CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[Ken]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

I like the value at 26 if he is BPA.

I think the days of top 10 rbs is over.....never makes sense.

 

[JIMMYBUFFETT]

Yes, I would absolutely be willing to pass on a RB with a first round grade. It’s crystal clear, you get very little value at the RB position in round one compared to other positions. For example, OL, DL, even WRs have much better value in the first round than RBs.

On top of that, recent history shows very few first round backs last more than 5-7 years at peak performance. A great OL or DL taken in round one gives you more years of value. It’s why taking a RB in round 2-5 makes much better sense in terms of value.

That's fine, but then you're reaching for a player while leaving higher rated talent on the board. You may have got better value but you didn't get a better player and the draft is about acquiring the best players not the best shelf life.

 

[kskboys]

like the value at 26 if he is BPA.

I think the days of top 10 rbs is over.....never makes sense.

It would have to be a very shallow draft to even consider it.

I tried to talk myself into liking the Zeke pick, but never really did. To me, that was the year to trade back, if a trade partner could be found.

 

[rambo2]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

26 is more like a 2nd round pick and Robinson could have a top 10 grade on him. It looks like he would have excellent value at 26.

 

[Bobhaze]

That's fine, but then you're reaching for a player while leaving higher rated talent on the board. You may have got better value but you didn't get a better player and the draft is about acquiring the best players not the best shelf life.

That’s a good point but value is a huge factor when making those decisions. All I’m saying is the likelihood of a RB giving you years of top performance is way less likely than many other positions. AND…you can get a great RB with just as good production in rounds 2-5.

 

[rambo2]

That’s a good point but value is a huge factor when making those decisions. All I’m saying is the likelihood of a RB giving you years of top performance is way less likely than many other positions. AND…you can get a great RB with just as good production in rounds 2-5.

Or you could get an average guy and the Eagles draft Robinson and he kills you for years.

 

[kskboys]

That’s a good point but value is a huge factor when making those decisions. All I’m saying is the likelihood of a RB giving you years of top performance is way less likely than many other positions. AND…you can get a great RB with just as good production in rounds 2-5.

That is why I'm also against drafting CBs high. Most become ineffective around the age of 30. Their shelf life is not long either.

That's also another reason to give major consideration to injury history when drafting, something we have yet to learn.

 

[CATCH17]

In our case it depends on what’s a available at 26. I see that pick as almost a 2nd anyways. Most of the NFL will have 15-18 first round grades. Having said that if Robinson from UT is there at 26 you have to take him. He will most definitely be the highest player on the board and he would be BPA.

Having said that I’m not franchising Pollard and than taking Robinson. That’s a waste IMO. I know you need two backs but that’s way too much.

The sad part of it is they won’t get rid of Zeke or TP until they know they have a RB. If that happens than we’re going into the draft having to draft one.

Exactly…

Bijan is one of the best players in the draft. Don’t lose out on a quality player just because he’s a RB.

Where we are picking it’s ok to take a RB. Keep him 5 years and let him go or trade.

 

[kskboys]

disagree....

straight up BPA is reserved for Day 3 picks.

With the first and second round pick you have to fit your team need without reaching. But running backs are a dime a dozen and you can get them anywhere. They are expendable and have a short shelf life.

Straight up BPA is an extremely foolish way to draft. That's how you get Taco.

 

[Creeper]

We should be thinking about what gets us to the Super Bowl, not who can win the rushing title.

Perhaps a RB can carry a team to the Super Bowl, but I have yet to see that.

I did not like the Zeke pick in 2016. I liked Zeke, but not a RB that high in the draft. I said the same thing about the Giant picking Barkley. Great RB, but the Giants haven't sniffed the Super Bowl with Barkley. I would argue Dexter Lawrence has done more for the Giants than Barkley. If the Giants get there one day it will be more because of Lawrence, and the OTs they have drafted than Barkley, as good as he is.

I am not convinced Bijon Robinson will be as good in the pros as he was in college. But I would not even risk the pick in the first simply because there are a lot of value pick at RB in the middle rounds.

 

[CATCH17]

Straight up BPA is an extremely foolish way to draft. That's how you get Taco.

That was the Cowboys letting a old guy pick a player instead of listening to the scouts.

Rod Marinelli wanted a player that was a system fit.

The scouts had TJ Watt rated higher.

 

[stinkface]

One thing I did notice on that chart about the top 3 rushers for the past 5 years, is that every one of the top 3 backs was either a round one or round two selection.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

 

[G2]

It's like fans have amnesia overvaluing RBs.

 

[kskboys]

We should be thinking about what gets us to the Super Bowl, not who can win the rushing title.

Perhaps a RB can carry a team to the Super Bowl, but I have yet to see that.

I did not like the Zeke pick in 2016. I liked Zeke, but not a RB that high in the draft. I said the same thing about the Giant picking Barkley. Great RB, but the Giants haven't sniffed the Super Bowl with Barkley. I would argue Dexter Lawrence has done more for the Giants than Barkley. If the Giants get there one day it will be more because of Lawrence, and the OTs they have drafted than Barkley, as good as he is.

I am not convinced Bijon Robinson will be as good in the pros as he was in college. But I would not even risk the pick in the first simply because there are a lot of value pick at RB in the middle rounds.

Yes you have. Marshawn Lynch.

Dancing slashers don't carry teams. Tough yards bashers do.

Legarratte Blount was part of carrying both NE and Philly to the super bowl.

 

[Risen Star]

I think if the Cowboys get with the 26th pick what the Raiders got with the 24th in 2019 they'll be very happy.

 

[kskboys]

That was the Cowboys letting a old guy pick a player instead of listening to the scouts.

Rod Marinelli wanted a player that was a system fit.

The scouts had TJ Watt rated higher.

If a team focuses on either BPA of need too much in drafting, it leads to major mistakes. Drafting is a science, w/ many factors to be considered. Using only one strategy is pure fan talk. No decent GM would draft that way, it would be foolish.

 

[calicowboy54]

unreal. hoping we don't return to the well this year. bijan or not, i'm not interested

Looking at that i see only 4 (Elliott,Fornett,Jabobs,McCafry) guys that have had multiple years of productivity, the rest had 1 - 2 years and then fell off the map Gurley being the main Eye sore after producing and getting that huge contract then failing and out of the league.

 

[kskboys]

I think if the Cowboys get with the 26th pick what the Raiders got with the 24th in 2019 they'll be very happy.

Absolutely. Jacobs is the type of RB who is easily worth a 1st. Too bad Raiders keep making other monumental mistakes limiting his value,

 

[CATCH17]

If a team focuses on either BPA of need too much in drafting, it leads to major mistakes. Drafting is a science, w/ many factors to be considered. Using only one strategy is pure fan talk. No decent GM would draft that way, it would be foolish.

Yeah people use these broad cliches.

At the end of the day you need to draft a player that’s good at football.

The player doesn’t have to be great but you need at least a solid player out of round 1.

The Cowboys draft so so well and it’s a shame they skip free agency and rely on rookies to put the team over the top from the previous year.

They ask way too much from their scouts and Rookies.

LVE, Lamb, Parsons, and Tyler Smith we’re all outstanding rookies but it’s never enough.

 

[Bobhaze]

I think if the Cowboys get with the 26th pick what the Raiders got with the 24th in 2019 they'll be very happy.

Taking a RB at 26th pick is so much better than 4th. The 4th pick needs to have a decade of impact. We won’t get that from the Zeke pick, which isn’t his fault. It’s just bad value unless you get a huge payoff early in that player’s career which in our case we didn’t. We got two WC wins out of that draft pick in essence.