Two stats that say it all

[JW82]

So far in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure, his overall record in 22 games as HC is 9-12-1. Obviously a lot more football to go this season and the NFC Least is shaping up to be a race for mediocrity, and we are just a game back. Plenty of time to get up off the mat.

There are two stats I ran across however that I think sums up what this team is most challenged with:
STAT ONE (Involving scoring)

• When Cowboys score less than 30 points, Schotty’s record is 1-10.
• When the Cowboys score 30 or more, Schotty’s record is 8-2-1.
• The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

STAT TWO (offensive possessions)

• Through 5 games, the Cowboys have the least number of offensive possessions with 45, or 9 possessions per game. League avg is 10.4 per game. Sea leads the league with 62 possessions or 12.4 possessions per game.
• When you have to score 30 or more to win, and you don’t get that many possessions in a game, your offense is in a place where it has to score almost every time it has the ball.

Through 22 games under Schotty, we have less than a 10% chance of winning if we score less than 30. Ouch.

The hope for improvement: GETTING TURNOVERS AND SHORT POSSESSIONS FROM OPPONENTS. Turnovers and extra stops from your defense give your offense extra possessions along with some short fields.

Without more TOs from our defense giving our offense more possessions, our offense will have to continue to score 30 or more each week to win.

Hopefully Mike Pettine can help Chris Parker dial up some stops and TOs.

The other part of that stat is they only score 30 when playing awful teams.

 

[Kevinicus]

Regarding the math in games we’ve won…ok. There were certainly games where 28 or 25 would have won.

But that still doesn’t change the stat that shows in the Schotty era so far, we are 1-10 in games we don’t score 30 or more.

But that doesn't mean they needed to score 30 in those games.

There could be (for arguments sake) a game where the Cowboys lose 14-13. Now, that shows up in the 1-10 stat, and people see it and think they needed to score 30. When in reality, the defense was great (not true of this team), and the offense was the bigger issue. That's insight you don't get looking at one side of the ball.

 

[EGTuna]

It gets worse;
Through the Texans game, if the Cowboys had a failed first down (less than 3 yards), they passed on 2nd down 24/30 times. Bowles knew this and blitzed the pants off of Dallas on 2nd down and it worked as Dallas was in 3rd long all night.

 

[Cowboys5217]

It gets worse;
Through the Texans game, if the Cowboys had a failed first down (less than 3 yards), they passed on 2nd down 24/30 times. Bowles knew this and blitzed the pants off of Dallas on 2nd down and it worked as Dallas was in 3rd long all night.

An 0-4 team read us like a book.

 

[EGTuna]

An 0-4 team read us like a book.

Scottie and Parker are getting thoroughly out coached by their peers. And it’s not like CP is going up against Andy Reid and McVay. Zac Robinson and Declan Doyle undressed him. Schotty has been a joke since day1, and it routinely out coached by mediocrity.

 

[Bobhaze]

But that doesn't mean they needed to score 30 in those games.

There could be (for arguments sake) a game where the Cowboys lose 14-13. Now, that shows up in the 1-10 stat, and people see it and think they needed to score 30. When in reality, the defense was great (not true of this team), and the offense was the bigger issue. That's insight you don't get looking at one side of the ball.

Kevin here are the scores needed to win in the Cowboys 12 losses under Brian Schottenheimer:

2025

• Eagles 24-Cowboys 20 (needed 25)
• Bears 31- Cowboys 14 (needed 32)
• Panthers 30- Cowboys 27 (needed 31)
• Broncos 44- Cowboys 22 (needed 45)
• Cards 27- Cowboys 17 (needed 28)
• Lions 44- Cowboys 30 (needed 45)
• Vikings 34-Cowboys 26 (needed 35)
• Chargers 34- Cowboys 17 (needed 35)
• Giants 34 - Cowboys 17 (needed 35)

2026

• Giants 28- Cowboys 20 (needed 29)
• Ravens 34- Cowboys 31 (needed 35)
• Bucs 24- Cowboys 16 (needed 25)

In the 12 losses we’ve suffered under Schotty, two of them we needed to score 45 to win, six of them we needed to score over 30 and 4 of them over 25 points to win. ALL of those losses required above league average scoring to win those games.

That doesn’t count the tie we had last year that required us to score 40 to avoid a loss.

And ok…the 9 wins we’ve had under Schotty didn’t always require 30 or more. That’s a very small consolation.

I’m just trying to paint an accurate picture of what our Dallas Cowboys are right now.

 

[Whiskeyta]

Out of curiosity I looked at our 3rd down efficiency rates. Per espn our season third down efficiency rates are 49.15 offensive and 52.63 defensively. In 3 out of 5 games they are pretty ugly defensively. I think the league average is around 39%.

Vs TB 40.0 offensive and 53.8 defensive

Vs Hou 35.7 offensive and 30.0 defensive

Vs Was 57.1 offensive and 63.6 defensive

Vs Bal 38.4 offensive and 33.3 defensive

Vs NY 72.7 offensive and 81.8 defensive

 

[Diehardblues]

So far in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure, his overall record in 22 games as HC is 9-12-1. Obviously a lot more football to go this season and the NFC Least is shaping up to be a race for mediocrity, and we are just a game back. Plenty of time to get up off the mat.

There are two stats I ran across however that I think sums up what this team is most challenged with:
STAT ONE (Involving scoring)

• When Cowboys score less than 30 points, Schotty’s record is 1-10.
• When the Cowboys score 30 or more, Schotty’s record is 8-2-1.
• The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

STAT TWO (offensive possessions)

• Through 5 games, the Cowboys have the least number of offensive possessions with 45, or 9 possessions per game. League avg is 10.4 per game. Sea leads the league with 62 possessions or 12.4 possessions per game.
• When you have to score 30 or more to win, and you don’t get that many possessions in a game, your offense is in a place where it has to score almost every time it has the ball.

Through 22 games under Schotty, we have less than a 10% chance of winning if we score less than 30. Ouch.

The hope for improvement: GETTING TURNOVERS AND SHORT POSSESSIONS FROM OPPONENTS. Turnovers and extra stops from your defense give your offense extra possessions along with some short fields.

Without more TOs from our defense giving our offense more possessions, our offense will have to continue to score 30 or more each week to win.

Hopefully Mike Pettine can help Chris Parker dial up some stops and TOs.

It’s all about having a horrid defense if your possessions are limited and need 30 or more points to win. It places tremendous pressure on offense to score on almost every possession.

And in many of these games we don’t get 9 possessions . Against NY only had 2 in second half . Against TB only had one possession in 1st qtr.

 

[Bobhaze]

The other part of that stat is they only score 30 when playing awful teams.

Fair point. The 2 wins we have so far are against teams with a combined 3-7 record.

Last year our 7 wins included 6 with teams with losing records, and only one team with a winning record (the egirls)

 

[Rockport]

So far in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure, his overall record in 22 games as HC is 9-12-1. Obviously a lot more football to go this season and the NFC Least is shaping up to be a race for mediocrity, and we are just a game back. Plenty of time to get up off the mat.

There are two stats I ran across however that I think sums up what this team is most challenged with:
STAT ONE (Involving scoring)

• When Cowboys score less than 30 points, Schotty’s record is 1-10.
• When the Cowboys score 30 or more, Schotty’s record is 8-2-1.
• The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

STAT TWO (offensive possessions)

• Through 5 games, the Cowboys have the least number of offensive possessions with 45, or 9 possessions per game. League avg is 10.4 per game. Sea leads the league with 62 possessions or 12.4 possessions per game.
• When you have to score 30 or more to win, and you don’t get that many possessions in a game, your offense is in a place where it has to score almost every time it has the ball.

Through 22 games under Schotty, we have less than a 10% chance of winning if we score less than 30. Ouch.

The hope for improvement: GETTING TURNOVERS AND SHORT POSSESSIONS FROM OPPONENTS. Turnovers and extra stops from your defense give your offense extra possessions along with some short fields.

Without more TOs from our defense giving our offense more possessions, our offense will have to continue to score 30 or more each week to win.

Hopefully Mike Pettine can help Chris Parker dial up some stops and TOs.

I’m glad you finally came around to notice that the defense is the problem Bob. It’s been a mystery.

 

[Rockport]

Agreed. Tampa had a clear strategy of dominating TOP, reducing the numberof possessions for the Cowboys.

Dallas held the ball for 20:39 compared to Tampa Bay's 39:21, almost 19 minutes more than the Cowboys. That strategy worked because they had 241 yards rushing.

They did that by blitzing on almost every play. OC was not prepared.

 

[Diehardblues]

Regarding the math in games we’ve won…ok. There were certainly games where 28 or 25 would have won.

But that still doesn’t change the stat that shows in the Schotty era so far, we are 1-10 in games we don’t score 30 or more.

This is all about the defense. Nothing more.

 

[Diehardblues]

Fair point. The 2 wins we have so far are against teams with a combined 3-7 record.

Last year our 7 wins included 6 with teams with losing records, and only one team with a winning record (the egirls)

Yep. When we face better teams with good defenses they slow our offense which lessens our chance to score while their offense scores more on our defense . It’s a double whammy.

 

[Bobhaze]

This is all about the defense. Nothing more.

And we have a front office who all off-season were busting buttons with pride about how well they addressed the defense.

It’s still only about a third of the season gone so it’s possible to turn it around. Just hard to have faith in the people making decisions.

 

[Kevinicus]

Kevin here are the scores needed to win in the Cowboys 12 losses under Brian Schottenheimer:

2025

• Eagles 24-Cowboys 20 (needed 25)
• Bears 31- Cowboys 14 (needed 32)
• Panthers 30- Cowboys 27 (needed 31)
• Broncos 44- Cowboys 22 (needed 45)
• Cards 27- Cowboys 17 (needed 28)
• Lions 44- Cowboys 30 (needed 45)
• Vikings 34-Cowboys 26 (needed 35)
• Chargers 34- Cowboys 17 (needed 35)
• Giants 34 - Cowboys 17 (needed 35)

2026

• Giants 28- Cowboys 20 (needed 29)
• Ravens 34- Cowboys 31 (needed 35)
• Bucs 24- Cowboys 16 (needed 25)

In the 12 losses we’ve suffered under Schotty, two of them we needed to score 45 to win, six of them we needed to score over 30 and 4 of them over 25 points to win. ALL of those losses required above league average scoring to win those games.

That doesn’t count the tie we had last year that required us to score 40 to avoid a loss.

And ok…the 9 wins we’ve had under Schotty didn’t always require 30 or more. That’s a very small consolation.

I’m just trying to paint an accurate picture of what our Dallas Cowboys are right now.

See, now you're just focusing on the losses. That ignores defensive performance when the offense does well and they win. And, going into a deeper dive and specifically looking at the scores is going beyond the stats to tell the story (which is good).

The point I'm getting at, is not that this defense has been satisfactory in it's performance by any stretch of the imagination, it is that it's not sound analysis to only look at things through the perspective of how one half of the team does. Especially when what one side does has an impact on the other side.

The Browns for example have had a pretty good defense for awhile, but their offense is so putrid at times that the score doesn't paint a good light on the defense either.

 

[Kwyn]

So far in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure, his overall record in 22 games as HC is 9-12-1. Obviously a lot more football to go this season and the NFC Least is shaping up to be a race for mediocrity, and we are just a game back. Plenty of time to get up off the mat.

There are two stats I ran across however that I think sums up what this team is most challenged with:
STAT ONE (Involving scoring)

• When Cowboys score less than 30 points, Schotty’s record is 1-10.
• When the Cowboys score 30 or more, Schotty’s record is 8-2-1.
• The NFL avg for pts per game for teams is 23.

STAT TWO (offensive possessions)

• Through 5 games, the Cowboys have the least number of offensive possessions with 45, or 9 possessions per game. League avg is 10.4 per game. Sea leads the league with 62 possessions or 12.4 possessions per game.
• When you have to score 30 or more to win, and you don’t get that many possessions in a game, your offense is in a place where it has to score almost every time it has the ball.

Through 22 games under Schotty, we have less than a 10% chance of winning if we score less than 30. Ouch.

The hope for improvement: GETTING TURNOVERS AND SHORT POSSESSIONS FROM OPPONENTS. Turnovers and extra stops from your defense give your offense extra possessions along with some short fields.

Without more TOs from our defense giving our offense more possessions, our offense will have to continue to score 30 or more each week to win.

Hopefully Mike Pettine can help Chris Parker dial up some stops and TOs.

Bob

Thinking back to one of your preseason posts that centered around “what has to change”, I believe penalties was one of the main bullet points

2025:

• Penalties: 133 (1st)

2026: 5 games

• Penalties: 35 (24th)

We hear a lot about discipline, and last year the penalties were constantly referenced as the most obvious sign of it

This year, when we talk about discipline it’s maintaining rush lanes and coverage or gaps in focus with ball security and securing passes.

It was a critical failure in 2025 that, so far, looks to be improved.

Just thought I would throw that in there.

 

[Diehardblues]

And we have a front office who all off-season were busting buttons with pride about how well they addressed the defense.

It’s still only about a third of the season gone so it’s possible to turn it around. Just hard to have faith in the people making decisions.

Problem is the better teams and coaching staffs out there can exploit our weaknesses.

Don’t see how we can turn it around enough on defense. The talent appears to be far over hyped. I’d say the acquisitions must be on the downside of their careers and probably why were expendable. Including Q.

We made a desperate move for him last year to save the season . And gave up a 1st and 2nd . Which still hasn’t panned out. And we’ve thrown in another 2nd for Porter.

We’ve about given away any capital we gained from Parsons and still havent improved defense. Could become the worse debacle in Cowboys history. Not just the trade but the attempt to overcome it.

 

[Bobhaze]

Bob

Thinking back to one of your preseason posts that centered around “what has to change”, I believe penalties was one of the main bullet points

2025:

• Penalties: 133 (1st)

2026: 5 games

• Penalties: 35 (24th)

We hear a lot about discipline, and last year the penalties were constantly referenced as the most obvious sign of it

This year, when we talk about discipline it’s maintaining rush lanes and coverage or gaps in focus with ball security and securing passes.

It was a critical failure in 2025 that, so far, looks to be improved.

Just thought I would throw that in there.

Great point Kwyn. Good area of improvement.

 

[Diehardblues]

Kevin here are the scores needed to win in the Cowboys 12 losses under Brian Schottenheimer:

2025

• Eagles 24-Cowboys 20 (needed 25)
• Bears 31- Cowboys 14 (needed 32)
• Panthers 30- Cowboys 27 (needed 31)
• Broncos 44- Cowboys 22 (needed 45)
• Cards 27- Cowboys 17 (needed 28)
• Lions 44- Cowboys 30 (needed 45)
• Vikings 34-Cowboys 26 (needed 35)
• Chargers 34- Cowboys 17 (needed 35)
• Giants 34 - Cowboys 17 (needed 35)

2026

• Giants 28- Cowboys 20 (needed 29)
• Ravens 34- Cowboys 31 (needed 35)
• Bucs 24- Cowboys 16 (needed 25)

In the 12 losses we’ve suffered under Schotty, two of them we needed to score 45 to win, six of them we needed to score over 30 and 4 of them over 25 points to win. ALL of those losses required above league average scoring to win those games.

That doesn’t count the tie we had last year that required us to score 40 to avoid a loss.

And ok…the 9 wins we’ve had under Schotty didn’t always require 30 or more. That’s a very small consolation.

I’m just trying to paint an accurate picture of what our Dallas Cowboys are right now.

The accurate picture is a historically bad defense .

 

[ArtClink]

What did we get ourselves into hiring shotty!!?

He makes Jerry feel comfortable, which priority wise is way more important than winning championships.