Dak Prescott "Garbage time stats" Question

[Aviano90]

Yes, people tend not to remember when the "prevent" defense actually works and the team that does that wins the game. It's not as dramatic as blowing a lead when you play the "prevent" defense. That people remember. But don't take my word for it:

Hall of Fame coach John Madden:

“The only time that fans don’t like prevent defense is when it doesn’t work,” Madden said. “When it does work, you don’t even notice it. It’s like good officials and a well-officiated game, you don’t notice them at all. If you have poor officials, then the whole game is based on officiating.

“If the prevent works, no one ever talks about it or writes about it or mentions it.”

That said, Madden never liked the prevent.

“I thought it made the players play too conservatively,” he said. “Pretty soon they’re aware of everything and doing nothing. But I bet if you did the statistics on it, the amount of times that you use it and it works and you win the game would be a pretty high percentage.”

When we were winning in 2014 our fans would get mad when we let teams start coming back. The favorite phrase was "we took our foot off the gas" and "prevent defense prevents you from winning". Example of these games were New Orleans when we were up 31-3 and NO scored 2 TDs early in the 4th quarter to cut the lead to 14 with under 10 minutes to go. Chicago was another game when we were up 35-7 in the 4th and Chicago came back to cut the deficit to 10 with 6 minutes to go. A lot of our fans couldn't stand it.

 

[Vtwin]

Yes, people tend not to remember when the "prevent" defense actually works and the team that does that wins the game. It's not as dramatic as blowing a lead when you play the "prevent" defense. That people remember. But don't take my word for it:

Hall of Fame coach John Madden:

“The only time that fans don’t like prevent defense is when it doesn’t work,” Madden said. “When it does work, you don’t even notice it. It’s like good officials and a well-officiated game, you don’t notice them at all. If you have poor officials, then the whole game is based on officiating.

“If the prevent works, no one ever talks about it or writes about it or mentions it.”

That said, Madden never liked the prevent.
“I thought it made the players play too conservatively,” he said. “Pretty soon they’re aware of everything and doing nothing. But I bet if you did the statistics on it, the amount of times that you use it and it works and you
win the game would be a pretty high percentage.”

I don't doubt the bolded. Big comebacks are always remembered and even when it does work the fans still watch the losing team suddenly moving the ball against a strategically and psychologically softened defense and pucker up.

The blue speaks to one of the points I was trying to make. It goes beyond strategy. Building a big lead can change the psyche of the players even without a strategy change, and create a garbage time effect.

 

[Vtwin]

Besides, there's no fixed formula for a prevent defense, generally it involves dropping more into coverage, dropping deeper and putting less into rushing. So to say the prevent didn't work doesn't mean they did it correctly, maybe they dropped too deep, didn't rush enough, etc. What aggravates me is when a team just rushes 3 against a top quarterback, especially a mobile one. Gives the quarterback way too much time, no defense can consistently cover every receiver for 6-8-10 seconds while the quarterback peruses the defense at his leisure...

You mean like this?

 

[Mk2_Cowboys]

What game this year has had garbage time?
1st game came down to last play
2nd game fake down to last play
3rd game came down to last play
4th game came down to final drive

there hasn’t been any garbage time . His stats are his stats. .

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I don't have an issue with Prescott.

But my point is I would draft a first round QB on a rookie contract (I wanted Herbert this season) and use the money saved on Prescott to be used on a pass rusher in free agency like Za'darius Smith, a top Safety and a coverage corner.

In hindsight would I want the Lawrence contract on the books...of course not, nobody would but that's been and gone. We can't really change that now as realistically who is going to trade for him on that contract with his shoulder history?

We need to stop the bleeding at some point to improve the roster, especially on the defensive side and it either starts with Prescott or...it's rinse and repeat.

Lawrence was playing at a high level before the big contract. But not at the level he got paid for, he got paid like a 20 sack, Von Miller-level player. You could make the argument that he was on the upswing, and like the arguments for paying Dak $40 mil now, that the contract will be a relative bargain in a few years.

Just shows that hindsight is still 20-20, there's not a single person on this site that if they were the Cowboys' GM, would make every decision perfectly. There's been too many bad decisions of course, but at least we're not like the Jets, haven't been in the SB for 50+ years and competitive very few of the years in between, or the Lions with no playoff wins for near 30 years.

If you can't stand the Cowboys being bad, then find another team to bandwagon with....

 

[LACowboysFan1]

You mean like this?

Like said, didn't play it well. Only rushed 3, backed too far off and let Hill get a running start after the catch....

 

[Dorsett33]

And did what in the 2nd and 3rd? A game is more than just the 1st and 4th quarter.

Sooner or later some of you will be saying, what did he do from 12:02 to 4:45 of the 3rd quarter...smh.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Sooner or later some of you will be saying, what did he do from 12:02 to 4:45 of the 3rd quarter...smh.

You cannot seriously think that there is no problem with an offense that just disappears during large parts of the game and then yell that the defense sucks. Yea I get that the defense sucks, it’s like beating a dead horse, how that absolves the offense of their mistakes and their play is rather fantastic

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The previous three seasons Wentz had thrown 81 touchdowns to 21 interceptions. Pretty much a 4:1 TD/INT ratio. That's impressive to me. He was also the overwhelming league MVP favourite with the bookies (4/11 from memory) until he blew his knee out with 2-3 games remaining in 2017/18. Wentz has historically had injury issues. Those are all statements of fact without any emotional bias either way.

How do you expect the defense to perform with the vast majority of investment in terms of premium picks and % of the salary cap invested into the offense? Especially after we let an All Pro Corner walk who we had drafted! You couldn't make this up.

its not just having invested premium in resources to offense and not defense.
Taco was a first round pick
LVE was a first round pick
Chidobe was a 2nd round pick
Jaylon was a second round pick
Hill is a second round pick
Gregory was a 2nd round pick
20M/year to Lawrence
64 M contract to Jaylon
9M/year to crawford.
6M to griffin
6th round pick for Quinn
$5M to Poe

and the only pick that played close to his pick status was Byron Jones and he is no longer here....

and on the coaching side, Jones steps in and forces Kellen Moore on the team an unproven coach. yet, we let Eberflus who we trained and had in house walk so we keep Marinelli and then the next year bring in Richard who turned into a disaster

it seems that we have missed on every defensive investment. non is paying off. we have invested similarly on the offensive side and at least we are seeing some returns on those $'s and draft picks.

not sure what the issue is with our investments in the defensive side.

 

[cowboysfan99]

I don't know what it is, but there are always huge stretches where the offense disappears or goes turnover crazy while watching the other team rattle off 20+ unanswered points. Then by the time they start playing with any sense of urgency it's too late. I don't know if that's on Dak or what, but of course part of that is on the defense as well.

2019: Packers scored 24 unanswered, Jets built a 21-3 lead, Bills scored 26 unanswered, Bears scored 24 unanswered
2020: Falcons scored 20 unanswered, Browns scored 34 unanswered

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I don't know what it is, but there are always huge stretches where the offense disappears or goes turnover crazy while watching the other team rattle off 20+ unanswered points. Then by the time they start playing with any sense of urgency it's too late. I don't know if that's on Dak or what, but of course part of that is on the defense as well.

2019: Packers scored 24 unanswered, Jets built a 21-3 lead, Bills scored 26 unanswered, Bears scored 24 unanswered
2020: Falcons scored 20 unanswered, Browns scored 34 unanswered

the cleveland game was the one game when we didn't score two consecutive quarters.....so not sure what you mean by huge stretches, unless you expect scoring in every quarter, every game.

and yes, it bothers me too that the defense can't get off the field and gives up score after score after score....same game....first 8 drives. cleveland scored 7 times....

defense has to make a stop...just think we could be a bad defense. give up 31 points per game and be 3-1...... 31 POINTS a game would have had us at 3-1

 

[cowboysfan99]

the cleveland game was the one game when we didn't score two consecutive quarters.....so not sure what you mean by huge stretches, unless you expect scoring in every quarter, every game.

What I'm saying is with all the talent we have on offense then they should be able to get some points on the board and stop the momentum rather than letting teams rattle off 20+ points and putting the game out of reach. Of course a lot of the time the offense is the problem with their turnnovers.

 

[75boyz]

its not just having invested premium in resources to offense and not defense.
Taco was a first round pick
LVE was a first round pick
Chidobe was a 2nd round pick
Jaylon was a second round pick
Hill is a second round pick
Gregory was a 2nd round pick
20M/year to Lawrence
64 M contract to Jaylon
9M/year to crawford.
6M to griffin
6th round pick for Quinn
$5M to Poe

and the only pick that played close to his pick status was Byron Jones and he is no longer here....

and on the coaching side, Jones steps in and forces Kellen Moore on the team an unproven coach. yet, we let Eberflus who we trained and had in house walk so we keep Marinelli and then the next year bring in Richard who turned into a disaster

it seems that we have missed on every defensive investment. non is paying off. we have invested similarly on the offensive side and at least we are seeing some returns on those $'s and draft picks.

not sure what the issue is with our investments in the defensive side.

I made a very similar post speaking on this same topic. Whether the round taken or the subsequent development of said player on the defensive side, the offensive counterparts being picked high have mostly developed and matched their draft status and dare I say at least come close to earning their second contracts.

I further lamented on whether it's the poor defensive coaching or possibly even McClays defensive scouts just aren't as good as the offensive ones in spotting true defensive talent in general.

As you and I say/have said, investment capital on the defensive sside is being made. Return on Investment is absolutely unacceptable.

Great Post. Totally Agree.

Go Cowboys

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

What I'm saying is with all the talent we have on offense then they should be able to get some points on the board and stop the momentum rather than letting teams rattle off 20+ points and putting the game out of reach. Of course a lot of the time the offense is the problem with their turnnovers.

oh no, now you done it

 

[Swagger]

Lawrence was playing at a high level before the big contract. But not at the level he got paid for, he got paid like a 20 sack, Von Miller-level player. You could make the argument that he was on the upswing, and like the arguments for paying Dak $40 mil now, that the contract will be a relative bargain in a few years.

Just shows that hindsight is still 20-20, there's not a single person on this site that if they were the Cowboys' GM, would make every decision perfectly. There's been too many bad decisions of course, but at least we're not like the Jets, haven't been in the SB for 50+ years and competitive very few of the years in between, or the Lions with no playoff wins for near 30 years.

If you can't stand the Cowboys being bad, then find another team to bandwagon with....

I agree re Lawrence but my only gripe was that he had a serious shoulder injury that required surgery yet they still paid him and he hasn't been the same since. I can understand why they paid him but my point is if they keep on doing it then we won't win anything.

 

[75boyz]

Lawrence was playing at a high level before the big contract. But not at the level he got paid for, he got paid like a 20 sack, Von Miller-level player. You could make the argument that he was on the upswing, and like the arguments for paying Dak $40 mil now, that the contract will be a relative bargain in a few years.

Just shows that hindsight is still 20-20, there's not a single person on this site that if they were the Cowboys' GM, would make every decision perfectly. There's been too many bad decisions of course, but at least we're not like the Jets, haven't been in the SB for 50+ years and competitive very few of the years in between, or the Lions with no playoff wins for near 30 years.

If you can't stand the Cowboys being bad, then find another team to bandwagon with....

True that. Cheers bro.

I mean it "only" took the Chiefs 50 years between trophies. So there's that.

I mean, what's another 25, right? Lol

Go Cowboys

 

[Aviano90]

I don't know what it is, but there are always huge stretches where the offense disappears or goes turnover crazy while watching the other team rattle off 20+ unanswered points. Then by the time they start playing with any sense of urgency it's too late. I don't know if that's on Dak or what, but of course part of that is on the defense as well.

2019: Packers scored 24 unanswered, Jets built a 21-3 lead, Bills scored 26 unanswered, Bears scored 24 unanswered
2020: Falcons scored 20 unanswered, Browns scored 34 unanswered

Seems like it happens regardless of who the players are:
2011 - Detroit goes on 31-3 run after falling behind 24 points; Philadelphia scores 34 points to start the game. NY jumps out to 21-0 lead in the NFC East Championship game.
2012 - Seattle scores final 17 points of game as offense is held scoreless for the last 2.5 quarters of the game, NY jumps out to 23-0 lead
2013 - SD scores final 20 points of game as defense was scoreless in 2nd half; NO scored 28 straight points in 2nd and 3rd quarters to open up commanding lead; Chicago scored 28 straight points to open up commanding lead; GB outscored the Cowboys 34-10 in the 2nd half to win in comeback fashion.
2014 - SF opened up a 28-3 lead to start game;
2015 - Carolina opened up a 23-3 lead to start game

It's like Groundhog's Day man.

 

[Dorsett33]

You cannot seriously think that there is no problem with an offense that just disappears during large parts of the game and then yell that the defense sucks. Yea I get that the defense sucks, it’s like beating a dead horse, how that absolves the offense of their mistakes and their play is rather fantastic

No...I don't think the offense is as bad. Questionable playcalling, a few turnovers, inconsistent o-line, bad runs, bad throws, bad drops. That's part of football. Those things will happen. Just like on defense, there will be dropped ints, missed fumbles, bad reads etc. What I'm talking about is the defense is CONSISTENTLY bad. If our offense was so bad we wouldn't be coming back to make a game of it. You're not going to get ANY offense that is going to score EVERY TIME you get the ball. It's not realistic of ANY football team.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

No...I don't think the offense is as bad. Questionable playcalling, a few turnovers, inconsistent o-line, bad runs, bad throws, bad drops. That's part of football. Those things will happen. Just like on defense, there will be dropped ints, missed fumbles, bad reads etc. What I'm talking about is the defense is CONSISTENTLY bad. If our offense was so bad we wouldn't be coming back to make a game of it. You're not going to get ANY offense that is going to score EVERY TIME you get the ball. It's not realistic of ANY football team.

Ah yes, questionable play calling. Funny how that doesn’t seem to be an issue when the teams back off and start coasting to the finish line. I get that bad throws and drops are part of football, however only bad and undisciplined teams lose the turnover battle. Only bad teams lose the penalty battle. The whole team sucks - yes there are pockets of good players like the WR group, but for every one of those there are quite a few that are subpar to terrible.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Anyone recall over the last several years people on this forum would claim that the Dallas prevent D was designed to prevent a win.