Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

[HungryLion]

it is because accuracy doesn't tend to improve much from college. If they were accurate in college and then had a down year like the ones you are describing that is not the same thing.

How does that apply to Dak’s 66% and 61% completion percentages in college?

 

[Diehardblues]

Really a 35 year old tight end, a receiver no one wants, a rb who missed 6 games, along with some of the worst o line play in history. O and a defense that couldn't get us a win with our offense putting up 30 points. Delusional

A HOF TE who was still middle of the pack in production , a talented Pro Bowl WR no one wants to pay elite money to, 3 Pro Bowl OL and a top RB who led them to 5-3 record. Right. Delusional ., lol..

And we had several games we couldn’t put up 10 points. Lol ., who’s delusional. Maybe put the Hen down.

Our defense was much improved . Finished 8th ranked.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

How does that apply to Dak’s 66% and 61% completion percentages in college?

I never said it did. You chose QBs who had 1 down year -not their rookie seasons either- in their first several years and acted like that meant accuracy could be improved. In reality they just had a down year which can have many different causes.

Fact is that if you are inaccurate in college you are very unlikely to be accurate in the pros. Not to say it is impossible but simply improbable. Same with pocket presence.

 

[HungryLion]

I never said it did. You chose QBs who had 1 down year -not their rookie seasons either- in their first several years and acted like that meant accuracy could be improved. In reality they just had a down year which can have many different causes.

Fact is that if you are inaccurate in college you are very unlikely to be accurate in the pros. Not to say it is impossible but simply improbable. Same with pocket presence.

Actually that’s not correct and you’re lying. A bunch of the QB’s I listed had several years of completion percentage in the low 60’s during their first few years in the NFL. And then their completion percentage raised over time into the mid 60’s.

So saying I listed QB’s who had “one down year” is false.

 

[G2]

The bolded is false, if there is enough pressure Dak panics for the rest of the game.

Lets see some examples because he was cool as a cucumber for the most part.

 

[HungryLion]

I never said it did. You chose QBs who had 1 down year -not their rookie seasons either- in their first several years and acted like that meant accuracy could be improved. In reality they just had a down year which can have many different causes.

Fact is that if you are inaccurate in college you are very unlikely to be accurate in the pros. Not to say it is impossible but simply improbable. Same with pocket presence.

And I agree with your assessment that if they’re inaccurate in college, that they are unlikely to improve in the pros. I alluded to that in my post when I said that players who are very inaccurate, generally don’t become accurate over time. I was moreso inquiring about QB’s who start out with a solid completion percentage around 60-62% who make general improvement over time and experience into the mid 60’s. Like 64-65.

Which obviously aren’t huge jumps, but does show some slight improvement over time. Which is due to various reasons. Not just throwing accuracy but also ability to read defenses and audible in sure to better find open receivers.

The reason I brought those up specifically is because Of where Dak’s completion percentage has been his first two years. While his accuracy is oft criticized, and he does have some issues he needs to work through. It shows some general overall improvement is possible.

 

[JoeKing]

First of all, I don't like the premise of the thread. "Cowboy vs Cowboys" is bad form IMO. Second, we are talking about someone with a lengthy career vs a guy that will be in only his third season once we get going again. How fair is this comparison going to be? If we just compare Romo's firts two seasons to Dak's... Dak wins hands down because Romo did not play. Dak's career beyond season two is yet to be recorded so you can not fairly compare this players.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Actually that’s not correct and you’re lying. A bunch of the QB’s I listed had several years of completion percentage in the low 60’s during their first few years in the NFL. And then their completion percentage raised over time into the mid 60’s.

So saying I listed QB’s who had “one down year” is false.

The first 3 on your list I looked at fit the bill.

And someone does not understand the difference between a lie and a mistake. Someone also doesn't understand the difference between data and anecdotes.

 

[G2]

He's just terrible in the pocket, pure and simple. Apparently we're about to see much more of the college RPO offense he ran at miss state.

He's not terrible in the pocket, what are you even watching? Your hatred has been well illustrated. If he's under pressure he struggles. Just like all QBs.

 

[G2]

First of all, I don't like the premise of the thread. "Cowboy vs Cowboys" is bad form IMO. Second, we are talking about someone with a lengthy career vs a guy that will be in only his third season once we get going again. How fair is this comparison going to be? If we just compare Romo's firts two seasons to Dak's... Dak wins hands down because Romo did not play. Dak's career beyond season two is yet to be recorded so you can not fairly compare this players.

Even Romo's first two starting seasons weren't as good.

 

[JoeKing]

Even Romo's first two starting seasons weren't as good.

The Romo lovers are only interested in rubbing Romo's best years in the face of the Dak supporters. It's a lop-sided discussion that should not be entertained.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

62.9% isn't a bad percentage, especially for a young guy. The NFL record for his career is Brees, which is 66%. So Dak, even using his "worst" year (out of only 2, statistically that's not enough data to make any real conclusion) is only about 5% worse.

Of course raw stats can be misleading, a quarterback can have great regular season ratings but if he falters in the playoffs, his overalll stat is great, but if you count playoff and SB wins as the standard, then he's not that good.

Let's give Dak another year or two before we throw him on the trash heap...

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

62.9% isn't a bad percentage, especially for a young guy. The NFL record for his career is Brees, which is 66%. So Dak, even using his "worst" year (out of only 2, statistically that's not enough data to make any real conclusion) is only about 5% worse.

Of course raw stats can be misleading, a quarterback can have great regular season ratings but if he falters in the playoffs, his overalll stat is great, but if you count playoff and SB wins as the standard, then he's not that good.

Let's give Dak another year or two before we throw him on the trash heap...

That is why Dak gets a 3rd season (and i agree he should) averages will hold up for 2 season if one season was good and one season was bad, but they won't after a 3rd season, the trend (either up or down) will start to show. We as fans and the Cowboys organization will know exactly what we have in Dak after this season, 48 games started in the NFL is enough to see who you have and it is enough for a player to show who he is

 

[zrinkill]

The bolded is false, if there is enough pressure Dak panics for the rest of the game.

Bull

 

[punchnjudy]

Actually that’s not correct and you’re lying. A bunch of the QB’s I listed had several years of completion percentage in the low 60’s during their first few years in the NFL. And then their completion percentage raised over time into the mid 60’s.

So saying I listed QB’s who had “one down year” is false.

Some of that is just learning what throws they can make and becoming more risk averse with experience. Completion percentage doesn't measure ball placement. Weeden could have a high completion percentage if he never attempted a pass requiring the touch to place it over the top of a defender downfield. In fact, that's pretty much what he started doing after he came here.

To show improvement in accuracy with completion percentage, you have to control for pass selection. Otherwise, it's meaningless. Only real way to do it is to chart every pass like Fahey does. If a guy completed back shoulder fades at X percent, and then he jumped to X+10, then he probably became more accurate at that throw. But just saying his overall completion percentage rose doesn't show anything by itself. A QB could have just stopped attempting passes he finds difficult as much, and an experienced vet would probably have a good feel for his limitations.

 

[HungryLion]

The first 3 on your list I looked at fit the bill.

And someone does not understand the difference between a lie and a mistake. Someone also doesn't understand the difference between data and anecdotes.

One cannot know the difference between a lie and a mistake, unless the person who makes the false claim, then corrects themselves and admits they were mistaken.

I also do understand the difference between data and anecdotes. I never claimed to make hard conclusions based on the numbers I looked at. I openly admitted to just browsing the numbers and was making a hypothesis based on just those numbers. Which is why I asked Adam if he had anymore data on the topic they either supported or refuted that hypothesis.

Your posts also didn’t include any data that would either support or refute your claims, which would also make your claims just anecdotal.

 

[HungryLion]

Some of that is just learning what throws they can make and becoming more risk averse with experience. Completion percentage doesn't measure ball placement. Weeden could have a high completion percentage if he never attempted a pass requiring the touch to place it over the top of a defender downfield. In fact, that's pretty much what he started doing after he came here.

To show improvement in accuracy with completion percentage, you have to control for pass selection. Otherwise, it's meaningless. Only real way to do it is to chart every pass like Fahey does. If a guy completed back shoulder fades at X percent, and then he jumped to X+10, then he probably became more accurate at that throw. But just saying his overall completion percentage rose doesn't show anything by itself. A QB could have just stopped attempting passes he finds difficult as much, and an experienced vet would probably have a good feel for his limitations.

I agree 100%. I admitted as much in my post. It’s why I was asking Adam if he has anymore data on accuracy improvement over the course of QB’s careers.

 

[HungryLion]

The first 3 on your list I looked at fit the bill.

And someone does not understand the difference between a lie and a mistake. Someone also doesn't understand the difference between data and anecdotes.

The first three I listed did not fit the bill of just “one down year” as you claimed.

Peyton Manning’s completion percentages:
57%
62%
62%
62%

Then a jump to 66-67% where he stayed for many years.

Matt stafford:
53%
59%
63%
59%
58%

Etc.

But now the last 3 years his completion percentage has increased to 65% or above for the past 3 season.

Matt Ryan:

61%
58%
62%
61%
68%
67%
66%

Another QB whose % jumped several points after his 4th year in the league.... again like I said. And In no way does he fall under the category of “one down year”

All of the first 3 QB’s I listed saw a jump of 3-4% points in their completion percentages after several years in the league.

 

[Doomsday101]

A HOF TE who was still middle of the pack in production , a talented Pro Bowl WR no one wants to pay elite money to, 3 Pro Bowl OL and a top RB who led them to 5-3 record. Right. Delusional ., lol..

And we had several games we couldn’t put up 10 points. Lol ., who’s delusional. Maybe put the Hen down.

Our defense was much improved . Finished 8th ranked.

Defense was 8th in yards allowed where the defense must make improvements is turnovers and 3rd down stops where we ranked towards the bottom.

 

[kskboys]

And I agree with your assessment that if they’re inaccurate in college, that they are unlikely to improve in the pros. I alluded to that in my post when I said that players who are very inaccurate, generally don’t become accurate over time. I was moreso inquiring about QB’s who start out with a solid completion percentage around 60-62% who make general improvement over time and experience into the mid 60’s. Like 64-65.

Which obviously aren’t huge jumps, but does show some slight improvement over time. Which is due to various reasons. Not just throwing accuracy but also ability to read defenses and audible in sure to better find open receivers.

The reason I brought those up specifically is because Of where Dak’s completion percentage has been his first two years. While his accuracy is oft criticized, and he does have some issues he needs to work through. It shows some general overall improvement is possible.

People keep sticking their heads in the sand on logical analyses. Dak's accuracy wains when his footwork goes south. He is accurate enough when his mechanics are good.

It's not that Dak needs to learn accuracy, it's that he needs to stop doing the things that make his accuracy go south. Huge difference between having accuracy issues and simply being inaccurate. Dak is the former.