Big Board for Pick 12

[cnuball21]

How they got the player is totally irrelevant. The great player making a huge difference is what is important. And while the draft can be a crap shoot, you pay your scouts to make the decisions about who the great players are and then you make decisions on acquiring those players to the best of your ability. The point is picking at 12 is only smart if it is the best choice at that particular time. Trading up, trading down, whatever. You make the best decision and need to be aggressive and not passive.

Trade-ups: Look at just the Eagles over the past 3 years, who have built one of the better defenses in the league. Three years ago they traded up for Jalen Carter and two years ago they traded up for DeJean. Both have made an All Pro team and were huge for improving their team and both will likely reap benefits for a decade. It's all about what is best to make your team better. Whether that is from the 32nd defense to the 20th or the 20th to the 10th is irrelevant. You just do what you can to get better. With a top 20 defense the Cowboys were a playoff team for sure and with a top 15 defense they are a contender if they keep the offense together. They don't need to be a top 5 defense to be a contender.

1. How they got the player is the whole point if the discussion. Trading up is usually reserved for QBs or a high value impact player for a team that is close. We are not close.

2. The Eagles are highly active in FA and were close when they made those moves. I would guess they also had a lot more picks then us those years.

 

[Jarntt]

1. How they got the player is the whole point if the discussion. Trading up is usually reserved for QBs or a high value impact player for a team that is close. We are not close.

2. The Eagles are highly active in FA and were close when they made those moves. I would guess they also had a lot more picks then us those years.

That's just not accurate, but I think we have both said all we can say on the topic.

 

[visionary]

No, you are not going on history at all. You are acting as if all trades are alike. I'm talking about moving up one or two spots for a particular player this year. It's irrelevant whether it's 12 to 10 or 14 to 12 other than the extra capital it requires which is nowhere near as much as moving up from say pick 30 to pick 15. Pretending pick #10 is some magical spot that you don't move up past is a bad generalization. And pretending prior drafts and those players are more than just a correlation is wrong. All that matters is again, the player you are targeting, the cost to move up and camparing that to what is expected if you stay put or move back. If there is a player you love and see as a potential superstar you are moronic to not go get him. The same holds true in the reverse if you have a couple of guys you like about the same. It would be moronic to move up in that were the situation.

Think of it in these 2 ways:

1. How many safeties picked in the top 10 has had an over arching impact on that defense. Since the answer will be 1 (Ronnie Lott), ask yourself that you are basically saying that Downs is better than any safety in NFL history except Lott. How likely is that?

2. Think of the best safeties in NFL history and see where they were picked? Not in the top 10. So you can find top safeties outside the top 10

3. Now factor in having to trade another premium pick to get him

4. And while youre at it, ask yourself why teams tend not to pick safeties in the top 10? Maybe because other positions are ‘premium’ for a reason

Slam dunk bad idea

 

[TNCowboy]

The "Bain has short arms" bit comes back now that the college playoffs are over. Wasn't an easy argument to make while he was making one impact play after another in the playoffs. No DE in recent memory has had a run like Bain just had through the last 6 weeks or so.

Truth is, there are 3 edges at the top of most boards, and odds are all 3 will be gone by the time we pick. Broadas thinks Styles will go early, too, and if he's right, we're probably going to be picking between CBs and OTs. There's always the chance Ty Simpson or some such QB will jump up the boards and go early, but we probably need that and someone to do something like draft a guard or a DT or fall in love with the OTs before we pick if we hope to get one of those top edges or Downs.

Or it could be, that our new DC wants them to go CB regardless, given his background.

 

[cnuball21]

The "Bain has short arms" bit comes back now that the college playoffs are over. Wasn't an easy argument to make while he was making one impact play after another in the playoffs. No DE in recent memory has had a run like Bain just had through the last 6 weeks or so.

Truth is, there are 3 edges at the top of most boards, and odds are all 3 will be gone by the time we pick. Broadas thinks Styles will go early, too, and if he's right, we're probably going to be picking between CBs and OTs. There's always the chance Ty Simpson or some such QB will jump up the boards and go early, but we probably need that and someone to do something like draft a guard or a DT or fall in love with the OTs before we pick if we hope to get one of those top edges or Downs.

Or it could be, that our new DC wants them to go CB regardless, given his background.

Bain is a heck of a college player...and I like him as an option at 20.

But I am still waiting for anyone to show me a stud NFL Edge with sub 31 inch arms.

 

[Tabascocat]

Bain is a heck of a college player...and I like him as an option at 20.

But I am still waiting for anyone to show me a stud NFL Edge with sub 31 inch arms.

Dwight Freeney

I did look him up and his arms were 32” I believe but scouts complained about his arm length.

 

[cnuball21]

Dwight Freeney

I did look him up and his arms were 32” I believe but scouts complained about his arm length.

So that is not someone that meets the same criteria. 32 inches is short but serviceable...30 is other worldly outlier.

 

[rambo2]

Bain is a heck of a college player...and I like him as an option at 20.

But I am still waiting for anyone to show me a stud NFL Edge with sub 31 inch arms.

What did you think of Aaron Donald coming out of college? A 280 pound defensive tackle taken at 13.

 

[Tabascocat]

So that is not someone that meets the same criteria. 32 inches is short but serviceable...30 is other worldly outlier.

Bain is a 1/4” below the threshold minimum. I think he will do just fine. He might even play 3-tech. I wouldn’t pass on him if he was there at 12 but he won’t be.

 

[rambo2]

Bain is a 1/4” below the threshold minimum. I think he will do just fine. He might even play 3-tech. I wouldn’t pass on him if he was there at 12 but he won’t be.

He shouldn't be there at 12, but if he was I would take him. He looks to be a very good player. His strength is incredible. He actually throws people around like they are children. When he gets to a ball carrier, they go down.

 

[cnuball21]

What did you think of Aaron Donald coming out of college? A 280 pound defensive tackle taken at 13.

Go look up his production in college.

 

[cnuball21]

Bain is a 1/4” below the threshold minimum. I think he will do just fine. He might even play 3-tech. I wouldn’t pass on him if he was there at 12 but he won’t be.

I think my threshold is much different yours.

 

[beware_d-ware]

The "Bain has short arms" bit comes back now that the college playoffs are over. Wasn't an easy argument to make while he was making one impact play after another in the playoffs. No DE in recent memory has had a run like Bain just had through the last 6 weeks or so.

Truth is, there are 3 edges at the top of most boards, and odds are all 3 will be gone by the time we pick. Broadas thinks Styles will go early, too, and if he's right, we're probably going to be picking between CBs and OTs. There's always the chance Ty Simpson or some such QB will jump up the boards and go early, but we probably need that and someone to do something like draft a guard or a DT or fall in love with the OTs before we pick if we hope to get one of those top edges or Downs.

Or it could be, that our new DC wants them to go CB regardless, given his background.

Bain's production in his last 4 weeks (5 sacks, 4.5 TFLs) was about the same as his previous 12 weeks. Kudos to him for turning it against the best OLs under the brightest lights, but even counting that playoff run, his total production wasn't great for a 1st round DE. His regular season was really quiet.

You guys are going to lose your minds when I say this, but do you know who this reminds me of? Taco Charlton.

Taco put up 2 and 1/2 seasons of OK production at Michigan, and had a big standout sub-threshold measurable (4.92 40 as an edge rusher). But in his final four college games he just went nuts, putting up a Bain-esque 5.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs. His biggest game was on national TV against Ohio State, and his draft stock exploded after that.

Was that huge month a sign of things to come for Taco, or was it a career outlier hot streak?

 

[cnuball21]

Bain's production in his last 4 weeks (5 sacks, 4.5 TFLs) was about the same as his previous 12 weeks. Kudos to him for turning it against the best OLs under the brightest lights, but even counting that playoff run, his total production wasn't great for a 1st round DE. His regular season was really quiet.

You guys are going to lose your minds when I say this, but do you know who this reminds me of? Taco Charlton.

Taco put up 2 and 1/2 seasons of OK production at Michigan, and had a big standout sub-threshold measurable (4.92 40 as an edge rusher). But in his final four college games he just went nuts, putting up a Bain-esque 5.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs. His biggest game was on national TV against Ohio State, and his draft stock exploded after that.

Was that huge month a sign of things to come for Taco, or was it a career outlier hot streak?

Man we normally agree but Taco was 6'5 with 34+ inch arms. On the production side you are right.

I think Melvin Ingram is the closest comp I can find but his arms were even a little longer.

 

[Jarntt]

Think of it in these 2 ways:

1. How many safeties picked in the top 10 has had an over arching impact on that defense. Since the answer will be 1 (Ronnie Lott), ask yourself that you are basically saying that Downs is better than any safety in NFL history except Lott. How likely is that?

2. Think of the best safeties in NFL history and see where they were picked? Not in the top 10. So you can find top safeties outside the top 10

3. Now factor in having to trade another premium pick to get him

4. And while youre at it, ask yourself why teams tend not to pick safeties in the top 10? Maybe because other positions are ‘premium’ for a reason

Slam dunk bad idea

That's a completely inaccurate way to look at it. This has nothing to do with other safeties. I'm saying nothing other than Downs IMO is better than what we will get 2 or 3 picks later plus a mid round pick next year and maybe another pick. The team may or may not agree but if they do they should try to move up. Why you are arguing it in the way you are makes no sense and is just being dramatic IMO

 

[cnuball21]

That's a completely inaccurate way to look at it. This has nothing to do with other safeties. I'm saying nothing other than Downs IMO is better than what we will get 2 or 3 picks later plus a mid round pick next year and maybe another pick. The team may or may not agree but if they do they should try to move up. Why you are arguing it in the way you are makes no sense and is just being dramatic IMO

Buddy... 2 things can be true

1. Yes - Downs is a stud and one of the best players in the draft

2. We are not in a position to trade up and give up draft picks when we are nowhere near a championship caliber team.

When you are not close you need all the draft picks you can have in the draft.

We are picking at 12 so there will be a very good defensive player available. I hope
Downs is there, but if not, maybe Bailey / McCoy / Reese will be there.

 

[visionary]

That's a completely inaccurate way to look at it. This has nothing to do with other safeties. I'm saying nothing other than Downs IMO is better than what we will get 2 or 3 picks later plus a mid round pick next year and maybe another pick. The team may or may not agree but if they do they should try to move up. Why you are arguing it in the way you are makes no sense and is just being dramatic IMO

If ‘it makes no sense’ to you then it is probably very sensible
I know that you are triggered by being challenged on a stupid post
I get it

 

[starfan1]

Bain is a heck of a college player...and I like him as an option at 20.

But I am still waiting for anyone to show me a stud NFL Edge with sub 31 inch arms.

Bain won’t make it out top 10 maybe not even top 5

 

[cnuball21]

Bain won’t make it out top 10 maybe not even top 5

I certainly hope so

 

[rambo2]

Bain won’t make it out top 10 maybe not even top 5

Downs and Bain are my top 2 targets for pick 12.