PFF: Dez has seen a reduction in catchable targets

[GreenMean69]

Dez haters like to ignore that his production dropped at the same time Tony disappeared . yes 2014 when Dez was last Dez .... same time Tony played meaningful football. Same time Dez supporters ignore that Dez and Dak just dont make a good match ..... Its Daks team now , you surround your QB to best suite his strengths.

 

[Whyjerry]

And after his Cowboys career no other Cowboys WR has ever caught more TD passes. Crazy

Passing driven league my friend. I bet you think Romo was better than Aikman too.

 

[percyhoward]

You guys want to discount the metric because it doesn't/can't cover all the variables. The metric is applied the same way, flawed as it may be, and shows a 10% deviation. That's a huge amount and is outside the range for margin of error so there's definitely something different happening.

There's actually about a 5% drop from 2012-14 (Romo in his prime) to 2015-17 (Prescott, Cassel, Romo).

They picked three of the WR with the highest catch rates to compare to Dez, and included 2015, when we had mostly garbage at QB. If you think about it, "catchable target rate" is just QB completion percentage allowing for drops. 62% is the league average completion rate, so the league average "catchable" rate would be somewhere around 66-67%. Higher for RB and most TE, lower for WR -- especially outside WR.

From 2015 through the 4th start of Dak's career, Dez's "catchable" rate was a terrible 53.0%. In the 25 games after that, it was 64.5%.

In 2017, the average of the top 10 targeted non-slot WR was 63.6%.

 

[Aviano90]

There's actually about a 5% drop from 2012-14 (Romo in his prime) to 2015-17 (Prescott, Cassel, Romo).

They picked three of the WR with the highest catch rates to compare to Dez, and included 2015, when we had mostly garbage at QB. If you think about it, "catchable target rate" is just QB completion percentage allowing for drops. 62% is the league average completion rate, so the league average "catchable" rate would be somewhere around 66-67%. Higher for RB and most TE, lower for WR -- especially outside WR.

From 2015 through the 4th start of Dak's career, Dez's "catchable" rate was a terrible 53.0%. In the 25 games after that, it was 64.5%.

In 2017, the average of the top 10 targeted non-slot WR was 63.6%.

Are there any stats that show targets that were passes defended (I think Sherman had 4 against Dez in 2015 because he was on him like stink on stunk) and intentional throw aways that Dez gets a target on which would be considered "uncatchable"?

 

[rkell87]

There's actually about a 5% drop from 2012-14 (Romo in his prime) to 2015-17 (Prescott, Cassel, Romo).

They picked three of the WR with the highest catch rates to compare to Dez, and included 2015, when we had mostly garbage at QB. If you think about it, "catchable target rate" is just QB completion percentage allowing for drops. 62% is the league average completion rate, so the league average "catchable" rate would be somewhere around 66-67%. Higher for RB and most TE, lower for WR -- especially outside WR.

From 2015 through the 4th start of Dak's career, Dez's "catchable" rate was a terrible 53.0%. In the 25 games after that, it was 64.5%.

In 2017, the average of the top 10 targeted non-slot WR was 63.6%.

So what you are saying is Dez went from an elite catchable ball rate, to a garbage rate in 2015, to an average rate with Dak correct?

Or put another way Dez produced at an elite level when an elite QB threw him the ball, produced at a trash rate with garbage QBs, and produced at an average level with an average QB.

Sounds about right to me.

 

[Aviano90]

So what you are saying is Dez went from an elite catchable ball rate, to a garbage rate in 2015, to an average rate with Dak correct?

Or put another way Dez produced at an elite level when an elite QB threw him the ball, produced at a trash rate with garbage QBs, and produced at an average level with an average QB.

Sounds about right to me.

Translation, the QB makes Dez.

 

[percyhoward]

So what you are saying is Dez went from an elite catchable ball rate, to a garbage rate in 2015, to an average rate with Dak correct?

Prescott-to-Bryant was a little above average, and the 10% deviation you mentioned is misleading.

 

[rkell87]

Translation, the QB makes Dez.

Very few WRs make QBs. Everyone thought Randy Moss was trash in Oakland.

 

[Lutonio]

Other posters are correct on that the receiver's play also factors into whether or not a pass is catchable. Steve Smith has said Dez runs three routes.

Dez lost Romo, got injured, and got older all the same time. I said to myself at the time of his injuries stacking up that we wouldn't see the same player again. It's almost like Hakeem Nicks.

Let's not forget he was something like top 3 in drops last year.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So a 12 million dollar WR needs a pro bowl QB to get him good “catchable” balls whatever that means

We don’t have one anymore so why did we have an expensive Ferrari if we couldn’t use him correctly?

Nice strawman. You going to dress him up and such?

 

[rkell87]

Prescott-to-Bryant was a little above average, and the 10% deviation you mentioned is misleading.

You said league average catchable rate would be 66-67% then said Dak to Dez was 63 and 64%. By your own math that's slightly below average.

 

[percyhoward]

Are there any stats that show targets that were passes defended (I think Sherman had 4 against Dez in 2015 because he was on him like stink on stunk) and intentional throw aways that Dez gets a target on which would be considered "uncatchable"?

Any PBU go as uncatchable, and any "throw away" close enough Dez goes as an uncatchable Dez target too. The only way it wouldn't is if there was no discernible target.

 

[percyhoward]

You said league average catchable rate would be 66-67% then said Dak to Dez was 63 and 64%. By your own math that's slightly below average.

Some RB have catchable rates well into the 80s that skew that number though.

Go back and read the last line about non-slot WR in 2017.

 

[TheCount]

It matters if the agenda is to make it look like the QB is the reason for the drop in catchable balls.

Why would PFF have pro-Dez agenda?

And again, it's a data point, whether they have an agenda is irrelevant as long as the methodology is consistent.

If they say a catch only counts if the happens under a full moon, it's still a data point using the same measuring stick for all receivers. If you take that one data point and decide it's the entire story, then that's on you.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Tony and Dez did not click early either. Tony comes from the gunslinger, let's draw it up in the sand mold which fits in with Dez' inconsistent ways. Tony was not relying on him running routes correctly and being where he was supposed to be, Dak did. That is why Stephen was saying Dak was like Troy in that regard, and I guarantee Aikman would have killed Dez, or just never thrown to him.

Dak's ball placement particularly downfield is unlikely to improve. Dak is nowhere near as accurate as Romo.

 

[4lifecowboy]

Translation, the QB makes Dez.

What a silly thing to say. The same car driven by two different drivers, does change the capability of the car. What you probably meant to say was QB A utilized the WR's abilities better than QB B.

 

[Aviano90]

What a silly thing to say. The same car driven by two different drivers, does change the capability of the car. What you probably meant to say was QB A utilized the WR's abilities better than QB B.

However you want to characterize it is fine with me.

 

[Aven8]

Heard on JJT today in stats don't lie segment, Dez had 21 catches of 30 or more yards in 2014. In the 3 years since, just 21.

Blame it Romo being gone, Dak, the coaches. Regardless, they don't lie.

 

[JW82]

Lol. Didnt pff just declare dak the most accurate qb?

 

[Proof]

Also does not take into account receivers running the wrong route, or the wrong depth on a route, or reading the coverage differently on an option route which leads to uncatchable balls.

Zzzzzzzz.