4th Down No Problem: Go for it!

[T-RO]

Reading helps. Did the Cowboys take chances like this?

4th and 8 on opponent’s 43
4th and 5 from their own 49!
4th and 8 from opponents 32
4th and 5 from opponents 17
4th and goal from opponents 4

Eagles did.

 

[Idgit]

By sheer count. But what did most of that consist of?
4th and one
End of half/end of game

Go back to my earlier post that detailed the types of scenarios where Philly went for it. Whole different enchilada.

We weren’t even on the same page in terms of taking risks.

When you make it 68.9% of the time and have a top five defense if you fail, your incentive to take big risks goes up.

Compare that to 52.6% success rate even accounting for the much shorter to-go yardage you point out...both the risk and the likely return are not the same.

That said, we still went for it on fourth downs more often than most, so the people complaining about tendencies for this team are making things up to fit an agenda, again.

 

[T-RO]

When you make it 68.9% of the time and have a top five defense if you fail, your incentive to take big risks goes up.

Compare that to 52.6% success rate even accounting for the much shorter to-go yardage you point out...both the risk and the likely return are not the same.

That said, we still went for it on fourth downs more often than most, so the people complaining about tendencies for this team are making things up to fit an agenda, again.

Help me out here. What’s my agenda? What’s the general tenor of my threads and posts?

 

[T-RO]

When you make it 68.9% of the time and have a top five defense if you fail, your incentive to take big risks goes up.

I believe we’ll have a top ten defense. And we have the perfect o-line to afford more risk-taking.

Two of the biggest philosophical changes I predict that will emerge across the league from SABR:
-Teams won’t be so quick to settle for field goals.
-Teams will be willing to more risk In short yardage 4th down plays even while in their own terrritory

It’s a bit like the NBA and the 3-point shot.
2 versus 3 points
3 versus 7 points

 

[Idgit]

Help me out here. What’s my agenda? What’s the general tenor of my threads and posts?

I don't think you're complaining about the Cowboys here so much as saying we ought to take more big risks on 4th down. I generally agree with that, as the data suggests teams don't go for it nearly enough. I was only providing context, above.

When I mentioned an agenda, I was referring to others in the thread who were dumping on the offense and staff again.

 

[T-RO]

When I mentioned an agenda, I was referring to others in the thread who were dumping on the offense and staff again.

Oh. Understood. Those with finely tuned negativity fast-twitch muscles.

I’m generally positive but I don’t steer away from criticism where it’s merited...even if it gives ammunition to those fixated on darkness.

 

[Melonfeud]

You are reflecting the traditional conservatism of many coaches and fans.

Suppose it’s 4th and 3 on the (opponents) 35 yard line

If the odds are 50-50 to get a 1st down...leading to a TD
...that’s better point value than a 90% field goal attempt.

I've read through the entire thread& this post continually kept circling in a fuzzy orbit in my FEUDIAN 50/50 theorem,,,and I had to revisit it, as 'points' on the board wins the games, a 90% 3 pointer,,,or a 'If' 50-50 odds leads to a T.D.?,,,MAN! LOGIC DICTATES you take the almost guaranteed 3-pointer,,,unless you're already in the hole or wanting to instill yer' dominant force of will out on the playing field early,,, other than those two scenarios,,,it just don't jibed % wise

 

[Proof]

The Eagles are a high IQ, progressive, and innovative organization. The Cowboys are a low IQ and archaic organization.

They won a title. They deserve the respect that accompanies it. This lovefest has run a bit amok. Their coach is aggressive. He was aggressive the previous year as well and it bit him in the ***. Last year the stars aligned.

 

[BAT]

Yea only idiots graduate from Princeton

I've known idiots who graduated from great schools, including Princeton.

 

[T-RO]

I've read through the entire thread& this post continually kept circling in a fuzzy orbit in my FEUDIAN 50/50 theorem,,,and I had to revisit it, as 'points' on the board wins the games, a 90% 3 pointer,,,or a 'If' 50-50 odds leads to a T.D.?,,,MAN! LOGIC DICTATES you take the almost guaranteed 3-pointer,,,unless you're already in the hole or wanting to instill yer' dominant force of will out on the playing field early,,, other than those two scenarios,,,it just don't jibed % wise

Obviously the opponent, matchups and venue make a big difference.

Let’s suppose it’s half-time and we are down 21-17 against a good offense. It’s reasonable to expect that to win such a game we’ll need 37 or more. You won’t likely get the needed points by kicking field goals.

If on the opening 2nd half drive it’s 4th and 3 on the 16 yard line....there’s a very good argument to be made to forgo the field goal and push for 7 points.

Consider the reward of success: 2.3 times as many points.

Now consider the ‘reward’ of failure: If you don’t make it you leave your opponent in very poor field position.

Miss a field goal and the opposing team gets the ball on the 35.

I don’t have access to the data rates for success...but NFL teams have a full database. In future years teams will have calculated odds for their offense versus particular opponents. The max-points calculation will win out over tradition and emotion.

 

[T-RO]

They won a title. They deserve the respect that accompanies it. This lovefest has run a bit amok. Their coach is aggressive. He was aggressive the previous year as well and it bit him in the ***. Last year the stars aligned.

Small sample sizes don’t prove a whole lot one way or another. Moving forward teams will use large historical data sets and then factor in unique/specific factors. I use the Eagles as an example as they are on the leading edge. This way of thinking is coming, and all teams (all of them) will become more aggressive in coming years. I just don’t want Dallas to wait.

I had this argument with baseball fans on Ranger forums starting almost ten years ago. First it was just the Oakland A’s using analytics...now it’s all MLB teams and the way math is used spreads to more aspects of sports every year. The NBA and NFL virtually all have analytics departments now.

 

[buybuydandavis]

These are scenarios I could see Dallas become much more aggressive in 2018.

4th and one foot, our own 41 yard line...go for it.
4th and two, opposing 44 yard line...go for it.
4th and goal...2 yards out...go for it.
...

On top of the league-wide analytics we have invested in a premium o-line. I say we need to take more risk, press opponents and keep our offense on the field.

I believe we did just that. Zeke converted a lot of 4th and short.

Zeke 4th down run attempts.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElliEz00/splits/2016/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElliEz00/splits/2017/
2016 3/3
2017 5/6

And he missed 6 games in 2017. It's clearly a strategy now.

I agree with your premise. We should keep doing it.

 

[Rockport]

Garrett has been overly conservative in nature for 11 years since he has been here. So your hope is that someone clues him in and tells him to be more aggressive and he listens?

Wouldnt it be nice to have a HC that does things without having to be told? That had a feel for the game?

Even if you tell a guy to be more aggressive you have to have a feel for the game and know when to press the gas and when to step off. A clueless guy trying to be aggressive is like a loose cannon. It will backfire if he doesnt know what he is doing.

You havent’ watched or paid attention because Garrett has taken more risks in the last 2 years. More trick plays and gone for it on 4th down more.

 

[Undefeated]

Maybe even some 2 point conversions in certain situations

 

[MRV52]

These are scenarios I could see Dallas become much more aggressive in 2018.

4th and one foot, our own 41 yard line...go for it.
4th and two, opposing 44 yard line...go for it.
4th and goal...2 yards out...go for it.

The Eagles coaches let the analytics dictate last season...and the analytics suggest it’s a much smarter to be aggressive over conservative in 4th down decision-making.

Philly was crazy-successful w/this approach last season.

On top of the league-wide analytics we have invested in a premium o-line. I say we need to take more risk, press opponents and keep our offense on the field.

Do you know who we have for a head coach?

 

[Doomsday101]

Cowboys ranked 8th in 4th down attempts. I don't think there is a big issue with going for it on 4th down

 

[northerncowboynation]

These are scenarios I could see Dallas become much more aggressive in 2018.

4th and one foot, our own 41 yard line...go for it.
4th and two, opposing 44 yard line...go for it.
4th and goal...2 yards out...go for it.

The Eagles coaches let the analytics dictate last season...and the analytics suggest it’s a much smarter to be aggressive over conservative in 4th down decision-making.

Philly was crazy-successful w/this approach last season.

On top of the league-wide analytics we have invested in a premium o-line. I say we need to take more risk, press opponents and keep our offense on the field.

Yeah and I suggest at least 1 running play with Zeke on 1'st and goal from the 2 yard line. At least rumblin, stumblin 82 won't get in the way of a run call. Nor Dezzie Loo who

 

[Roadtrip635]

There's a big difference in analytics used in MLB and the NBA versus the NFL. The difference is in the number of attempts to gain the data, a 2 pt shot vs a 3 pt shot, the trade off works because of the sheer number of shots taken and higher total points scored. Miss a single 3pt shot and it doesn't change the complexion of the game or how the coach strategize after that miss, unless it's the last 2 minutes of game. Because of the relatively low number of real scoring opportunities in the NFL versus NBA/MLB, if you fail the consequences are much harsher. The NFL also has so many fewer games, much less margin for error if you lose a game. If this team truly embraced analytics, it would be built around defense first and on offense it would be built around the passing game, the rule changes over the last several years benefit passing game vs rushing game.

Tomlin got his team into trouble at times he didn't have to in the past using/misusing analytics. He was aggressive in going for 2 pt conversions, because the data showed it should produce better results. It works until it doesn't and changes the way he had to coach to make up for those failed attempts. Analytics is useful in building rosters, but using them during a game requires a feel for the game and moment. It also requires the ability to prepare and adapt for if/when it fails.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think going for it on 4th or not has a lot to do with what the situation is in the game. Late say in a game with 2 min, being down or tied and faced with 4th and 1 knowing a FG will give me the lead or get the gamed tied up I would be more likely to take the 3 than letting the game get away from me.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

I the Boys went for it 19 times on 4th down last year. Only a handful of teams had more 4th down attempts. IF I read this page correctly and that is a big IF, as i am not a stats guy. But if only 6 or 7 teams had more 4th down tries last year, I would say that put us in the aggressive category? Looks like we converted 52% of them.