PFF: DLaw projected new contract, 6 years, $126M, $60M guaranteed

[MarcusRock]

You can make the argument that you don't want to spend that on a DL, but that number is right in line with the market.

Assuming a cap of $185 next year, Lawrence, at $21m, would be 11.35%. At $190, which isn't impossible, it's 11.05%.

Aaron Donald - 22.5/177 = 12.7%
Khalil Mack - 13.5/177 = 13.3%
Von Miller - 19/155 = 12.2%
JJ Watt - 16.7/143 = 11.7%
Olivier Vernon - 17/155 = 10.9%
Chandler Jones - 16.5/167 = 9.8%
Jason Pierre Paul - 15.5/167 = 9.2%

These numbers all skew a bit b/c of signing bonuses and cap gymnastics, but 11.35% is perfectly in line for where Lawrence should be. It's right below the truly elite players, but above the Vernons and JPPs of the world. I think the only one you point to that would, by any measure, pull Lawrence's number down is Chandler Jones, but that's outweighed by JPP and Vernon.

Nice post. Knew this thread would have some people in an uproar because some fans just don't want players to get paid, period. Doubly so to have it on your team where it's in your face. Tons screamed about not having a defense, we get a stalwart on defense, and now they want to let him walk with no suitable replacement on the roster as soon as it's time for the guy to get paid. Yeah, that's a coincidence alright.

 

[Verdict]

The truly elite DE's get over $20M a year. Lawrence is not in that class. Plus he's had back and shoulder issues. Still, he's a very good player and would be tough to replace if he walks. There is nobody on the roster today who could match his production at his position.

I think $17M-$19M a year with $40M-$50M guaranteed and a signing bonus of $25M-$30M would be a very fair deal. Structured to get out of it in 3 or 4 years with minimal cap implications.

That's pretty rich in Tanks favor actually. Tank made $17 million this year and did not sniff being top 10 as a pass rusher if you look at the entire season.

People will say yeah but he was hurt. Hell he has always been hurt. He's no more important to the team than Sean Lee was and we made him sign a contract that protected the team from injury. Tank deserves no better treatment than Sean Lee did at the time.

 

[jazzcat22]

Let him walk, trade any and all draft picks if needed, go get Nick Bosa for our DE.

 

[Verdict]

Miller and Donald may set the market, but in no way Lawrence is on their level. He's not nearly the game wrecker these 2 guys are.

No way Lawrence should be getting Miller, Donald or Mack money. He's not those guys.

Spot on. It's funny how so many want to roll up the Brinks truck for a guy who has never stayed healthy and has never truly been elite. You don't pay for elite unless you are elite and healthy. Tank has never been either.

 

[Future]

It's better to hurt your team for one year until you can replace him than crippling your team over and over by over paying a few players. Tank can NEVER justify paying him that kind of money unless he plays Mack or Donald level, which he has never done in his entire career.

The odds Tank over performing that type of contract is nearly zero. The odds of Tank being worth that sort of money and being a fair deal for the Cowboys is less than 25 percent. The odds of us regrettting that deal are nearly 75 percent.

Think about the Crawford deal and how bad people hated that deal. Ratliff. Dez. The list goes on and on.

Set a ceiling that's fair and reasonable and stick to it, or trade him. Hard decisions have to be made.

Taking the long view is, ironically, shortsighted, for a team built to win right now. If you're constantly worried that you might be overpaying in two years, you'll never win, because all of your good players will leave after their rookie deals.

Tank can justify it, because he's not getting Mack or Donald Money. The dollars is irrelevant, its % of cap that matters, and he's lower than both of them.

I didn't dislike any of those deals. Crawford was and remains a good deal.

We also need to remember that Lawrence isn't just a pass rusher. He's probably the best run defending 4-3 DE in the NFL who can also rush the passer. He is absolutely disruptive.

 

[Future]

Spot on. It's funny how so many want to roll up the Brinks truck for a guy who has never stayed healthy and has never truly been elite. You don't pay for elite unless you are elite and healthy. Tank has never been either.

He was absolutely elite the last two years. Unequivocally.

 

[Direwolf63]

I really appreciate the time you took to make your post. I also appreciate that argument that you are making. While it makes some sense there are no two situations and no two players just alike in the NFL.

Falling into this trap is how guys like Andy Dalton and Blake Bortles are getting paid. Neither are worth the percentage of the cap that they are currently getting paid. The Patriots come the closest to settting their own cap numbers and not letting the market drive what they pay.

They Patriots could have paid Chandler Jones, but instead traded him and moved on. It is how their window has "stayed open" for almost 20 years. We should learn something from that.

I don't want to see Tank playing for another team any more than you do. But what I want even less is to see Tank getting Von Miller/Mack/Donald money when he is not as good as any of them. You dont pay Mack money to anyone other than Mack.

If you over pay Tank, that's money you can't pay to a guy later on. You have to set a value and stick with it or trade the player. I think I would rather have the draft pick(s) and the cap savings than the player.

"The Patriot Way" is great in theory, but you need a Belichek to make it work.

And we obviously don't have that.

 

[MarcusRock]

It's better to hurt your team for one year until you can replace him

Who are we going to find out there in one year when we had a hard time finding someone to even sniff Ware's jockstrap in terms of talent? Stalwart DEs don't just grow on trees in the draft. And have you seen where we're drafting in the draft order? As much as people hate the market in a country built upon it, the rarer the diamond, the higher the price.

 

[MarcusRock]

We also need to remember that Lawrence isn't just a pass rusher. He's probably the best run defending 4-3 DE in the NFL who can also rush the passer. He is absolutely disruptive.

People don't like paying for disruption, they like the end-all, be-all sacks, baby! I'm no X's and Os guru by any means but that Atlanta game made me take notice that we need to lock Lawrence up. He was everywhere and did everything.

 

[Direwolf63]

The point is that $21m isn't overpaying Tank, it's market value.

You're basically advocating for what the Raiders did which, fine, but it means you don't believe that your window is open this year, because you're crippling this defense by moving Lawrence.

Again, comparing Mack and Lawrence is apples and oranges.

Lawrence is not that guy.

Olivier Vernon was a bad contract. He was overpaid. I think even the Giants would admit that. But it's a reasonable contract for a guy like Lawrence, who is a better player.

 

[charron]

Pay the guy. Jerry saving cap space does not help us win...spend every dang dime of it! Draft well, buy talent, field the absolute best team possible!

 

[Future]

Again, comparing Mack and Lawrence is apples and oranges.

Lawrence is not that guy.

Olivier Vernon was a bad contract. He was overpaid. I think even the Giants would admit that. But it's a reasonable contract for a guy like Lawrence, who is a better player.

I'm not comparing him to Mack, I'm saying he's a slightly worse player and should be paid slightly less. As cap %, that's exactly what $21m is.

It doesn't matter if it was a bad contract, it sets the market, as bad contracts always do.

 

[CCBoy]

To answer this question, I'd be talking intensely with the Dallas medical staff and trainers. Long termed, he fits need and skill. Smith has remained relevant despite injury...but I have memories of Dez Bryant as well.

 

[InTheZone]

Paying a good player as if he's a great player (just because he's the best one you have at his position) is bad business in the salary cap era.

Lawrence is not "good". He's better than that. And I'm fine with paying him, just make the contract shorter, like a 4 year deal

 

[Doomsday101]

This is only a projection from an outside source I think I will hold judgement until a real offer is on the table.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Last two years:

Sacks:
DLAW: 25
Miller: 25
Mack: 23

TFL:
DLAW: 29
Miller: 31
Mack: 23

QB Hits:
DLAW: 49
Miller: 49
Mack: 40

Forced Fumbles:
DLAW: 6
Miller: 6
Mack: 7

Elite.

 

[Vanilla2]

That's what some said about Dez and look how that one turned out. We knew Dez wasn't elite when we paid him too. Very similar circumstances. He's a tier or two below the really good pass rushers.

Dez was elite. Athletically.

Mentally he was not.

That no catch call in gb got in his head and his mental fragility got in the way of everything he did. Imo.

90 is different.

I feel he brings the dogg mentality we as a board say we want.

He should not be allowed to get away

 

[Denim Chicken]

Again, comparing Mack and Lawrence is apples and oranges.

Lawrence is not that guy.

Closer than you may think.

 

[beware_d-ware]

You can make the argument that you don't want to spend that on a DL, but that number is right in line with the market.

Assuming a cap of $185 next year, Lawrence, at $21m, would be 11.35%. At $190, which isn't impossible, it's 11.05%.

Aaron Donald - 22.5/177 = 12.7%
Khalil Mack - 13.5/177 = 13.3%
Von Miller - 19/155 = 12.2%
JJ Watt - 16.7/143 = 11.7%
Olivier Vernon - 17/155 = 10.9%
Chandler Jones - 16.5/167 = 9.8%
Jason Pierre Paul - 15.5/167 = 9.2%

These numbers all skew a bit b/c of signing bonuses and cap gymnastics, but 11.35% is perfectly in line for where Lawrence should be. It's right below the truly elite players, but above the Vernons and JPPs of the world. I think the only one you point to that would, by any measure, pull Lawrence's number down is Chandler Jones, but that's outweighed by JPP and Vernon.

Great post.

 

[aikemirv]

Last two years:

Sacks:
DLAW: 25
Miller: 25
Mack: 23

TFL:
DLAW: 29
Miller: 31
Mack: 23

QB Hits:
DLAW: 49
Miller: 49
Mack: 40

Forced Fumbles:
DLAW: 6
Miller: 6
Mack: 7

Elite.

I wish their was a stat for "blatant holds not called"!