Cowboys need to resign Dak before Baker and Josh Allen reset the market

[ABQCOWBOY]

No, I’m saying the Cap will increase in coming years.

The Cap probably will increase in coming years but how many years will it take? That's the problem and I feel like we've covered this already. If Dak gets his way, it's a four year deal. We have already been told that the cap is decreasing this year, significantly according to reports. Now, even if the current situations ends this next season, which lets be honest, it's doubtful that it will, the NFL would have to enjoy a year of growth that exceeds their largest growth rate in modern NFL history, by 3x, just to get even. The economy is not going to come roaring back any time soon IMO, we are apparently going to continue to see lockdowns for the immediate future so that means that consumers will likely not be back in stadiums spending discretionary money anytime soon. Now, we know that owners are spending money to keep the sport floating along. That money being spent now is not simply going to be written off b the owners. The CBA allows for cap to be manipulated, shrunk or simply frozen for a number of yours, in order for the NFL to recompense these losses. Remember, cap increase is based on profits so it can be treated as a fluid situation by the league or owners. The owners will get their money back so that will mean that cap, even if the very unlikely events I describe above were to happen, it's likely that we will see no increase in two to three season. That means that our cap will be over extended for almost the entirety of the deal we would sign with Dak. So where, exactly, do we see relief come in on this scenario?

Lastly, pay attention to the Romo deal and how that was worked. Look at the circumstances around how Todd France and Tony Romo worked that. You will find that Tony got extended to yet another monster deal before he ever reached the conclusion of his first contract. This will happen with Dak as well, assuming we can afford it because, as I've tried to explain many times over, this is what France tries to create in all of his negotiations with all of his clients. If he can get you in this situation, it's only a matter of time and you are either spending money you don't have or you are losing the player at the end of 4 years. So, are you willing to sign Dak to a deal, a record deal, and are you actually seeing any possible way, under the circumstances, that we can build a team around him, that will allow for him to win a championship? I mean, if we sign him to this deal, we are going to lose more good players because the money is not going to be there to retain them all. Do you believe that we will be able to find and develop enough good young players to allow us to build a team around him? We couldn't do it with Romo, do you believe that we will be able to do it with Dak Prescott? I don't see that happening but that just my own opinion.

 

[Jarv]

Hey Jarv, how you been? I don't think I've spoken with you since Xmas or New Year. I hope you had a great holiday season old buddy!

Ditto, hope all is well with you and yours!

 

[IceStar-D7]

These two will NOT reset anything much less the money market.

 

[CWR]

The Cap probably will increase in coming years but how many years will it take? That's the problem and I feel like we've covered this already. If Dak gets his way, it's a four year deal. We have already been told that the cap is decreasing this year, significantly according to reports. Now, even if the current situations ends this next season, which lets be honest, it's doubtful that it will, the NFL would have to enjoy a year of growth that exceeds their largest growth rate in modern NFL history, by 3x, just to get even. The economy is not going to come roaring back any time soon IMO, we are apparently going to continue to see lockdowns for the immediate future so that means that consumers will likely not be back in stadiums spending discretionary money anytime soon. Now, we know that owners are spending money to keep the sport floating along. That money being spent now is not simply going to be written off b the owners. The CBA allows for cap to be manipulated, shrunk or simply frozen for a number of yours, in order for the NFL to recompense these losses. Remember, cap increase is based on profits so it can be treated as a fluid situation by the league or owners. The owners will get their money back so that will mean that cap, even if the very unlikely events I describe above were to happen, it's likely that we will see no increase in two to three season. That means that our cap will be over extended for almost the entirety of the deal we would sign with Dak. So where, exactly, do we see relief come in on this scenario?

Lastly, pay attention to the Romo deal and how that was worked. Look at the circumstances around how Todd France and Tony Romo worked that. You will find that Tony got extended to yet another monster deal before he ever reached the conclusion of his first contract. This will happen with Dak as well, assuming we can afford it because, as I've tried to explain many times over, this is what France tries to create in all of his negotiations with all of his clients. If he can get you in this situation, it's only a matter of time and you are either spending money you don't have or you are losing the player at the end of 4 years. So, are you willing to sign Dak to a deal, a record deal, and are you actually seeing any possible way, under the circumstances, that we can build a team around him, that will allow for him to win a championship? I mean, if we sign him to this deal, we are going to lose more good players because the money is not going to be there to retain them all. Do you believe that we will be able to find and develop enough good young players to allow us to build a team around him? We couldn't do it with Romo, do you believe that we will be able to do it with Dak Prescott? I don't see that happening but that just my own opinion.

Who are these great players we are losing? Seriously, I dont see anyone we cant live without walking away within the next few years. I suppose you can make the argument we cant go out and get any FAs, but we don't do that anyway. Besides that I've seen too many teams manipulate the cap to their advantage. Im not saying its a good idea to be financially irresponsible, just that there are obviously way to maneuver.

 

[Diehardblues]

The Cap probably will increase in coming years but how many years will it take? That's the problem and I feel like we've covered this already. If Dak gets his way, it's a four year deal. We have already been told that the cap is decreasing this year, significantly according to reports. Now, even if the current situations ends this next season, which lets be honest, it's doubtful that it will, the NFL would have to enjoy a year of growth that exceeds their largest growth rate in modern NFL history, by 3x, just to get even. The economy is not going to come roaring back any time soon IMO, we are apparently going to continue to see lockdowns for the immediate future so that means that consumers will likely not be back in stadiums spending discretionary money anytime soon. Now, we know that owners are spending money to keep the sport floating along. That money being spent now is not simply going to be written off b the owners. The CBA allows for cap to be manipulated, shrunk or simply frozen for a number of yours, in order for the NFL to recompense these losses. Remember, cap increase is based on profits so it can be treated as a fluid situation by the league or owners. The owners will get their money back so that will mean that cap, even if the very unlikely events I describe above were to happen, it's likely that we will see no increase in two to three season. That means that our cap will be over extended for almost the entirety of the deal we would sign with Dak. So where, exactly, do we see relief come in on this scenario?

Lastly, pay attention to the Romo deal and how that was worked. Look at the circumstances around how Todd France and Tony Romo worked that. You will find that Tony got extended to yet another monster deal before he ever reached the conclusion of his first contract. This will happen with Dak as well, assuming we can afford it because, as I've tried to explain many times over, this is what France tries to create in all of his negotiations with all of his clients. If he can get you in this situation, it's only a matter of time and you are either spending money you don't have or you are losing the player at the end of 4 years. So, are you willing to sign Dak to a deal, a record deal, and are you actually seeing any possible way, under the circumstances, that we can build a team around him, that will allow for him to win a championship? I mean, if we sign him to this deal, we are going to lose more good players because the money is not going to be there to retain them all. Do you believe that we will be able to find and develop enough good young players to allow us to build a team around him? We couldn't do it with Romo, do you believe that we will be able to do it with Dak Prescott? I don't see that happening but that just my own opinion.

Most experts believe we will be back closer to normal with fans in attendance by the fall 2021.

And remember they are adding a 17th game in 2021 which definitely add to the TV revenue.

The new Collective Bargaining agreement has increased minimum salaries and increase in players share in 2021. Here’s the link with all the details.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28906786/nfl-players-approve-new-cba-2030

Don’t forget the Networks contract is due in 2022 which with additional games likely to increase.

 

[Verdict]

35 was the ceiling last year. It’s probably gone up this year closer to 40.

How do you figure that if the cap for each team goes down next year?

 

[Diehardblues]

How do you figure that if the cap for each team goes down next year?

First of all I can’t imagine him taking less than 37.7 Tag. And I’m not sure how much the Cap will go down as they add 17th game next season and 2021 Collective Bargaining agreements will kick in with minimum wages going up and players share of revenue increasing from 47 to 48%.

And looking ahead in 2023 the Networks TV contract will be coming up for renewal which with additional games the revenue will be increasing and why Dak only wanted a 4 year deal last year.

I’ll be shocked if Dak takes less than the 4 year deal Watson signed in September averaging 39 million.

Personally I don’t necessarily believe either QB is worth it but this is the current market for these type of Franchise QB’s. If we wanted to sign Dak for less we should have extended him long before his Rookie contract ran out.

 

[Hoofbite]

The Browns would be stupid to give Baker any sort of deal that "resets" the market. Dallas would be stupid to give Dak a deal that resets the market, and I've even say Buffalo would be stupid.

They've all played well (at times), but there's a hell of a big difference between them and the last guy that "set the market".

Of the 3, I like Josh Allen the most. I think his play this year has been head and shoulders above the best play we've seen from both Dak and Baker. Even still, he isn't Mahomes.

 

[Diehardblues]

The Browns would be stupid to give Baker any sort of deal that "resets" the market. Dallas would be stupid to give Dak a deal that resets the market, and I've even say Buffalo would be stupid.

They've all played well (at times), but there's a hell of a big difference between them and the last guy that "set the market".

Of the 3, I like Josh Allen the most. I think his play this year has been head and shoulders above the best play we've seen from both Dak and Baker. Even still, he isn't Mahomes.

These other QB’s have similar value to their teams. Rarely is what or who is considered the best QB the highest paid. It changes almost every year pending the current market.

Fans have a false sense thinking that there’s a new bar since Mahomes is considered best QB and he has the newest biggest contract. That’s not how the league has worked over the years.

Mahomes won’t be the highest paid QB very long. You watch. And in a 3 -5 years he’ll be looking to renegotiate his deal.

 

[Shane612]

What smart teams in your opinion are not paying their quarterback a lot of money and having astounding success?

What makes you think Dak is worth $40,000,000.00 per?

 

[FVSTONE]

Josh Allen and even Baker Mayfield are expected to command north of 38~40 million per year.

These are quarterbacks who both have career passer ratings over 10 ENTIRE points less than Dak (although Josh Allen has been improving)

That laughable 40 million per year price tag is going to be considered a steal in just 1 to 2 off seasons

They're both leading their teams to victories over playoff bound teams, while Dak struggles mightily against BOTTOM FEEDERS. Hell, Dak hasn't lead this team against an average team in more than 2 years.

 

[Hoofbite]

These other QB’s have similar value to their teams. Rarely is what or who is considered the best QB the highest paid. It changes almost every year pending the current market.

Fans have a false sense thinking that there’s a new bar since Mahomes is considered best QB and he has the newest biggest contract. That’s not how the league has worked over the years.

Mahomes won’t be the highest paid QB very long. You watch. And in a 3 -5 years he’ll be looking to renegotiate his deal.

Yes, contracts increase every year. That's generally how the salary cap works. 3-5 years is a long time in NFL contract terms. These guys are up for new deals in 1 or 2, and the gap is big enough to where I would find it hard to believe either will exceed $45M/year within the next 2 offseasons. The Browns and Bills would be completely foolish to believe they have what KC has.

 

[T-RO]

Most experts believe we will be back closer to normal with fans in attendance by the fall 2021.

In terms of national health--should hopefully be mostly clear next fall, but that doesn't undo the damage.

-Lots of middle class folks out of work
-Lots of business closings
-Lots of companies having less discretionary money for luxury suites
-Fewer companies to belly up for high-cost advertising. Consider the airlines, for instance.

It's an open question how the league's revenues will trend.

Sadly the one area where the NFL and it's partners are rolling in money is w/ gambling connections and related advertising. I say 'sadly' as I view it as a predatory business practice that takes from the poor and loads up the rich.

 

[CowboyoWales]

These other QB’s have similar value to their teams. Rarely is what or who is considered the best QB the highest paid. It changes almost every year pending the current market.

Fans have a false sense thinking that there’s a new bar since Mahomes is considered best QB and he has the newest biggest contract. That’s not how the league has worked over the years.

Mahomes won’t be the highest paid QB very long. You watch. And in a 3 -5 years he’ll be looking to renegotiate his deal.

Having a "market setting" QB is no guarantee for success, especially as most are paid on what they've done, not what they're expected to do (check the list).

In the last 5 years NONE of the 3 highest paid QB's of that year has won the SB. Only one of those 15 QB's has got to the SB and only 5 of them had winning seasons.

Paying QB's for the sake of it and because "market setting" dictates it's a next man up is just counter productive.

 

[CowboyoWales]

What makes you think Dak is worth $40,000,000.00 per?

Or worth $40m to a team that's going to lose because we cant outscore the 2 dime and a nickle Defensive output.

So many teams now struggling because of the lack of talent around the expensive QB: Steelers (last night), Falcons, Texans, Eagles, Seahawks,

With our woeful defense it's time to question whether paying Dak actually makes us a winning team.... I think a lot of Dak fans don't want to confront that elephant.

 

[Diehardblues]

Having a "market setting" QB is no guarantee for success, especially as most are paid on what they've done, not what they're expected to do (check the list).

In the last 5 years NONE of the 3 highest paid QB's of that year has won the SB. Only one of those 15 QB's has got to the SB and only 5 of them had winning seasons.

Paying QB's for the sake of it and because "market setting" dictates it's a next man up is just counter productive.

I’m not endorsing market setting value is a sound endeavor. Just that it has become a fairly common practice in the NFL when it comes to QB’s .

 

[Diehardblues]

Yes, contracts increase every year. That's generally how the salary cap works. 3-5 years is a long time in NFL contract terms. These guys are up for new deals in 1 or 2, and the gap is big enough to where I would find it hard to believe either will exceed $45M/year within the next 2 offseasons. The Browns and Bills would be completely foolish to believe they have what KC has.

They don’t have to believe they have what the Chiefs do. That’s not what market value is all about.

The next market setting contract doesn’t have to be a better QB than Mahomes and where fans are misguided. They only have to be worth as much or more to the team.

If Baltimore with Jackson or Allen with Buffalo for example determine their QB’s are as valuable to their success as Mahomes is to the Chiefs success then we could certainly see contracts as much or more.

Market settings contracts aren’t necessarily about who’s the best talent . Fans are identifying only because we portray Mahomes as the best with the current biggest contract. But this isn’t always the case.

 

[Denim Chicken]

If he can’t win a playoff game he doesn’t deserve 50.

That didn't age well

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Who are these great players we are losing? Seriously, I dont see anyone we cant live without walking away within the next few years. I suppose you can make the argument we cant go out and get any FAs, but we don't do that anyway. Besides that I've seen too many teams manipulate the cap to their advantage. Im not saying its a good idea to be financially irresponsible, just that there are obviously way to maneuver.

Well, off the top of my head, Gallup has a contract coming up, Connor Williams has one coming up, Randy Gregory, LVE, I think Schultz might have one coming up, the team has over 20 FAs this next year that will need to be resigned or backfilled. So if you don't think we need a full roster, OK, but we aren't good now so how you gonna get better by not retaining these other guys who are young starters for us?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Most experts believe we will be back closer to normal with fans in attendance by the fall 2021.

And remember they are adding a 17th game in 2021 which definitely add to the TV revenue.

The new Collective Bargaining agreement has increased minimum salaries and increase in players share in 2021. Here’s the link with all the details.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28906786/nfl-players-approve-new-cba-2030

Don’t forget the Networks contract is due in 2022 which with additional games likely to increase.

Who are most experts?

The new CBA may increase the percentages by one percent but it's still based on profits so if profits are down, which they are across the board, it won't represent an increase in cap.

I think it's foolish to bet on what might happen with a new TV Deal, at this point. I mean, the quality of football I've seen this season is not better IMO. Paying more for this product and consequently passing that on to consumers is not a sure fire success IMO. I don't think I would pay more for Football at this point. Just not worth it to me. But there again, that's basically the same kind of thought process we saw last year. The Cap will never go down, we were told. Well, it's going down. The future is not set in stone and I think it would be beyond stupid to bet everything on the idea that the NFL is not going to change. So far, every single thing in my life has changed to a certain extent. Why would the NFL be any different?