CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[Vinnie2u]

I have seen that comparison but I have not seen that on tape. What am I missing?

Nothing Barry Sanders was a once in a lifetime talent. Bijan ain’t in the same galaxy.

 

[Proof]

That doesn't dismiss what he's done. He's arguably the best back in football.

I mean, this year possibly. there are three other years as well. and I mean he's been pretty good them as well, but first round impact good? you obviously want a second contract out of your first round pick, and they didn't even want an additional year. also wrt to the arguably, outside of mccafrey, none of the others in contention were first rounders which is the point of it all. but directly, would you like to draft bijan?

 

[G2]

They compare Robinson to Barry Sanders. If you put a Barry Sanders type talent on a good team, they very well could go over the top.

They're opposites. And if Robinson is generational, why would he be there anywhere near 26th?

 

[Proof]

The Raiders have gotten hit w/ the stupid stick. After making Carr ineligible the last couple of games, they've now come to him and asked him to extend the date(2/15) to receive his roster bonus. I have no idea what they're doing.

If Jacobs is available, he's the guy you pay.

well they're attempting to trade him and need additional time to avoid having to pay him while they do so. he's trying to force them to cut him outright.

 

[kskboys]

well they're attempting to trade him and need additional time to avoid having to pay him while they do so. he's trying to force them to cut him outright.

Obviously, but after what they did to him, to now ask a favor is the height of stupidity

 

[kskboys]

Nothing Barry Sanders was a once in a lifetime talent. Bijan ain’t in the same galaxy.

Why? What is his skillset?

 

[GuitarBytes]

It is no longer viable to select a RB in the first round, unless the offense is focused on a RB, and RBs are short-lived.

 

[Proof]

Obviously, but after what they did to him, to now ask a favor is the height of stupidity

oh gotcha. yeah.

 

[KJJ]

Too much of a passing league and too easy to find a good RB later in the draft to be investing a first round pick on one. Pollard was a fourth round draft pick. Plus the shelf life for an RB is short. Most teams are rotating RBs.

 

[InPhiltraitor]

We actually beat the Eagles.

And it took Gardner Minshew playing QB for the Cowboys to eek out a win @ home.

Regardless, the team's primary ball carrier was drafted 53rd. Given that they're playing this weekend, I don't think they could, or should, give a crap that Dallas beat them in regular season game.

 

[mattjames2010]

"Leading league in rushing" is a stupid standard and off the mark to base your entire OP on, though you came to the right conclusion.

 

[fivetwos]

I think it’s a lose/lose proposition.

Either your 1st round RB seriously under performs, or will pull a Cabo after year three.

After what Elliott did, there’s no way an agent will ever let a top performing RB play out the four years and the fifth year option.

So you’re stuck paying too much at the position and into the decline years, OR you’ll have to settle for three good years and tell the next one to stay in Cabo.

I’d rather have three similar backs than one clear starter anyway.

Also, I’d say it’s more about who is blocking than the back himself, so give me an OL in the first and the back with a later pick rather than the opposite.

Anyone who disagrees need not argue, you’ll get your way. Jerry still wants a star and jersuh sailer carrying the ball.

He isn’t going to want “nobody’s” or a RB by committee. He wants his stars. He swears that’s what works, and this is all about him.

 

[mattjames2010]

They compare Robinson to Barry Sanders. If you put a Barry Sanders type talent on a good team, they very well could go over the top.

If he was anything remotely close to Barry Sanders he wouldn't be projected outside the top 5.

This place has overrated Robinson greatly. He's not even a Barkley or Elliott type prospect.

 

[DFWJC]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

And really, if you do burn a 1st rounder, it absolutely should be late.
Where you take them is huge.

Draft value wise, a top 5 1st costs about about 3 times as much as a late 1st round…..in other worder, you could get 3 late firsts

 

[StylisticS]

Could not agree more…I’d even argue that round 2 may still be too early in most cases.

late 2nd round is good value for a running back. Early second nope.

 

[rambo2]

And it took Gardner Minshew playing QB for the Cowboys to eek out a win @ home.

Regardless, the team's primary ball carrier was drafted 53rd. Given that they're playing this weekend, I don't think they could, or should, give a crap that Dallas beat them in regular season game.

It took Cooper Rush on the road for the Eagles to eek out a win at home as well.

 

[SlammedZero]

Gurley helped lead Rams to a super bowl. Edwards-Helaire also.

I disagree. It depends on the team and the RB. How many of those RBs went to a super bowl contender?

I think you guys have all leaped into the "RBs are worthless" idea that you're now reaching to prove it.

I don't think that RBs are worthless, by any means, but I get the argument for not drafting them super high. In fact, one of my first priorities in Dallas is locking up Pollard, somehow. I do think he is a key ingredient in having a successful offense.

Did Gurley win one? I meant Super Bowl winners, but easily could have overlooked one in the list that won a ring.

 

[SlammedZero]

They compare Robinson to Barry Sanders. If you put a Barry Sanders type talent on a good team, they very well could go over the top.

I'm just not familiar with Texas football. I've been a bit 'meh' on college football last season or two. I do hear the guy is simply an incredible player though.

 

[Sarge]

Drafting a running back, in this day and age is the first round is beyond stupid.

 

[Bobhaze]

And really, if you do burn a 1st rounder, it absolutely should be late.
Where you take them is huge.

Draft value wise, a top 5 1st costs about about 3 times as much as a late 1st round…..in other worder, you could get 3 late firsts

And look at the teams that have drafted a RB in the top 5 the last decade…none of them have even made a conference championship:

• 2012- Trent Richardson- Browns, Round 1, pick 3. Zero playoff wins
• 2016- Ezekiel Elliott- Cowboys, Round 1, pick 4. Two playoff wins in 7 seasons
• 2017-Leonard Fournette- Jaguars, Round 1, pick 4. Zero playoff wins with jags; did win SB with Bucs in 2021.
• 2018- Saquon Barkley- giants, round 1, pick 3. Zero playoff wins In 5 seasons

Taking a RB in the top 5 is not a good investment.