Drafting a first round QB

[Diehardblues]

It’s difficult to make these measurements because the success of these top draft picks often is influenced by the team they go to.

If they all went to the same situation the results would be much different.

How would Daks success been effected in Washington or Miami for example with lesser supporting casts.

I’d argue a top drafted QB would have much greater opportunity for success coming here than some of the bottom dweller teams top drafted QB’s often go to.

 

[Galian Beast]

No guarantee with drafting a QB, but you let the next coach decide what they want to do at that position.

 

[HungryLion]

It’s difficult to make these measurements because the success of these top draft picks often is influenced by the team they go to.

If they all went to the same situation the results would be much different.

How would Daks success been effected in Washington or Miami for example with lesser supporting casts.

I’d argue a top drafted QB would have much greater opportunity for success coming here than some of the bottom dweller teams top drafted QB’s often go to.

I’ve heard this argument plenty. There is merit to it.


It’s also an interesting one especially given the propensity some have to criticize the front office and Jerry or criticize the coaching staff. The front office and/or coaches suck, but at the same time are the reason for Dak’s success.

It’s rather vexing isn’t it.

 

[erod]

Most of those QBs were drafted by the worst teams in football.

Dak was drafted into championship level offensive personnel.

It matters.

If Dak was drafted by the Jets or Browns, he'd already be on his third team by now.

 

[HungryLion]

Most of those QBs were drafted by the worst teams in football.

Dak was drafted into championship level offensive personnel.

It matters.

If Dak was drafted by the Jets or Browns, he'd already be on his third team by now.

Yeah it’s a dumb argument for multiple reasons we have been through before. very similar to the personnel that Romo had in 2014. The same Romo you claim never had help.


Thanks for stopping by though.

I guess we are foolish enough to believe that every team in the league doesn’t scout NFL players and a lot of these guys didnt get opportunities with multiple teams.

 

[Galian Beast]

It’s difficult to make these measurements because the success of these top draft picks often is influenced by the team they go to.

If they all went to the same situation the results would be much different.

Hiw would Daks success been effected in Washington or Miami for example with lesser supporting casts.

I’d argue a top drafted QB would have much greater opportunity for success coming here than some of the bottom dweller teams top drafted QB’s often go to.

Very much how Aaron Rodgers was able to have success. Fell very late to the Packers.

 

[doomsday9084]

I think Dak's biggest hater on this board would happily give him a 7 year vet min contract extension.

The reason why Dak's contract is an issue of contention is because its so dam big. I'll take one of the guys you marked as worse than Dak. Would you rather have Bridgewater and $30m of cap room or Dak?

Now, I realize that Dallas is really bad with money. Tank's contract sucks. Zeke's contract sucks. They might take that $30m and burn it. That said, if the Cowboys were actually responsible with capspace, $30m a year is a lot of cheddar. Beyond that, the long term commitment in guaranteed money can also be a killer. We already saw what Romo's contract did to the Cowboys.

If you are a Cowboys fan, you may want Dak extended or you may not depending on what you think of him. That said, you absolutely want it to be for the smallest amount possible. If you want Dak to get a huge contract, are you a Cowboys fan or a Dak fan?

 

[HungryLion]

For those who are saying “it’s the team who drafted them”.

Yes, supporting cast matters.

At the same time. NFL teams invest a lot of time and money into scouting NFL players across the league. And most of these QB’s who failed, had opportunities on multiple teams in the league before washing out.

 

[HungryLion]

I think Dak's biggest hater on this board would happily give him a 7 year vet min contract extension.

The reason why Dak's contract is an issue of contention is because its so dam big. I'll take one of the guys you marked as worse than Dak. Would you rather have Bridgewater and $30m of cap room or Dak?

Now, I realize that Dallas is really bad with money. Tank's contract sucks. Zeke's contract sucks. They might take that $30m and burn it. That said, if the Cowboys were actually responsible with capspace, $30m a year is a lot of cheddar. Beyond that, the long term commitment in guaranteed money can also be a killer. We already saw what Romo's contract did to the Cowboys.

If you are a Cowboys fan, you may want Dak extended or you may not depending on what you think of him. That said, you absolutely want it to be for the smallest amount possible. If you want Dak to get a huge contract, are you a Cowboys fan or a Dak fan?

Your false option isn’t realistic. If Bridgewater were on the open market he doesn’t make 30 million less than Dak IMO.

 

[CWR]

I’ve heard this argument plenty. There is merit to it.


It’s also an interesting one especially given the propensity some have to criticize the front office and Jerry or criticize the coaching staff. The front office and/or coaches suck, but at the same time are the reason for Dak’s success.

It’s rather vexing isn’t it.

True, the front office and the coaches are garbage until its about how great of a job they've done putting Dak in a position to succeed.

 

[mattjames2010]

"It's too hard to find a franchise QB. But we can win with a middling QB, we just have to find 4-5 stud defensive players in the draft and FA and have an elite defense to help carry our middling QB"

We getting a new GM any time soon?

 

[HungryLion]

True, the front office and the coaches are garbage until its about how great of a job they've done putting Dak in a position to succeed.

I call it Schrodinger’s front office.

they are horrible and can’t be trusted to do the right thing with deciding to extend Dak or not.
Yet so good that they are the main reason for Dak’s success.

 

[Diehardblues]

Very much how Aaron Rodgers was able to have success. Fell very late to the Packers.

Mahomes In KC. Brady in NE. The list goes on.

And most of the bust went to Dormant teams.

Most of the highest drafted QB’s go to bottom dwellers and why they bust at a higher margin.

 

[HungryLion]

Let’s also remember that if the cowboys use draft picks to get a QB. That also potentially weakens the supporting cast they can keep around the QB. Just like using cap space does.

if they take a bust QB. Then the great supporting cast we have, wastes prime years of their career playing with a bust QB and by the time you draft another one, many aren’t on the team anymore or they are old.

 

[HungryLion]

Mahomes In KC. Brady in NE. The list goes on.

And most of the bust went to Dormant teams.

Most of the highest drafted QB’s go to bottom dwellers and why they bust at a higher margin.

So then the honest question has to be asked.

If it’s just as much about the organization around the QB and the supporting cast. Does that make using a bunch of draft capital to replace the QB a wise decision, or is it better spent improving the rest of the team?

I also have to point out that you are no stranger to ripping the GM every chance you get. You’re Not exactly a strong proponent for how well run the cowboys organization is.

can the GM be trusted to use high draft capital to target and select the right QB?

 

[Bobhaze]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Good post. You show clearly that having an early first round pick is no guarantee of anything. And I’m of the opinion that Dak is much better than too many on these boards believe. Especially those that act as if all we need to do is go pick the first round QB tree to have an upgrade.

Ask Tenn and Chi how that’s worked out lately having an early pick on a QB. The jury’s still out on #1 pick in last years draft, Baker Mayfield, who acts like he’s a high school sophomore rather than a team leader. I don’t understand why so many fans think because Dak isn’t “elite”, he’s not worth keeping. It’s crazy.

I don’t agree that DeSaun Watson or Matt Ryan are better than Dak- especially Watson. He’s had flashes but he’s more fragile than Dak and he’s certainly accomplished less than Dak.

Anyway, good post. Dak may not be an elite future HOFer, but we can win with this guy. And more importantly, we could do a lot worse.

 

[Diehardblues]

So then the honest question has to be asked.

If it’s just as much about the organization around the QB and the supporting cast. Does that make using a bunch of draft capital to replace the QB a wise decision, or is it better spent improving the rest of the team?

I also have to point out that you are no stranger to ripping the GM every chance you get. You’re Not exactly a strong proponent for how well run the cowboys organization is.

True and why I have called our franchise talent dependent.

I believe the greater talent we have in key positions the greater our chances are.

We’ve seen time and time again this era how when injuries set in to key positions or released we are decimated.

We have shown the ability to draft better in first rounds this era overall especially on offense. While we’ve missed on several counts defensively.

 

[big dog cowboy]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Very good OP!!!

 

[Diehardblues]

IMO it’s a poor argument to say using a first round pick is too risky to take. It’s the risk every team must take at some point. We see teams do it time and time again often giving up several picks to move up. Unless they get lucky.

I had hope for years we’d finally get that opportunity.

 

[HungryLion]

IMO it’s a poor argument to say using a first round pick is too risky to take. It’s the risk every team must take at some point. We see teams do it time and time again often giving up several picks to move up. Unless they get lucky.

I had hope for years we’d finally get that opportunity.

I just want to be clear. In my OP I don’t actually say the Cowboys should not do it. I am just trying to paint a clear picture about what the chances of actually getting an elite QB are.

I would also argue. Most teams do not draft QB’s in the first round when they have a QB playing at the level Dak currently is. I would be willing to hear examples, but I believe the list is very small.