Dallas WR by direction and target depth

[Kevinicus]

The qb is part of the problem, you're being disingenuous.

That's what he does. He picks players to have an agenda either for or against and then tries to make everything fit that agenda. He is one of the worst posters as far as doing analysis. I used to admire the "work" he did, until I started looking closer at plays and seeing that what he said was happening, or what players should have done, was not really the case.

 

[DanA]

The OP shows 12 drops for Dez and 3 for Butler.

I rather follow the majority, and statisticians in which all them have 6.

The OP shows 6 drops for Dez. As an example

5 up the middle
5 from slot

That's not 10 drops. That's 5 drops counted twice. It's a little unclear but you guys I think are misinterpreting the stats. The first category breaks it down into three areas of the field and shows all 6 of Dez's drops, the other categories look at the types of throws and position the receiver was in. Those are revisiting the same throws but breaking them down differently.

 

[xwalker]

The OP shows 6 drops for Dez. As an example

5 up the middle
5 from slot

That's not 10 drops. That's 5 drops counted twice. It's a little unclear but you guys I think are misinterpreting the stats. The first category breaks it down into three areas of the field and shows all 6 of Dez's drops, the other categories look at the types of throws and position the receiver was in. Those are revisiting the same throws but breaking them down differently.

Look again. Go line by line. 1 dp means 1 drop.

1
5
0

0
2
2

2
0
0

Bryant 74.8
<10 yd 73% 6.6 ypa 56% yac 79.4
L 12 of 15 70 yd 0 td 1 int 44 yac 1 dp 58.3
M 25 of 34 270 yd 2 td 2 int 148 yac 5 dp 91.5
R 7 of 11 53 yd 1 td 1 int 28 yac 0 dp 67.6

10-19 yd 45% 6.7 ypa 20% yac 88.5
L 4 of 11 65 yd 1 td 0 int 8 yac 0 dp 84.3
M 11 of 21 150 yd 1 td 0 int 27 yac 2 dp 86.0
R 6 of 15 100 yd 1 td 0 int 28 yac 2 dp 77.6

20+ yd 21% 6.8 ypa 1% yac 33.7
L 1 of 9 33 yd 0 td 0 int 0 yac 2 dp 42.4
M 1 of 3 21 yd 0 td 1 int 1 yac 0 dp 18.1
R 2 of 7 76 yd 0 td 0 int 0 yac 0 dp 68.8

 

[xwalker]

That's what he does. He picks players to have an agenda either for or against and then tries to make everything fit that agenda. He is one of the worst posters as far as doing analysis. I used to admire the "work" he did, until I started looking closer at plays and seeing that what he said was happening, or what players should have done, was not really the case.

No, you were fine with my analysis until I started criticizing Dez.

 

[percyhoward]

The OP shows 6 drops for Dez. As an example

5 up the middle
5 from slot

That's not 10 drops. That's 5 drops counted twice. It's a little unclear but you guys I think are misinterpreting the stats. The first category breaks it down into three areas of the field and shows all 6 of Dez's drops, the other categories look at the types of throws and position the receiver was in. Those are revisiting the same throws but breaking them down differently.

PFF has Dez with 12 dropped passes in 2017. Again, their drop numbers are not as conservative as others' because PFF considers a drop as whatever's both catchable and incomplete. Other sources don't keep track of catchable vs. uncatchable passes, so it's very unlikely that their formula would be "catchable + incomplete = drop."

 

[Dre11]

I said quoted by the media. Not sites that display stats.

The game announcer in the Cowboys final game said Dez had 12 drops. That's what I mean in regards to quoted by the media.

PercyHoward is the stats guy around here. I don't think anybody that's been here long would question his stats.

That Dallas announcer...lol I take the guys that do it for a living... all the sites have 6, I’ll go with them as the most consistent.

 

[Dre11]

PFF has Dez with 12 dropped passes in 2017. Again, their drop numbers are not as conservative as others' because PFF considers a drop as whatever's both catchable and incomplete. Other sources don't keep track of catchable vs. uncatchable passes, so it's very unlikely that their formula would be "catchable + incomplete = drop."

Different sites have different numbers. The OP has Dez with 12 drops.

Catchable is a subjective concept which is why the stats vary.

The stats with the lower drop numbers are based on the ball being within a few inches of the numbers on the Jersey.

All the sites have the same numbers X, they’re the most consistent. what you might call catchable may not be catchable to someone else. Some would say if a ball hit your hand it’s catchable, which is an old cliche’, as a wide receivers coach ,I can tell you that isn’t always true. For instance a Qb’s touch can be the difference in a catch that hits a wide receiver hand. If a qb is 5 yards away from a receiver and he drills the ball with high heat, it may look as catchable, when in reality it isn’t.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

So on over 20 yards:
Dez 4 of 19

Butler 6 of 9

Butler caught more with less than half the targets.

Maybe it's not the QB...

Is this really the extent to your ability to parse this data for insight?

Maybe i've overrated your football acumen...

 

[percyhoward]

All the sites have the same numbers X, they’re the most consistent. what you might call catchable may not be catchable to someone else. Some would say if a ball hit your hand it’s catchable, which is an old cliche’, as a wide receivers coach ,I can tell you that isn’t always true. For instance a Qb’s touch can be the difference in a catch that hits a wide receiver hand. If a qb is 5 yards away from a receiver and he drills the ball with high heat, it may look as catchable, when in reality it isn’t.

Admittedly, it's all subjective anyway, but within those subjective parameters (and not counting pass break ups), you've got some incomplete passes that are 100% on the receiver, others that are 100% on the QB, and others that fall somewhere in between. Should there be such a thing as an incomplete but catchable pass that is not a drop? I don't think everyone would agree on that answer. It's a matter of personal taste.

You make a good point about touch. Actually, I think already the chips in the football and in the shoulder pads can tell us how fast the ball was traveling and how accurate it was. But even that doesn't account for the fact that accuracy depends on the context of the play. Sometimes, a perfectly placed ball may be three feet to one side of the receiver and six inches off the ground.

 

[xwalker]

Is this really the extent to your ability to parse this data for insight?

Maybe i've overrated your football acumen...

It correlates with the game footage.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It correlates with the game footage.

I'm sure those 19 targets define Dez's season. By that I mean I am not sure....didn't want that to possibly lead to any confusion.

 

[xwalker]

I'm sure those 19 targets define Dez's season. By that I mean I am not sure....didn't want that to possibly lead to any confusion.

Dak was accurate on deep passes to Butler.

Therefore blaming Dak for Dez Bryant's terrible deep pass catch rate would be silly.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Dak was accurate on deep passes to Butler.

Therefore blaming Dak for Dez Bryant's terrible deep pass catch rate would be silly.

Small sample size. Difference in coverage. Many of Dez's deep balls were uncatchable throwaways. Etc etc.

You're somehow trying to prove that Brice is better than Dez. The same Brice who hasn't sniffed any free agency interest this year. Perhaps you are right and every other GM, pro scout and offensive coordinator is wrong.

Maybe just maybe I guess.

 

[Dre11]

Admittedly, it's all subjective anyway, but within those subjective parameters (and not counting pass break ups), you've got some incomplete passes that are 100% on the receiver, others that are 100% on the QB, and others that fall somewhere in between. Should there be such a thing as an incomplete but catchable pass that is not a drop? I don't think everyone would agree on that answer. It's a matter of personal taste.

You make a good point about touch. Actually, I think already the chips in the football and in the shoulder pads can tell us how fast the ball was traveling and how accurate it was. But even that doesn't account for the fact that accuracy depends on the context of the play. Sometimes, a perfectly placed ball may be three feet to one side of the receiver and six inches off the ground.

Dak was accurate on deep passes to Butler.

Therefore blaming Dak for Dez Bryant's terrible deep pass catch rate would be silly.

X, how in the hell can you call yourself a film watcher if you haven’t seen the deep passes Dak was way off to Dez? I can remember off the top of my head one where Dak underthrew Dez badly, threw to outside when Dez had his receiver beat to the inside and Dez had to become the DB, and how many times did he throw the ball too far out down the sidelines? As the poster said as well, the sample size was small with Brice.

 

[Dre11]

Dak was accurate on deep passes to Butler.

Therefore blaming Dak for Dez Bryant's terrible deep pass catch rate would be silly.

In this one you will see 1 clear drop from Dez and about 4 bad balls from Dak

http://www.wfaa.com/article/sports/whats-wrong-with-dak-dez-sunday-the-answer-was-dak/480285020

 

[Dre11]

In this one you will see 1 clear drop from Dez and about 4 bad balls from Dak

http://www.wfaa.com/article/sports/whats-wrong-with-dak-dez-sunday-the-answer-was-dak/480285020

6. In my estimation, that leaves 21 throws that simply weren’t good enough.

Now, I guess there’s a couple of ways you can look at that. On one hand, you can argue that 21 throws is a small minority on the whole. That means 63 percent of Prescott’s incompletions this season haven’t been his fault. It also means that just 15 percent of his throws have been off target.

On the other hand, you can also do some quick math and point out that 21 bad passes in four weeks is an average of five bad balls per game. I'm not sure that's up to snuff for a Pro Bowl quarterback, even if he is having to make tougher throws this season than last

Prescott left a touchdown on the table in Week 1, when he overshot Dez Bryanton two consecutive plays in the first quarter and the Cowboys settled for a field goal. The next week in Denver, he couldn’t quite place the back shoulder ball where he wanted to on multiple occasions – the last of which resulted in a pick-six.

Dallascowboys.com.

 

[Kevinicus]

No, you were fine with my analysis until I started criticizing Dez.

Not really. It's been a good 3 years or so since I stopped giving it much credence. The Dez thing, as far as I'm aware, is fairly new.

 

[percyhoward]

Thanks for the effort you put into that chart. What conclusion do you draw from it, personally?

That Prescott still doesn't know how to use the entire field, and that we wasted a lot of targets throwing deep to Bryant in 2017. The bigger surprise for me was that second part. Basically anything beyond 15 yards was a wasted target.

15+yard targets
Bryant 9 of 36 25% (6.0 ypa)
others 23 of 41 56% (15.6 ypa)

Whoever was at fault, we'd honestly have been better off dumping it off to a RB on those 36 attempts.

Then the other end of the spectrum -- the slot targets.

Bryant 16 of 28 57% (3.9 ypa)
others 40 of 61 66% (6.0 ypa)

Again, blame whomever you want, but what sticks out to me is that it's not normal for a WR1 to be that much worse than the rest of the team. The jury is still very much out on Dak, but there is no question that Dez fell off in 2017.

 

[xwalker]

9

In this one you will see 1 clear drop from Dez and about 4 bad balls from Dak

http://www.wfaa.com/article/sports/whats-wrong-with-dak-dez-sunday-the-answer-was-dak/480285020

That is a throw away. Dez was supposed to run straight but checked up.

 

[Beast_from_East]

That Prescott still doesn't know how to use the entire field, and that we wasted a lot of targets throwing deep to Bryant in 2017. The bigger surprise for me was that second part. Basically anything beyond 15 yards was a wasted target.

15+yard targets
Bryant 9 of 36 25% (6.0 ypa)
others 23 of 41 56% (15.6 ypa)

Whoever was at fault, we'd honestly have been better off dumping it off to a RB on those 36 attempts.

Then the other end of the spectrum -- the slot targets.

Bryant 16 of 28 57% (3.9 ypa)
others 40 of 61 66% (6.0 ypa)

Again, blame whomever you want, but what sticks out to me is that it's not normal for a WR1 to be that much worse than the rest of the team. The jury is still very much out on Dak, but there is no question that Dez fell off in 2017.

Excellent analysis Percy, as usual.

Look fellas, its pretty clear what is going on here..............The team has looked at stats like these, and I would hope many, many more along with game tape and they have come to the conclusion that Dez is about done.

You don't go waving $15 million a year infront of Sammy Watkins if you think otherwise. News flash fellas, they were not going to pay Watkins $15 a year and Dez $17 a year.............so who do you think was going to be the odd man out? If they would have signed Watkins, Dez was gone.

So to summarize, while Dak did regress in 2017, there is no doubt that Dez regressed also. In fact, Dez has regressed so much that the team tried to replace him with Sammy Watkins.

Let that sink in.............they though Sammy Watkins was an upgrade over Dez and they were ready to hand Dez a bus ticket, that is how much they think Dez has left in the tank.