Dallas WR by direction and target depth

[Bleu Star]

I agree, because Witt, twill, and beasley all had career highs in catches yards and tds. Dez is the only one that had bad stats.

I'm glad you agree for once.

 

[gimmesix]

So Antonio Brown is going to come here and produce at the same level he does in Pitt?

Same for Julio?

Are you serious?

QB & scheme are absolutely part of the Dez problem.

As I pointed out in another thread, we were 29th in the league in passes per game and second in the league in rushes per game last year. That has to be considered as a factor in any discussion of receiver production.

We had some clear problems, but obviously if we pass the ball 600 times (which would have put us in the top five) instead of 493, then Dez and others are going to have more catches. In fact, I'll go as far as saying Dez would have ended up with a 1,000-yard receiving season if we had done that just based on the sheer increase in throws.

Now, there were certainly other issues because the passing number would have gone up some if the connections were better, but the fact that we are striving to be a run-heavy team absolutely factors in.

 

[percyhoward]

I assume DP is drops, the NFL has Dez with 5 drops if I am reading the info the OP's stats has Dez with a higher drop rate?

Unlike other sources, PFF keeps track of which passes are catchable or uncatchable. Some sources only consider it a drop if it was a perfect throw. PFF considers any incomplete catchable pass a dropped pass.

 

[xwalker]

If you dont have the all22 then you are just speculating, or regurgitating something that you heard. i know for a fact that dez was doubled every pass play during the raiders game but one, the deep connection. Dak said it and i saw it.

I have the All-22.

Many people here have claimed Dez was doubled often but when I reviewed the specifics, they were confusing zone coverage with double coverage.

Beasley often drew legit double (bracket) coverage, especially on 3rd downs.

I'll review the Raiders game again.

 

[xwalker]

The quarterback and the receiver were both a part of the problem. C'mon, X, you're better than this.

You saw the numbers. Dak was accurate on long passes to Butler.

Dak was not perfect overall but he was a 2nd year QB under a lot of pressure in many games.

Dez is a long term veteran with a huge contract and was the league leader in drops (The drop stats used by announcers).

TWill and Butler were about 65% catch rate and Dez was about 50%.

 

[Jake0]

You saw the numbers. Dak was accurate on long passes to Butler.

Dak was not perfect overall but he was a 2nd year QB under a lot of pressure in many games.

Dez is a long term veteran with a huge contract and was the league leader in drops (The drop stats used by announcers).

TWill and Butler were about 65% catch rate and Dez was about 50%.

So there's this 3 page thread full of posts about how the numbers don't tell the whole story, yet we have stubborn bro here that ignores everything and is adamant about the numbers telling the whole story.

If the numbers tell the whole story, maybe you can clarify why all the stuff that was said in the thread is wrong and how the numbers are indeed telling the whole story of - Dez Sucks, Brice Butler/TWill > Dez.

 

[xwalker]

So Antonio Brown is going to come here and produce at the same level he does in Pitt?

Same for Julio?

Are you serious?

QB & scheme are absolutely part of the Dez problem.

How does Antonio Brown factor in to this discussion?

Roethlisberger
Completion% - 64.2
Yards/completion - 11.8

Dak
Completion% - 62.9
Yards/completion - 10.8

 

[xwalker]

So there's this 3 page thread full of posts about how the numbers don't tell the whole story, yet we have stubborn bro here that ignores everything and is adamant about the numbers telling the whole story.

If the numbers tell the whole story, maybe you can clarify why all the stuff that was said in the thread is wrong and how the numbers are indeed telling the whole story of - Dez Sucks, Brice Butler/TWill > Dez.

I didn't say Butler/TWill were better.

I said their high catch rates indicate that Dak is more accurate than the near 50% catch rate for Dez.

I've studied all of the games. I've rewatched each game multiple times on both the All-22 and the broadcast.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

The latter. The number of catchable passes that were incomplete is listed under "DP," but those are not counted as completions in the numbers.

So if I'm understanding it correctly the numbers don't actually speak to the quality of throw i.e. catchable pass. Rather, it's just simply shows catch vs. attempts in terms of depth of routes.

As such, those trying to draw inference (i.e. see Dez sucks) are full of crap.

 

[xwalker]

Generally, the coverage on a fourth receiver is going to be by the third or fourth corner or even a safety. Few teams look at an offense and say that they've got to do everything they can to stop that fourth receiver. It's silly to look at this comparison and believe all things are equal.

Now, if we want to look at the failure of Dak and Dez to connect on those longer passing, I think that's a legitimate concern. But to draw conclusions about Dez and Butler based on this is similar to those who were saying Hambrick should be starting over Emmitt Smith because Hambrick's numbers as a backup were better. Different roles cannot be judged on an equal basis.

It's not about Dez vs Butler.

Butler just illustrates that Dak is accurate on deep throws.

 

[Jake0]

I didn't say Butler/TWill were better.

I said their high catch rates indicate that Dak is more accurate than the near 50% catch rate for Dez.

I've studied all of the games. I've rewatched each game multiple times on both the All-22 and the broadcast.

Ok that's fine if you were watching the games. Would prefer some examples of Dez just not getting it done when he had good opportunities.

I'm still of the belief as of now that Dez will be fine once a few things happen - Speed WR obtained to stretch the field, Dak improves his play, System gets more creative.
It may never happen with this coaching regime. I would like to see how Dez does with another team but there may never be that opportunity either.

 

[gimmesix]

You saw the numbers. Dak was accurate on long passes to Butler.

Dak was not perfect overall but he was a 2nd year QB under a lot of pressure in many games.

Dez is a long term veteran with a huge contract and was the league leader in drops (The drop stats used by announcers).

TWill and Butler were about 65% catch rate and Dez was about 50%.

There are factors you are ignoring here that cannot be diagnosed without looking at more than just the numbers, and because you've shown your intelligence before, I think you know that deep down.

You've got a hate on for Dez that is blinding you to the fact that the inability of Dak and Dez to connect was partly Dez's fault for not being able to create separation on deep balls, for not winning some jump balls, for some drops, etc., and partly Dak's for not putting the ball where it needed to be for the kind of receiver Dez is.

Butler isn't the type of receiver you ever double. He isn't the type of receiver you even put more than your second-best corner on or do much game-planning for. So it should be easier for him to get more open against the coverage he sees, which makes it easier to throw to him without having to put the ball on the nose.

No matter what you seem to have convinced yourself, Dez is viewed as the No. 1 receiver on this team, so the coverage respects that. He usually draws the No. 1 corner and some degree of double teams. He primarily wins deeper routes by being able to go up and get the ball, so if the ball is not placed where it needs to be, he cannot do this.

Both players are at fault for this. There are multiple ways to try to fix this.

We could cut Dez and try to get a different type of No. 1 receiver, but free agency has already passed us by so we would have to use our first-round pick on one ... and then we don't know how that player will turn out.

Dak and Dez could work hard to get on the same page, especially on the deep balls. Now, the question with that is whether Dak's deep-ball accuracy is good enough to put the ball where Dez has a shot at it because it has to be within a certain vicinity.

Third, we could get a better second receiver to draw double coverage away from Bryant. However, we would still have the issue of Dez not being the type of receiver that runs away from defenders deep. That's not his game.

Fourth, we could use Dez a whole lot more on shorter patterns, slants, outs, digs, etc. This to me seems like the most reasonable solution, especially if we can get a receiver with the ability to get deep and draw off any doubles on Dez. Let Dez work over the middle of the field and let someone else take the top off the defense. That doesn't mean we don't take deep shots with Dez, but it shouldn't happen near as often as it does.

 

[xwalker]

I assume DP is drops, the NFL has Dez with 5 drops if I am reading the info the OP's stats has Dez with a higher drop rate?

He is using the drop numbers that you will generally see quoted by the media.

There are multiple sources for drops and they're not all the same.

The ones you are referencing are very conservative on what they call a drop. Those numbers will be lower for all WRs.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Funny, I just rematched the Raiders game two days ago. I'll get the time stamp, but there's a play where Dez is running a 12-14 yard deep crossing route and has his man beat by 3-4 yards and nothing but open field in front of him. Dak tries to hit him but completely sails the ball over him. Missed opportunity.

 

[gimmesix]

It's not about Dez vs Butler.

Butler just illustrates that Dak is accurate on deep throws.

No, it really doesn't. I remember one throw in particular to Butler where Dak was on the run and chunked it up. Butler was essentially able to wait on it and catch it while the defense arrived late because he was practically uncovered up to that point.

If that had been a throw to Dez followed all over the field by a No. 1 corner, it would most likely have needed to be on time and on the money, although there were times when Dez beat the coverage but the ball didn't go his way. Coverage makes a big difference in deep-ball accuracy.

Without going through every throw, it's impossible to draw conclusions on deep-ball accuracy just looking at these numbers. There are multiple factors.

 

[gimmesix]

Funny, I just rematched the Raiders game two days ago. I'll get the time stamp, but there's a play where Dez is running a 12-14 yard deep crossing route and has his man beat by 3-4 yards and nothing but open field in front of him. Dak tries to hit him but completely sails the ball over him. Missed opportunity.

And again, this goes both ways. There are passes Dak threw that should have been caught or probably were off because of a poor route or pressure. It's a combination of factors and an accurate picture isn't painted if we don't weight them all.

Even what I'm saying is an oversimplification because there are things the defense do that affect the routes and what the quarterback is supposed to be seeing. If they aren't on the same page, it can be hard to tell exactly whose fault it is.

 

[jrumann59]

He is using the drop numbers that you will generally see quoted by the media.

There are multiple sources for drops and they're not all the same.

The ones you are referencing are very conservative on what they call a drop. Those numbers will be lower for all WRs.

I usually look at the numbers NFL.com uses

 

[Dre11]

The stats indicate that the QB is not the problem.

No they don’t.

 

[Dre11]

He did not drop passes at a higher rate.

This is about the QB having a great completion percentage to a scrub backup WR.

Dez was worse than a scrub with the same QB.

Stats matter. You wish they didn't because it does not fit your agenda.

Stop and look at your post. You should be embarrassed.

Lol you said just the other day in debate that they didn’t...lol
I should be embarrassed, you should be.
Butler dropped 3 passes in only 23 targets compared to Dez’s 6 in 132 targets..lol
You can’t win here.

 

[xwalker]

There are factors you are ignoring here that cannot be diagnosed without looking at more than just the numbers, and because you've shown your intelligence before, I think you know that deep down.

You've got a hate on for Dez that is blinding you to the fact that the inability of Dak and Dez to connect was partly Dez's fault for not being able to create separation on deep balls, for not winning some jump balls, for some drops, etc., and partly Dak's for not putting the ball where it needed to be for the kind of receiver Dez is.

Butler isn't the type of receiver you ever double. He isn't the type of receiver you even put more than your second-best corner on or do much game-planning for. So it should be easier for him to get more open against the coverage he sees, which makes it easier to throw to him without having to put the ball on the nose.

No matter what you seem to have convinced yourself, Dez is viewed as the No. 1 receiver on this team, so the coverage respects that. He usually draws the No. 1 corner and some degree of double teams. He primarily wins deeper routes by being able to go up and get the ball, so if the ball is not placed where it needs to be, he cannot do this.

Both players are at fault for this. There are multiple ways to try to fix this.

We could cut Dez and try to get a different type of No. 1 receiver, but free agency has already passed us by so we would have to use our first-round pick on one ... and then we don't know how that player will turn out.

Dak and Dez could work hard to get on the same page, especially on the deep balls. Now, the question with that is whether Dak's deep-ball accuracy is good enough to put the ball where Dez has a shot at it because it has to be within a certain vicinity.

Third, we could get a better second receiver to draw double coverage away from Bryant. However, we would still have the issue of Dez not being the type of receiver that runs away from defenders deep. That's not his game.

Fourth, we could use Dez a whole lot more on shorter patterns, slants, outs, digs, etc. This to me seems like the most reasonable solution, especially if we can get a receiver with the ability to get deep and draw off any doubles on Dez. Let Dez work over the middle of the field and let someone else take the top off the defense. That doesn't mean we don't take deep shots with Dez, but it shouldn't happen near as often as it does.

I spend more time watching game footage than looking at stats. That includes both All-22 and broadcast footage.

Defenses didn't really double Dez very often. I mean true double coverage, not zone coverage.

Many defenses quit having their #1 CB follow Dez. Many just played Right/Left.

It was sad to see plays where Beasley drew true double coverage and TWill or Butler were covered by a #1 CB.

The reason I used Butler for comparison is because people claimed Dez had a low catch % because he ran so many deep routes and that Dak couldn't hit WRs on deep routes.

I agree there was no point attempting so many deep passes to Dez.

A big issue is that they basically quit attempting to have Dez run option routes. We saw many times where Dez and Romo were not on the same page in regards to options routes but then we would see Romo explaining to Dez what he should have done. We would also see Romo coaching up Dez pre-snap.

I'm sure they figured Dak had enough to think about and couldn't coach up Dez and do his own job.

There is a long trail of indicators that point to Dez not being a good route runner. Patrick Peterson laughed about it years ago and last season multiple ex-players/coaches commented about it.

A WR that averages 16M per should not require perfect ball placement and he should not drop a large number of passes that hit his hands.

The problem with more slants and mid-field routes is that mistakes on route running are more likely to result in INTs.

It's coming out now that the Cowboys planned to cut Dez if they signed Watkins.

They are unlikely to go to the Super Bowl with the current receiving options on the roster. They didn't get worse in 2016 when Dez missed 3 games. They might as well cut him and let him pick his QB. They can save that money and use it on a free agent next year. This year they can draft a WR or multiple like they did at CB last year.