Drafting a first round QB

[Batman1980]

Jason Garrett is far more detrimental to the efforts of this team to reach the Super Bowl than Dak Prescott is. Just look up Jason's record without Tony or Dak and try to tell me he's a good HC.

 

[jnday]

Yes, everyone knows that drafting a quarterback is not easy business. As Bill Parcells used to say, you can't just pick up the phone and dial 1-800-QUARTERBACK. And what makes it worse is that the hit rate on 1st round picks for other positions is phenomenal, so if you used a high first on a QB that busts, you could have had a Pro Bowl player at another position.

Then, of course, once you draft a quarterback you need to groom him. Unless you find a generational quarterback like Peyton Manning, he won't be ready to play in year 1. Oh sure, you can play him in year 1, but he won't be ready. So you're burning valuable years of your franchise and wasting years of other players who may be in their prime.

Now that I've agreed with you, let me point out the obvious: Just because it's difficult, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We also know that the quarterback position is the most important position in the league. He is the only player on the field that touches the ball on every single offensive snap, so getting the right player here is essential.

The teams that have done this successfully are ones that gambled on multiple quarterbacks. There are so many examples, let me provide a few.

1) Everyone remembers Troy Aikman but the youngins here don't remember that Jimmy Johnson went out and also got Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft. He was fully prepared to go with whatever quarterback was better, and that is key. If you have a guy you drafted in the first round and another you drafted in the 4th, you have to play the better player regardless of where he was picked.

2) Another example that always sticks with me is Mark Brunell and Rob Johnson. Rob Johnson was selected 4th overall by the Jags, but the year before they had traded their 3rd and 5th round picks for Mark Brunell. Turns out Brunell was the better quarterback so they went with him and got rid of Johnson.

3) Bill Belichick. That's all that needs to be said. Even though he has had Tom Brady since 2000, that hasn't stopped him from drafting quality quarterbacks.

Anyway, my points are 1) Just because it's difficult, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try and 2) you should always be trying to upgrade the position; I like Dak Prescott, I want him here, but I see no reason not to find another quarterback as well. In the very worst case you found yourself a quality backup who can play if your QB1 goes down and becomes trade bait later.

I think it is totally ridiculous if you don’t try to improve any position because you fear that the pick won’t pan out, especially QB. It is the fear of success added to the Dak-love that has so many fans against attempting to upgrade that position. I thought the first step in building a great team is putting together the best players possible. It is gutless to settle for lesser players due to the fear of misevaluating possible players that would upgrade the roster.

 

[Batman1980]

I think it is totally ridiculous if you don’t try to improve any position because you fear that the pick won’t pan out, especially QB. It is the fear of success added to the Dak-love that has so many fans against attempting to upgrade that position. I thought the first step in building a great team is putting together the best players possible. It is gutless to settle for lesser players due to the fear of misevaluating possible players that would upgrade the roster.

Look over there, it's Jeff Heath!

 

[Nav22]

I think it is totally ridiculous if you don’t try to improve any position because you fear that the pick won’t pan out, especially QB. It is the fear of success added to the Dak-love that has so many fans against attempting to upgrade that position. I thought the first step in building a great team is putting together the best players possible. It is gutless to settle for lesser players due to the fear of misevaluating possible players that would upgrade the roster.

Says the know-nothing clown who said Colt McCoy and Tyrod Taylor are just as good as Dak.

The same Dak whose team is in 1st place (yet again), whose QBR is #1 in the NFL and whose passer rating is #8 in the NFL.

Dak has taken a MASSIVE **** on your face and has thoroughly ruined this era of Cowboys football for you. You’re his little *****.

 

[jaythecowboy]

I think Dak's biggest hater on this board would happily give him a 7 year vet min contract extension.

The reason why Dak's contract is an issue of contention is because its so dam big. I'll take one of the guys you marked as worse than Dak. Would you rather have Bridgewater and $30m of cap room or Dak?

Now, I realize that Dallas is really bad with money. Tank's contract sucks. Zeke's contract sucks. They might take that $30m and burn it. That said, if the Cowboys were actually responsible with capspace, $30m a year is a lot of cheddar. Beyond that, the long term commitment in guaranteed money can also be a killer. We already saw what Romo's contract did to the Cowboys.

If you are a Cowboys fan, you may want Dak extended or you may not depending on what you think of him. That said, you absolutely want it to be for the smallest amount possible. If you want Dak to get a huge contract, are you a Cowboys fan or a Dak fan?

There were just reports that Bridgewater could get $20-$30 million lol.

 

[jaythecowboy]

I think it would be a huge mismanagement of draft capital to franchise Dak and still use a first round pick on a qb. Franchising Dak instantly drops $33 million on your salay cap. The whole reason people don't want to pay Dak is that it will hinder the supporting cast, but the franchise tag would get pieces removed immediately . A longterm deal allows you to have Dak's salary gradually increase as the salary cap goes up.

Also, I would rather use that draft capital to fill holes on the team. Let's get a better safety. There are corners to replace as well. They will need a longterm replacement for Quinn and Crawford.

Not to mention, I trust the front office more to draft those surrounding pieces than I do a franchise qb since they basically lucked into Romo and Dak. They had four years to develop a guy behind Dak and the best they did was Cooper Rush. Not saying I wouldn't spend a pick on a developmental qb, but not a 1st or 2nd.

 

[Pompey-Cowboy]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Great post. I haven't bothered reading any of the replies but I hope most would be positive and in agreement.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Says the know-nothing clown who said Colt McCoy and Tyrod Taylor are just as good as Dak.

The same Dak whose team is in 1st place (yet again), whose QBR is #1 in the NFL and whose passer rating is #8 in the NFL.

Dak has taken a MASSIVE **** on your face and has thoroughly ruined this era of Cowboys football for you. You’re his little *****.

Yep, you put Colt and Tyrod under center for our Cowboys and pretty much get the same or better offense as Dak. Tyrod might be an edge better as at least he isn't scared of throwing it downfield...

Imagine Dak on the Bengals or Skins tell us now how those teams would be better?
Exactly......bye, for now, Mr. Personality.....and pray that Zeke can carry us thru the following difficult weeks ahead.

 

[Nav22]

Yep, you put Colt and Tyrod under center for our Cowboys and pretty much get the same or better offense as Dak. Tyrod might be an edge better as at least he isn't scared of throwing it downfield...

Imagine Dak on the Bengals or Skins tell us now how those teams would be better?
Exactly......bye, for now, Mr. Personality.....and pray that Zeke can carry us thru the following difficult weeks ahead.

LOL. Dak’s among the league leaders in air yards per attempt, you JOKE.

 

[ghst187]

Remember the years between Aikman and Romo....those were dark days.

In the league as it works now, either you have a QB and you have a chance, or you don’t and you don’t. There’s a good reason QBs like Winston, Fitz, Dalton, and many more still have jobs even starting...it’s really really hard to find a good QB and even harder to find a great one.
As the OP shows, many MANY of the recent drafts don’t even have good QBs in them, let alone great ones. Dak is fine. We can win with him. It’s not him holding the team back, in fact it’s not players at all.

 

[InTheZone]

Another thing to consider is the makeup of this team. Could we continue building strong support around the QB if we do draft one. Will we be able to fix some glaring issues once Dak gets paid? We know Dak plays well most of the time when everything lines up perfectly, but you get the complete opposite when a defense punches back.

So what do we do? Pay the guy and take a chance we can continue with great talent around the QB because if it doesn't pan out we just dug ourselves a major hole. Draft a guy and he's average but at least we have the cap to not be cheap if it doesn't work out.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

LOL. Dak’s among the league leaders in air yards per attempt, you JOKE.

In (Photo) Time....or against bottom 5 defenses!

 

[InTheZone]

Remember the years between Aikman and Romo....those were dark days.

In the league as it works now, either you have a QB and you have a chance, or you don’t and you don’t. There’s a good reason QBs like Winston, Fitz, Dalton, and many more still have jobs even starting...it’s really really hard to find a good QB and even harder to find a great one.
As the OP shows, many MANY of the recent drafts don’t even have good QBs in them, let alone great ones. Dak is fine. We can win with him. It’s not him holding the team back, in fact it’s not players at all.

Sorry, but I disagree 100%. Team effort and yes the players have their part in this.

 

[Ranched]

Jerry has taken forever to finally draft a qb. We have a good one & he's better than Wintzie. Not even a topic anymore being it won't happen for years to come.
PAY THE MAN!

Lol, we need a backup, not a starter.

 

[ghst187]

Sorry, but I disagree 100%. Team effort and yes the players have their part in this.

Agree to disagree, when you get beat year in and year out in playoff games by teams with inferior talent and generally underachieve....you have a coaching problem not a player problem.

 

[InTheZone]

Agree to disagree, when you get beat year in and year out in playoff games by teams with inferior talent and generally underachieve....you have a coaching problem not a player problem.

yes we can agree there's a coaching problem. But that doesn't excuse the performance of some players.

 

[Bullflop]

Jerry has taken forever to finally draft a qb. We have a good one & he's better than Wintzie. Not even a topic anymore being it won't happen for years to come.
PAY THE MAN!

Lol, we need a backup, not a starter.

So true and on that note, I wouldn't mind drafting one in a middle or later round to get one a bit better than Rush.

 

[Established1971]

I wouldn’t even say Cam, Ryan and Luck are better. Not to me anyway. But I get your point. I like how people assume you can find another one when everyone else sucks at it except I guess the Pats. They seem to find them without a first.

Luck was better, thats not even arguable

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Luck was better, thats not even arguable

Oh it’s arguable for sure. Now you can say his best years trump Dak’s best years but Luck had some stinkers and his year last year was overrated. Not only that but he just retired during his prime. Brissett is having just as good of a year.

 

[doomsday9084]

Your false option isn’t realistic. If Bridgewater were on the open market he doesn’t make 30 million less than Dak IMO.

Ahhh, shifting the goal posts. Your thread is about dumping Dak and using a first round pick on a QB. Obviously, that means that Dallas would have that QB on his rookie contract for several years. You showed the quality level of the QB's. I picked one and gave a hypothetical. If you had a Bridgewater on his rookie deal for several years, would it be better than having Dak on his extension?

I would argue that more than 50% of the QB's on your list would be better for Dallas on their rookie deal than Dak at $35m or so.

There was no talk about signing another QB.

The stats have been posted before. The vast majority of QB's to win the superbowl in the past 20 years or so were either on their rookie deal or giving the team a discount (Brady). QB's on fair market value contracts don't win super bowls very much. Again, if you are a Cowboys fan, you don't want Dak to make a fair market value contract because historically, it virtually guarantees that the team will never win a super bowl with him.