First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[rnr_honeybadger]

So are you you trying to prove that no teams should mathematically ever pick a QB in the first round?

I'm sure Houston is regretting drafting CJ Stroud.

 

[MyFairLady]

QBs are the most valuable players in all of professional sports. Taking one early and often seems like a bit of a no brainer IMHO. Like playing checkers and never taking the middle square first. But we must remember Jerry is smarter than us. Wouldn't want to end up with another Troy Aikman on our hands now would we.

 

[75boyz]

You miss a hundred percent of the shots you don't take. That doesn't mean you will hit a hundred percent of the shots you do take. If anything this mindset of "well we might fail" is what has held this team back. The fear of failure which is tied to the hip with the fear of letting go. It's what kept Zeke around for another ill advised contract and it is what has kept Dak Prescott a Cowboy even though nothing in his play suggested that he was worth an extension after his rookie deal.

EXACTLY.

 

[Sandyf]

Good article although I have problems on their mixed results guy. Fields, Wentz, Mayfield, Jones, and Sanchez are clearly misses. Sure they had a season or two but truly are no more than backups/journeymen. That puts the miss at around 65 percent for 1st round guys. Translate that to this draft of the top six guys and it says odds are on two of them will be difference makers. Not great odds if you are drafting high.

 

[1942willys]

I frankly think the whole ranking system is questionable. I see judgements on all sides I would disagree with.
Calling Cam Newton a Home Run is BS, for example

 

[1942willys]

Burrows, Allen, are the only ones outside of Mahones that I would put in the Home Run Category. Jackson honestly I would just say is solid. Its a fine line I admit. Allen in a way I might personally be over rating because of that incredible game with Mahomes where they went toe to toe and basically last guy up won. BUT that was just one game. Burrows has been injured too much.
Rodgers is really the only other guy than Mahones that is absolutely a Home Run to be honest. and is he even really coming back even if he says so?
Tua and the others are frankly in the solid areas and no more. Stafford, Foles, Flacco, the same.
To me a Home Run is a guy who is heading towards the HOF or looks that way. Really not that many right now outside of Mahones and Rodgers of which that really can be said

 

[kskboys]

I frankly think the whole ranking system is questionable. I see judgements on all sides I would disagree with.
Calling Cam Newton a Home Run is BS, for example

Yup.

Basically, QB's are constantly overdrafted simply because they are by far the most valuable asset to an NFL team. That makes all the data go straight out the window.

If you don't have a QB, you have nothing.

Cam had one great year and a couple of decent years. When he lost a bit of his ability to run and was forced to put the game on his arm, he failed miserably.

 

[kskboys]

Burrows, Allen, are the only ones outside of Mahones that I would put in the Home Run Category. Jackson honestly I would just say is solid. Its a fine line I admit. Allen in a way I might personally be over rating because of that incredible game with Mahomes where they went toe to toe and basically last guy up won. BUT that was just one game. Burrows has been injured too much.
Rodgers is really the only other guy than Mahones that is absolutely a Home Run to be honest. and is he even really coming back even if he says so?
Tua and the others are frankly in the solid areas and no more. Stafford, Foles, Flacco, the same.
To me a Home Run is a guy who is heading towards the HOF or looks that way. Really not that many right now outside of Mahones and Rodgers of which that really can be said

Agree. At present, Burrows is on the road to be a carbon copy of Paper Plate Pennington. As good as Burrows is, he quite simply needs to quit running. He doesn't have the build to stay on the field taking that pounding. Cincy needs to switch to a short pass O to get the ball out of his hands quicker.

Since Rodgers is ancient, right now it's Mahomes and then everyone else. No one is close at present.

You are so spot on w/ Allen. He got a freaky amount of love from that one game. Yes, he's a good QB, but he's not some juggernaut. And it'll be interesting to see how he does w/ BUFF releasing a ton of talent to get under that mythical salary cap.

 

[perrykemp]

Burrows, Allen, are the only ones outside of Mahones that I would put in the Home Run Category. Jackson honestly I would just say is solid. Its a fine line I admit. Allen in a way I might personally be over rating because of that incredible game with Mahomes where they went toe to toe and basically last guy up won. BUT that was just one game. Burrows has been injured too much.
Rodgers is really the only other guy than Mahones that is absolutely a Home Run to be honest. and is he even really coming back even if he says so?
Tua and the others are frankly in the solid areas and no more. Stafford, Foles, Flacco, the same.
To me a Home Run is a guy who is heading towards the HOF or looks that way. Really not that many right now outside of Mahones and Rodgers of which that really can be said

This century, Rodgers and Mahomes were the only two guys, that after 2, maybe 3 years playing, you could say unequivocally that "this guy is a HoF lock unless he gets hurt".

 

[kskboys]

I think lots of QBs never get the type of teams that Dak, Purdy, Lamar, Hurts, Mahomes have been given at least 1-2 times in their careers (and even in their down years the teams were never bottom of the barrel). Burrow had to play right away and they have never given him an elite or even good offensive line. Same for Trevor. Justin is part of the most rollercoaster franchise in the game-though Harbaugh may turn the team into a consistent winner.

Moving on from Dak can just mean that the long term goal of the franchise is to win the next SB. They may believe that continuing with Dak (and his contract) gives the team no chance at that goal-which then makes the decision an easy one.

Yup. Those 1sts Cincy keeps spending on WR's and DB's needed to go to OL's.

 

[kskboys]

This century, Rodgers and Mahomes were the only two guys, that after 2, maybe 3 years playing, you could say unequivocally that "this guy is a HoF lock unless he gets hurt".

Except maybe Burrows. He's been phenomenal, but the "unless he gets hurt" keeps kicking in.

 

[CowboyFrog]

And if you remove the QB's who were overdrafted, the miss rate is around 30%.

The problem with this is you could say every miss was overdrafted..especially at QB, this league is so hungry for them there will always be "Overdrafts" at the position..I'm for drafting a QB..I'm also very clear on who will be drafting this QB and what that might look like with this FO.....

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

I frankly think the whole ranking system is questionable. I see judgements on all sides I would disagree with.
Calling Cam Newton a Home Run is BS, for example

Hell the salary system is even more crazy. Next guy up? This suggests that all the QB's are exactly the same and can deliver the same performance.

 

[FanofJerry]

Small sample size, gotta see what the NFL Defensive Co-ordinators draw up to stop him over the next year or so...

But Stroud looks like he could be a rare QB. Watched a good portion of the last few games of the year after hearing all the hype...kid seems to have precision in his arm and not afraid of big moments. Time will tell.

I dont think Allen or Burrows have done what I have seen Stroud do...and that was just the end of this season. Burrow looked good that first year. Allen is a big boy who can run with a cannon...and had that epic playoff game with Mahommes where he looked Godly. I just dont remember them throwing as perfect a football as I have seen Stroud through. Again...I only jumped on the Stroud train late this past year but he just absolutely jumped off the screen with his passes.

 

[Reid1boys]

The reality is you need a HR. Anything less than a HR is a bust.

Carson Wentz is a "Mixed results?" Dak and Cousins would have been solid on their chart. Who cares about solid around here?
Ive been arguing this point for a decade around here. 75% of the time the SB is won by a HOF type qb or a player that had an mvp type season.

Cam Newton was nevere a great qb, but he was the MVP of the league the year that Carolina went to the SB.

No HOF type qb and it is damn hard and takes a lot of luck in the playoffs to make a SB.

 

[FanofJerry]

How do you evaluate your FO/GM if you are just drafting players to field a team but plan on selling the players off by their next contract if the team isnt good or you dont have your Michael Jordan at QB yet?

Who wants to play for that team? What fans are going to get involved with a team if the FO's goal is to be crappy until we get lucky and find a Mahommes?

It seems like some would rather be crappy year in and year out until you have your Mahommes/Michael Jordan. I just see a situation like Eli Manning...players refusing to go to a team that operates like that....and agents steering their clients away from teams that operate like that.

Just turning a roster and not really trying to compete until you have a Michael Jordan? I dont know. Nuts that we have a really talented group of young guys here and there is a serious notion to sell them all and go look for Jordan if Dak wont accept being low balled.

This very notion would ruin the NFL if every team operated like that. "Michael Jordan or nothing" and "Super Bowl or nothing" unreasonableness is out of hand on this board. Its borderline cruel level. This board would make a fish miserable and kill itself because its being tortured because it cant walk on land. Its trashy. Hate for production is trashy. Hate to speed up production is trashy. hate science period is trashy. Blame and shame.

 

[Havic]

Having a mahomes comparison qb in the draft is worth the risk every time

 

[Denim Chicken]

But I want Dak gone!

Waaaah!!!

By all accounts Dak is a #3 - mixed result - maybe you could argue low #2.

Do you pay $60 for a mixed result?

 

[VaqueroTD]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Well, if you think about it, most of the Super Bowls the last 20 years have been won by the same five or six quarterbacks so I guess it would make sense that you only get a homerun 15% of the time.

I don’t think we will ever have a GM good enough to build a team around an A-OK quarterback. And that’s fine, there’s a lot of teams that can say the same thing. But we seem like a team that needs one of these 15% franchise Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

 

[thunderpimp91]

We get distracted by the dak debate but the larger issue is these hit/miss numbers are not exclusive to the quarterback position. It may be a little bit longer odds given that they tend to get overdrafted more however the first round the of the draft is pretty 50/50.

This is the problem with the cowboys draft only approach to the offseason. Dak, Lance, or a rookies qb I’m not sure it really matters much for 2024. Jerry/Stephen simply have not put this team in a position to succeed this year.