Dak second to only Rodgers in 100+ QBR/games played

[mcmvp]

First of all, passer rating <> QBR. Two completely different stats.

Second, why would you only look at games that passed some arbitrary cutoff, and only at one end of the spectrum? Dak had five games with a passer rating >100 last year...and three games with a passer rating <60. Rodgers has had three games with a passer rating <60 in his last 117 games.

By passer rating, Wentz's worst game last season was better than seven(!) of Dak's games.

I'm a Dak optimist. But finding one made-up stat with arbitrary cutoffs that makes him look comparable to Rodgers, or Wentz, or Brady, and then acting like that means anything is just silly.

On the flip side of this, remember that passer rating doesn't account for rushing, where Dak has been much more productive than any of the other guys, particular in scoring TDs. All the more reason to look at the whole package instead of trying to find one sliced-up number to make your case for you. If you're going to use one number, at least use one that tries to capture everything, like FO's DYAR or DVOA, while understanding that those aren't perfect either.

Spot on

 

[HungryLion]

"From a statistical standpoint."

So you agree the stats are misleading?

And again, nobody is penalizing him. Stop with that nonsense.

The only nonsense is the subtracting his best play to evaluate his stats from the game.

 

[Cowboysfan917]

Dak does a wonderful job of protecting the ball and moving the chains. He’s efficient. That’s why his ratings are high. The problem is that a QB like Dak needs help to win games. When the pieces around him weren’t as good, he wasn’t as good because he had to throw more and make throws and reads he was not comfortable making.

 

[HungryLion]

First of all, passer rating <> QBR. Two completely different stats.

Second, why would you only look at games that passed some arbitrary cutoff, and only at one end of the spectrum? Dak had five games with a passer rating >100 last year...and three games with a passer rating <60. Rodgers has had three games with a passer rating <60 in his last 117 games.

By passer rating, Wentz's worst game last season was better than seven(!) of Dak's games.

I'm a Dak optimist. But finding one made-up stat with arbitrary cutoffs that makes him look comparable to Rodgers, or Wentz, or Brady, and then acting like that means anything is just silly.

On the flip side of this, remember that passer rating doesn't account for rushing, where Dak has been much more productive than any of the other guys, particular in scoring TDs. All the more reason to look at the whole package instead of trying to find one sliced-up number to make your case for you. If you're going to use one number, at least use one that tries to capture everything, like FO's DYAR or DVOA, while understanding that those aren't perfect either.

This is a fair part of Dak’s evaluation. Last season his play really fell apart the second half. It’s 100% true.

However, I do think his stats about how many games he has played well is valid from the standpoint of looking at his ability to play well.

The issue is consistency. Consistently playing well, especially when the protection is poor.

Some people would have you believe he hasnt shown the ability to play at a high level, period. Which isn’t true.

That’s the difference in the argument.

 

[pansophy]

I watch cowherd but he works off agendas, for instance to prove that LeBron is the GOAT he tears down or diminishes Jordans, Kobe's, Durant's accomplishments to lift the players he likes. Cowherd hates Dez so he has to tear down Dez and lift up Dak the same as he did for Lebron. He uses this tactic to try to sway people to his side and to some it works.

You start with the opinion that Dak is good and we just need the online to do their job and the wr to do their job and he'll be in the mvp discussion.

I start with the fact that Beasley, Witt, Twill, and Dez did not all fall off at once so the QB play must have fell last year. When QB play falls, for what ever reason, then wr play falls that just how it works. You can't make excuses for Dak that don't also go for the receivers. Take the Atlanta game, should we have had a 100 yard receiving game from any wr or te?

If I told you my kitchen sink was having trouble draining, you'd probably tell me to try to unplug that sink and that should solve the problem. What if I told you that all the sinks in my house were having trouble draining, then you tell me to check the main drain because if none of them will drain then the problem lies with what they have in common.

In 2017 Dak was the main drain.

With Zeke and Smith playing we were good enough to win last year. Trent Dilfer won a super bowl. We spend too much time here believing we have to have the greatest QB in the history of the NFL to win a super bowl. We need some defense to go with our offense. Jones never adjusted his style of player acquisition to the salary cap era, and instead tried to spend big on stars and then find physically talented but risky players on the cheap to fill in the rest. That was his solution, and I would hope that after 20+ years they have learned that it doesn't work. At some point players get injured and you need some decent players to fill in for them.

 

[cowboy_ron]

SSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...there are Romo fan boyz in the house....keep it low down, close to the breast!!

I'm confused why some feel that they have to hate one in order to like the other......I was a huge Romo fan when he was here....he's now in another career and think he'll have a very successful career in broadcasting.............I also think Dak has done extremely well in his first two years and expect him to continue to improve as I do other players on the team.....Go Cowboys

 

[aikemirv]

Comprehension is our friend.
2017 Dak 5 100+ games, Wentz 6
2016 Wentz who got the surrounding talent excuse had 3 games of 100+ and had a 79.3 QBR.

So Wentz progressed and Dak digressed - I got it now!

 

[G2]

Dak does a wonderful job of protecting the ball and moving the chains. He’s efficient. That’s why his ratings are high. The problem is that a QB like Dak needs help to win games. When the pieces around him weren’t as good, he wasn’t as good because he had to throw more and make throws and reads he was not comfortable making.

Kind of like when the team announced it was going to become Romo-friendly? All teams have QBs who need help around them. That's how a team works.

 

[HungryLion]

So Wentz progressed and Dak digressed - I got it now!

I wouldn’t say Dak digressed. He seems to be pretty focused on football.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Dak was good in 2016, not very good in 2017
Wentz was good in 2017, not very good in 2016

Wentz played 14 games in 2017
Dak played all 16

blah blah...

Not sure Wentz is their franchise QB, anymore then I am sure Dak is ours.

There is no comparison to Rodgers though... that is pretty much laughable in every way possible.
Rodgers only played 6 games in reality last season. Since he only threw 4 times before he was taken out in the Vikings game
last season. The last game he played he sucked, after coming back from injury, which isn't that unexpected.

Personally I can't stand Rodgers...

But, most QBs in the NFL couldn't hold his jock strap, let alone comparing Dak to him.

Another reason stats suck for comparing players. If there is any person that would rather have Dak as the QB over Rodgers
for us, they have to put down the pipe, or seek medical attention quickly, because something is wrong.

I mean heck I liked Romo, and Romo would have been sitting on the sidelines watching Rodgers play as well...

There are some players, you just can't compare other players to. No matter what stats tell you, it still is laughable.

I have no idea why you're saying stats are bad, based on what they say about Rodgers. All the stats show that Rodgers is one of the greatest QBs, if not the greatest, ever to play the game. Even the ridiculous made-up stat in this thread (% of games with 100+ passer rating), designed to make Dak look as good as possible in comparison to other QBs, ended up with Rodgers on top.

 

[817Gill]

I watch cowherd but he works off agendas, for instance to prove that LeBron is the GOAT he tears down or diminishes Jordans, Kobe's, Durant's accomplishments to lift the players he likes. Cowherd hates Dez so he has to tear down Dez and lift up Dak the same as he did for Lebron. He uses this tactic to try to sway people to his side and to some it works.

You start with the opinion that Dak is good and we just need the online to do their job and the wr to do their job and he'll be in the mvp discussion.

I start with the fact that Beasley, Witt, Twill, and Dez did not all fall off at once so the QB play must have fell last year. When QB play falls, for what ever reason, then wr play falls that just how it works. You can't make excuses for Dak that don't also go for the receivers. Take the Atlanta game, should we have had a 100 yard receiving game from any wr or te?

If I told you my kitchen sink was having trouble draining, you'd probably tell me to try to unplug that sink and that should solve the problem. What if I told you that all the sinks in my house were having trouble draining, then you tell me to check the main drain because if none of them will drain then the problem lies with what they have in common.

In 2017 Dak was the main drain.

I was referring to Colin's evaluation of NFL qb's and their tiers; and how Dak fits into that. He does use biases in alot of things especially in the NBA, but he's been pretty accurate the last few years in his NFL predictions and I think he makes valid sound points occasionally. When it comes to the Boys especially, he isn't overly biased either way. Specifically his segment on NFL QB's and their tiers.

I wasn't saying each player lost the physical ability to play, I'm saying the whole group took a step back because of the nature of the passing offense. I can't remember which podcast it was but Broaddus offered some insight on why the passing offense experienced some of the difficulties it did in 2017. Starting in 2014, the team really began to show a commitment to running the ball. With DeMarco and the 3 all-pros on the line, the team was able to shape the offense into what we saw in Romo's last years and beginning of Dak's. An older and more injury prone Romo was the reason the team invested so much into the o-line and running game; to take the pressure off him and allow him time and mismatches to make plays.

Dez had just come into his own as a superstar and had an amazing chemistry with Romo. It has been documented that Romo checked out of run plays to make the big play to Dez (something Garrett never appreciated). Romo liked to have as much control as possible towards the end of his career, and because of his relationship with Dez and Witten the coaching staff implemented schemes and game plans that fit Romo and Dez's ad lib style to a T. Why didn't Dez Bryant learn to run more routes and crisper routes? Because he didn't have to. Tony could simply make him open at all times, something very few qb's can do. Dez's career highlights are filled with contested jump balls and breaking free after a Romo scramble. Throw in some broken tackles on slants and that's Dez's career reel. Romo loved to be able to ad lib on offense and Dez benefited from it. The passing offense subsequently ran through Dez and the more effective he was and more attention he commanded, the more the offense opened up for the other receivers. Dez was quite literally the main valve that funneled production to T-Will and Beas. Without Dez, T-Will has never stepped up. Without Dez taking the double team consistently, Beas gets bracketed and can't do much.

Now in 2016, the team was ready to roll with Romo. But since the injury happened and they had to roll with a 4th round rookie, in order to make sure he was comfortable, the team gave him a dumbed down play book that used plays to highlight his strength (read-option, play-action boots, etc.). Just like any team with a rookie QB, they were not going to give him too much with the full Romo offense. With a playbook suited more to his strengths and a running game to match, coupled with Dez being in and out of the line-up, we got to see how Dak likes to play. Strong running game and going through reads quickly to pass to guys on-time. Instead of seeing this and tailoring an offense to him specifically for 2017, the team decided to give him Romo's full offense.

Now since Romo's passing offense relies on ad-libs and going through Dez with the special chemistry they had, Dak was already at a disadvantage scheme wise. This may have been able to work but once it became clear that Dez was no longer the Dez from 2014, the scheme became a detriment. Dez is unsigned and there's a good chance he will remain so until an injury opens up a spot. His tape is bad and shows a guy who is extremely inconsistent as a route runner and suddenly as a catcher. He no longer is the #1 guy you can run your passing game through, and while that could've been masked with his chemistry with Romo, no longer is a fit for what the team wants to do.

in 2018, the team wants to build an offense around Dak's strengths because duh. They should have done this last offseason. Dez cannot do what is going to be asked of him in this system and wouldn't be a positive influence on Dak. Romo could always handle Dez as he was older and had success in the league before; he was the best one to corral him and make him happy.

I'm not doubting that T-Will and Beas still have the physical ability to be contributors. What I am saying is that with the scheme the team had in place for Romo and the dependence on Dez, the passing game cannot be effective. Dez is no longer Dez and Romo is one hit away from being paralyzed. The team needed to adapt its scheme to the current personnel. They finally have. Dak cannot reach his full potential in an offense suited for another QB with WR's who don't play to his strengths. The team's personnel and scheme were not in sync last year as they were in 2016 when Dez was off the field and the offense highlighted Daks strengths.

No QB can reach their full potential without the proper set up around them. Derek Carr is the perfect example. 2016 he had his o-line, running game, and 1-2 punch at receiver. In 2017 the team tweaks passing attack scheme (went through 2 offensive coordinators last year and didn't retain either this offseason), the o-line under-performs and so does the running game, and Crabtree and Cooper have down years. So when Derek Carr didn't play as well in 2017, it wasn't surprising. Only the elite QB's can win despite multiple issues; last I checked Dak's last name isn't Brady or Rodgers. Our QB can play when the team is built correctly around him and can't when the team isn't. That's football guys, its a team game and Dak needs his team to play well. Only the very elite win when their team plays poorly.

When Dak starts losing games when the team is playing good ball and receivers are more than 24th and 89th in separation, then I'll be worried. If he plays poorly when the team plays poorly and well when the team plays well, I'd be more focused on making the guys around him more consistent; which is hopefully what will happen in 2018.

 

[zerofill]

I have no idea why you're saying stats are bad, based on what they say about Rodgers. All the stats show that Rodgers is one of the greatest QBs, if not the greatest, ever to play the game. Even the ridiculous made-up stat in this thread (% of games with 100+ passer rating), designed to make Dak look as good as possible in comparison to other QBs, ended up with Rodgers on top.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/dak...0-qbr-games-played.405432/page-5#post-8182578

 

[zrinkill]

Not a stupid comparison. RGII had 2 years before injury

Yes it is

RG3 only played 14 regular season games his first year and 13 games his second ...... he hurt his knee 2nd year.

Dak never injured.

RG3 went 9-6 AND 3-10 His first two years

Dak went 13-3 and and 9-7 his first two

Keep digging boys ......... it wont change the facts or the way our new QB looks

 

[Kevinicus]

The only nonsense is the subtracting his best play to evaluate his stats from the game.

There you go back to the "best play" garbage.

The play was an outlier and it was not an example of him making a good play.

 

[hairic]

Combining data. Prescott's 2016 finale doesn't qualify but is included here so the actual % is 51.6% of 31 games. I'd already cut out non-starts and non-qualifying games from the others.

 

[silvrNblue]

I think you mean weekly fact threads, or weekly make Dak-haters look like idiot threads.

Don't think anyone needs try overly hard to make dak haters look like idiots...just sayn

 

[Htown-Cowboy]

Guess what else happened in the second half of the season. No Zeke and no pass protection. I wonder if that factored into his decline? Probably not though, second year QBs are supposed to make play after play with pressure in their face to receivers who struggle to beat 1v1. 14 sacks in the three games immediately following Zeke and Ty's departure sounds like the coaches made all the adjustments they could and Dak still couldn't find a way to get the ball to a guy who can't catch with his hands and another guy who can only run 2 routes. When defenses adapted to Dak's strengths it should've been on him to make a new game plan and adjust for these changes, not the coaches. He should throw for 400 yards and no picks every game regardless of his O-line play and lack of adequate WR play. But if the O-line is playing well and receivers get open, it's because he had all day to throw dink and dunk passes to wide open guys. I'm with the Dak haters now, they are too logical in their evaluation of Dak to argue with.

**A whole lot of sarcasm for those who don't catch it. Just like every other non-top 5 qb, the guy needs players around him. How did Derek Carr play in 2016 vs 2017? Well his O-line played worse, his rushing attack wasn't the same, and other than a handful of games Cooper and Crabtree were spotty at best. But he throws the ball a little prettier and he looks a little different than Dak so his "regression" isn't attributed to him but to the o-line, receivers, poor D, and bad coaching. When teams as a whole get worse typically the QB plays worse too unless they are Brady/Rodgers/Brees. Looks like the Raiders regressed as a whole from 2016 to 2017, but for some reason fans aren't calling for a new QB in the bay. Go figure.

Best Post/ Reply of the off season nominee!!!

 

[ghst187]

Sure, Prescott had 11 of his 100+ passer rating games in 2016 and “just” five in 2017

Again, if anyone wants to argue that he did not regress in 2017 then please do so! I know you have a lot who say he dinked and dunked in 2016 and I am not one of them. But the fact of the matter is that defenses figured out what he did best and took it away an he struggled and he needs to adjust to have a good 2018. Not saying he cant, but he was not good the second half of the year, period and could not make plays on a regular basis to sustain drives!!

I don’t think we can say his worse year was any one thing, it was many. Sure defenses scouted him better but also Zeke missed a big chunk of the year, the offensive line was largely bad or at least dealt with injuries and gave up a lot more pressure (possibly in part because Zeke was out), and teams figured out they needed to double Bease and no one else. The entire offense and team was worse last year and our coaches have never been able to cover even a slight weakness or injury with scheme. I think Dak could’ve played equally well as his first year and we still would not have won as many games, maybe not even make the playoffs. I mean should we blame him for losses like Atlanta game? Bottom line, he didn’t have as good a year but the entire team didn’t either. Barring catastrophe, I think this year tells us what we need to know about Dak and I think he’s going to have a big year.

 

[ghst187]

Best Post/ Reply of the off season nominee!!!

Seconded

 

[pansophy]

Combining data. Prescott's 2016 finale doesn't qualify but is included here so the actual % is 51.6% of 31 games. I'd already cut out non-starts and non-qualifying games from the others.

Where do you get the raw data. Looks like an example of regression to the mean. Nice work.