One Draft Pick changes everything next year

Kaiser

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So tomorrow night when you are on your 7th beer watching the Dallas OL give up its 14th sack, fear not. For next year the team will be more talented than this year but with an offseason to learn the defense.

Next year the offense gets back three Pro Bowl level players, plus Jarwin, plus Martin is back this week. The best group of WRs in the NFL returns (Lamb will be even better) and the other two OL Williams and Biadasz will each be 24 years old but solid starters by that point. The major concern is obviously the OTs returning but nothing about Collins seems to show a long term problem and plenty of elite OTs have missed seasons like Tyron Smith – with Jason Peters (currently starting at age 38) a good example.

On defense the young DL will develop (Gallimore, Hill, Gregory, Anae), Aldon Smith likely returns and the DL will finally develop some continuity in the new scheme. Diggs will be playing at a #1 CB level next year after taking his lumps this year (while showing above average athletic skills).


The rest of the secondary will be rebuilt but one draft pick can completely change the landscape. Dallas looks to have a draft pick around the 5th to 10th spot, look at the players taken there in the last four years:

Pick 9 CJ Henderson, #6 Jamal Adams, #11 Marshon Lattimore, #5 Jalen Ramsey and #11 Minkah Fitzpatrick.

There are a ton of older veteran Safeties who could be signed to fill a spot in the secondary for a cap hit of 4 – 7 Million:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/safety/

The second round pick gets you a player who can join the secondary rotation at a minimum and probably start (Diggs, Awuzie, etc).

Another free agent (like Cam Fleming) and the third round pick gets you solid depth at OT. Recent 3rd round picks at OT range from decent backups to above average starters:

Pick 74 Geron Christian, #83 Orlando Brown, # Shon Coleman.

But most of the year to year improvement comes from both lines developing cohesion in a new system and the young players developing with more reps (like Schultz and Hill did this year).

Trolls, rev your engines.

But don’t say we will blow the draft picks after we got Lamb and Diggs this year with much later picks.

And don’t say we don’t have the cap space, even at a 175 Million cap and franchise tagging Prescott we still have 15 Million left over before any restructuring moves (Aldon Smith and conceivably Sean Lee are the only players in UFA we would want to resign).
 

Kaiser

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Starters/Depth


QB – Dak, Looch
RB – Zeke, Pollard
TE – Jarwin, Schultz, Bell
WR – Cooper, Gallup, Lamb, Wilson, Brown
OT – Tyron Smith, #3 Draft Pick
OG – Williams, McGovern
C – Biadasz
OG – Martin
OT – La’el Collins, Free Agent Swing Tackle

DE – Dlaw, Dorance Armstrong
DT – Hill, Vet FA
DT – Gallimore, Woods
DE – Aldon Smith, Gregory, Anae
MLB – LVE
WLB – Jaylon
SLB – Joe Thomas

CB – Diggs
CB - #1 or #2 Pick
CB – Brown
Safety – #1 or #2 Pick
Safety – Vet FA
 

JBS

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Starters/Depth


QB – Dak, Looch
RB – Zeke, Pollard
TE – Jarwin, Schultz, Bell
WR – Cooper, Gallup, Lamb, Wilson, Brown
OT – Tyron Smith, #3 Draft Pick
OG – Williams, McGovern
C – Biadasz
OG – Martin
OT – La’el Collins, Free Agent Swing Tackle

DE – Dlaw, Dorance Armstrong
DT – Hill, Vet FA
DT – Gallimore, Woods
DE – Aldon Smith, Gregory, Anae
MLB – LVE
WLB – Jaylon
SLB – Joe Thomas

CB – Diggs
CB - #1 or #2 Pick
CB – Brown
Safety – #1 or #2 Pick
Safety – Vet FA


How about this instead

Replace hill
Replace gallimore
Replace Jaylon
Replace LVE
Replace brown

And maybe now we can think about being competent on defense
 

Ranched

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Unless these players improve their play significantly, Dallas needs to trade Lewis, Woods, Thompson, & possibly Crawford.

And if Dallas isn’t going to extend Awuzie & Smith, then they might as well trade them, too. Not only will Dallas receive some draft capital in return, but it will allow the rookies & other young players to play & develop.
 

Kaiser

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This guy thinks Gregory, Hill, Gallimore and Anae are going to help turn this defense around..

Nope, I think the main issues has been the defense learning the scheme and breakdowns in the secondary. I think they have a Pro Bowler at one DE and will get decent reps for three spots out of Dorance Armstrong, Hill, Gallimore, Woods, Aldon Smith, Gregory, Anae and a veteran FA DT.

Which is why, you know, I wrote that.
 

MonsterD

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No one is going to take a safety with the #3-#5 pick overall unless he is Ronnie Lott or Sean Taylor clone.
 

fivetwos

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Unless these players improve their play significantly, Dallas needs to trade Lewis, Woods, Thompson, & possibly Crawford.

And if Dallas isn’t going to extend Awuzie & Smith, then they might as well trade them, too. Not only will Dallas receive some draft capital in return, but it will allow the rookies & other young players to play & develop.
They probably shopped all of those players and got either no offers or 7ths.

Awuzie has the most value and hasnt gotten back on the field. Maybe he is worth a 6th but not on IR.

No one wants those other guys. They are terrible. I've known it and said it for a while but it isnt about me.

Better off keeping them on the miracle they figure out how to play in the next few weeks. That's pretty much the Jones philosophy....hope it turns around.
 

Kaiser

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No one is going to take a safety with the #3-#5 pick overall unless he is Ronnie Lott or Sean Taylor clone.

I'm assuming our pick is between 5 - 10. If our pick is at 3, I think they would trade down to pick up more high picks and that would be even better.

A CB around pick #8, high second round picks at Safety and DT, along with a third round OT and its even better.

One of the key points is that we don't need a dominant defense, only an average one with the offense we have.
 

MonsterD

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I'm assuming our pick is between 5 - 10. If our pick is at 3, I think they would trade down to pick up more high picks and that would be even better.

A CB around pick #8, high second round picks at Safety and DT, along with a third round OT and its even better.

One of the key points is that we don't need a dominant defense, only an average one with the offense we have.
I assume we will pick #3 -#8 but yeah could be a CB for sure.
 

fivetwos

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Not being a wise guy....asking because I dont know.

How has Okudah done in Det so far?

I've personally never like taking corners very high because of the rules. Deck is stacked when they walk onto the field.
 

Kaiser

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Aren't two free agents after this year ?

All four are FA's. Its possible that Woods and Crawford come back as depth on minimum contracts but I doubt it. I think Lewis is gone for sure and I never understood why Thompson was still here in the first place.
 

baltcowboy

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So tomorrow night when you are on your 7th beer watching the Dallas OL give up its 14th sack, fear not. For next year the team will be more talented than this year but with an offseason to learn the defense.

Next year the offense gets back three Pro Bowl level players, plus Jarwin, plus Martin is back this week. The best group of WRs in the NFL returns (Lamb will be even better) and the other two OL Williams and Biadasz will each be 24 years old but solid starters by that point. The major concern is obviously the OTs returning but nothing about Collins seems to show a long term problem and plenty of elite OTs have missed seasons like Tyron Smith – with Jason Peters (currently starting at age 38) a good example.

On defense the young DL will develop (Gallimore, Hill, Gregory, Anae), Aldon Smith likely returns and the DL will finally develop some continuity in the new scheme. Diggs will be playing at a #1 CB level next year after taking his lumps this year (while showing above average athletic skills).


The rest of the secondary will be rebuilt but one draft pick can completely change the landscape. Dallas looks to have a draft pick around the 5th to 10th spot, look at the players taken there in the last four years:

Pick 9 CJ Henderson, #6 Jamal Adams, #11 Marshon Lattimore, #5 Jalen Ramsey and #11 Minkah Fitzpatrick.

There are a ton of older veteran Safeties who could be signed to fill a spot in the secondary for a cap hit of 4 – 7 Million:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/safety/

The second round pick gets you a player who can join the secondary rotation at a minimum and probably start (Diggs, Awuzie, etc).

Another free agent (like Cam Fleming) and the third round pick gets you solid depth at OT. Recent 3rd round picks at OT range from decent backups to above average starters:

Pick 74 Geron Christian, #83 Orlando Brown, # Shon Coleman.

But most of the year to year improvement comes from both lines developing cohesion in a new system and the young players developing with more reps (like Schultz and Hill did this year).

Trolls, rev your engines.

But don’t say we will blow the draft picks after we got Lamb and Diggs this year with much later picks.

And don’t say we don’t have the cap space, even at a 175 Million cap and franchise tagging Prescott we still have 15 Million left over before any restructuring moves (Aldon Smith and conceivably Sean Lee are the only players in UFA we would want to resign).
If we finish 4-12 or below the Joneses have to consider lots of options. First we don’t know the salary cap for next season. We don’t know if Dak will take our contract offer, and we don’t know what the Joneses will think of MM at the end of the season. So making a team depth chart for next season makes no sense right now. At this very moment the Joneses are probably agreeing with you. If we finish 4-12 half the team might gone.
 

Kaiser

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So making a team depth chart for next season makes no sense right now.

Making sense has never been a requirement for starting threads here and it won't be anytime soon.

We know we will get three Pro Bowl caliber players back on offense next year, plus Martin this week, plus Jarwin.

We know most of the young players will improve with reps and time to learn the new defense.

We know we only need an average defense to be a playoff team.

We know Dallas will start next year with 70 Million dollars available under the currently listed cap number, so even if they drop it to the 175MM number everyone expects, we can still franchise tag Dak and still have 15 Million left over before restructures.
 

kumizi

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They need about 5-6 new starters on defense (at least) and the three big time offensive linemen to stay healthy.

One draft pick isn't going to do jack ****.

If you assume Tyron can finally stay healthy and you hit on three defensive starters with your first three draft picks, there's some hope. But those are big IFs.
 

baltcowboy

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Making sense has never been a requirement for starting threads here and it won't be anytime soon.

We know we will get three Pro Bowl caliber players back on offense next year, plus Martin this week, plus Jarwin.

We know most of the young players will improve with reps and time to learn the new defense.

We know we only need an average defense to be a playoff team.

We know Dallas will start next year with 70 Million dollars available under the currently listed cap number, so even if they drop it to the 175MM number everyone expects, we can still franchise tag Dak and still have 15 Million left over before restructures.
We will see. I like your optimism.
 
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