ABQ/ABQJr's Easter Mock (or at least started on Easter)

[xwalker]

The sample size is not large. In order to claim that it is, you must prove that there have been many people who are 300 and have the athletic ability to play DE. There have not been all that many of those guys.

Again, that's not how probability and statistics work.

The sample size is all players that have ever played DE in the NFL in a 4-3 defense.

Look, I can go back and forth in a disagreement with a guy like @jterrell because he uses or acknowledges logic. Believe me, we've had some heated disagreements.

You don't like to use or acknowledge logic which makes this discussion a waste of time. You might have a great eye for talent, I don't know. But when it comes to issues like the salary cap or the probability of an an issue, you will not use or acknowledge logic.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Did Melton did drafted in R1?

No, but Melton is not the only guy being discussed here. There are several guys in this draft who are being discussed in Round 1 who will play different positions. Same thing happened last year. It's not unheard of. I do agree that the lack of actual measured testing is a concern. I won't argue that. However, I don't agree on what the tape shows. I see a guy who does have a lot of natural ability.

 

[jterrell]

Stephen Tuitt reminds me of Michael Brockers with ample size and ability to play DE and DT. Like Brockers he matches up well vs the massive OLineman in the NFL, he's not going to get thrown around out there like DWare or some of the smaller OLBs/DEs available in the Draft.

Not saying he will succeed above the rest but he has an advantage vs some of the other prospects because of his size plus ability vs the Oline and his versatility is noted as well.

That said, #47 though he may go sooner, would be a nice pick for him and us.

Brockers is plus picture what I see as well. A really big, athletic guy that will play inside. 4.5 - 6 sack a year type guy. Can grow bigger and stronger.
47 would work for me in Dallas on Tuitt. But downside is a guy lost in a 4-3 altogether like Marcus Spears that struggles to win pass rush battles without size and strength advantages. Spears was 6'4" and 307. Thought was we'd get him to 295 and he'd be a beast pass rusher.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Again, that's not how probability and statistics work.

The sample size is all players that have ever played DE in the NFL in a 4-3 defense.

Look, I can go back and forth in a disagreement with a guy like @jterrell because he uses or acknowledges logic. Believe me, we've had some heated disagreements.

You don't like to use or acknowledge logic which makes this discussion a waste of time. You might have a great eye for talent, I don't know. But when it comes to issues like the salary cap or the probability of an an issue, you will not use or acknowledge logic.

I don't agree. I don't like to use what you term as acceptable. There are always two sides to every discussion. However, I agree that this is a waste of time.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Stephen Tuitt reminds me of Michael Brockers with ample size and ability to play DE and DT. Like Brockers he matches up well vs the massive OLineman in the NFL, he's not going to get thrown around out there like DWare or some of the smaller OLBs/DEs available in the Draft.

Not saying he will succeed above the rest but he has an advantage vs some of the other prospects because of his size plus ability vs the Oline and his versatility is noted as well.

That said, #47 though he may go sooner, would be a nice pick for him and us.

I think Tuitt has more agility but that's a pretty good comparison as well. I would not be unhappy at all of we got a player like Brockers at 16.

 

[xwalker]

I don't agree. I don't like to use what you term as acceptable. There are always two sides to every discussion. However, I agree that this is a waste of time.

Actually, there were 3 sides in this discussion. Me, you and jterrell.

 

[jterrell]

No, but Melton is not the only guy being discussed here. There are several guys in this draft who are being discussed in Round 1 who will play different positions. Same thing happened last year. It's not unheard of. I do agree that the lack of actual measured testing is a concern. I won't argue that. However, I don't agree on what the tape shows. I see a guy who does have a lot of natural ability.

Who else in r1 is being considered for a position change? Definitely not a player I'd be interested in drafting.

The way to not suck at drafting is to gather tons of data and compile it to make common sense picks and not outsmart yourself.
Swinging for the fences seldom works.

I fully acknowledge Tuitt may be a monster as an NFL player. He's flashed that in college. He's also played some real poor collegiate ball and spent an entire season overweight for even a 3-4 DE.

You are less risk averse than me. Watching Jerry has me only betting the favorites and being as conservative as possible.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Brockers is plus picture what I see as well. A really big, athletic guy that will play inside. 4.5 - 6 sack a year type guy. Can grow bigger and stronger.
47 would work for me in Dallas on Tuitt. But downside is a guy lost in a 4-3 altogether like Marcus Spears that struggles to win pass rush battles without size and strength advantages. Spears was 6'4" and 307. Thought was we'd get him to 295 and he'd be a beast pass rusher.

Part of the problem with Spears was that he never wanted to play DE. Also, when we drafted Spears, we drafted him to be a 34 DE. Spears, IMO, was never the same kind of athlete as I believe Tuitt is. Spears had a very different Body type. He was 307 at 6'3". Tuitt is much more angular with longer legs.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Actually, there were 3 sides in this discussion. Me, you and jterrell.

As you wish. Since the thread is 4 pages long, I'm going to tell you that it's more then 3 but it is your choice as to how you view this.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Who else in r1 is being considered for a position change? Definitely not a player I'd be interested in drafting.

The way to not suck at drafting is to gather tons of data and compile it to make common sense picks and not outsmart yourself.
Swinging for the fences seldom works.

I fully acknowledge Tuitt may be a monster as an NFL player. He's flashed that in college. He's also played some real poor collegiate ball and spent an entire season overweight for even a 3-4 DE.

You are less risk averse than me. Watching Jerry has me only betting the favorites and being as conservative as possible.

Martin. He's a LT who is considered to be the best OG choice in this draft by many. Anthony Barr. He's a OLB who is considered by many to be a better fit as a 43 DE and he too is a 1st round consideration. Dee Ford, though I don't believe he is a better fit at DE then OLB. Mosely is being considered as an OLB or an ILB fit. All of those guys are 1st Rd potential picks.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Again, that's not how probability and statistics work.

The sample size is all players that have ever played DE in the NFL in a 4-3 defense.

Look, I can go back and forth in a disagreement with a guy like @jterrell because he uses or acknowledges logic. Believe me, we've had some heated disagreements.

You don't like to use or acknowledge logic which makes this discussion a waste of time. You might have a great eye for talent, I don't know. But when it comes to issues like the salary cap or the probability of an an issue, you will not use or acknowledge logic.

For the record, even if you go back and account for all players who have ever played DE in a 43, the NFL does not qualify as a normally distributed population. The Bell Curve theory that projects size vs ability is skewed. You are talking about individuals who are gifted, beyond what is normally attributed. In General population, that works. In the NFL, not so much. I respect your opinion but I don't believe your Bell Theory curve amounts to much in this instance.

However, that's just my opinion.

 

[xwalker]

For the record, even if you go back and account for all players who have ever played DE in a 43, the NFL does not qualify as a normally distributed population. The Bell Curve theory that projects size vs ability is skewed. You are talking about individuals who are gifted, beyond what is normally attributed. In General population, that works. In the NFL, not so much. I respect your opinion but I don't believe your Bell Theory curve amounts to much in this instance.

However, that's just my opinion.

A bell curve is relavent to whatever you are analyzing. The weight of a draft prospect is completely relavent to NFL players. My bell curve example did not include the average population. It compares a player to other players.

Just curious, what type of work do you do?

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

A bell curve is relavent to whatever you are analyzing. The weight of a draft prospect is completely relavent to NFL players. My bell curve example did not include the average population. It compares a player to other players.

Just curious, what type of work do you do?

I'm not really sure what your trying to say in your "bell curve" argument. So what if Tuitt is not close to the mean of NFL DE's... That doesn't mean that he can't be a good DE in the league.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

A bell curve is relavent to whatever you are analyzing. The weight of a draft prospect is completely relavent to NFL players. My bell curve example did not include the average population. It compares a player to other players.

Just curious, what type of work do you do?

To a point. The Bell Curve principle is based on normal distributive. The NFL is anything but that. You add into the equation that variables or players change over time, relative to size. Even if you wanted to use a Bell Curve for all DEs who have ever played in the NFL, you couldn't because the players change physically. Besides, even in a Bell Curve, you account for outliers. There are always a given number of people who do not fall within the curve. This is the problem with the Curve in a scenario such as this.

I would suggest to you that a Bell Curve is not relative to the NFL Draft. If we adopted what you recommend, nobody would have ever drafted Reggie White because he doesn't fit. Nobody would have ever drafted Ed Jones for the same reason. You are evaluating subject types, that by definition, fall outside of the curve. This just doesn't work for me.

 

[xwalker]

To a point. The Bell Curve principle is based on normal distributive. The NFL is anything but that. You add into the equation that variables or players change over time, relative to size. Even if you wanted to use a Bell Curve for all DEs who have ever played in the NFL, you couldn't because the players change physically. Besides, even in a Bell Curve, you account for outliers. There are always a given number of people who do not fall within the curve. This is the problem with the Curve in a scenario such as this.

I would suggest to you that a Bell Curve is not relative to the NFL Draft. If we adopted what you recommend, nobody would have ever drafted Reggie White because he doesn't fit. Nobody would have ever drafted Ed Jones for the same reason. You are evaluating subject types, that by definition, fall outside of the curve. This just doesn't work for me.

My original example was just of current NFL players.

The outliers represent the low probabilities.

Reggie White was drafted to be a DT. He fit perfectly in that bell curve.

 

[xwalker]

My original example was just of current NFL players.

The outliers represent the low probabilities.

Reggie White was drafted to be a DT. He fit perfectly in that bell curve.

In the draft, teams do want players that have better than average measurables. Obviously you wouldn't downgrade a player for being faster than other players. Height was a positive for Too Tall.

In his case there is the issues of small sample size. Hw many 6-9 players have failed in the NFL?

There have been many many guys like Tuitt at 6-6, 300 and less than 1 percent have played as a 4-3 DE.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

My original example was just of current NFL players.

The outliers represent the low probabilities.

Reggie White was drafted to be a DT. He fit perfectly in that bell curve.

Debatable at best. He was listed as a DL by the Memphis Showboats in 1985 but, when he came to the NFL, which is what we are talking about, he was a DE.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

In the draft, teams do want players that have better than average measurables. Obviously you wouldn't downgrade a player for being faster than other players. Height was a positive for Too Tall.

In his case there is the issues of small sample size. Hw many 6-9 players have failed in the NFL?

There have been many many guys like Tuitt at 6-6, 300 and less than 1 percent have played as a 4-3 DE.

, It still doesn't mean he can't play it or won't be good at it.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

In the draft, teams do want players that have better than average measurables. Obviously you wouldn't downgrade a player for being faster than other players. Height was a positive for Too Tall.

In his case there is the issues of small sample size. Hw many 6-9 players have failed in the NFL?

There have been many many guys like Tuitt at 6-6, 300 and less than 1 percent have played as a 4-3 DE.

My point exactly. There is not enough of a sample size here to evaluate properly and there are always players who are going to exceed the curve.

 

[xwalker]

My point exactly. There is not enough of a sample size here to evaluate properly and there are always players who are going to exceed the curve.

There is a significant sample size of players Tuitt's size and 99.9% of them are DTs.