News: NFL executives say Dak Prescott is a “tier-? quarterback”. Did they get it right?

[percyhoward]

Before 55 executives and coaches are going to admit they were wrong not to draft Prescott, they are going to have to see more. Until then, he's just another prospect they were right about. The thing that's stopping them from putting Dak in the top tiers is the same thing that's stopping most people -- that 11-game stretch from the last 8 games of 2017 to the first 3 games of 2018.

It doesn't matter that Prescott ranks 8th in traditional passer rating and 4th in Total QBR over the last three years, even including that 11-game slump. People see the way he reacted without his starting OL and without a true WR1 and it gives them pause -- as it should. Those 11 games outweigh the other 39 because he was so bad in those 11 games. This year, if he puts together a full season like the last 15 games of 2018, he'll move up the list. If he has another slump (no matter the reason) it'll only confirm that these 55 guys were right about him.

The 55 are in the same place everybody else (who's honest, anyway) is at right now.

 

[Sydla]

Before 55 executives and coaches are going to admit they were wrong not to draft Prescott, they are going to have to see more. Until then, he's just another prospect they were right about. The thing that's stopping them from putting Dak in the top tiers is the same thing that's stopping most people -- that 11-game stretch from the last 8 games of 2017 to the first 3 games of 2018.

It doesn't matter that Prescott ranks 8th in traditional passer rating and 4th in Total QBR over the last three years, even including that 11-game slump. People see the way he reacted without his starting OL and without a true WR1 and it gives them pause -- as it should. Those 11 games outweigh the other 39 because he was so bad in those 11 games. This year, if he puts together a full season like the last 15 games of 2018, he'll move up the list. If he has another slump (no matter the reason) it'll only confirm that these 55 guys were right about him.

The 55 are in the same place everybody else (who's honest, anyway) is at right now.

Correct.

That 11 game stretch relative to the rest of this games just hammers home the point for many that Dak is the type of QB that can succeed if everything around him is working in sync, but once that gets disrupted (injuries to OL, no Zeke, no real WR) he tends to struggle. So it's hard to put that type of QB in a tier above where he is at now.

 

[Diehardblues]

I think the confusion is between his actual passing ability and his ability to win games.

Daks success isn’t really parallel to his passing ability. I’d rank Dak as a lower tier passer but an upper tier winner.

The kid simply has the ability to overcome his weaknesses and win football games. It’s just a matter of taking it to the next level. Is he capable of that. Time will tell.

Imagine if his passing ability was parallel to his winning ability. We might already be hanging a banner. Just saying..

 

[percyhoward]

Correct.

That 11 game stretch relative to the rest of this games just hammers home the point for many that Dak is the type of QB that can succeed if everything around him is working in sync, but once that gets disrupted (injuries to OL, no Zeke, no real WR) he tends to struggle. So it's hard to put that type of QB in a tier above where he is at now.

The thing about the highlighted part is that it matters less and less over time. The Hall of Fame is filled with players who thrived in great systems, under genius coaches, surrounded by outstanding talent. Nobody really cares about that stuff if you have a large enough body of successful work, and Dak obviously doesn't have that.

 

[Sydla]

The thing about the highlighted part is that it matters less and less over time. The Hall of Fame is filled with players who thrived in great systems, under genius coaches, surrounded by outstanding talent. Nobody really cares about that stuff if you have a large enough body of successful work, and Dak obviously doesn't have that.

Maybe but if Dak's production dips every time something goes wrong on offense (players hurt, players suspended, etc.) it's going to be hard to shake that perception.

Guys in the Hall of Fame did play with great players but more often than not, they made guys around them better, not the vice versa which seems to be Dak needs guys around him to make him better.

 

[InTheZone]

Tim Tebow was seemingly the most "clutch" for one season, doesn't mean he was the reason they won those games or made the playoffs lol

 

[Stash]

Before 55 executives and coaches are going to admit they were wrong not to draft Prescott, they are going to have to see more. Until then, he's just another prospect they were right about. The thing that's stopping them from putting Dak in the top tiers is the same thing that's stopping most people -- that 11-game stretch from the last 8 games of 2017 to the first 3 games of 2018.

It doesn't matter that Prescott ranks 8th in traditional passer rating and 4th in Total QBR over the last three years, even including that 11-game slump. People see the way he reacted without his starting OL and without a true WR1 and it gives them pause -- as it should. Those 11 games outweigh the other 39 because he was so bad in those 11 games. This year, if he puts together a full season like the last 15 games of 2018, he'll move up the list. If he has another slump (no matter the reason) it'll only confirm that these 55 guys were right about him.

The 55 are in the same place everybody else (who's honest, anyway) is at right now.

I don't disagree with you, but I don't agree with those 55 that can somehow have no trouble listing Goff and Wentz above him, unless it's based solely on perception vs reality. And I take major issue if that's their motivation.

 

[McKDaddy]

I think the confusion is between his actual passing ability and his ability to win games.

THIS!! Most fans can't separate that in the NFL the QB must be consistent & efficient with his passing just to be average. Elite QB's make the ridiculous throws that elevate their team even against superior opponents. Yes, there is a place for "intangibles" of which Dak surely has some but they can not be a substitute for the basic NFL passing skills.

 

[Diehardblues]

I have no problem ranking Goff and Wentz as a more prolific passer than Dak.

These rankings are often skewed because passing rankings don’t necessarily take into consideration intangible factors like winning.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Disqualifies the article? This isn’t just one dude’s opinion that he decided to type out and post on a blog. These are the results of an annual anonymous poll of NFL GMs and scouting execs giving their opinions.

You don’t have to like the results, but it’s sort of silly to question the source material

Additionally they are giving a pure scouting report analysis, not going by Pro Bowls or anything like that. Dak slobberers may think QB winz are real, but that weird fantasy doesn’t play in these evaluations.
Top of tier 3 is fairly generous, all things considered. If Dak was drafted by say, the Cleveland Browns, he would be in the XFL right now and be Tier N/A (true of many QBs). A tier 2 guy can carry a team with help, and that’s not Dak. He’s just a dink and dunk guy.

 

[percyhoward]

Maybe but if Dak's production dips every time something goes wrong on offense (players hurt, players suspended, etc.) it's going to be hard to shake that perception.

Only if it happens often enough to affect things like wins and his individual numbers though. If the team averages two division titles every three years, and Prescott remains in the top 10 statistically, then his low points won't matter any more than any other player's.

 

[Diehardblues]

Additionally they are giving a pure scouting report analysis, not going by Pro Bowls or anything like that. Dak slobberers may think QB winz are real, but that weird fantasy doesn’t play in these evaluations.
Top of tier 3 is fairly generous, all things considered. If Dak was drafted by say, the Cleveland Browns, he would be in the XFL right now and be Tier N/A (true of many QBs). A tier 2 guy can carry a team with help, and that’s not Dak. He’s just a dink and dunk guy.

I’d agree with much of this. The kid does have some Moxy. We finally found a backup we can win some games with.

Too bad we fell head over heels with that winning streak. It changed our course in history. And still to be determined if it was the right decision.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

I think the confusion is between his actual passing ability and his ability to win games.

Daks success isn’t really parallel to his passing ability. I’d rank Dak as a lower tier passer but an upper tier winner.

The kid simply has the ability to overcome his weaknesses and win football games. It’s just a matter of taking it to the next level. Is he capable of that. Time will tell.

Imagine if his passing ability was parallel to his winning ability. We might already be hanging a banner. Just saying..

What good is a QB who has poor passing abilities?
Add to that a 30 million a year contract you have a formula for disaster!
Sorry bud but I prefer our QB to be great passers isn't that why there usually the most expensive player on any team?

P.S. Concerning winning please don't forget to thank Zeke,Coop.and the best offline and stud defense in the NFL!

 

[percyhoward]

I don't disagree with you, but I don't agree with those 55 that can somehow have no trouble listing Goff and Wentz above him, unless it's based solely on perception vs reality. And I take major issue if that's their motivation.

Players who were drafted late or who went undrafted always have more to prove.

 

[Diehardblues]

What good is a QB who has poor passing abilities?
Add to that a 30 million a year contract you have a formula for disaster!
Sorry bud but I prefer our QB to be great passers isn't that why there usually the most expensive player on any team?

P.S. Concerning winning please don't forget to thank Zeke,Coop.and the best offline and stud defense in the NFL!

If you can win with him. Then it’s enough. There are teams which have won Super Bowls with much less than Elite QB’s.

We’d all prefer an Elite and prolific passer. But that’s not the cards we were dealt anymore than an Elite and proven HC.

 

[gimmesix]

I think all of this criticism and praise is fair for right now. The truth is that is difficult to gauge where Dak belongs because he's been up and down the scale. After 2016, most would have had him at least at the top of tier 2. In 2017, he might have been lucky to be tier 3. Last year, he was tier 3 at best for part of the season and close to tier one the other part. (Yes, I know there are things that affected his play, but other quarterbacks also experience obstacles and either fluctuate like Dak or overcome them.)

Here's from the article:

On Dak, one of the voters said it is accuracy that is limiting him from one of the top two tiers:

“I just think when it comes down to it, his accuracy is going to limit him because those three to four throws a game you miss, they get you in the long run,” an offensive coordinator said.

Another stated that Prescott needs talent around him in order to be successful:

“I think he is the classic 3, a high 3, where he really needs people around him,” a GM said. “When they got the receiver, he was better. When the runner is rolling, he is better. Play-action is very important for him.”

One of the people that were surveyed complimented Dak’s durability and even said Prescott has “some ‘it’ factor”:

“He is sturdy, he is tough, he doesn’t get hurt,” a GM said. “He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The 3 needs the good run game and strong defense. I think that’s Dak.”

Prescott did receive some praise in this survey. A voter that, presumably, put Dak in Tier-2 said that he could see Prescott having the kind of the season this year that has people thinking he is borderline Tier-1:

“When they got Amari Cooper, he really ascended,” said the voter, a veteran personnel evaluator. “Throw in the O-line, the running back, they add (Randall) Cobb in the slot, and I think (Tier) 2 could be the low number. I could see them winning 12 or 13 games and having people come back next year saying, ‘Oh, maybe he is closer to a 1.’”

 

[Diehardblues]

I think all of this criticism and praise is fair for right now. The truth is that is difficult to gauge where Dak belongs because he's been up and down the scale. After 2016, most would have had him at least at the top of tier 2. In 2017, he might have been lucky to be tier 3. Last year, he was tier 3 at best for part of the season and close to tier one the other part. (Yes, I know there are things that affected his play, but other quarterbacks also experience obstacles and either fluctuate like Dak or overcome them.)

Here's from the article:

On Dak, one of the voters said it is accuracy that is limiting him from one of the top two tiers:

“I just think when it comes down to it, his accuracy is going to limit him because those three to four throws a game you miss, they get you in the long run,” an offensive coordinator said.

Another stated that Prescott needs talent around him in order to be successful:

“I think he is the classic 3, a high 3, where he really needs people around him,” a GM said. “When they got the receiver, he was better. When the runner is rolling, he is better. Play-action is very important for him.”

One of the people that were surveyed complimented Dak’s durability and even said Prescott has “some ‘it’ factor”:

“He is sturdy, he is tough, he doesn’t get hurt,” a GM said. “He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The 3 needs the good run game and strong defense. I think that’s Dak.”

Prescott did receive some praise in this survey. A voter that, presumably, put Dak in Tier-2 said that he could see Prescott having the kind of the season this year that has people thinking he is borderline Tier-1:

“When they got Amari Cooper, he really ascended,” said the voter, a veteran personnel evaluator. “Throw in the O-line, the running back, they add (Randall) Cobb in the slot, and I think (Tier) 2 could be the low number. I could see them winning 12 or 13 games and having people come back next year saying, ‘Oh, maybe he is closer to a 1.’”

And that supports how much winning fits into the equation.

Without the Winning Wave in 2016 his passing ability alone wouldn’t have won him the position over Romo.

He can throw turd bombs out there but if the kid helps you win ballgames in the end is all that matters even if his weaknesses make it tougher. It’s a bottom line business. Just win!!

 

[Stash]

Players who were drafted late or who went undrafted always have more to prove.

And in the three years all three players have been in the league, Prescott has done that. If these GM's are holding on to the fact that they all passed on him, their motivations are driven by ego, not reality.

 

[Diehardblues]

I can’t imagine any GM even after witnessing the last 3 years who would take Prescott over Goff or Wentz.

 

[Playmaker247]

I think all of this criticism and praise is fair for right now. The truth is that is difficult to gauge where Dak belongs because he's been up and down the scale. After 2016, most would have had him at least at the top of tier 2. In 2017, he might have been lucky to be tier 3. Last year, he was tier 3 at best for part of the season and close to tier one the other part. (Yes, I know there are things that affected his play, but other quarterbacks also experience obstacles and either fluctuate like Dak or overcome them.)

Here's from the article:

On Dak, one of the voters said it is accuracy that is limiting him from one of the top two tiers:

“I just think when it comes down to it, his accuracy is going to limit him because those three to four throws a game you miss, they get you in the long run,” an offensive coordinator said.

Another stated that Prescott needs talent around him in order to be successful:

“I think he is the classic 3, a high 3, where he really needs people around him,” a GM said. “When they got the receiver, he was better. When the runner is rolling, he is better. Play-action is very important for him.”

One of the people that were surveyed complimented Dak’s durability and even said Prescott has “some ‘it’ factor”:

“He is sturdy, he is tough, he doesn’t get hurt,” a GM said. “He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The 3 needs the good run game and strong defense. I think that’s Dak.”

Prescott did receive some praise in this survey. A voter that, presumably, put Dak in Tier-2 said that he could see Prescott having the kind of the season this year that has people thinking he is borderline Tier-1:

“When they got Amari Cooper, he really ascended,” said the voter, a veteran personnel evaluator. “Throw in the O-line, the running back, they add (Randall) Cobb in the slot, and I think (Tier) 2 could be the low number. I could see them winning 12 or 13 games and having people come back next year saying, ‘Oh, maybe he is closer to a 1.’”

It’s funny how people down play Dak because “talent” around him like that same logic doesn’t apply to 95% of starting QB’s. There’s only like 3 or 4 QB’s that can win without much talent. Everyone else needs talent around them so let’s stop acting like Dak is the only one.