Peter King nuggets on Dak

Risen Star said:

Did you just compare Dak Prescott to Troy Aikman?

I'm not saying you shouldn't want great players everywhere but in this salary cap league you simply can't pay everyone. You can pay even less if you're giving your bus driver QB who needs stars around him 30 million of cap space.

So if the Cowboys were going to make the huge commitment of spending 30 million a year on a long term deal for a QB it should come with the luxury of not needing to resign their WR to top money and their RB to the richest deal in the history of the position. If that QB is worth that money he shouldn't need an all star squad that's not realistic under the cap. You shouldn't be handing out a contract like that and then looking to overcome his shortcomings. If he's got those shortcomings why the hell are you paying him 30 million a year?

It'll be the worst contract in the history of the league the moment it's signed. A QB who can't throw an out route. 30 million per. An abomination of epic proportions.

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This post is nothing but garbage. How many QB's won a SB without a great supporting cast? it seldom happens. Dak has the numbers to back up what he's about to get paid. This team is just fortunate to have a triple threat in Zeke, Amari and Dak. We probably won't be able to keep all three for an extended period of time anyway.........

Sydla said:

Not quite. And why do you keep saying that I said he doesn't deserve market value? I never said that. I said I'd wait a year to determine what his market value is. You may think that's splitting hairs, but it's not.

Waiting a year does raise the price.............. if he plays well. If he goes out and repeats the 2017 season, for example, guess what? You probably shouldn't be paying him $150MM over 5 years to begin with.

And that's the point. I am perfectly content paying him more next year knowing he had a great year and is trending the right way. There's really only one way you come out of this looking bad here...................... you pay him a huge contract now and he goes out and plays like an average QB in 2019.

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There's nothing to suggest he will play worse. Waiting until next year, even if you're not sold and he plays at least as good - his market value will still be higher.
He has played well every season.

Why would you not want to pay him now

Sydla said:

I see four potential outcomes here:

1) You sign Dak to a long term deal, he plays really well and justifies the contract and you may look like you got a bargain rate.

2) You sign Dak to a long term deal, he plays much like he did in 2017 and you are staring at the possibility you just paid $150MM or so to a QB who is inconsistent, at best.

3) You wait a year, Dak plays well, you have to pay a premium but you are more confident that you are getting an almost, or elite, QB. Or you tag him if you can't work out a deal.

4) You wait a year, Dak doesn't play well, you save yourself from locking him into a massive contract and you can tag him as a carryover for a year or two while you look for a long term option at QB.

Of the 4, which is the worst outcome?

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2) - Why 2017 specifically?

Hawkeye0202 said:

5. I think the Dallas Cowboys should take a deep breath and sign Dak Prescott—five years, $150 milion ($90 million guaranteed) sounds about correct—before he plays well enough this year to push him into Russell Wilson land. Prescott’s not a top-five quarterback, but you absolutely can win with him, and he can play well enough in and out of the pocket to be competitive in the biggest games on the schedule. And he is a very good face of the franchise, eminently trustworthy and a good leader. For those who swear he’s not worth it, ask yourself this question: What is the alternative, and are you willing to let Prescott walk away while the Cowboys go the draft-and-develop route in the near future?


Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. (Getty Images)
6. I think some Cowboys fans would like, in part because of the financial sanity, the advantage to having a rookie quarterback not chew up your cap. But let’s look at the first-round quarterbacks in the most recent seven drafts, and let’s see how many are better than Prescott.

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It's a fundamental mistake to compare Dak to recent rookies. It's not the relevant comparison.

Try comparing
Dak
vs.
Rookie QB + 30mil in cap per year and a 100mil guaranteed.

Churn running QBs. We have the team for it, *as demonstrated by Dak*. 30 mil is two more high very high quality players.

Running QB + Cooper + Zeke
vs.
Dak

Which one do you like more? By a little, or a lot?

Little Jr said:

And no where has any one said, you pay Dak now 30m because in 2-3 years he won't have top 3-5 contract as the REASON you do it. People use the 2-3 years down the road to try to explain to people, who obviously think this will be the first time that a player not in the top 5 gets top 5 money, that's how it works and how it ALWAYS has worked.


As far as the return on the contracts that I mentioned, what returns are we talking about ?

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Actually people have said just that.

Corso said:

Always good to see this dude.
Shup!

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Hey man, I love you too

Streetwise said:

There's nothing to suggest he will play worse. Waiting until next year, even if you're not sold and he plays at least as good - his market value will still be higher.
He has played well every season.

Why would you not want to pay him now

2) - Why 2017 specifically?

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To answer the last part, 2017 was his worst year. If he repeats that season or comes close to that, it would give him two mediocre years and two good years out of four. Hardly the track record of a great QB.

And no, he has not played well every year.

And it’s clear why I would not pay him now. His best year was three years ago, he was mediocre in 2017 and improved in 2018. I am not as confident as you that he’s just going to kill it in 2019.

I’d rather be sure than get caught with my pants down having overpaid for a QB who turns out to be no better than a fringe top 12 ish QB.

Cowfan75 said:

He suggests Dak will mimic Russell Wilson and then says he's not a top 5 QB.

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Exactly. If he plays like Wilson this year than pay him. I want him to do well this year. People are afraid he will and we'll have to pay him more.

JJHLH1 said:

$150 million for 5 years is a good deal for both parties. Better to sign Dak now because the QB market is going to explode next offseason when the Chiefs resign Mahommes.

King made a mistake when he said Goff, Watson, Newton and Wentz are better than Dak though.

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They are better than Dak.

gjkoeppen said:

Since you have a little problem understanding what is written I'll try to help. AT THIS TIME, meaning Prescott's 1st 3 seasons he's not been a top 5 QB, but King thinks that THIS season he can have the type of season that could put him in the Wilson range.
.

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Nnnnno, that's pretty much what I read and understood. Thanks for jumping in though, sport!

Roadtrip635 said:

We're supposed to get that simple to find "elite" QB in the draft but in the same breathe point out how poor a judge of QBs JJ has been?

The draft doesn't guarantee you an "elite" QB, it doesn't guarantee he will be that much more of an improvement, it doesn't even guarantee he will be a viable starter. 2-3 a year may become starters, but not better than Dak and definitely not that become elite or your definition of elite is way off. Even as the article points out in 7 years and 20 1st round picks only 6 of them may be an improvement and I'm not sold that Cam would be, so 5 of 20. So that's a 25% success rate, even with every QB at your disposal, that's less than 1 a year that would be an "improvement". Every time you miss with a 1st round pick, it sets you back 4-5 years and use resources to improve the rest of your team.

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Doom doom doom. Why even bother with that attitude. I'd prefer a 25% success rate to a 0% success rate.

DuncanIso said:

I remember 2017 and starting 3-5 in 2018.

Yup. 3-5.

He's not an elite QB.

Have you forgotten already?!?

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I wrote the original post.....is this your attempt to try to be right? And ignore that Dak was the best QB in the NFC the second half of last season?

csirl said:

Doom doom doom. Why even bother with that attitude. I'd prefer a 25% success rate to a 0% success rate.

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It's not doom it's realistic, this isn't Madden. It was 25% only if you could pick every 1st rd QB, out of 7 years only 5 would have been an improvement, which means there will be years that there is 0 QBs that would be worth the pick and risk. Since as you said, JJ is not good at evaluating QBs, it makes matters even worse. Too many delusional fans seem to think it's just that easy to just draft an elite QB, much less find an improvement on the current one.

Browns have been searching for decades since Kosar, Miami decades since Marino, Bills decades since Kelly. Have the Texans ever had a QB better than Dak before Watson, it sure wasn't Schaub. What about Mahomes and the Chiefs.... Alex Smith wasn't any better than Dak and before that, have to go back to a couple good years from Montana in the mid '90's? Washington just got Haskins, who knows how he'll turn out, but they did get a a few years of RG3 and Cousins, hard to think of that as a success since they're both already gone. Seahawks got Wilson, didn't take them long, just since Hasselbeck, Kitna, Mirer, Krieg? Rams got Goff, it didn't take them long to find him if you consider Bradford a success. Bears found Mitch who isn't as good, but didn't take them long if you think Cutler or Grossman were elite QBs. Point is teams don't willingly put themselves in a QB draft lottery when they have success and win games with their current starter.

You have two young WR's, a young RB. An old man at TE that can hopefully still contribute. And a fairly young OL that has some top spots in their respective positions. A young , up and coming defense that should only be better.

So, let's see that they waste all the talent and time around them and start over at QB.

Yea, cause that makes sense.

Pay the man, and, hopefully the others will fall into place.

depending on the game you grade, Dak's throws that are graded "highly inaccurate" are generally in the 32% - 37% range. That is horrible. I can't imagine the elite QB's being more than 10%. Probably less on the majority of days.

Those are drive killers. Flush the collective talent down the crapper kinda thing. Not a system issue, not a receiver issue, not an oline issue. Before the folks who want to label everything "hate" jump in, this is simply reviewing & grading Dak's actual passing performance for the last two seasons. I get that he does have other qualities but let's be clear, they DO NOT overcome that deficiency.

It makes no sense to pay the guy this year. If you do re-sign him, it is insanity to pay him anything more than one of the lower tier values for QB's.

It is double insanity to commit to any QB who is less than elite when the entire coaching staff may very well get blown up at the end of this season.

McKDaddy said:

depending on the game you grade, Dak's throws that are graded "highly inaccurate" are generally in the 32% - 37% range. That is horrible. I can't imagine the elite QB's being more than 10%. Probably less on the majority of days.

Those are drive killers. Flush the collective talent down the crapper kinda thing. Not a system issue, not a receiver issue, not an oline issue. Before the folks who want to label everything "hate" jump in, this is simply reviewing & grading Dak's actual passing performance for the last two seasons. I get that he does have other qualities but let's be clear, they DO NOT overcome that deficiency.

It makes no sense to pay the guy this year. If you do re-sign him, it is insanity to pay him anything more than one of the lower tier values for QB's.

It is double insanity to commit to any QB who is less than elite when the entire coaching staff may very well get blown up at the end of this season.

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That's some dubious, (made up stats) you threw in there. Dak's completion percent was 67.7% so it clearly couldn't be 37% , unless you're using the "giving it 110%" type scale. So even if it was 32%, that would mean every single pass was either a completion or highly inaccurate, which of course isn't true either. It's either hate or you're really, really bad at math.

Roadtrip635 said:

That's some dubious, (made up stats) you threw in there. Dak's completion percent was 67.7% so it clearly couldn't be 37% , unless you're using the "giving it 110%" type scale. So even if it was 32%, that would mean every single pass was either a completion or highly inaccurate, which of course isn't true either. It's either hate or you're really, really bad at math.

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go read the articles for yourself. a hint for you is that categorizing his passes isn't synonymous with completion percentage. ie, you can still complete a horrible pass.

JJHLH1 said:

Rodgers has had back to back losing seasons so he clearly isn’t carrying his team.

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He was 4-3 in 2017...

I don’t like the word “nuggets”. Sounds like pooping.

Sydla said:

What's reasonable?

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Like everyone else I don;'t know what the Cowboys and Prescott will eventually agree to. I do know that Prescott has publicly said that they will get a deal that's fair for everyone. He does not strike me as the type of player that expects top 5 pay when he knows he's not achieved that yet.My guess it will end up at somewhere between 25 mil - 28 mill because Prescott will understand and agree that taking a contract like that will allow the Cowboys to keep the good players around him and increase his chances of reaching the Super Bowl.

Cowfan75 said:

Nnnnno, that's pretty much what I read and understood. Thanks for jumping in though, sport!

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If you understood that then why did you imply King was contradicting himself? I'll quote "He suggests Dak will mimic Russell Wilson and then says he's not a top 5 QB."

Pretty much show that you didn't understand it. sport!!!
.