but none are of the caliber UDFA the Cowboys lucked into with La’el Collins. As of right now, the Cowboys have Chaz Green penciled into the vacancy left by Free. I do not believe that would qualify as addition by subtraction.
Worst case scenario, the Cowboys have to routinely slide help to the RT side to help in blitz pick up and/or send the RB in that direction for the occasional chip whilst moving into a route. So, it’s not necessarily season-damning to not have All Pro’s across the board. But it is noteworthy to point out that the Cowboys identity as a whole, starts up front on offense. So even the slightest chink in that armor could cascade into bigger problems as the season progresses, especially if one of the stronger links in that chain miss any amount of time due to injury.
Youth is wasted on the young. This old cliché is pontificating on how much more an old mind could accomplish without the physical limitations of an old body. Imagine if science afforded us the ability to take an old consciousness and place it in the physical trappings of a youngster. Trust me when I say I have given this idea much thought. To do it all over again knowing what I know today…it’s kind of scary.
As Cowboys fan’s, we have to hope youth is not wasted on our new-fangled defense. Because aside from Sean Lee and Orlando Scandrick, this is a very young defense. As a result, they are going to make mistakes young players make. Truth be told, this defense very well could be epically bad. I honestly don’t think so. I believe what will in retrospect make this year’s draft special is the overall attitude this bunch brings; that intangible quality that forces everyone to play above their ability due to the standard that is set and kept. Having said that, I’d be foolish to dismiss the potential for it to go in a completely different direction with a bunch of look-at-me’s and pointing fingers on the field playing the blame game when someone misses a coverage. I suspect regardless of what the overall impression is of this draft class, we have to expect to see a little bit of both good and bad. And we have to hope in the end, it doesn’t really matter.
But beyond what has already been discussed, the one thing that fills me with the most trepidation for the upcoming season is the following statistic: Since 2007, seasons that ended in the playoffs for the Cowboys were followed by terrible letdown seasons. In 2007, the Cowboys went 13 & 3 followed by 9 & 7 in 2008 and 3rd place in the East. In 2009, the Cowboys won the East with an 11 and 5 record followed by 2010, where they ended with 6 and 10 and 3rd place in the East. This was followed by 3 straight season of 8 and 8. Then, in 2014, the Cowboys went 12 and 4 earning another NFCE title, only to follow that up with the poor returns of 4 and 12 and last place in the East in 2015.
Now for those who recall those years in detail, there were certainly always extenuating circumstances that surrounded those terrible seasons, most notably injuries to several key positions on both sides of the ball and a Head Coaching change in 2010. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing out that this has been happening like clockwork for just under 10 years. What makes this year any different?
I’ll answer for you. Youth. It is no secret that the older a player gets, the more susceptible they become to injury. Fortunately for the Cowboys, there very few over-thirties left and (outside of Sean Lee maybe) none would be considered mission critical. But injuries are not the only thing that can derail a season. How about that 2017 schedule? The NFCE, I suspect, is going to be a monster this season. Each of our divisional foes not only had the luxury of picking before our Cowboys in the draft, they also took much more active approaches to improving through Free Agency. The Cowboys will be facing largely revamped units that many were overhauled simply to compete with the Cowboys. Add to that the Packers, Raiders, Seahawks, Falcons, Broncos, Cardinals and a Chiefs team that is slowly but surely making strides towards becoming dominant, and you should certainly be able to understand the misgivings I have about the upcoming season.
As for as the next several years, not so concerned. I still believe the Cowboys are on the cusp of greatness….I’m just not so sure that greatness begins this season.
Thoughts?
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