Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

[Diehardblues]

It all comes down to winning despite his form or accuracy.Without his winning wave his Rookie season he’d be back on the bench where he probably should be. 11 straight wins and Rookie of the year apparently has provided him a pass for life with many fans?

Imagine a QB like a Wentz or Goff behind this OL and running game. Shoot, there were 5 more QB drafted this year in 1st round that’d prob beat out Dak. And we’d be a much stronger team with a QB like Dak on the bench.

But the winning wave sold us we’d found our heir apparent and now when the winning slowed we’re making every excuse and over analyzing . Dak is what he is. Just win and it will silence the critics .

There have been many great winning QB in NFL history with worse form in the pocket, etc but they were leaders elevating their team to victory.

Ultimately that is the barometer that matters. And that doesn’t have to equate into winning Super Bowls but being serious contenders making some championship or SB appearances.

Great QB’s need solid teams surrounding to win it all but not to at least reach the plateau.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

His zip is nowhere near Romo's, and I only thought Romo was above average, not elite, in that category. His specialty was accuracy and touch.

Dak has to wind up for velocity, and it makes his throws wobbly and inaccurate. When he rolls out, he can throw his body into it, and coverage breaks down so he can throw it up for wide open receivers to go get.

Dak has so many flaws only a miracle can turn him into a franchise QB.

Poor footwork.
Poor Accuracy.
Poor Pocket awr.
Poor downfield vision.
Poor pass timing(doesn't anticipate and lead the WR)
Poor Def reads.
Poor arm strength(Has to wind up to throw the long one)
Poor Decision making back there.
Poor Leadership(throws his wr under the bus to save his A@@)
Poor maturity as when sacked he becomes "Panic Dak" and turnovers are numerous!

Now if you think with all the above flaws Dak will be turned into a Franchise QB one day you better call Dr. Frankenstein.....

 

[Swagger]

Dak has so many flaws only a miracle can turn him into a franchise QB.

Poor footwork.
Poor Accuracy.
Poor Pocket awr.
Poor downfield vision.
Poor pass timing(doesn't anticipate and lead the WR)
Poor Def reads.
Poor arm strength(Has to wind up to throw the long one)
Poor Decision making back there.
Poor Leadership(throws his wr under the bus to save his A@@)
Poor maturity as when sacked he becomes "Panic Dak" and turnovers are numerous!

Now if you think with all the above flaws Dak will be turned into a Franchise QB one day you better call Dr. Frankenstein.....

Apart from that he's fine

I completely agree.

He is a poor QB but the defense could be decent next season and the running game should be a lot better so the team will win a good number of games despite Prescott.

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Late-career Romo was a Jedi compared to the #9 who got his first start. I believe Dak is comparable to Romo in his salad days as the young starter - and Romo was in his fourth season when that occurred.

Patience. Visible progress. Realistic expectations. Give Dak a fair opportunity to develop. It's difficult for the typical fan.

Tony Romo starts in his 1st 3 NFL seasons....0
Dak Prescott starts in his 1st 2 NFL seasons..32

I agree a QB needs time to develop but after this season (assuming he stays healthy) Dak will have started 48 games in the NFL, that is plenty of time for Dak to devleop as a QB and for fans to decide who they have as a QB. After this season Dak is going to be who he will be as a QB in the NFL

 

[charron]

Tony Romo starts in his 1st 3 NFL seasons....0
Dak Prescott starts in his 1st 2 NFL seasons..32

I agree a QB needs time to develop but after this season (assuming he stays healthy) Dak will have started 48 games in the NFL, that is plenty of time for Dak to devleop as a QB and for fans to decide who they have as a QB. After this season Dak is going to be who he will be as a QB in the NFL

Ok that crap of comparing thrir 1st 3 years is pointless.

Dak did not earn a starting spot. Infsct he didnt even earn a backup role. Without injuries to romo and moore, dak would be the 3rd qb on this team or practice squad. His performance in ota's and practice was poor. Of course most new qb's dont have the best offensive line, best rb, hof TE, and a very respected wr group.

 

[AdamJT13]

Wish we had data for Romo.

This isn't the same source, so the data might not be calculated the same way, but Football Outsiders has Romo's average air yards for each season from 2006 to 2015 in a table on this page --

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/quarterbacks-and-progression-air-yards

TONY ROMO
2006 = 10.79
2007 = 9.01
2008 = 9.20
2009 = 7.91
2010 = 7.51
2011 = 7.75
2012 = 8.82
2013 = 7.97
2014 = 9.18
2015 = 7.17
AVERAGE (2006 to 2015) = 8.53


(Dak's numbers from the NextGen Stats site were 9.0 for 2016 and 8.7 for 2017.)

Those two sources might or might not compile the data the same way, so we don't know whether the comparison between the two quarterbacks is accurate. But it does show that Romo threw deeper early in his career than he did later in his career, for the most part -- either by choice or because our personnel and/or offensive philosophy had changed.

 

[AdamJT13]

Their signature stats say that he is mediocre.

By most purely statistical measurements, Dak's season last year was mediocre -- and that's what Football Outsider's "signature stats" are. Multiple advanced analyses (ie., breakdowns, film reviews, etc.) says there are reasons for that which are unrelated to Dak's performance.

Their deep ball project includes 15-20 yard passes which is asinine as it is obviously intermediate.

The shortest range is actually 16-19 yards. But that's how the NFL itself determines a "deep" pass in its play-by-play -- every pass is either "short left," "short middle," "short right," "deep left," "deep middle" or "deep right." There is no "intermediate" range in the NFL play-by-play. And the cutoff point is 16 yards. Anything 16 yards or more past the line of scrimmage is "deep." Anything 15 yards downfield or less is "short."

So the "deep ball project" includes every pass listed as a "deep" pass in the NFL play-by-play.

It also does not consider how Dak has to alter his mechanics on longer throws.

It doesn't grade mechanics on any throws. Only accuracy.

And you pick and choose PFF's subjective calls. On the one hand, what is catchable, what is a drop, etc that I was pointing out to you in the beginning is fine. Their grades are not although they used the accuracy metric that you initially supported and thought was used on their deep ball stats. Obvious bias is obvious.

There's a difference between a statistic and a grade -- even subjective statistics. And their quarterback grades don't have anything to do with their accuracy metric or any other stat. Their player grades are simply based on the grade they give each player on each play (anywhere from minus-2 to plus-2).

 

[Zman5]

How did Dak threw as many long ball as Romo did turn into Dak is better than Romo?

I bet if I start a thread Dak looks fatter than Romo, it would get 33 pages of responses like this thread.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

By most purely statistical measurements, Dak's season last year was mediocre -- and that's what Football Outsider's "signature stats" are. Multiple advanced analyses (ie., breakdowns, film reviews, etc.) says there are reasons for that which are unrelated to Dak's performance.



The shortest range is actually 16-19 yards. But that's how the NFL itself determines a "deep" pass in its play-by-play -- every pass is either "short left," "short middle," "short right," "deep left," "deep middle" or "deep right." There is no "intermediate" range in the NFL play-by-play. And the cutoff point is 16 yards. Anything 16 yards or more past the line of scrimmage is "deep." Anything 15 yards downfield or less is "short."

So the "deep ball project" includes every pass listed as a "deep" pass in the NFL play-by-play.




It doesn't grade mechanics on any throws. Only accuracy.




There's a difference between a statistic and a grade -- even subjective statistics. And their quarterback grades don't have anything to do with their accuracy metric or any other stat. Their player grades are simply based on the grade they give each player on each play (anywhere from minus-2 to plus-2).

There are similarly film breakdowns that illustrate extensively his inability to consistently place throws as well as letting his mechanics go in the toilet. There are lowlight reels of him having his feet wide, short arming throws, backfooting throws, funky arm angles, etc while missing time and again.

And then in the cutoff there is no intermediate range. "Big plays" are 20+ yards and as I stated with Dak in particular he struggles past 20 yards because he has to wind up to uncork those throws making repeating the motion problematic. The point is not that the stat needs to grade mechanics but instead that it is obtuse to that limitation and fails to represent reality because of it. IOW it is a misleading statistic in evaluating Dak's ability to place longer throws.

And the grades are stats just like a psychological survey is a stat. Better than a survey though they expect real world phenomenon beyond liking or disliking something to merit a sample. For example to get a 3 you need to place the ball according to the accuracy stat you were championing before amongst other things like extending the play after pressure or the like.

So do you disagree that Dak alters his throwing motion when making longer throws?

Do you disagree that he is inconsistent in leveraging throws?

 

[AdamJT13]

There are similarly film breakdowns that illustrate extensively his inability to consistently place throws as well as letting his mechanics go in the toilet. There are lowlight reels of him having his feet wide, short arming throws, backfooting throws, funky arm angles, etc while missing time and again.

I'm not talking about highlight or lowlight reels. There are numerous examples of those types of videos being entirely misleading.

I'm talking about every single pass thrown by every quarterback in the NFL last season being watched, analyzed and evaluated, then translated into metrics that allow for comparison.

You could put together a video that shows Drew Brees "having his feet wide, short arming throws, backfooting throws, funky arm angles, etc while missing time and again" ... but that wouldn't make him anything less than the most accurate passer in the NFL last season. It just means that a handful of plays don't paint the entire picture, especially when there is no context of comparison.

Likewise, you could put together a highlight reel or lowlight reel for Dak to make people think whatever you want them to think. But without the context of having every pass analyzed and compared to every other pass thrown in the NFL, neither video is helpful in getting an accurate picture of Dak's actual performance.

"Big plays" are 20+ yards and as I stated with Dak in particular he struggles past 20 yards because he has to wind up to uncork those throws making repeating the motion problematic. The point is not that the stat needs to grade mechanics but instead that it is obtuse to that limitation and fails to represent reality because of it. IOW it is a misleading statistic in evaluating Dak's ability to place longer throws.

He ranked 10th in raw accuracy on all passes thrown 20 yards or more, including No. 1 on passes thrown 40 yards or more and No. 7 on passes thrown 35-39 yards.

So do you disagree that Dak alters his throwing motion when making longer throws?

Quarterbacks are supposed to alter their throwing motion when making longer throws.

Do you disagree that he is inconsistent in leveraging throws?

Not any more inconsistent than most other quarterbacks, especially second-year quarterbacks.

 

[HungryLion]

One of the thing I don’t understand, is some people making the argument that QB’s can’t get more accurate over time.

Which to me, isn’t true.

I know QB’s who are highly inaccurate don’t seem to
Improve to become a very accurate QB.

But I was glancing at statistics for some of the better QB’s in the league right now or recent history and MANY of them, seem to have made improvements on their accuracy by several % points. Even improvements by as much as 4-5 percentage points. A lot of them made these jumps in accuracy in their 3rd or 4th years.

Peyton Manning, matt stafford, matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, drew Brees, Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, etc etc.

Many of them have improved their completion percentage by at least several % points after 3-4 years in the league.

So that tells me that quarterbacks can and do get more accurate over time in the league.

@AdamJT13 I don’t know if you have access to any numbers that support or refute this.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not talking about highlight or lowlight reels. There are numerous examples of those types of videos being entirely misleading.

I'm talking about every single pass thrown by every quarterback in the NFL last season being watched, analyzed and evaluated, then translated into metrics that allow for comparison.

You could put together a video that shows Drew Brees "having his feet wide, short arming throws, backfooting throws, funky arm angles, etc while missing time and again" ... but that wouldn't make him anything less than the most accurate passer in the NFL last season. It just means that a handful of plays don't paint the entire picture, especially when there is no context of comparison.

Likewise, you could put together a highlight reel or lowlight reel for Dak to make people think whatever you want them to think. But without the context of having every pass analyzed and compared to every other pass thrown in the NFL, neither video is helpful in getting an accurate picture of Dak's actual performance.



He ranked 10th in raw accuracy on all passes thrown 20 yards or more, including No. 1 on passes thrown 40 yards or more and No. 7 on passes thrown 35-39 yards.




Quarterbacks are supposed to alter their throwing motion when making longer throws.




Not any more inconsistent than most other quarterbacks, especially second-year quarterbacks.

I'm not talking about highlight and low light reels either. I'm talking about samples of a hundred or more throws. And we have discussed the PFF, etc analysis.

And I love how you simply extend the arguments when 2 posts before I had refuted them. Again.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

One of the thing I don’t understand, is some people making the argument that QB’s can’t get more accurate over time.

Which to me, isn’t true.

I know QB’s who are highly inaccurate don’t seem to
Improve to become a very accurate QB.

But I was glancing at statistics for some of the better QB’s in the league right now or recent history and MANY of them, seem to have made improvements on their accuracy by several % points. Even improvements by as much as 4-5 percentage points. A lot of them made these jumps in accuracy in their 3rd or 4th years.

Peyton Manning, matt stafford, matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, drew Brees, Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, etc etc.

Many of them have improved their completion percentage by at least several % points after 3-4 years in the league.

So that tells me that quarterbacks can and do get more accurate over time in the league.

@AdamJT13 I don’t know if you have access to any numbers that support or refute this.

it is because accuracy doesn't tend to improve much from college. If they were accurate in college and then had a down year like the ones you are describing that is not the same thing.

 

[Hennessy_King]

It all comes down to winning despite his form or accuracy.Without his winning wave his Rookie season he’d be back on the bench where he probably should be. 11 straight wins and Rookie of the year apparently has provided him a pass for life with many fans?

Imagine a QB like a Wentz or Goff behind this OL and running game. Shoot, there were 5 more QB drafted this year in 1st round that’d prob beat out Dak. And we’d be a much stronger team with a QB like Dak on the bench.

But the winning wave sold us we’d found our heir apparent and now when the winning slowed we’re making every excuse and over analyzing . Dak is what he is. Just win and it will silence the critics .

There have been many great winning QB in NFL history with worse form in the pocket, etc but they were leaders elevating their team to victory.

Ultimately that is the barometer that matters. And that doesn’t have to equate into winning Super Bowls but being serious contenders making some championship or SB appearances.

Great QB’s need solid teams surrounding to win it all but not to at least reach the plateau.

Wait so you praise wentz who didn't even play for his team in the postseason? You are showing your Romo love here. The eagles had such a good team that they won with their backup QB. I would say wentz has way more talent surrounding him on both sides of the ball than Dak has.

 

[Diehardblues]

Wait so you praise wentz who didn't even play for his team in the postseason? You are showing your Romo love here. The eagles had such a good team that they won with their backup QB. I would say wentz has way more talent surrounding him on both sides of the ball than Dak has.

I was a Romo critic most of his career.

And you forget Wentz was on a MVP pace. And their backup QB was MVP in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles basically have 2 legit starting QB’s on their roster aided by a top 5 defense.

 

[Hennessy_King]

I was a Romo critic most of his career.

And you forget Wentz was on a MVP pace. And their backup QB was MVP in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles basically have 2 legit starting QB’s on their roster aided by a top 5 defense.

Wentz constantly worked a short field with his defense and the team never ran the ball inside the five and padded his td numbers. Other than TDs look at dak and Wentz stats through the first 8 weeks
Foles is not that good. They had a great run game and top oline play with real talent with receiving options.

 

[Diehardblues]

Wentz constantly worked a short field with his defense and the team never ran the ball inside the five and padded his td numbers. Other than TDs look at dak and Wentz stats through the first 8 weeks
Foles is not that good. They had a great run game and top oline play with real talent with receiving options.

Individual stats are misleading and only tell part of the story.I look at their body of work and how it impacted their teams.

I trust my eye judgement watching their effectiveness to lead their team to victory much how I judged Dak in his Rookie season when he looked more effective than Wentz even though I still thought Wentz had more potential as a prolific passer.

 

[Diehardblues]

Wentz constantly worked a short field with his defense and the team never ran the ball inside the five and padded his td numbers. Other than TDs look at dak and Wentz stats through the first 8 weeks
Foles is not that good. They had a great run game and top oline play with real talent with receiving options.

Eagles had a top 5 defense which carried them.

And I wouldn’t dismiss Foles. SB MVP was deserved. If he wasn’t still under contract and the concern over Wentz healthy return he would have been heavily pursued in Free Agency.

And our offense surrounding Dak last year more talented than Foles had.

 

[Cowpolk]

Here is a hint Romo retired so the only thing that matters is what Dak can do on deep passes

 

[Hennessy_King]

Eagles had a top 5 defense which carried them.

And I wouldn’t dismiss Foles. SB MVP was deserved. If he wasn’t still under contract and the concern over Wentz healthy return he would have been heavily pursued in Free Agency.

And our offense surrounding Dak last year more talented than Foles had.

Really a 35 year old tight end, a receiver no one wants, a rb who missed 6 games, along with some of the worst o line play in history. O and a defense that couldn't get us a win with our offense putting up 30 points. Delusional