PFF ranks Dak's accuracy

[xwalker]

The "frame" vs "catchable" designations seem to paint a clearer picture of why Dez wasn't successful in 2017 and why Cooper made such a difference in 2018. They also reflect the problem with 2018's receiving group as it existed before the addition of Cooper. Other than that, there isn't any practical difference between catchable passes that are accurate and catchable passes that are inaccurate, at least from a QB's point of view. I'm looking forward to your insights.

I've looked at this concept in the past with regards to receiver drop stats. They basically define a circle with the center at the receiver's jersey number and anything outside the circle is considered un-catchable. The PFF drop stats seem to have become the most used but there are other drop stats that vary from PFF.

I've wanted drop stats to be accurate but reviewing single games and comparing that game's drop stats to my observations have never matched up. I'm looking for fault vs no-fault by the receiver on drops; therefore, I'm estimating catchable vs not catchable on incompletions.

I've said before that Dak "aims" to the side of the receiver away from the defender to minimize INTs.
It's similar to baseball pitchers that nibble at the strikezone vs pounding the strikezone with 100mph pitches.

Dak also makes "throw-away" passes that are not obvious until after reviewing hundreds of his passes. The best examples were in 2017 on passes to Dez near the sideline.

Pseudo Throw-Away Low
If the DB had tight coverage but had over positioning on Dez, then Dak would throw near the feet or knees of Dez such that if Dez reacted back towards the QB at the last second he had a chance to catch the ball but the DB had zero chance.

Pseudo Throw Away High
If the DB was cutting under Dez, Dak would throw High. Again, if Dez reacted perfectly, he had a chance to cut upfield on his last couple of steps instead of continuing horizontally to the sideline at which point he would have a chance to elevate for the catch but the DB had zero chance.

If those passes that I'm calling pseudo throw aways were just inaccurate passes, then they would not perfectly coincide with with the DB positioning (i.e. DB over = low pass and DB under = high pass).

I didn't see the pseudo throw away concept nearly as often in 2018 without Dez on the team because Dak would just move to the next receiver in his progression instead of giving Dez the extra long time to attempt to get open. It seems obvious that in 2017 Dak was coached to give Dez extended time to un-cover, especially when Dez was the primary read on the play.

 

[Crown Royal]

You can see this reflected in the 5% gain in accuracy on the deeper throws late in close games.

The thing is, assuming Fred returns and we get better in the red zone, you could make a pretty good argument for continuing with the same ball-control formula for three quarters, then get aggressive late. Especially if the defense plays like it did for the first 12 weeks.

You are very right that personnel wise, you can expect that strategy to work. In fact, the one major defense that I put up for Garrett and even Linehan is that is the ONLY style of football that this team was built to play in 2018 and, after adding Cooper, allowed them to go on a crazy hot streak.

That said, I think you play a dangerous game when you design a ball-control offense that just holds on to the ball and is happy to punt for 3 quarters and only get aggressive late. It will win you several games, but sometimes you are in a game where you need to score early and attack. I THINK that they will be able to do that better next year - I think they were a lot closer to that in the Rams game than people think. But no matter what you're right - Frederick returning helps, especially if LG and RT can improve as well.

 

[Crown Royal]

I've said before that Dak "aims" to the side of the receiver away from the defender to minimize INTs.
It's similar to baseball pitchers that nibble at the strikezone vs pounding the strikezone with 100mph pitches.

This. This so much.

There are QBs who you wish would take less chances, but you don't want them to NEVER take chances. Dak is just the opposite. You want him to take MORE chances, but still minimize risk where possible. Fortunately, I think that will come with time and experience - Dak is really, really good with situational football. For instance, even though he took a ton of sacks last year, it isn't like they were sacks on 1st down at our own 20.

 

[xwalker]

This. This so much.

There are QBs who you wish would take less chances, but you don't want them to NEVER take chances. Dak is just the opposite. You want him to take MORE chances, but still minimize risk where possible. Fortunately, I think that will come with time and experience - Dak is really, really good with situational football. For instance, even though he took a ton of sacks last year, it isn't like they were sacks on 1st down at our own 20.

I agree, there are times that it would be good if he was a bit more aggressive.

He does get more aggressive if they are behind in the 4th quarter.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

I think you have to take all of this with a grain of salt (stating the obvious). One of my issues with Dak, despite the completion percentage or catchable balls is where he throws the ball, does he hit the WR in stride or does the WR have to slow down to catch, thus leaving yards on the field. knowing where to throw the ball is just as important and I don't think Dak is quite there.

 

[percyhoward]

You are very right that personnel wise, you can expect that strategy to work. In fact, the one major defense that I put up for Garrett and even Linehan is that is the ONLY style of football that this team was built to play in 2018 and, after adding Cooper, allowed them to go on a crazy hot streak.

That said, I think you play a dangerous game when you design a ball-control offense that just holds on to the ball and is happy to punt for 3 quarters and only get aggressive late. It will win you several games, but sometimes you are in a game where you need to score early and attack. I THINK that they will be able to do that better next year - I think they were a lot closer to that in the Rams game than people think. But no matter what you're right - Frederick returning helps, especially if LG and RT can improve as well.

In the games after Cooper joined the team, Dallas tied for 1st in TD scored from OUTSIDE the red zone and ranked 25th INSIDE the red zone with 13 TD over that stretch. If this team can get back to being a Top 10 RZ offense like it was in 2016 and 2017, and if the defense performs like it did for most of the season, and if Cooper has a similar year, we won't be in many close games by the 4th quarter.

OK, so I counted three "if's" there, but it's as likely to happen as not.

 

[percyhoward]

I've looked at this concept in the past with regards to receiver drop stats. They basically define a circle with the center at the receiver's jersey number and anything outside the circle is considered un-catchable. The PFF drop stats seem to have become the most used but there are other drop stats that vary from PFF.

"Frame" is head and torso, and "catchable" is outside of that but reachable.

PFF's drop numbers are higher than most because they count anything that was catchable and incomplete as a drop, whether it was inside or outside the frame. Which makes sense.

 

[percyhoward]

Middle sounds about right.

He ranked 4th during the regular season.

I was saying he ranked 16th in attempts, but 4th in passer rating. 3rd if you count postseason.

 

[CouchCoach]

Accuracy in a NFL QB is putting the ball where he wants to and there are QB's that throw receivers open that take them out of that receiver range. I think it is those apparent misses of open receivers that brings his accuracy into question, the consistency of it. And the standards for accuracy are the QB's that, more consistently, thread the needle with pinpoint accuracy like Brady, Rivers and Rodgers but I would like to see a different stat for comparison, passes that extend plays.

Hitting the receiver in stride to allow more yards isn't something I see in stats and YAC doesn't really reveal that because that can be so many factors but that is an area for improvement for him. But how many times do we see receivers reaching outside that "accuracy range" discussed here and how many times was that the only way to complete that pass? So, putting the ball where only his receiver can catch it but outside that "accuracy range" is inaccurate? The QB put the ball where he wanted to put it.

Well, while he isn't a QB that throws the ball a lot, according to Stats, he had the 3rd best number of dropped passes and the top 5 made the playoffs. So either he's got receivers with great hands or he is putting it where they can catch it. 10 drops compared to SEA's 8 and LAR's 9.

This does not take into consideration the balls into the ground or entirely out of the catch radius and it is those passes that brings on this inaccuracy debate. Passes missed so badly he must be inaccurate.

Prescott is not that precision pinpoint passer the majority of the time but we have all seen him drop the dime too much to say he is inaccurate. He can and does make all the throws but his play is magnified for three reasons. One, he is the DC QB and that just comes with the territory. Two, it is designed to be a ball control offense with fewer passes so each one is magnified and three, the Cowboys were the "close score team" of the NFL this season so everything about the QB gets examined more closely.

The real problem with this ongoing debate are the two extremes. One side claims he's approaching Tier 1 status and the other extreme claims he's not worth being QB1 and I believe both are incorrect. He will never be the passer Brady or Rodgers is but he is plenty good to be the QB1 and win a championship. The Cowboys need to take the NE approach and build around him, not the GB approach and count on the QB to deliver it.

 

[Melonfeud]

In the games after Cooper joined the team, Dallas tied for 1st in TD scored from OUTSIDE the red zone and ranked 25th INSIDE the red zone with 13 TD over that stretch. If this team can get back to being a Top 10 RZ offense like it was in 2016 and 2017, and if the defense performs like it did for most of the season, and if Cooper has a similar year, we won't be in many close games by the 4th quarter.

OK, so I counted three "if's" there, but it's as likely to happen as not.

 

[percyhoward]

What about the throws he didn't attempt because he's not comfortable with them? What about the throws that were too late, or too early, that could have resulted in big plays but didn't? What about the throws not made to receivers he didn't see open?

The throws that could have resulted in big plays but didn't are all included, because those are all pass attempts. The throws that he either chose not to make or didn't see are left up to our imaginations, but that's when you have to ask yourself how much better you expect him to be.

After the season's 3rd game, he was the league's 8th-highest rated passer. Maybe you're saying he should have been in the Top 3?

 

[erod]

The throws that could have resulted in big plays but didn't are all included, because those are all pass attempts. The throws that he either chose not to make or didn't see are left up to our imaginations, but that's when you have to ask yourself how much better you expect him to be.

After the season's 3rd game, he was the league's 8th-highest rated passer. Maybe you're saying he should have been in the Top 3?

What I'm saying is, passer ratings are mostly useless.

A dumpoff caught at the ankles in the flat that goes 90 yards for a TD in a blowout is a huge lift to passer rating. Much more than a 15-yard throw in to a tight window on 3rd-and-14 in a tight game.

Which of those throws should count more? That's why stats mean so little.

 

[jterrell]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

Main issue I have with it is as a former WR I was taught passes to the facemask were ideal.
Passes to the chest tend to get body caught.
To the facemask and they put those hands up or eat the ball.

 

[Crown Royal]

He ranked 4th during the regular season.

I was saying he ranked 16th in attempts, but 4th in passer rating. 3rd if you count postseason.

Dang....what was his overall completion percentage?

 

[HungryLion]

What I'm saying is, passer ratings are mostly useless.

A dumpoff caught at the ankles in the flat that goes 90 yards for a TD in a blowout is a huge lift to passer rating. Much more than a 15-yard throw in to a tight window on 3rd-and-14 in a tight game.

Which of those throws should count more? That's why stats mean so little.

What about the passes that should be caught for a 15 yard gain but then clang off a receivers hands and are caught for an INT?

Every QB faces and is affected by the scenario you mentioned above. They all benefit or are hurt by the players around them, because it’s a team sport.

But it’s also why stats don’t mean little. Because you are comparing stats with other quarterbacks who face similar benefits and negatives.

Stats don’t tell the whole story, but dismissing them because they don’t fit your narrative isn’t realistic either.

 

[jay94]

In a nutshell he's adequate, the elite will throw catchable balls allowing more explosive plays and this makes his whole team better by doing so.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

PFF also does not consider what was going on at WR prior to Cooper. Second half of the season was connecting at 71% of his passes I believe.

completion percentage and accuracy aren't the same thing.

 

[Runwildboys]

lol. PFF calls it a frame. I call it a receiver's catch radius. It would look more like a circle if a receiver moves his arms fully in a clockwise or counter-clockwise motion starting and ending above his head--not like a square or 'frame'. I like my description better.

They seem to be treating it like a strike zone. It seems they consider accuracy to be contingent on making it as difficult as possible for the pass to be defended, while still making it easy for the receiver to catch the ball.

 

[conner01]

To me, catchable means a lot more than accurate.

Exactly
I don’t think in many cases throwing at the numbers is the best place to throw anyway depending on the defender
It’s hard enough to determine catchable not sure you could ever judge accurate without know where they intended it to be placed

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Main issue I have with it is as a former WR I was taught passes to the facemask were ideal.
Passes to the chest tend to get body caught.
To the facemask and they put those hands up or eat the ball.

We all know that there are situation where it's best to put the ball on the WR. We also know that there are situations which require the pass to be lead. Situation that require a ball to be thrown in a very specific location in order to minimize the chance of a TO. We watch Dak and at least to me, I see it all the time, he is not accurate. I mean, he does show really good accuracy in certain situations and then, you watch him and you just can't figure out why he is not accurate in other situations, usually requiring a much lessor level of complexity. We see it week after week and I have no idea why. He had the same problem in College. It's really weird to me but I can't say that I would call him accurate. He is efficient and that's tricky because that can be confused with accurate but they are not the same thing. He does make passes that are caught and that are safe, his ability to protect the ball via the pass is excellent. He just doesn't put the ball in the best location to maximize opportunities, a lot of the time. That's just my opinion.