PFF ranks Dak's accuracy

[buybuydandavis]

That information is actually in the screenshot in the tweet I posted earlier in the thread. PFF says he ranked 31st (out of 35) when the receiver was what they call "open," 9th when the receiver had a step of separation, and 11th when separation was less than a step.

And that's "accurate" throws, as opposed to "catchable."

The open misses are the brutal ones.

They don't have open, uncatchable?

The graphic is interesting for showing the problem. Worst with overthrows. Next worst with too high balls.

The overthrows on open WRs deep are brutal. They don't give the WR a chance, and leave TDs on the table. He needs to trust himself and his WRs more. Put a little arc on the ball and trust the WR to win the battle for position if you end up throwing it short.

 

[HungryLion]

So you mean Linehan was Dak's coordinator in College too?

Look at his draft profile it clearly says that Dak's completion percentage went up because of his constant use of checkdowns.

This is who Dak is.

Linehan made his name off the deep passing game in Detroit with Stafford.

That was for Dak’s senior season, not his junior season.

It also coincided with Dak’s offensive line being in shambles his senior season and facing constant pressure.

Hmmmm must just be a strange coincidence.

 

[ItzKelz]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

PFF also does not consider what was going on at WR prior to Cooper. Second half of the season was connecting at 71% of his passes I believe.

 

[Blackrain]

The open misses are the brutal ones.

They don't have open, uncatchable?

The graphic is interesting for showing the problem. Worst with overthrows. Next worst with too high balls.

The overthrows on open WRs deep are brutal. They don't give the WR a chance, and leave TDs on the table. He needs to trust himself and his WRs more. Put a little arc on the ball and trust the WR to win the battle for position if you end up throwing it short.

This is it in a nutshell get rid of the open misses and I think the mob quiets down . Dak did not have the chemistry with Gallup and it is understandable as he was a rookie and they missed some open passes . That should get cleaned up this year.

 

[Blackrain]

Hence the problem with most of the knuckle heads digging into their position like a tick on a dog.

Too bad they won't acknowledge that he is not as bad as the haters say he is but he is also not as good as the Dak lovers think he is either.

Which also means we have to have a bunch of these ticks starting threads to argue the same points over and over with little to no chance of changing other ticks opinions on the matter.

Yep and those TICKS suck the life and fun out of this forum . You look like an old country boy and should know what to do with ticks . Git er Done

 

[Ddisco22]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

None of this means anything! 100 different factors that goes into it.
We give quarterbacks so much credit, why do we even need good receivers if the quarterback has to do everything? Most of the time quarterbacks or either throwing the ball to where the receiver can catch it or throwing it away from the defender. it's not all about accuracy, you get a lot of help from good receivers too.

 

[Hadenough]

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

I think the only way you can completely evaluate a player is with a combination of stats plus using the eye test. I wonder if PFF breaks down the difficulty of throws and accuracy outside of 10 yds.

 

[percyhoward]

The open misses are the brutal ones.

They don't have open, uncatchable?

The graphic is interesting for showing the problem. Worst with overthrows. Next worst with too high balls.

The fact that he was 9th in catchable throws and 5th in INT% suggests that most of the "inaccurate" targets of open receivers were catchable. So it's important to keep in mind that, since PFF did not have us with a lot of drops, many of the passes that you're calling "open misses" were actually complete passes. You may be picturing a ball sailing way over the head of a guy 20 yards down the field, but the typical play represented by this data is a guy 5 yards past the LOS having to reach above the top of his helmet to make a catch.

Less important but worth pointing out, since most open receivers are near the LOS, these were mostly shorter throws. All of this matches up with his passer rating which shows the area where he has the most room for improvement -- targets less than 15 yards. This is the depth on the majority of a QB's attempts in the NFL, and PFF is telling us that Dak was "outside the frame" on these throws at a high rate. Of course, what they're not telling us is how that changed during the season after the trade for Cooper.

Target less than 15 yards
Games 1-7:
66.3% completion rate (27th)
5.7 yards per attempt (30th)
85.5 passer rating (27th)

Games 8-18:
76.9% completion rate (8th)
6.9 yards per attempt (8th)
102.3 passer rating (13th)

 

[xwalker]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

Not sure what to make of this stat.

 

[unionjack8]

This just feeds both narratives...and reading the thread the regular posters use it or mould it to suit their own agenda

 

[Bullflop]

I don't think there's any doubt but what Dak's accuracy leaves plenty of room for improvement. What I'm hoping for is that there's a possibility of that actually happening. It's difficult at best to predict if that will happen. If so, how much improvement is even possible? We'll see.

I'm hoping Jerry and son choose to wait at least until another season is well under way or over before jumping into another contractual obligation. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they'll decide to let the evidence guide their actions before making an inordinately big commitment.

 

[percyhoward]

Not sure what to make of this stat.

The "frame" vs "catchable" designations seem to paint a clearer picture of why Dez wasn't successful in 2017 and why Cooper made such a difference in 2018. They also reflect the problem with 2018's receiving group as it existed before the addition of Cooper. Other than that, there isn't any practical difference between catchable passes that are accurate and catchable passes that are inaccurate, at least from a QB's point of view. I'm looking forward to your insights.

 

[percyhoward]

I don't think there's any doubt but what Dak's accuracy leaves plenty of room for improvement. What I'm hoping for is that there's a possibility of that actually happening. It's difficult at best to predict if that will happen. If so, how much improvement is even possible? We'll see.

This was the effect of adding one WR in a mid-season trade:

Prescott, 2018
Games 1-7 (to Hurns/Gallup/Thompson/Austin)
38 of 73 (52%) 563 yds 3 td 3 int 74.2

Games 8-18 (to Cooper)
66 of 94 (70%) 896 yds 7 td 2 int 116.2

 

[Crown Royal]

It's not like Prescott was inaccurate on the deeper throws, if that's what you're implying. His 106.8 passer rating on 15+yard targets ranked 6th in 2018.

Man I feel like we've discussed this before, but I hate that 15 yards is considered deep by PFF. I get why it is, but I consider 20+ the start of deep and 15 as high intermediate. Ah well.

 

[percyhoward]

Man I feel like we've discussed this before, but I hate that 15 yards is considered deep by PFF. I get why it is, but I consider 20+ the start of deep and 15 as high intermediate. Ah well.

I try to remember to say "deeper," as in "not short."

20+ yard targets, 2018
passer rating
1 Wilson 129.8
2 Rodgers 124.0
3 Prescott 117.4
4 Brees 114.6
5 Ryan 113.9

Those rankings include postseason. In the regular season, Dak ranked right in the middle (16th) in attempts at that distance.

 

[Crown Royal]

The "frame" vs "catchable" designations seem to paint a clearer picture of why Dez wasn't successful in 2017 and why Cooper made such a difference in 2018. They also reflect the problem with 2018's receiving group as it existed before the addition of Cooper. Other than that, there isn't any practical difference between catchable passes that are accurate and catchable passes that are inaccurate, at least from a QB's point of view. I'm looking forward to your insights.

Have read through this entire thread and I have to say that if @Reality charged us for likes, I'd be in debt.

What I get from this is the same as what I feel when I watch - Dak will probably never be the best passer in the league or Cowboys history. He has 3 deficiencies, of which only 1 or 2 may be overcome in his career:

• Footwork - I think his dropbacks are sloppy and he could use an old Bill Walsh style clinic on proper QB footwork. Walsh's theory on footwork created Dan Fouts, found Montana (who already had good feet) and revitalized the career of Steve Young (who was hot garbage until Walsh got a hold of him). The mechanics are quietly what Romo improved every season through repetition. I think Dak can work on this first and probably get a ton better altogether from this alone.
• Decision Making - Thankfully, Dak's decisions err on the side of risk aversion and ball protection, so while this may never improve, that's OK. I don't know that Dak fully grasps the read-the-defense and quick processing yet, or that he ever will. I know he gets concepts and is a very intelligent QB, so that's not what this means, but I don't know that he'll ever be Manning-esque in his understanding of how to attack and anticipate. That said, he's a 3rd year QB and doesn't throw interceptions, so this is really minor. Sure, I wish he had more anticipation sometimes, but adding Cooper really takes away the need because he can separate so well.
• Accuracy - I don't think that if you put Dak in the Pro Bowl QB challenge he will win and hit each target the way you want. Jim Plunkett could reportedly hit the uprights from 50 yards out with regularity - that's just not the QB Dak is. Fortunately, and back to the prior point, his decision making means that when he misses, he usually misses for an incompletion.

Dak is not a perfect or even an ideal QB. He lacks some traits that the very best passers in the NFL has, but he makes up for them in other ways. His intangibles are phenomenal, his physical ability rivals the best athletic QBs in the league, and he creates opportunities for his targets. I think he's a very fine QB for a run-first team that doesn't really need or maybe even want the QB to be the focal point. I would propose that Brandon Weedon is probably a more accurate and talented passer, but is also a garbage QB. I would like an upgrade at QB and would love a better overall passer, but notwithstanding a tanked season and a top 3-5 draft pick, you're almost certain NOT to get that. WE have been incredibly lucky since 2006 to have a franchise QB who was undrafted, followed by a franchise QB from the 4th round. To have two QBs in a row with precious little resource expended to acquire is good fortune the likes of which unmatched in this league except for the Patriots.

Crap....typing that out loud I really want to see them get aggressive this offseason. This team needs a Super Bowl and the excuses are running thin!

 

[Bullflop]

This was the effect of adding one WR in a mid-season trade:

Prescott, 2018
Games 1-7 (to Hurns/Gallup/Thompson/Austin)
38 of 73 (52%) 563 yds 3 td 3 int 74.2

Games 8-18 (to Cooper)
66 of 94 (70%) 896 yds 7 td 2 int 116.2

It made a noticeable difference in Dak's stats, no doubt. What we had prior to Cooper's arrival obviously wasn't enough to maximize his production. I'm anticipating another WR to be forthcoming in the April draft, in addition to whatever Moore's play calling and Kitna's QB coaching does to further Dak's career, if anything. Nevertheless, his accuracy is and has been in question by many, including his advocates.

Dak will be seriously tested yet again in 2019 to see what he can accomplish then. I'm surely not ready to advocate his demotion nor his dismissal by any means. I'm 100% willing to wait for more evidence to surface. This is especially so, since our FO seems in the process of preparing to do the same.

 

[Crown Royal]

I try to remember to say "deeper," as in "not short."

20+ yard targets, 2018
passer rating
1 Wilson 129.8
2 Rodgers 124.0
3 Prescott 117.4
4 Brees 114.6
5 Ryan 113.9

Those rankings include postseason. In the regular season, Dak ranked right in the middle (16th) in attempts at that distance.

Middle sounds about right. There was that stretch of 6-8 games where he consistently had a target open deep but I think missed a couple more times than you would like, but he wasn't terrible at it either. Here is the thread I wrote on the subject then:

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/research-daks-deep-passing.422252/

He was pretty poor compared to the teams we faced, but I think it was just an unlucky stretch. Connect on 1-2 of them it changes the narrative.

 

[erod]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

Quarterback isn't played on a spreadsheet with a Mac like the nerds at PFF want so desperately to believe. The problem with these stats - and any stats - is that there is so much not taken into consideration.

What about the throws he didn't attempt because he's not comfortable with them? What about the throws that were too late, or too early, that could have resulted in big plays but didn't? What about the throws not made to receivers he didn't see open?

People like to dismiss the eye-test evaluations because they aren't based on facts. But statistical passing "facts" take so little reality into consideration. The eye test is a MUCH more credible assessment of a QB than a manipulated sets of numbers if the person watching understands what he's looking at.

Dak's accuracy issues are obvious, but that's only half the problem. And his strengths, which he certainly has, also aren't fairly represented statistically either.

 

[percyhoward]

Decision Making - Thankfully, Dak's decisions err on the side of risk aversion and ball protection, so while this may never improve, that's OK.

You can see this reflected in the 5% gain in accuracy on the deeper throws late in close games.

Crap....typing that out loud I really want to see them get aggressive this offseason. This team needs a Super Bowl and the excuses are running thin!

The thing is, assuming Fred returns and we get better in the red zone, you could make a pretty good argument for continuing with the same ball-control formula for three quarters, then get aggressive late. Especially if the defense plays like it did for the first 12 weeks.