First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[noshame]

If you don't draft a QB you'll never hit on one.
We should be drafting a QB every other year in the first 5 rounds.

 

[Blitzen]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

I wonder how many of these QB’s had anything resembling the surrounding cast that the current starting Dallas QB walked into or Brock Purdy walked into. At least 50% of the teams had the number one rushing offense and number one offensive line to get the career started right?

The teams that drafted these players were all really good teams drafting at the top of the first round with stable front offices that would be given plenty of time to develop a new QB and find them excellent supporting casts right? Ownership would not be creating a never ending cycle of new front office and coaching personnel that would lead to mass dysfunction and wreck player development right?

All these QB busts had ideal supporting casts and coaching and front office management, right? They just were terrible at the position and not asked to do too much on an otherwise fantastic squad. LOL-more grasping at straws!!!

BrYce YouNG iS JusT a BuST-DAk coULd dO MUch BeTtEr iN CaROliNa!

 

[FanofJerry]

Seems like a lot of posters on here wanting Dallas to get off Dak because of costs(or no Super Bowl) are the same ones wanting Dallas to blow a bunch of FRP's looking for a Michael Jordan at QB. Or even use other draft round assets to move up to get one of the highly touted QB's.

Seems like wanting to cut costs in one area to over spend in another to me. Overspend draft assets on a position that very few can meet fan standards/expectations.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Likely falls to 24, likely BPA. Taking a QB may be far more important than any other position with the current uncertainty. It gives the front office leverage, and if Dak fails this season, they have a second year blue chipper at the helm, competing with Lance.

Think about when Aikman retired. They were caught with their pants down and were forced to reach in the second for Carter. Right now they at least have Lance to try out if negotiations go bad, but his rookie deal is almost up. You bring in Penix, if he wins the gig, you have 4 years of cheap QB play. It allows you to re-sign Parsons. It gives Lamb an accurate passer, which lessens the wear and tear on his body, as well as opens up the route tree, creating more opportunity to become the best in the league.

Something to consider from Dak's standpoint. If he comes in and performs anywhere close to Dak's level...Longshot, but possible with this player...it would make more sense to go with the young guy. Dak could get Romo'd. How does that affect free agency negotiations the following year? Pretty good incentive to waive that no trade clause, no?

I like Penix. He's got potential. My issue is if the Cowboys use their 1st or 2nd round pick to draft Penix, it clearly proves Jerry wanted a costly 4th round pick to trade for Trey Lance last year. Jerry throws so many costly picks away, plus gets rid of talent which goes and performs better elsewhere

 

[plymkr]

I like Penix. He's got potential. My issue is if the Cowboys use their 1st or 2nd round pick to draft Penix, it clearly proves Jerry wanted a costly 4th round pick to trade for Trey Lance last year. Jerry throws so many costly picks away, plus gets rid of talent which goes and performs better elsewhere

I think Jerry trading for Lance will stop us from drafting a QB this year. I think in Jerry’s mind Trey is the developmental QB so I don’t see us drafting a guy this year because in Jerry’s mind we did “draft” Trey this season with our #4 pick. What sucks is instead of 4 years to develop him we got 2. Last year and this year, unless he signs for backup money. But I like the idea of spending a 4th on a developmental QB.

I see a big part of this season is to see what they have in Trey in case Dak isn’t on the team in 2025. If Trey flops or doesn’t develop then I see us taking a QB in 2025 to either replace Dak, if he’s gone, or develop another young QB.

I personally like the idea of drafting a QB every other year to develop as opposed to going 4-6 years without drafting a guy. This is the NE model and GB model NE drafted Jimmy G with Brady playing at a high level and GB drafted Lkbe with Rodgers playing at a high level. I think that is a sound practice.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Could you please provide the details of this "analytics"?

If one examines the Super-Bowl winning QB's in recent history, almost all were very highly drafted, with the exception of Tom Brady.
I've posted the detailed analysis of this on the forum already.

How many of those 'highly drafted' QB's actually won with the team that drafted them? Add to that Mahomes, who was drafted by the Chiefs trading up after a 12-4 play-off season and it seems more relevant the quality of the team that drafts the QB, as it is the abilities of said QB.
Sort the trenches out and give the QB a chance.....a QB is more likely to perform when he's got talent around him. How would Dak had performed if he didnt have the that 2016 Offense around him?

 

[MyFairLady]

What are the odds of your over paid 4th round QB getting dog walked in the first round of the playoffs every year?

 

[Captain-Crash]

most first-round QB's go to bad teams, that's how they get them. smh.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

who are the home runs? Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Luck, Stafford, the rest have up and down years. good, but not home runs.

Lawrence, Herbert, Goff, Tua are solid. Love is solid based on one year. Lamar Jackson to me is solid. great regular seasons, 2-4 in the playoffs. just one loss less than Dak.

 

[America's Cowboy]

I like Penix. He's got potential. My issue is if the Cowboys use their 1st or 2nd round pick to draft Penix, it clearly proves Jerry wanted a costly 4th round pick to trade for Trey Lance last year. Jerry throws so many costly picks away, plus gets rid of talent which goes and performs better elsewhere

Ugh!!! I typed "wasted" instead of "wanted" but this stupid spellchecker keeps changing my words!

 

[Blitzen]

most first-round QB's go to bad teams, that's how they get them. smh.

You are being too kind. Most highly drafted QBs go to dog **** terrible squads run by newly appointed front offices and coaching staffs that are given 2-3 years max to turn vinegar into wine. Then the process begins again with every player drafted in their tenure thrown in the waste bin. People here think it’s because they cannot find the correct QB because that is what the media tells them. It’s because the owners run a dog **** franchise and push the reset button way too often and too soon.

 

[Captain-Crash]

You are being too kind. Most highly drafted QBs go to dog **** terrible squads run by newly appointed front offices and coaching staffs that are given 2-3 years max to turn vinegar into wine. Then the process begins again with every player drafted in their tenure thrown in the waste bin. People here think it’s because they cannot find the correct QB because that is what the media tells them. It’s because the owners run a dog **** franchise and push the reset button way too often and too soon.

 

[jterrell]

Backs them up in what way? What is the goal of your franchise, to get a pro bowl QB or a successful playoff QB?

Conference Championship game starting QBs based on round drafted since Dak Has been drafted:

2023
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 7th

2022
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 2nd vs 7th

2021
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2020
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 6th

2019
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2018
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st/2nd**

2017
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st/3rd* vs Undrafted

2016
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st


The 6ths are of course all Tom Brady. We can go back further and see Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Donovan Mcnabb each started a slew of CCG’s dating back to 2000. Probability dictates that while it is technically possible to make a conference championship game with a QB taken outside of the first round, it is overwhelmingly more likely get there with a 1st round pick.

The draft isn’t about guarantees, the draft is about probability. Nothing is assured, but you make the best choices possible based on the data of probability. Dallas is fortunate that Dak is as good as he is from the fourth round, but he has spent enough time to prove he is not Tom Brady, and the team is unable to build a team around him in the manner of Brock Purdy.

Arguments in semantics:

(*: 2017 NFCCG was started by third round pick Nick Foles, who is responsible for winning that game and moving on, but the act of participating in that game and getting it at home was by 1st round pick Carson Wentz, who solidified home field advantage and a first round by with his 11-2 record before getting injured. So while yes Foles started the game, the team got to the game due more to the 1st round pick.)

(**: 2018 NFCCG was started by 2nd round pick Drew Brees. Drew, however, was drafted 32nd overall in a season where there were only 31 teams. For intents of this exercise, he would be considered a 1st round pick by today’s draft standards, as is 2023 AFCCG participant Lamar Jackson, who was chosen with the same pick.)

The semantics argument show you aren't serious here.
Logic in the dirt.
Brees was taken 32nd by a team that had already chose a non QB in round 1.
He was chosen at 32 because it was the 2nd round.
Wentz is god awful and a bust. He had a good stretch where a very complete Eagles team made the run. He obviously wasn't required for it as Foles finished it off beating Brady.R3 jiourneyman beats Brady??
Was nuts to me too but goes to show it is about complete football teams.

As to history Brett Favre was an R2 QB.

4 of those numbers are Brady, 5 of those are Mahomes.
This just shows you can't find a guy to get there from anywhere without a mini miracle.
Purdy and Hurts have each mad eit twice. Neither are top 5 QBs IMHO. both had/have top 5 teams around them.


If you do not have 1st overall you have a remote chance of landing a regular playoff QB, much less a CCG performer.

If you draft Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert, it still doesn't matter if you do not build a very good team around them.
Trevor is a good QB but he has a 20-30 record and a 72 playoff QB Rating.
Justin is a good QB (albeit overrated) but he has a 30-32 record is 0-1 in the playoffs and a 84 QB Rating.
Both of those numbers are WORSE than Dak.

If you move on form Dak you do so because he got too expensive. You do not do so to get better at QB.
Because if as a GM you even pretend to believe that you are complete buffoon.
So you are going to have to a better team with a lesser, cheaper QB and try to win that way.

 

[morasp]

Backs them up in what way? What is the goal of your franchise, to get a pro bowl QB or a successful playoff QB?

Conference Championship game starting QBs based on round drafted since Dak Has been drafted:

2023
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 7th

2022
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 2nd vs 7th

2021
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2020
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 6th

2019
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2018
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st/2nd**

2017
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st/3rd* vs Undrafted

2016
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st


The 6ths are of course all Tom Brady. We can go back further and see Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Donovan Mcnabb each started a slew of CCG’s dating back to 2000. Probability dictates that while it is technically possible to make a conference championship game with a QB taken outside of the first round, it is overwhelmingly more likely get there with a 1st round pick.

The draft isn’t about guarantees, the draft is about probability. Nothing is assured, but you make the best choices possible based on the data of probability. Dallas is fortunate that Dak is as good as he is from the fourth round, but he has spent enough time to prove he is not Tom Brady, and the team is unable to build a team around him in the manner of Brock Purdy.

Arguments in semantics:

(*: 2017 NFCCG was started by third round pick Nick Foles, who is responsible for winning that game and moving on, but the act of participating in that game and getting it at home was by 1st round pick Carson Wentz, who solidified home field advantage and a first round by with his 11-2 record before getting injured. So while yes Foles started the game, the team got to the game due more to the 1st round pick.)

(**: 2018 NFCCG was started by 2nd round pick Drew Brees. Drew, however, was drafted 32nd overall in a season where there were only 31 teams. For intents of this exercise, he would be considered a 1st round pick by today’s draft standards, as is 2023 AFCCG participant Lamar Jackson, who was chosen with the same pick.)

Nice research!

 

[Blitzen]

Seems like a lot of posters on here wanting Dallas to get off Dak because of costs(or no Super Bowl) are the same ones wanting Dallas to blow a bunch of FRP's looking for a Michael Jordan at QB. Or even use other draft round assets to move up to get one of the highly touted QB's.

Seems like wanting to cut costs in one area to over spend in another to me. Overspend draft assets on a position that very few can meet fan standards/expectations.

It seems to me there are far too many fans that do not want the team to pursue even CCG appearances if it risks the potential of winning several games in the regular season.

Why show support to a team that will not make every attempt to advance to a SB? It’s like some fans’ incomes are directly tied to the franchise’s relevance.

I would rather the team do more pulling the plug and attempting to trade any older players that have decent trade value. I also am of the mind that during a rebuild, unless you are convinced the QB is extremely high end and won’t cost too much draft capital that you draft other positions of need that can use clear upgrades. Other teams must try to find that stud QB that can immediately improve a team’s offense dramatically because their jobs are at stake (this is the biggest reason for overdrafting and overspending on the QB position).

 

[Blitzen]

The semantics argument show you aren't serious here.
Logic in the dirt.
Brees was taken 32nd by a team that had already chose a non QB in round 1.
He was chosen at 32 because it was the 2nd round.
Wentz is god awful and a bust. He had a good stretch where a very complete Eagles team made the run. He obviously wasn't required for it as Foles finished it off beating Brady.R3 jiourneyman beats Brady??
Was nuts to me too but goes to show it is about complete football teams.

As to history Brett Favre was an R2 QB.

4 of those numbers are Brady, 5 of those are Mahomes.
This just shows you can't find a guy to get there from anywhere without a mini miracle.
Purdy and Hurts have each mad eit twice. Neither are top 5 QBs IMHO. both had/have top 5 teams around them.


If you do not have 1st overall you have a remote chance of landing a regular playoff QB, much less a CCG performer.

If you draft Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert, it still doesn't matter if you do not build a very good team around them.
Trevor is a good QB but he has a 20-30 record and a 72 playoff QB Rating.
Justin is a good QB (albeit overrated) but he has a 30-32 record is 0-1 in the playoffs and a 84 QB Rating.
Both of those numbers are WORSE than Dak.

If you move on form Dak you do so because he got too expensive. You do not do so to get better at QB.
Because if as a GM you even pretend to believe that you are complete buffoon.
So you are going to have to a better team with a lesser, cheaper QB and try to win that way.

I think lots of QBs never get the type of teams that Dak, Purdy, Lamar, Hurts, Mahomes have been given at least 1-2 times in their careers (and even in their down years the teams were never bottom of the barrel). Burrow had to play right away and they have never given him an elite or even good offensive line. Same for Trevor. Justin is part of the most rollercoaster franchise in the game-though Harbaugh may turn the team into a consistent winner.

Moving on from Dak can just mean that the long term goal of the franchise is to win the next SB. They may believe that continuing with Dak (and his contract) gives the team no chance at that goal-which then makes the decision an easy one.

 

[CowboyoWales]

You are being too kind. Most highly drafted QBs go to dog **** terrible squads run by newly appointed front offices and coaching staffs that are given 2-3 years max to turn vinegar into wine. Then the process begins again with every player drafted in their tenure thrown in the waste bin. People here think it’s because they cannot find the correct QB because that is what the media tells them. It’s because the owners run a dog **** franchise and push the reset button way too often and too soon.

Yep, Rookie QB's need help: help to settle, help in protection and weapons. Our O-Line in 2016 was immense, oh and we had the rushing champ. We build the O-Line first.

 

[superonyx]

Only if you are dumb enough to stay with the experiment and don't actually cut your losses.

It will take 3-4 years to figure out if the guy is worth it in many cases. He may not come in and crap the bed right away. Most likely he shows just enough to string you along. Superbowl winning franchise QB's are so extremely rare. Everyone looks at Mahomes and Brady (not a 1st rd guy) and thinks that is what hitting on a QB looks like. The reality is hitting on a 1st round QB looks like Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. Guys who are franchise QB's but haven't won anything more than Dak.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

You miss a hundred percent of the shots you don't take. That doesn't mean you will hit a hundred percent of the shots you do take. If anything this mindset of "well we might fail" is what has held this team back. The fear of failure which is tied to the hip with the fear of letting go. It's what kept Zeke around for another ill advised contract and it is what has kept Dak Prescott a Cowboy even though nothing in his play suggested that he was worth an extension after his rookie deal.

 

[Jarv]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

So are you you trying to prove that no teams should mathematically ever pick a QB in the first round?