Twitter: Dak's stats vs Top 5 Scoring defenses

[Pantone282C]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not putting Dak down. I just don't think stats like these are the end all, be all of QB quality. There are a lot of factors that go into the outcomes of every game, and these stats don't reflect things like, how our offensive players matched up with their defenses, injuries to those defenses at the time we played them, how well their offenses played and ToP, or even the simple "any given Sunday" phenomenon.

I like Dak just fine, and I'm liking him more this year than any before, but just about any set of stats can be incredibly deceiving.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

 

[Runwildboys]

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

 

[big dog cowboy]

 

[Batman1980]

 

[Starforever]

Of course. That’s the driving force in the Media and fan forums as such. Selecting facts or formulating data to spin or support a narrative. Also called fake news. Instead of presenting or reporting the facts and let us decipher and draw our own conclusions without influence.

And these stats you provided disputes the narrative that was being presented in thisq thread. Well done!

Does not dispute, it just adds additional information for clarification.

 

[Diehardblues]

Does not dispute, it just adds additional information for clarification.

It definitely waters it down. I’ll let others decide how big of hosing it is. Lol

 

[Starforever]

It definitely waters it down. I’ll let others decide how big of hosing it is. Lol

I wouldn't stick out my chest if I were you, none of these new found stats will change Daks status on the team.

 

[Diehardblues]

I wouldn't stick out my chest if I were you, none of these new found stats will change Daks status on the team.

Of course not. And wasn’t my intention

 

[Hadenough]

Don't know where you're getting your separation numbers, but Dak leads the NFL in Completion Percentage Over Expectation. That's a stat based on receiver separation, QB pressures, and depth of target. It's a 100% objective measure, as it comes from chip data -- no opinions included. His protection has been good for the most part, so for him to lead the league in this stat, that means he's throwing deeper passes than the norm, into tighter windows than the norm.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

If you watch the games you can tell how much separation the WR gets. The reason these stats dont tell the truth is when these players are catching the ball it's usually behind them and its making it a much.more difficult catch and the defender has closed the gap making it look like n it's a tight window. No stats will ever get me to believe Dak is a tight window thrower. Just watch him inside the redzone he rarely throws slants into tight windows or hits his WR in the back of the end zone through traffic on a crossing route.

 

[percyhoward]

If you watch the games you can tell how much separation the WR gets. The reason these stats dont tell the truth is when these players are catching the ball it's usually behind them and its making it a much.more difficult catch and the defender has closed the gap making it look like n it's a tight window.

The "late throw" theory really only explains why a QB would have more tight window attempts. It doesn't explain why he would complete more of them than anyone else though. Are you saying Dak is consistently late and consistently accurate? Would be strange.

"Watch the games?" We're talking about a set of data gathered from chips worn by players...in the games.

 

[HungryLion]

Of course. That’s the driving force in the Media and fan forums as such. Selecting facts or formulating data to spin or support a narrative. Also called fake news. Instead of presenting or reporting the facts and let us decipher and draw our own conclusions without influence.

And these stats you provided disputes the narrative that was being presented in this thread. Well done!

that’s funny because plenty of people around here disregard basic facts like passer rating since he has been in the league, etc.

But let’s pretend like the only ones being dishonest are the ones presenting the numbers.

 

[HungryLion]

If you watch the games you can tell how much separation the WR gets. The reason these stats dont tell the truth is when these players are catching the ball it's usually behind them and its making it a much.more difficult catch and the defender has closed the gap making it look like n it's a tight window. No stats will ever get me to believe Dak is a tight window thrower. Just watch him inside the redzone he rarely throws slants into tight windows or hits his WR in the back of the end zone through traffic on a crossing route.

Yeah when you say stuff like “usually” behind them and insinuate it’s only because the throw is late, let’s make it clear that’s just a bunch of stuff you’re making up and has no basis in reality.

 

[HungryLion]

Don't know where you're getting your separation numbers, but Dak leads the NFL in Completion Percentage Over Expectation. That's a stat based on receiver separation, QB pressures, and depth of target. It's a 100% objective measure, as it comes from chip data -- no opinions included. His protection has been good for the most part, so for him to lead the league in this stat, that means he's throwing deeper passes than the norm, into tighter windows than the norm.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

he isn’t getting his seperation numbers from anywhere. He fabricated them. He made them up out of thin air. He is throwing crap at the wall and hoping it sticks.

 

[WillieBeamen]

he isn’t getting his seperation numbers from anywhere. He fabricated them. He made them up out of thin air. He is throwing crap at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Hes right tho

 

[GMO415]

Impressive

 

[Blue&Silver]

Was that this year? Wasn't Green Bay, And the Saints top 5 defenses when we played them?

 

[black label]

 

[percyhoward]

Not sure when these defenses were actually "top 5." He could be basing it on the defense's league ranking at the time they played the Cowboys. He should be basing it on their ranking at the end of the season, when there's been a large enough sample of games played. Also, he's talking about total defense -- not pass defense. Against elite pass defenses, Dak has struggled.

Prescott rating differential -21.0
vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses (6 games)
111 of 187 (59%) 1180 yd (6.3 ypa) 6 td 5 int 77.4

vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses (44 games)
929 of 1394 (67%) 10464 yd (7.5 ypa) 66 td 21 int 98.4

The above doesn't include 2019 games because we don't know which pass defenses will finish in the Top 5 yet.

It should be noted that Romo had a 74.7 rating in his first 6 games against Top 5 pass defenses. Aikman had a 68.5 rating in 6 games against Top 5 pass defenses during his first two Pro Bowl seasons (1991-92). In other words, it's common for young QB to struggle against the best pass defenses -- even good young QB.

 

[HungryLion]

Hes right tho

he’s not tho

the idea that Dak only throws to wide open receivers and doesn’t throw into tight coverage is just not based in reality.

 

[WillieBeamen]

he’s not tho

the idea that Dak only throws to wide open receivers and doesn’t throw into tight coverage is just not based in reality.

He didnt say this

The idea that Dak is an elite tight window thrower as stats may suggest is not based in reality either.

There is a reason he doesnt throw as many TDs as his counterparts and chooses to run it in...