Zeke on Pace for 2k - the Real Math

[TheHerd]

You can't carry over last years stats to this year. It just doesn't work that way.

You know what they say about stats.

 

[TheHerd]

Yup. I'd rather he just get 1500 and 26 tds lol

I'd rather see 1400 and a Super Bowl win!

 

[Pants]

I'd rather see him get the 6-gamer if it meant SB this year....

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Unless you get 2106. Then yeah, otherwise it's meaningless.

It's a meh or me record.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'd rather see 1400 and a Super Bowl win!

This.

 

[T-RO]

It's a meh or me record.

I think it would be fun but I don't think it should at all influence game plans or playing time decisions--unless Zeke is right on the brink of breaking a mark or record.

The quest for such a goal I do think provides extra motivation for Zeke and the blockers during a long season.

 

[T-RO]

This is like listening to my wife telling me how she saved $20 buying yet another pair of shoes because they were on sale.

Really?

Not at all the same. Spending money ≠ saving money...that's just playing w/words.

There is a median line of defensive quality. You plot along the median line...knowing there will be data points of defensive quality above/below, which suppress or expand the actual rushing total for that game.

Zeke ran with very few actual holes Sunday. In some games there will be gaping holes every other play.

 

[percyhoward]

To me 2,000 yards rushing is one of the most hollow of stats out there.

2,000 yards rushing is an individual accomplishment that doesn't typically mean much for the team.

• 7 players have rushed for 2,000+ yards in a season. Only 1 of them won at least one playoff game that season.
• 21 players have rushed for 1,800+ yards in a season. Only 6 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• 54 players have rushed for 1,600+ yards in a season. Only 15 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.

Do the same thing with QB and passer rating...

• Of the top 7 single-season performances, 6 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season.
• Of the top 21 single-season performances, 16 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means less than 25% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• Of the top 54 single-season performances, 35 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means only 35% failed to win in the playoffs.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

2,000 yards rushing is an individual accomplishment that doesn't typically mean much for the team.

• 7 players have rushed for 2,000+ yards in a season. Only 1 of them won at least one playoff game that season.
• 21 players have rushed for 1,800+ yards in a season. Only 6 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• 54 players have rushed for 1,600+ yards in a season. Only 15 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.

Do the same thing with QB and passer rating...

• Of the top 7 single-season performances, 6 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season.
• Of the top 21 single-season performances, 16 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means less than 25% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• Of the top 54 single-season performances, 35 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means only 35% failed to win in the playoffs.

That's exactly right.

Gaudy rushing stats usually mean you have a team that's either not in the playoffs or not advancing in the playoffs.

And then you have the next season burnout where the back's production takes a dive due to being overused the season before.

No thanks.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

2,000 yards rushing is an individual accomplishment that doesn't typically mean much for the team.

• 7 players have rushed for 2,000+ yards in a season. Only 1 of them won at least one playoff game that season.
• 21 players have rushed for 1,800+ yards in a season. Only 6 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• 54 players have rushed for 1,600+ yards in a season. Only 15 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.

Do the same thing with QB and passer rating...

• Of the top 7 single-season performances, 6 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season.
• Of the top 21 single-season performances, 16 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means less than 25% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• Of the top 54 single-season performances, 35 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means only 35% failed to win in the playoffs.

Yeah running is a tool. It closes out games, opens up coverage through playaction and heavy boxes, and helps finish drives in the red zone.

It's passing the ball and stopping the pass that scores and prevents points in all situations.

 

[T-RO]

2,000 yards rushing is an individual accomplishment that doesn't typically mean much for the team.

• 7 players have rushed for 2,000+ yards in a season. Only 1 of them won at least one playoff game that season.
• 21 players have rushed for 1,800+ yards in a season. Only 6 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• 54 players have rushed for 1,600+ yards in a season. Only 15 of them won at least one playoff game that season. That means more than 70% failed to win in the playoffs.

Do the same thing with QB and passer rating...

• Of the top 7 single-season performances, 6 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season.
• Of the top 21 single-season performances, 16 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means less than 25% failed to win in the playoffs.
  
• Of the top 54 single-season performances, 35 of those QB's teams won at least one playoff game that season. That means only 35% failed to win in the playoffs.

Percy...you don't have to convince me!

Offensive ANY/A - Defensive ANY/A is what wins games as I've argued long and hard.

 

[percyhoward]

Percy...you don't have to convince me!

Offensive ANY/A - Defensive ANY/A is what wins games as I've argued long and hard.

Right, but of course, making the defense play honest (by running successfully enough often enough) can play a big part in that.

I'm just saying teams don't usually gain much at all with huge season rushing yardage totals.

 

[Jake]

I think a race for 2k would be a lot of fun.

Meh. I'm tired of celebrating Pro Bowl selections and chasing individual season records.

I want to see postseason success, again. It's been a while. I really don't care about anything else.