ABQ/ABQJr's Easter Mock (or at least started on Easter)

[Sydla]

The "injury flag" on Tuitt is somewhat stretched. We aren't talking about torn muscles or ACLs or anything like that. One is a freak injury - a hernia - that any joe schmoe can get and if properly cared for, won't be a problem for you. The other is a stress fracture which could be a concern but it wasn't painful enough or debilitating enough where Tuitt couldn't work out and run (he could have run at the NFL Combine but protocols forced him to sit out) with it. From all indications, the surgery was fine and he's expecting a full recovery.

So think the whole notion that he's an injury risk like say Easley might be, is a total stretch.

But I do agree that his ideal fit is likely as a 3-4 DE and he might be most effective in a 3T spot in a 4-3. I guess you could play him in a pinch and certain situations as a SDE but I don't think that would be the best spot for him.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Nothing is impossible, but the draft is about probabilities.

At his current weight, Tuitt would be the biggest pure 4-3 DE in the league. Red Bryant is bigger but Seattle ran a hybrid front and he didn't function as a pure 4-3 DE. When they were in a true 4-3 type front they would bring in guys like Bennett and Avril to replace Bryant.

The probability of a prediction is very low when you are predicting a draft pick to be the biggest guy at his position in the league.

Based on what?

 

[xwalker]

Based on what?

Based on probability theory.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Based on probability theory.

Which somehow says that a guy who is 295-300 can not play DE in a 43? I guess I don't get it. Based on what I've seen from this player, he has the physical ability to play DE in a 43. If he has the physical ability, how do probabilities suggest that he can not be successful?

 

[jterrell]

No. I'm watching him run away from RBs for a TD of about 75 yards. I don't care who the team is. If you can run 75 yards and not be brought down from behind by a skilled player, thats impressive and that does not suggest slow, by any means. If you don't agree, that's fine but what I am suggesting is perfectly reasonable. At least, these guys think it is.

http://BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1/scoutingreport2014stuitt.php

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/stephon-tuitt?id=2543483

http://nfldraftgeek.com/stephontuitt_scoutingreport.html

And there are several others who also believe he can play DE in a 43. The fact that he can do either is upside IMO. I think he can play DE in a 43. In the great Eagle Defenses of the early 90s, Reggie White was the LDE and Clyde Simmons was the RDE and they both went about 6-5 295. This is not an unheard of idea or some revolutionary concept. It has been done in the past.

First, yup you do have guys agreeing with you on 4-3 End in some capacity. Not sure any of these guys are really touting that but they do believe he can do it on those write ups.

Reggie White came into the league as a 270 pound DE that ran a 4.7 40. He was the 4th overall pick.
He did build up to 300 pounds at his heaviest and handle DE but that was largely because he was one of the strongest, most technical players to ever play the game of football. No one is confusing Tuitt for a guy like Reggie White.

What White did is what you expect. Gain weight and strength after you enter the league.
It is what Tuitt very likely does.

There really isn't a draft prospect you an compare Tuitt to because guys who come to the combine at 6'5" and 304 are DTs every day and twice on Sundays. .

Again Tuitt played 3-4 DE and 4 man DT at Notre Dame. He isn't an edge guy. Trying to teach him that role while asking him to also lose weight is a recipe for a bust. Might be something to consider at 47 but not at 26.

This could be a great pick because his injuries have left him unable to truly shine since 2012. But from game 10 or so of 2012 he hasn't been an R1 pick and he hasn't looked anything like a 4-3 DE.

 

[jterrell]

Which somehow says that a guy who is 295-300 can not play DE in a 43? I guess I don't get it. Based on what I've seen from this player, he has the physical ability to play DE in a 43. If he has the physical ability, how do probabilities suggest that he can not be successful?

He hasn't even weighed 295 yet since 2012....
You are projecting what you think he might be able to do on top of what he hasn't yet done.

It is very improbable.

He says himself without any official weigh in he made 299.
You've somehow peeled off more weight.
But at the combine he was 304.
That was his job interview where he was aiming for the best shape of his life.

What you are talking about is not just improbable it is illogical.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

First, yup you do have guys agreeing with you on 4-3 End in some capacity. Not sure any of these guys are really touting that but they do believe he can do it on those write ups.

Reggie White came into the league as a 270 pound DE that ran a 4.7 40. He was the 4th overall pick.
He did build up to 300 pounds at his heaviest and handle DE but that was largely because he was one of the strongest, most technical players to ever play the game of football. No one is confusing Tuitt for a guy like Reggie White.

What White did is what you expect. Gain weight and strength after you enter the league.
It is what Tuitt very likely does.

There really isn't a draft prospect you an compare Tuitt to because guys who come to the combine at 6'5" and 304 are DTs every day and twice on Sundays. .

Again Tuitt played 3-4 DE and 4 man DT at Notre Dame. He isn't an edge guy. Trying to teach him that role while asking him to also lose weight is a recipe for a bust. Might be something to consider at 47 but not at 26.

This could be a great pick because his injuries have left him unable to truly shine since 2012. But from game 10 or so of 2012 he hasn't been an R1 pick and he hasn't looked anything like a 4-3 DE.

Reggie White did not play DE at 270 in Philly. He played around 295 there. Having said this, I don't disagree with you but nothing I'm reading here suggest that Tuitt can not play DE in a 43. I would also remind you that the other DE in that unit, Simmons, also played at around 295 and he didn't run a 4.7. I don't think you would have to teach him much to play in a 43. It's not that tough a transition to be honest. Physically, it's a lot easier.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

He hasn't even weighed 295 yet since 2012....
You are projecting what you think he might be able to do on top of what he hasn't yet done.

It is very improbable.

He says himself without any official weigh in he made 299.
You've somehow peeled off more weight.
But at the combine he was 304.
That was his job interview where he was aiming for the best shape of his life.

What you are talking about is not just improbable it is illogical.

It's the draft. Every single discussion, on this board about any player is a projection. That's what the draft is JT. However, I would also remind you that he weighed over 300 as a direct result of a Hernia injury. It's not beyond the realm of possibility to think that he can play at around 295 once he's seen a full NFL workout regiment but lets say he doesn't. Lets say he plays at 300. Does it matter if he posses the physical capabilities to play DE? All that size does is make him even harder to account for.

 

[xwalker]

Which somehow says that a guy who is 295-300 can not play DE in a 43? I guess I don't get it. Based on what I've seen from this player, he has the physical ability to play DE in a 43. If he has the physical ability, how do probabilities suggest that he can not be successful?

If you don't understand probability theory, I probably can't explain it to you on a message board.

Do you know what a Bell Curve is?

If you make a bell curve of using the weight of all current NFL 4-3 DEs, then most of them would be in the Green area in the Bell Curve plot below. Tuitt's weight would be out at the very far right or off the chart depending on whether or not Red Bryant is considered a true 4-3 DE.

The probability is based on how Tuitt fits within the historical data, not how good of a player that you think he is.

Would you bet on red if a roulette wheel had 50 black spaces and 1 red even if the red was really shiny?

 

[jterrell]

The "injury flag" on Tuitt is somewhat stretched. We aren't talking about torn muscles or ACLs or anything like that. One is a freak injury - a hernia - that any joe schmoe can get and if properly cared for, won't be a problem for you. The other is a stress fracture which could be a concern but it wasn't painful enough or debilitating enough where Tuitt couldn't work out and run (he could have run at the NFL Combine but protocols forced him to sit out) with it. From all indications, the surgery was fine and he's expecting a full recovery.

So think the whole notion that he's an injury risk like say Easley might be, is a total stretch.

But I do agree that his ideal fit is likely as a 3-4 DE and he might be most effective in a 3T spot in a 4-3. I guess you could play him in a pinch and certain situations as a SDE but I don't think that would be the best spot for him.

The vast majority of society does not have a body that can withstand playing in the NFL.
When a player has issues in college with health those are ALWAYS red flags.
Doesn't mean Tuitt becomes "off the board" but a hernia is an injury caused by exertion and weight.
That is not just some freak thing unrelated to playing football.
Every measure of treatment for a hernia says --don't do anything like play DL in the NFL, lol.

Again, Tuitt, if fully healthy, might rate the 35th best player in this draft.
After injury to end 2012 and 2013 I'd say you move him down at least 10 spots.
Especially since his 2012 injury for a hernia saw him report gaining about 20 pounds.

Long and interesting discussion on the player. Could be a real sleeper but also could have a very short unremarkable NFL career.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

If you don't understand probability theory, I probably can't explain it to you on a message board.

Do you know what a Bell Curve is?

If you make a bell curve of using the weight of all current NFL 4-3 DEs, then most of them would be in the Green area in the Bell Curve plot below. Tuitt's weight would be out at the very far right or off the chart depending on whether or not Red Bryant is considered a true 4-3 DE.

The probability is based on how Tuitt fits within the historical data, not how good of a player that you think he is.

Would you bet on red if a roulette wheel had 50 black spaces and 1 red even if the red was really shiny?

OK, I appreciate you trying to explain this but I do understand Probability theory. The issue is that it does not apply here, IMO. You are trying to prove something, based on Probabilities factoring in Size as the prime denominator. That does not hold water, IMO. Size is a none issue if the player has the physical ability. Under your probability theory, you are assuming that all players are alike. This is not the case here. If you believe that this player has the physical gifts to be able to satisfy the position requirements, then ability becomes the paradigm and not size.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

The vast majority of society does not have a body that can withstand playing in the NFL.
When a player has issues in college with health those are ALWAYS red flags.
Doesn't mean Tuitt becomes "off the board" but a hernia is an injury caused by exertion and weight.
That is not just some freak thing unrelated to playing football.
Every measure of treatment for a hernia says --don't do anything like play DL in the NFL, lol.

Again, Tuitt, if fully healthy, might rate the 35th best player in this draft.
After injury to end 2012 and 2013 I'd say you move him down at least 10 spots.
Especially since his 2012 injury for a hernia saw him report gaining about 20 pounds.

Long and interesting discussion on the player. Could be a real sleeper but also could have a very short unremarkable NFL career.

This is a different discussion. If you are going to identify this player as a Medical Risk, then OK. I can understand that. I don't believe that this is the issue with this player, by any stretch, but I do acknowledge that if this is the case, then that's a easy reason why you would not draft this player. Again, I don't think that Tuitt falls into this category. Heck, we've take two players with more sever injury histories then this one in the past couple of drafts. I guess we'll see how the team evaluates him.

 

[xwalker]

OK, I appreciate you trying to explain this but I do understand Probability theory. The issue is that it does not apply here, IMO. You are trying to prove something, based on Probabilities factoring in Size as the prime denominator. That does not hold water, IMO. Size is a none issue if the player has the physical ability. Under your probability theory, you are assuming that all players are alike. This is not the case here. If you believe that this player has the physical gifts to be able to satisfy the position requirements, then ability becomes the paradigm and not size.

That is completely not how it works.

You're predicting something that has either never happened or rarely happened and the sample size is large.

 

[jterrell]

It's the draft. Every single discussion, on this board about any player is a projection. That's what the draft is JT. However, I would also remind you that he weighed over 300 as a direct result of a Hernia injury. It's not beyond the realm of possibility to think that he can play at around 295 once he's seen a full NFL workout regiment but lets say he doesn't. Lets say he plays at 300. Does it matter if he posses the physical capabilities to play DE? All that size does is make him even harder to account for.

The NFL draft undoubtedly is about projection... to the NEXT LEVEL. But what you are talking about is a position change and those projections are more rare and seldom happen to R1 guys. Can end up with Brian Urlacher or can end up with any of a thousand busts.

Physical capabilities are very debatable. And when a guy has zero tested measures it is really beyond pointless to even discuss. Its like preferring the color red to the color blue.

I did NOT see the physical capability from Tuitt to play 4-3 DE in the games I saw. Bad loss to Bama where he was injured and truly dominated by a once a generation OL, and against OU in 2013 where OU physically dominated both line of scrimmages and the clock.

Again just not sure where the shock or surprise is here. You are projecting a guy to do something he hasn't done without the measurables 99% of the players in this draft class have provided at either the combine or Pro Days. That's the very definition of a gamble. As XW is pointing out you are also trying to do so as an outlier in terms of physical attributes we DO possess for Tuitt as relates to NFL comps. AND you are trying to buck the norm and suggest the player weigh less as an NFL pro than he did in college.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

That is completely not how it works.

You're predicting something that has either never happened or rarely happened and the sample size is large.

The sample size is not large. In order to claim that it is, you must prove that there have been many people who are 300 and have the athletic ability to play DE. There have not been all that many of those guys.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

The NFL draft undoubtedly is about projection... to the NEXT LEVEL. But what you are talking about is a position change and those projections are more rare and seldom happen to R1 guys. Can end up with Brian Urlacher or can end up with any of a thousand busts.

Physical capabilities are very debatable. And when a guy has zero tested measures it is really beyond pointless to even discuss. Its like preferring the color red to the color blue.

I did NOT see the physical capability from Tuitt to play 4-3 DE in the games I saw. Bad loss to Bama where he was injured and truly dominated by a once a generation OL, and against OU in 2013 where OU physically dominated both line of scrimmages and the clock.

Again just not sure where the shock or surprise is here. You are projecting a guy to do something he hasn't done without the measurables 99% of the players in this draft class have provided at either the combine or Pro Days. That's the very definition of a gamble. As XW is pointing out you are also trying to do so as an outlier in terms of physical attributes we DO possess for Tuitt as relates to NFL comps. AND you are trying to buck the norm and suggest the player weigh less as an NFL pro than he did in college.

Melton was a FB. He's now a DT. It does happen. There are plenty of examples of this. We have two or three highly rated OTs who are being projected and rated to Guard, based on the same kinds of projections. I don't agree with you JT. That's not a shock, I'm sure. I just think this kid has some very unique physical talents. I think he could be special at DE.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Stephen Tuitt reminds me of Michael Brockers with ample size and ability to play DE and DT. Like Brockers he matches up well vs the massive OLineman in the NFL, he's not going to get thrown around out there like DWare or some of the smaller OLBs/DEs available in the Draft.

Not saying he will succeed above the rest but he has an advantage vs some of the other prospects because of his size plus ability vs the Oline and his versatility is noted as well.

That said, #47 though he may go sooner, would be a nice pick for him and us.

 

[jterrell]

This is a different discussion. If you are going to identify this player as a Medical Risk, then OK. I can understand that. I don't believe that this is the issue with this player, by any stretch, but I do acknowledge that if this is the case, then that's a easy reason why you would not draft this player. Again, I don't think that Tuitt falls into this category. Heck, we've take two players with more sever injury histories then this one in the past couple of drafts. I guess we'll see how the team evaluates him.

Not in round 1 they haven't. I think injury risk with Tuitt is a minor concern but one that does cost him some minimal deduction. I am actually more concerned that injury caused him to gain weight that he could not lose over an entire football season. Showing up to Fall camp 20 pounds over 2012 weight is a concern, playing the Bowl game at 311 is a red flag and suggests that is what he is. Getting back down to 304 after combine training suggests that is probably about where he is as a human being. If I did that level of training for a month I'd lose 30 pounds and be at my college playing weight of 185.

If I am Dallas I rate Tuitt a late r2 guy. He is a 3T/1T for me with upside potential. I recognize his value is probably a half round higher for 3-4 teams who see him as a DE with pass rush upside.

I rate Crichton higher because at 273 with 4.8 speed he is about the prototype DE for me. He can play SDE and WDE in a Marinelli scheme. He's 20 pounds heavier than Selvie was coming out of school and yet faster.

 

[jterrell]

Melton was a FB. He's now a DT. It does happen. There are plenty of examples of this. We have two or three highly rated OTs who are being projected and rated to Guard, based on the same kinds of projections. I don't agree with you JT. That's not a shock, I'm sure. I just think this kid has some very unique physical talents. I think he could be special at DE.

Did Melton did drafted in R1?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Not in round 1 they haven't. I think injury risk with Tuitt is a minor concern but one that does cost him some minimal deduction. I am actually more concerned that injury caused him to gain weight that he could not lose over an entire football season. Showing up to Fall camp 20 pounds over 2012 weight is a concern, playing the Bowl game at 311 is a red flag and suggests that is what he is. Getting back down to 304 after combine training suggests that is probably about where he is as a human being. If I did that level of training for a month I'd lose 30 pounds and be at my college playing weight of 185.

If I am Dallas I rate Tuitt a late r2 guy. He is a 3T/1T for me with upside potential. I recognize his value is probably a half round higher for 3-4 teams who see him as a DE with pass rush upside.

I rate Crichton higher because at 273 with 4.8 speed he is about the prototype DE for me. He can play SDE and WDE in a Marinelli scheme. He's 20 pounds heavier than Selvie was coming out of school and yet faster.

I see it just the opposite. I like Crichton but his physical upside is limited. He is what he is. I don't ever see him being able to play Weakside DE. He's strictly a Strongside DE IMO, which limits his value. I think he's a solid round 2 guy. I think he's a great value in the 3rd. Tuitt, he has much more size and the same kind of speed with more quickness in my eyes. His upside, along with his versatility allows for him to be a 1st round pick IMO.