Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

[Number1]

most of these comments are real right brain or left brain stuff ... the closest look you could get is Tony 2014 vs Dak 2016, not both seasons end vs Rodgers for the same reason - a mediocre pass rush - not our QBs

Dak has a monster mid range arm (15 - 30 yards), as did Tony, both can buy time with their feet, both can throw a target open, and have the confidence of their teammates. Neither are *great* deep passers. As Cowboy QBs go, neither have Don Meredith's or Danny's White's deep arm, both are better than Rodger or Troy.

Look at it like this

0 - 15:
advantage Tony

15 - 30:
both are first rate (bar none), slight advantage Dak

30+:
both are above average, but they ain't Randle Cunningham or Danny White who could hit a pylon consistently from mid field - the classic deep ball test.

BTW, there are 4 phases to that deep ball test: pocket, roll right, roll left, and run forward. Aikman has a rep as best ever at running forward and throwing a nice deep pass, rather hard to do, try is some time, it takes incredible core strength and coordination..

Dak doesn't panic or take the wild risks Tony often did early in his career as a starter, so he won't win as many games on his on, he won't lose as nearly as many either.

Bottom line, it would be hard to design a better QB than Dak for *this play action timing system*. He is a coach's dream. His detractors should keep that in mind.

Note, in 2016 and 2017, only Brees made the top 5 in QBR both seasons. Tough league.

 

[Gator88]

most of these comments are real right brain or left brain stuff ... the closest look you could get is Tony 2014 vs Dak 2016, not both seasons end vs Rodgers for the same reason - a mediocre pass rush - not our QBs

Dak has a monster mid range arm (15 - 30 yards), as did Tony, both can buy time with their feet, both can throw a target open, and have the confidence of their teammates. Neither are *great* deep passers. As Cowboy QBs go, neither have Don Meredith's or Danny's White's deep arm, both are better than Rodger or Troy.

Look at it like this

0 - 15:
advantage Tony

15 - 30:
both are first rate (bar none), slight advantage Dak

30+:
both are above average, but they ain't Randle Cunningham or Danny White who could hit a pylon consistently from mid field - the classic deep ball test.

BTW, there are 4 phases to that deep ball test: pocket, roll right, roll left, and run forward. Aikman has a rep as best ever at running forward and throwing a nice deep pass, rather hard to do, try is some time, it takes incredible core strength and coordination..

Dak doesn't panic or take the wild risks Tony often did early in his career as a starter, so he won't win as many games on his on, he won't lose as nearly as many either.

Bottom line, it would be hard to design a better QB than Dak for *this play action timing system*. He is a coach's dream. His detractors should keep that in mind.

Note, in 2016 and 2017, only Brees made the top 5 in QBR both seasons. Tough league.

The bolded is false, if there is enough pressure Dak panics for the rest of the game.

 

[zerofill]

The stats I provided are really basic math based upon simple counts and percentages to address a claim that has been continuously repeated by our fanbase the last 2 years....Dak does not throw deep and only dinks and dunks.

I gave both Dak and Romo’s % of total passes thrown downfield according the splits on ESPN. It is based on simple counts and averages...nothing complex. So, Dak either throws downfield or he doesn’t, like has been claimed over and over and over and over.

In Is like if I state New England and Dallas have 5 Super Bowls and someone needs to state # of SBs is misleading and NE is lucky because they got the tuck rule and played in a weak division in the parity era and they couldn’t have beaten the Cowboys of the 70’s and 90’s. Yeah, but they still have 5 and that isn’t misleading LOL

I find it rather amusIng the numbers seems to rub people the wrong way and they seem to need to be discredited in some way. It is probably because Romo was mentioned and people feel like it is a slight on Romo that Dak throws downfield at similar %’s as he did. Because the people doing the discrediting seem to have one goal in mind while doing it —-try to make the argument Romo is better than Dak.

I have no problem with stats... just to get an idea of how good a player might be. My problem is from the fact that I am a computer programmer. I have been for an ungodly number of years...
So I have a very hard time with stats, as far as comparing players, because of that.

There is no way I could accurately analyze data sets like this in the computer world. Because the fact is, the situations are different.
All you can do is write an algorithm that basically crunches numbers, but can't take in the variables required to make adjustments.

What I mean by this is simple...

Dak Prescott throws 30 passes in a game in 2016
Tony Romo throws 30 passes in a game in 2014

The stats are not comparable... too many variables.

The DB that was up against the receiver, the friggin temperature that day, the wind speed, was it raining, who was on the roster?

That sounds like nit picking right?

But think about it... how accurately can you compare players unless they play out the exact same situation, with the exact same variables?

You can't... it is all just crap...

Hopefully where I am coming from, makes sense with that.

It wasn't meant to be a knock on you, etc...

 

[Aviano90]

I have no problem with stats... just to get an idea of how good a player might be. My problem is from the fact that I am a computer programmer. I have been for an ungodly number of years...
So I have a very hard time with stats, as far as comparing players, because of that.

There is no way I could accurately analyze data sets like this in the computer world. Because the fact is, the situations are different.
All you can do is write an algorithm that basically crunches numbers, but can't take in the variables required to make adjustments.

What I mean by this is simple...

Dak Prescott throws 30 passes in a game in 2016
Tony Romo throws 30 passes in a game in 2014

The stats are not comparable... too many variables.

The DB that was up against the receiver, the friggin temperature that day, the wind speed, was it raining, who was on the roster?

That sounds like nit picking right?

But think about it... how accurately can you compare players unless they play out the exact same situation, with the exact same variables?

You can't... it is all just crap...

Hopefully where I am coming from, makes sense with that.

It wasn't meant to be a knock on you, etc...

Let’s take your example of each player throwing 30 passes.

Now if someone claims we don’t pass the ball with Dak, does the fact he throws the ball 30 times prove that he does, in fact, throw the ball?

That is essentially what I am doing. The claim is Dak doesn’t throw deep. I have simply shown he passes deep at about the same rate Romo did over his career. So he does throw deep.

I can understand people believe Dak should throw deep more often, but I can’t understand why they continue to say he only dinks and dunks.

 

[AdamJT13]

FO had him at 17th in both DYOA and DPOA last season.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Football Outsiders doesn't grade quarterbacks on accuracy. The accuracy article published on their site was from the Deep Ball Project, which ranked Dak fifth in raw accuracy and second in efficiency score (based on all passes 16 yards or more). It's completely unrelated to DYOA and DPOA, which are derived from play-by-play statistics.

And it is interesting that you bash PFF's grading when you linked us the method they used for grading QBs accuracy yesterday. And you trust their subjective calls on what is a drop and the like but you don't trust their grades.

I don't "trust" their subjective stats, but I recognize them as one of the sources for them. The more sources, the better -- as with any other subjective stats (passing accuracy, dropped passes, completions allowed for defensive backs, sacks allowed for offensive linemen, etc.). There is judgment involved in all of those, but at least it's usually binary.

I could care less about PFF's overall grades, for multiple reasons. If you want me to explain all of them, I will.

 

[AdamJT13]

I didn't have the numbers handy at the time. Though I had remembered generally where he was.

For accuracy:

Dak finished 19th last year and 22nd his rookie season.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2016/all#yards

Well, for accuracy, he could have tied for 17th last year. But both of those are out of many more than 32 qualifying quarterbacks. He was in the top half last year out of 41 quarterbacks. Not that IAY really means anything skill-wise when Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees ranked 38th and 39th out of 41.

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Let’s take your example of each player throwing 30 passes.

Now if someone claims we don’t pass the ball with Dak, does the fact he throws the ball 30 times prove that he does, in fact, throw the ball?

That is essentially what I am doing. The claim is Dak doesn’t throw deep. I have simply shown he passes deep at about the same rate Romo did over his career. So he does throw deep.

I can understand people believe Dak should throw deep more often, but I can’t understand why they continue to say he only dinks and dunks.

Earlier in this thread i posted numbers from Dak and Romo where i showed that Dak has thrown (to this point in his career) 29.7% of his passes 10 yards+ or farther down field and Romo in his career threw 33.2% of his passes 10 yards + or farther down field. So Romo threw approx 3.5% more of his passes downfield than Dak. Now 3.5% is not a big spread but in a football game it might tend to show up a bit more and leave the impression that Dak ony dinks and dunks. Also Dak didn't throw the ball as much downfield last year as he did in his rookie season, in his Rookie season he threw the ball 10+ yards 147 times out of 459 attempts (32%) and last season he threw the ball 10+ yards 136 times out of 490 attempts (27.2%) so i can easily see how fans based on last season see Dak as a dink and dunk passer. The problem doing this exercise is only having 2 years from Dak where one year was much worse than the other, so the average holds but you are not sure which QB you have. We should all know the answer to this after this season

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Here are some other QB's and their stats from last season (2017) as far as throwing the ball 10+ downfield


Brady 190 times out of 581 attempts.....32.7%
Rivers 194 times out of 575 attempts....33.7%
Stafford 173 times out of 565 attempts...30.6%
Brees 123 times out of 536 attempts....22.9% (see note at the bottom about him)
Big Ben 217 out of 561 attempts...38.6%
Matt Ryan 161 out of 529 attempts...30.4%
Cousins..154 out of 540 attempts...28.5%
Wilson..185 out of 553 attempts..33.4%
Goff....142 out of 447 attempts 30.9%
Wentz...160 out of 44 attempts..36.3%
Dak....136 out of490 attempts..27.2%


* It would seem Dak does throw the ball (at least as far as last year) downfield much less than other QB's do.
** I found Brees' number to be quite low so i went back and looked at his numbers from 2010-2016 and they were 35.1%, 33%, 32.3%, 33.7%, 29.1%, 28.3%, 23.7% and last year 22.9%. Drew Brees is now 39 years old and it would seem by those numbers that maybe he is not able to throw the ball downfield as much as he use too, there has been a steady decline the last 2-3 seasons

 

[kskboys]

Here are some other QB's and their stats from last season (2017) as far as throwing the ball 10+ downfield


Brady 190 times out of 581 attempts.....32.7%
Rivers 194 times out of 575 attempts....33.7%
Stafford 173 times out of 565 attempts...30.6%
Brees 123 times out of 536 attempts....22.9% (see note at the bottom about him)
Big Ben 217 out of 561 attempts...38.6%
Matt Ryan 161 out of 529 attempts...30.4%
Cousins..154 out of 540 attempts...28.5%
Wilson..185 out of 553 attempts..33.4%
Goff....142 out of 447 attempts 30.9%
Wentz...160 out of 44 attempts..36.3%
Dak....136 out of490 attempts..27.2%


* It would seem Dak does throw the ball (at least as far as last year) downfield much less than other QB's do.
** I found Brees' number to be quite low so i went back and looked at his numbers from 2010-2016 and they were 35.1%, 33%, 32.3%, 33.7%, 29.1%, 28.3%, 23.7% and last year 22.9%. Drew Brees is now 39 years old and it would seem by those numbers that maybe he is not able to throw the ball downfield as much as he use too, there has been a steady decline the last 2-3 seasons

It's simply people not understanding football. Downfield passes are low percentage passes no matter who is throwing them.

 

[kskboys]

Let’s take your example of each player throwing 30 passes.

Now if someone claims we don’t pass the ball with Dak, does the fact he throws the ball 30 times prove that he does, in fact, throw the ball?

That is essentially what I am doing. The claim is Dak doesn’t throw deep. I have simply shown he passes deep at about the same rate Romo did over his career. So he does throw deep.

I can understand people believe Dak should throw deep more often, but I can’t understand why they continue to say he only dinks and dunks.

Just one of those dumb ideas that got started and everyone started repeating it so they started believing it.

 

[Aviano90]

Here are some other QB's and their stats from last season (2017) as far as throwing the ball 10+ downfield


Brady 190 times out of 581 attempts.....32.7%
Rivers 194 times out of 575 attempts....33.7%
Stafford 173 times out of 565 attempts...30.6%
Brees 123 times out of 536 attempts....22.9% (see note at the bottom about him)
Big Ben 217 out of 561 attempts...38.6%
Matt Ryan 161 out of 529 attempts...30.4%
Cousins..154 out of 540 attempts...28.5%
Wilson..185 out of 553 attempts..33.4%
Goff....142 out of 447 attempts 30.9%
Wentz...160 out of 44 attempts..36.3%
Dak....136 out of490 attempts..27.2%


* It would seem Dak does throw the ball (at least as far as last year) downfield much less than other QB's do.
** I found Brees' number to be quite low so i went back and looked at his numbers from 2010-2016 and they were 35.1%, 33%, 32.3%, 33.7%, 29.1%, 28.3%, 23.7% and last year 22.9%. Drew Brees is now 39 years old and it would seem by those numbers that maybe he is not able to throw the ball downfield as much as he use too, there has been a steady decline the last 2-3 seasons

So is anything over 10 yards now considered deep?

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

It's simply people not understanding football. Downfield passes are low percentage passes no matter who is throwing them.

lets go with that their are 4 categories for downfiled passing 11-20 yards, 21-30, 31-40 and 40+. Nobody in tthe NFL completes a high percentage of passes in the last 2 categories (31-40 and 40+) in the other 2 categories 11-20 and 21-30 top QB's in the NFL complete 60-65% in the 11-10 yard category and 40-45% in the 21-30 category.

in 2016 Dak completed 61.6% in the 11-20 and 41.4% in the 21-30 yard categories
in 2017 Dak completed 44.9% in the 11-20 and 31.4% in the 21-30 yard categories...so there was a dropoff. Good QB's make their money passing in these 2 categories

 

[erod]

Just one of those dumb ideas that got started and everyone started repeating it so they started believing it.

Dak throws downfield when he's out of the pocket. He's very good at extending plays with rollouts, and that's when receivers come wide open.

But he doesn't like tight windows from the pocket because he knows he's inaccurate from there.

As far as "dinks and dunks", it's not just swing passes. He throws underneath in front of the sticks. When the defense sets up deep on 3rd and 9 at the sticks, he avoids throwing beyond the first down marker and opts too much for the safety valve throw.

That's normal for a young QB.

My concern is that he just doesn't have the accuracy necessary to overcome this. His mechanics are a mess, and his arm is average at best.

However, the guy is going to do everything he can to try to overcome it. That's what he's about. First rate character and work ethic.

I also think it benefits him GREATLY to have Dez out of here. No more needy divas.

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

So is anything over 10 yards now considered deep?

Yes and it always was because the 1st category is 11-20 yards. Top QB's make their money in the NFL passing in the 1st 2 categories 11-20 and 21-30. NO QB in the NFL has many attempts in the last 2 categories and no QB in the NFL complets a high percentge of those passes

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Dak throws downfield when he's out of the pocket. He's very good at extending plays with rollouts, and that's when receivers come wide open.

But he doesn't like tight windows from the pocket because he knows he's inaccurate from there.

As far as "dinks and dunks", it's not just swing passes. He throws underneath in front of the sticks. When the defense sets up deep on 3rd and 9 st the sticks, he avoids throwing beyond the first down marker and opts too much for the safety valve throw.

That's normal for a young QB.

My concern is that he just doesn't have the accuracy necessary to overcome this. His mechanics are a mess, and his arm is average at best.

However, the guy is going to do everything he can to try to overcome it. That's what he's about. First rate character and work ethic.

I also think it benefits him GREATLY to have Dez out of here. No more needy divas.

Totally agree with the bolded

 

[Aviano90]

Yes because the 1st category is 11-20 yards. Top QB's make their money in the NFL passing in the 1st 2 categories 11-20 and 21-30. NO QB in the NFL has many attempts in the last 2 categories and no QB in the NFL complets a high percentge of those passes

Alright man. I will look for more 11 yard deep passes then. Should help now Witten is gone.

 

[kskboys]

Dak throws downfield when he's out of the pocket. He's very good at extending plays with rollouts, and that's when receivers come wide open.

But he doesn't like tight windows from the pocket because he knows he's inaccurate from there.

As far as "dinks and dunks", it's not just swing passes. He throws underneath in front of the sticks. When the defense sets up deep on 3rd and 9 at the sticks, he avoids throwing beyond the first down marker and opts too much for the safety valve throw.

That's normal for a young QB.

My concern is that he just doesn't have the accuracy necessary to overcome this. His mechanics are a mess, and his arm is average at best.

However, the guy is going to do everything he can to try to overcome it. That's what he's about. First rate character and work ethic.

I also think it benefits him GREATLY to have Dez out of here. No more needy divas.

Good stuff, except you are underrating his arm strength. He has a "live arm" and throws the ball w/ good zip.

Agree w/ everything else.

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Alright man. I will look for more 11 yard deep passes then. Should help now Witten is gone.

You do that and ignore the deep 17-20 yard out pass. It is a category and that is what QB's are rated on. I guess if the categories were 5 yards instead of 10 we could elimenate the 11-15 yard category and consider it a short/intermediate pass. Of course maybe you can explain why Dak had such a dropoff in the 11-20 yard category from 2016 to 2017 (61.6% completed to 44.9% in 2017) does that mean he can no longer even throw a short pass?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Football Outsiders doesn't grade quarterbacks on accuracy. The accuracy article published on their site was from the Deep Ball Project, which ranked Dak fifth in raw accuracy and second in efficiency score (based on all passes 16 yards or more). It's completely unrelated to DYOA and DPOA, which are derived from play-by-play statistics.




I don't "trust" their subjective stats, but I recognize them as one of the sources for them. The more sources, the better -- as with any other subjective stats (passing accuracy, dropped passes, completions allowed for defensive backs, sacks allowed for offensive linemen, etc.). There is judgment involved in all of those, but at least it's usually binary.

I could care less about PFF's overall grades, for multiple reasons. If you want me to explain all of them, I will.

Their signature stats say that he is mediocre. Their deep ball project includes 15-20 yard passes which is asinine as it is obviously intermediate. It also does not consider how Dak has to alter his mechanics on longer throws.

And you pick and choose PFF's subjective calls. On the one hand, what is catchable, what is a drop, etc that I was pointing out to you in the beginning is fine. Their grades are not although they used the accuracy metric that you initially supported and thought was used on their deep ball stats. Obvious bias is obvious.

 

[HungryLion]

Dak throws downfield when he's out of the pocket. He's very good at extending plays with rollouts, and that's when receivers come wide open.

But he doesn't like tight windows from the pocket because he knows he's inaccurate from there.

As far as "dinks and dunks", it's not just swing passes. He throws underneath in front of the sticks. When the defense sets up deep on 3rd and 9 at the sticks, he avoids throwing beyond the first down marker and opts too much for the safety valve throw.

That's normal for a young QB.

My concern is that he just doesn't have the accuracy necessary to overcome this. His mechanics are a mess, and his arm is average at best.

However, the guy is going to do everything he can to try to overcome it. That's what he's about. First rate character and work ethic.

I also think it benefits him GREATLY to have Dez out of here. No more needy divas.

I agree with some of your points and disagree with others.

3rd and 9 is difficult for most QB’s and offenses to convert. The nfl as a whole converts a low percentage of them.

I believe Romo was above average in that category. So it’s unlikely to find a QB as good as he was at converting it. The key obviously is to stay out of
Those situations as much as possible.

I also think a lack of speed at receiver makes converting those 3rd and 9’s more challenging.