Trends in Dak's 48 Career Starts

[percyhoward]

Sacks and fumbles caused by the QB are a major part of their evaluation.

I'm just giving you the parameters. Like I said, if none of the sacks/fumbles are his fault, he's 11th over the last 12 games. If they're all his fault, he's 16th. Since neither one of those things is true, he's somewhere between 12th and 15th, depending on how much of the blame you give him.

 

[percyhoward]

This doesn't account for him backing into sacks, running out of bounds and taking a sack (he's done this at least 3x this year alone), and not stepping into pocket.

Which is why I said "also." The numbers in the OP show that sacks/fumbles have doubled since Tyron started missing games, and Fred got sick, and Collins regressed, so there's that. Then, Dak often creates his own pressure. He's been sacked 52 times this season, and PFF attributes 14 of those to Dak himself. Here's a slightly different version of a post I made a month ago.

Sacks attributed to QB
(as a percentage of total sacks)
Prescott vs. top 10 passers
Mahomes 38.4% (10 of 26)
Wilson 28.9% (13 of 45)
Prescott 26.9% (14 of 52)
Watson 23.6% (13 of 55)
Goff 23.5% (8 of 34)
Rivers 12.5% (4 of 32)
Ryan 12.2% (5 of 41)
Cousins 8.3% (3 of 36)
Wentz 6.5% (2 of 31)
Tannehill 3.2% (1 of 31)
Brees 0 of 17

The top 4 QB on this list all rank in the top 10 in QB rushing yards. (Goff ranks 30th!)

 

[PUSHfold]

remember when a couple of weeks ago Das led offense scored 0 points....and last week, he threw for 150 yards. i mean all of 150 yards...yeah at 75% completion rate...he is amazing....

Yeah I remember but I also remember it being a game that honestly didn't matter much the ENTIRE TEAM played like ***. Do you remember a few weeks ago when Andrew Luck played the Jaguars and was shut out in a game which actually mattered a lot for his team? Ohhh Lucks such garbage. Do you remember a couple weeks ago when the Rams mighty offense only scored 2 field goals and Goff threw for under 200 yards and had 4 picks with a 19 QBR? Man could you imagine Dak sucking that bad and having a 19 QBR? Oh what do you know other QBs also have bad games but Dak's the only one whose getting nitpicked literally nonstop. He's our QB get over it.

 

[percyhoward]

Throwaway-to-sack ratio. Somebody must have done this stat before, but I don't remember ever seeing it.

(Dak vs top 10 rated passers)
Goff 34 sk 29 ta
Mahomes 26 sk 21 ta
Brees 17 sk 11 ta
Wilson 45 sk 20 ta
Ryan 41 sk 15 ta
Cousins 36 sk 11 ta
Watson 55 sk 15 ta
Prescott 52 sk 14 ta
Tannehill 31 sk 8 ta
Rivers 32 sk 7 ta
Wentz 31 sk 4 ta

The flip side of that is INT% under pressure. Same 11 guys.
Prescott 1.4%
Wilson 1.6%
Wentz 2.0%
Cousins 2.6%
Ryan 2.8%
Watson 3.0%
Goff 3.3%
Rivers 3.4%
Brees 3.6%
Mahomes 3.9%
Tannehill 4.2%

Clean-pocket INT%
Brees 0.3%
Ryan 0.7%
Mahomes 1.1%
Cousins 1.3%
Watson 1.3%
Wilson 1.4%
Rivers 1.5%
Wentz 1.7%
Prescott 1.8%
Goff 1.8%
Tannehill 2.3%

compiled from PFF data

 

[percyhoward]

Yeah, I prefer Home Depot to Lowe’s.

Janet said what?!

That's not how you fold a tent.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

 

[Sydla]

Can't say for certain, but the off-season hiring of offensive assistant coaches Kellen Moore (QB), Sanjay Lal (WR) and Paul Alexander (OL) were all reportedly based upon the wishes of offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.

Moore is a well-known favorite of Linehan.


It's a definite bad habit and I've heard Dak Prescott mention being upset with not stepping up in the pocket and causing a sack by drifting backwards after a game.

All players have areas of strength and weakness.

Dak seems like the type who will work hard to get better, though some of the burden also falls on the coaches who are teaching. Getting better play from the OL and skill positions will also help, as will possibly getting more turnovers on defense and an occasional long kick or punt return (they are not illegal) to set up a short field.

I'm not saying everyone around Dak has to play perfectly, there's just an obvious correlation with pass protection, an effective running game and receivers creating separation.

Jason Garrett will say when asked that Dak has to continue improving in every area of his game, all the players do.

Just looking at QB rating, Dak had a 100+ rating in 12 of 16 games as a rookie in 2016 (excluded reg season finale and included playoff game). That's 75% and I give loads of credit to the supporting cast for it, but that's crazy play for a rookie signal caller in the NFL.

In 2017, things didn't start as well, Dak had a 100+ rating in 5 of 16 games (31%), but 4 of them occurred in the first 8 games (50%) before the burning of Atlanta. He only had 1 such game in the last 8 last year (13%).

In 2018, Dak had a 100+ rating in 7 of 15 games (46%), with only 2 in the first 8 games (25%), followed by 5 of the last 7 (71%). Amari Cooper played in the eighth game and the seven that followed.

The first 24 games were largely good with some great, followed by an ugly 16 game stretch with few bright spots, and a rebound over the last 7 games.

Garrett is the head coach though. If Linehan brings in some boobs as assistants, that’s on Garrett. His butt is on the line. He makes the final calls as HC.

If he let Linehan pick his assistants, then yet another failure on the part of the HC.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

I'm just giving you the parameters. Like I said, if none of the sacks/fumbles are his fault, he's 11th over the last 12 games. If they're all his fault, he's 16th. Since neither one of those things is true, he's somewhere between 12th and 15th, depending on how much of the blame you give him.

Also thank you for the research, but unfortunately your hard work most likely won’t change anyone’s opinion one way or the other.

 

[817Gill]

Cloaked agenda? Dude this a DC fan site not international espionage - chill.

Also, as you may have missed, I mentioned that I didn’t disagree with the observations of the poster I replied to, but there are other threads to discuss those vs. a thread discussing actual stats. Whether they are relevant stats or not would be a viable response/discussion point - literally all I said. Not sure how you could glean any information about my position on the matter from that...

Take it somewhere else

This.

You’d like to think people are rational and logical haha but this forum shows you the truth.

If you don’t work for the NFL then using your personal observations as the authority for opinions is pointless. With stats we can actually see data and tangible evidence for a topic, just telling people you watch the game over and over isn’t going to make anything you say right.

 

[percyhoward]

All I'm saying is, why did two teams move on from the stat king known as Alex Smith?

Alex Smith was in his prime, healthy, and was a stat king.

No, the "stat kings" are the league's elite QB. Smith is more like a "stat vassal."

Passer rating
(avg rank in 7 best seasons)
Brees 2nd
Brady 3rd
Rodgers 3rd

Smith 12th

The Chiefs moved on from Smith despite his winning the passing title in 2017 because his career numbers were only a little above average, and they thought they could do better with Mahomes. Prescott's numbers (although he's younger than Smith) are at about that same level, which you'd know if you'd read the OP.

 

[starcity214]

No, the "stat kings" are the league's elite QB. Smith is more like a "stat vassal."

Passer rating
(avg rank in 7 best seasons)
Brees 2nd
Brady 3rd
Rodgers 3rd

Smith 12th

The Chiefs moved on from Smith despite his winning the passing title in 2017 because his career numbers were only a little above average, and they thought they could do better with Mahomes. Prescott's numbers (although he's younger than Smith) are at about that same level, which you'd know if you'd read the OP.

My whole point was that playing the way Alex Smith (and Dak also) plays the game will guarantee good stats while holding a team's offense back.

Best example I can think of is as follows -

4th quarter..

Tied game..

It's 3rd and 12..

Dak steps back and has Cooper 1 on 1 beyond the sticks and Zeke is in the flat while the defense is waiting to come up and make a tackle if Zeke gets the ball..

Dak can attempt to throw it to Cooper, wich if he completes the pass, will be a first down but if he doesnt, it will be an incompletion and bring down his stats..

If he throws it to Zeke, Dak will pick up a completion and some yards (but not convert the 3rd down) making his stats in the "4th Qtr while tied or ahead" look great but the offense will struggle..


As I said, two teams realized you can't win with that type of player. That's the type of production you hope to get from a backup QB but not a guy that's about to get a long term deal.

 

[starcity214]

Yeah I remember but I also remember it being a game that honestly didn't matter much the ENTIRE TEAM played like ***. Do you remember a few weeks ago when Andrew Luck played the Jaguars and was shut out in a game which actually mattered a lot for his team? Ohhh Lucks such garbage. Do you remember a couple weeks ago when the Rams mighty offense only scored 2 field goals and Goff threw for under 200 yards and had 4 picks with a 19 QBR? Man could you imagine Dak sucking that bad and having a 19 QBR? Oh what do you know other QBs also have bad games but Dak's the only one whose getting nitpicked literally nonstop. He's our QB get over it.

That's cute..

Luck is 6th in yards and 2nd in TDs this season..

Dak?

17th and 21st..

So you managed to find a game in wich Luck had a "bad game" to try and prop up Dak..

The problem is, a bad game for Luck is the same as an average game for our QB.

The people that love to mention other QBs bad games and missed throws remind me of a guy at work that calls in sick at least once a month and says "well such and such missed 2 days of work also" despite the fact that the man he is talking about has only missed those 2 days in 10 years he's been there !!!

 

[Vanilla2]

If you look at the numbers, you can see the effects of the things you're talking about. The OL issues and corresponding rise in sacks, the shift toward more conservative play and the corresponding drop in YPA while completion percentage increases, the OL issues and the loss of Witten and Bryant and the corresponding red zone problems and drop in TD passes (and increase in QB TD runs), the correlation between sacks and fumbles, the absence of Elliott and corresponding drop in passer rating, etc. If you actually spent some time reading the post you're responding to, you'd see that it isn't worthless or driven by an agenda, but instead objective and driven by curiosity and and the desire to inform.

The agenda was shown in the response to your post.

Good info

 

[Vanilla2]

He should get better at reading defenses
Accuracy can be a product of bad technique which may be correctable
He’s slow to make decisions which I don’t think is all that fixable
He has poor pocket presence which to me is one of those you have or don’t skills
To me if Dak can fix what’s fixable, and protect the ball he can be a NFL QB but he will always have some deficiencies

He is an nfl Qb though

 

[Bluefin]

The first 24 games were largely good with some great, followed by an ugly 16 game stretch with few bright spots, and a rebound over the last 7 games.

Most Cowboys fans know Ezekiel Elliott has led the NFL in rushing yards per game since entering the league along with Dak Prescott in 2016.

The nose dive in Dak's play that started last season when Zeke began his 6 game suspension has also been discussed at length.

While Zeke's rushing output has remained solid, there are some notable declines to be found since his suspension last year.

In his first 23 games before suspension, Zeke had 2414 yards (105 yd/gm), 11 100 yard games (48% gms) and 7 multiple rushing TD games (30% gms) with 22 total rushing TDs (96% gms).

In the 17 games after suspension, Zeke had 1634 yards (96.1 yd/gm) 6 100 yard games (35% gms) and 0 multiple rushing TD games (0% gms) with 6 total rushing TDs (35% gms).

The rushing yardage drop is minimal, the rushing TDs, more so.

Zeke has gone from basically scoring 1 rushing TD per game to 1 every 3 games.

 

[Kaiser]

The nose dive in Dak's play that began last season when Zeke began his 6 game suspension has also been discussed at length.

Part of that picture for both Dak and Zeke is the OL problems though. You have to factor in the Chaz Green Atlanta Debacle and Frederick being out this entire season. All of these problems compound each other, just like they were a virtuous cycle in 2016.

 

[WillieBeamen]

My whole point was that playing the way Alex Smith (and Dak also) plays the game will guarantee good stats while holding a team's offense back.

Best example I can think of is as follows -

4th quarter..

Tied game..

It's 3rd and 12..

Dak steps back and has Cooper 1 on 1 beyond the sticks and Zeke is in the flat while the defense is waiting to come up and make a tackle if Zeke gets the ball..

Dak can attempt to throw it to Cooper, wich if he completes the pass, will be a first down but if he doesnt, it will be an incompletion and bring down his stats..

If he throws it to Zeke, Dak will pick up a completion and some yards (but not convert the 3rd down) making his stats in the "4th Qtr while tied or ahead" look great but the offense will struggle..


As I said, two teams realized you can't win with that type of player. That's the type of production you hope to get from a backup QB but not a guy that's about to get a long term deal.

 

[Bluefin]

Part of that picture for both Dak and Zeke is the OL problems though. You have to factor in the Chaz Green Atlanta Debacle and Frederick being out this entire season. All of these problems compound each other, just like they were a virtuous cycle in 2016.

Very true.

And following the Chaz Green disaster during the burning of Atlanta, he was replaced by the equally inept Byron Bell to finish that game and the following week versus the Eagles.

The OL is a huge aspect for how the team performs and things really went south with Tyron Smith missing time last season and continued this year under the direction on new coach Paul Alexander until he was fired in late October.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

If I’m reading this correctly, @percyhoward is saying Dak is primed for a 2012 Flacco-like run through the post season. I mean, he didn’t outright say it, but I’m pretty good reading between the lines.

 

[Hadenough]

ATTENTION JERRY AND STEPHEN JONES!!
The latest trend I see on Dak is very alarming! Out of all the starting QBs in the NFL Dak hasnt thrown many TD passes. He has 18 TD passes and the only other starters that have less TDs also have less starts than Dak!
Keenum 17
Winston 17
Mariotta 11
Josh Allen 7
Darnold 17
Rosen 10

Now some of you will say well Dallas is a running team. Yes they are but thats between the 20s. How many times have we seen Dak drop back and throw inside the 10 yard line. The other alarming thing is those QBs dont have a guy like Zeke to draw the defense in to make passing easier. You compare Seattle and they are also a running team but Russell Wilson has 34 TDs and Seattle offense has scored 100 more points than the Dallas offense. This doesnt look good for the playoffs!