Dak vs. other options

OmerV

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If we look at the majority of qb's who won SB aren't most of them top level qb's drafted in the first 3 rds with a few outliers thrown in? Seems you rather go for the outlier than whats been proven the most likely similarity between winning qb's for the most part.
It's true that most QBs that win the Super Bowl are drafted in the first few rounds, but that's true of most QBs who become starters even on their team at all. Ultimately draft status isn't the key marker after a few years in the NFL. At that point how the player actually performs in the NFL is the key. Surely you would agree that at this point being the 2nd overall pick in the draft doesn't mean Marcus Mariota is better than Dak Prescott.
 

Philmonroe

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It's true that most QBs that win the Super Bowl are drafted in the first few rounds, but that's true of most QBs who become starters even on their team at all. Ultimately draft status isn't the key marker after a few years in the NFL. At that point how the player actually performs in the NFL is the key. Surely you would agree that at this point being the 2nd overall pick in the draft doesn't mean Marcus Mariota is better than Dak Prescott.
Yeah I don't think Marcus is better than Dak but I don't think Dak is too much better either. Before Amari got here if we would've kept up playing how the first 8 games went I'm not even sure if Dak is the QB now. We were looking like we were about to have a top pick in the draft with Dak looking like hot garbage. Amari came and on some back to the future stuff history was changed.
 

aikemirv

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Who determines "worth"? The only way to determine that is the market. The market is paying QBs like this 25-30m or more a year.
It is not who, worth would be determined by percentage of Salary cap and what you contribute to winning!
 

OmerV

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Yeah I don't think Marcus is better than Dak but I don't think Dak is too much better either. Before Amari got here if we would've kept up playing how the first 8 games went I'm not even sure if Dak is the QB now. We were looking like we were about to have a top pick in the draft with Dak looking like hot garbage. Amari came and on some back to the future stuff history was changed.
Amari wasn't here in 2016 though, and the team went 13-3 and barely missed advancing to the NFC title game.
 

Philmonroe

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Amari wasn't here in 2016 though, and the team went 13-3 and barely missed advancing to the NFC title game.
Yeah have we been close to that since? Yeah outliers don't make me forget whats the overall norm but if they do for you ok cool.
 

OmerV

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Yeah have we been close to that since? Yeah outliers don't make me forget whats the overall norm but if they do for you ok cool.

You're the one that said Dak has played well with Cooper, which has been the last season and 1/2, so how is 2016 an outlier? Seems the 8 games before Cooper came last year is really the outlier.
 

garyo1954

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Amari wasn't here in 2016 though, and the team went 13-3 and barely missed advancing to the NFC title game.

That was our Dak's "perfect storm" year. Bill Parcell's explained it as "good coaching, help from his supporting cast, and opportunity."
 

OmerV

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That was our Dak's "perfect storm" year. Bill Parcell's explained it as "good coaching, help from his supporting cast, and opportunity."
It was a good situation, no doubt, but it also showed potential right away. After all, he was a rookie that played in college in a system that was not pro style. The fact the team hasn't done quite as well since isn't all on Dak.
 

garyo1954

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It was a good situation, no doubt, but it also showed potential right away. After all, he was a rookie that played in college in a system that was not pro style. The fact the team hasn't done quite as well since isn't all on Dak.

I agree. Dak hasn't had anyone pushing him to excel. Jerry fell in love with him. And now the FO is "trying to land that plane."

He has, as of yesterday and his scouting report when he was drafted. improved a little. He may have hit his ceiling without somebody who puts more on his plate than he's used too.
 

Hadenough

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I'm not going to talk about stats, because although Dak's season stats were huge, stats alone don't tell the story. For example, he was really somewhat below what his statistical ranking in yardage reflects. I want to consider championship capability - a much more difficult thing to rank than stats, but ultimately that's the goal.

As for championship level QB's, the proven guys are Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson. And Brady had a down year and both he and Brees are in their 40's. Then there is Mahomes, who hasn't yet won, but has talent above possibly any other QB, and who most feel is capable of winning the Super Bowl. Obviously most Cowboy fans would take him over Dak.

That's a grand total of 5 guys that are considered championship level QB's, and it took 20 years worth of drafts to have those guys at this point in time. They don't grow on trees.

Then what? Watson? Wentz? Cousins? Garoppolo? Ryan? You could make an argument for those guys over Dak, but you could make an argument for Dak too. When it comes to it, Dak falls somewhere in that group, and reasonable people can disagree on exactly where.

Which, at the end of the day, is pretty good company in terms of the hierarchy of NFL QB's. It's not Wilson or Rodgers level, but neither is it Mayfield or Winston level, and nowhere near Dalton and Darnold level.

My conclusion is that while I agree Dak still has questions to answer, and the decision on what the Cowboys should be willing to pay is a tough one, I think fans are unreasonably thinking in terms of the team absolutely having to have a Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Wilson/Mahomes level QB, and that's not realistic. You shoot for it, but do you shoot yourself in the foot blindly hoping for it?
The problem is if you dont have one of those five QBs mentioned then you better have a dam good defense to compensate. YOU cant build that defense if Dak is getting 30 + mil.
 

doomsday9084

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I think one myth that gets perpetuated is positional scarcity at the QB position. Years ago, the bottom third of starting QB's in the NFL were terrible. A huge handicap that their team could not overcome.

IMO, as the limits for QB's has opened the number of good candidates has drastically increased. A lot of people out there can really throw the football. I was watching the Detroit thanksgiving game and their 3rd string, random journeyman QB could really sling it. As such, a lot of these QB's are really a product of their situation as much as their talent. If you give a QB a good line, coach, receivers and some semblance of a running game, there are a LOT of guys that will look good.

Sure, the players like Mahomes are generational talents. Getting one is as much luck as it is planning. That said, players like Tannehill are easy to pick up in any given offseason. I strongly wonder if guys like Goff, Wentz, etc. are really worth $30m+ to their teams over a reasonable journeyman replacement. As evidence, Nick Foles won a SB for Wentz with their talent and coaching propping him up.

In the past 30 years, the Cowboys have gone from Aikman to Romo to Dak with only a short period of trouble. Even then, they picked up Bledsoe and Testaverde off the trash heap (mostly because Parcells had experience with them). The idea that Dallas is going to wander in the wilderness completely devoid of QB play if they move on from Dak is rather pessimistic.
 

Philmonroe

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You're the one that said Dak has played well with Cooper, which has been the last season and 1/2, so how is 2016 an outlier? Seems the 8 games before Cooper came last year is really the outlier.
Sir you’re trying to add all this stuff to mess up the point. I see you trying but my outlier comment was in response to the 13-3 record. I thought that was obvious like the other poster who replied based on that same wavelength as me. Guess it wasn’t so I’ll take the L for you not understanding what I was commenting on. Dak has been the same eh qb for his whole time here but I will always give him props for his 2016 season.
 

BoysForLife

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I'm not going to talk about stats, because although Dak's season stats were huge, stats alone don't tell the story. For example, he was really somewhat below what his statistical ranking in yardage reflects. I want to consider championship capability - a much more difficult thing to rank than stats, but ultimately that's the goal.

As for championship level QB's, the proven guys are Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Wilson. And Brady had a down year and both he and Brees are in their 40's. Then there is Mahomes, who hasn't yet won, but has talent above possibly any other QB, and who most feel is capable of winning the Super Bowl. Obviously most Cowboy fans would take him over Dak.

That's a grand total of 5 guys that are considered championship level QB's, and it took 20 years worth of drafts to have those guys at this point in time. They don't grow on trees.

Then what? Watson? Wentz? Cousins? Garoppolo? Ryan? You could make an argument for those guys over Dak, but you could make an argument for Dak too. When it comes to it, Dak falls somewhere in that group, and reasonable people can disagree on exactly where.

Which, at the end of the day, is pretty good company in terms of the hierarchy of NFL QB's. It's not Wilson or Rodgers level, but neither is it Mayfield or Winston level, and nowhere near Dalton and Darnold level.

My conclusion is that while I agree Dak still has questions to answer, and the decision on what the Cowboys should be willing to pay is a tough one, I think fans are unreasonably thinking in terms of the team absolutely having to have a Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Wilson/Mahomes level QB, and that's not realistic. You shoot for it, but do you shoot yourself in the foot blindly hoping for it?

I get the idea that Mahomes types don't grow on trees. I understand. But that's the perfect example for why you don't settle. The Chiefs had Alex Smith. Safe player. Took care of the ball. Smith's last year in KC (2017) --68% completions, 8.0 yards per attempt. 4100 yards. 26 TD. 5 INT. Compare that to Dak's 2019 (his best year ever): 65% completions, 8.2 yards per attempt. 4900 yards. 30 TD. 11 picks. Pretty close comparison there.
Smith better in completion percentage and interception avoidance. Dak better on yards. TD % virtually identical (Smith 5.1% throws were TD's, DAk 5.0% throws were TD)

Point being, those are pretty identical stat lines. And KC made the playoffs that year. They won their division at 10-6. They had a choice to make.

Do we settle for "good enough"? Or do we think we could do better.
We know what they chose, and we know how it worked out. Will it work out the same for us? Will it work out worse? Dare I dream, better? Can't say for sure.

What I can tell you is, if we pay $35-40 million a year for a guy who statistically in his best season performed pretty similarly to Alex Smith, then we get what we deserve. Double down on what we have now, because we are afraid of the possibility "doing worse" isn't a recipe for greatness. It's a recipe for ensured mediocrity in my opinoin. And I can't abide by that.
 

OmerV

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The problem is if you dont have one of those five QBs mentioned then you better have a dam good defense to compensate. YOU cant build that defense if Dak is getting 30 + mil.
It's all about the team as a whole. Obviously it would be foolish for a team to rely on a QB to carry it on its back because there are way to few QBs capable of that, so, the team needs to build everything up to give it a better chance.

As for whether the team can build that defense with Dak making $30+ million, if you don't pay him, then you are taking a chance on a low level veteran or a rookie, so that's not attractive either.

I really don't know if paying Dak and building the team is as impossible as some think anyway. To begin with, it's not as if big QB paydays are just a Cowboy thing. Other teams are going to have to compete while paying QBs big money too. And the salary cap # is going to be rising, so some room will open up. The key is really making the right choices that result in quality players within a budget.
 

stilltheguru

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We could very well see Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garrapolo in the Super Bowl.

Why pay Dak $175 million?
You say that like Jimmy G is getting paid minimum wage. And if Tannehill does go to the super bowl he also will be getting over 100 million so what are you saying?
 

OmerV

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I get the idea that Mahomes types don't grow on trees. I understand. But that's the perfect example for why you don't settle. The Chiefs had Alex Smith. Safe player. Took care of the ball. Smith's last year in KC (2017) --68% completions, 8.0 yards per attempt. 4100 yards. 26 TD. 5 INT. Compare that to Dak's 2019 (his best year ever): 65% completions, 8.2 yards per attempt. 4900 yards. 30 TD. 11 picks. Pretty close comparison there.
Smith better in completion percentage and interception avoidance. Dak better on yards. TD % virtually identical (Smith 5.1% throws were TD's, DAk 5.0% throws were TD)

Point being, those are pretty identical stat lines. And KC made the playoffs that year. They won their division at 10-6. They had a choice to make.

Do we settle for "good enough"? Or do we think we could do better.
We know what they chose, and we know how it worked out. Will it work out the same for us? Will it work out worse? Dare I dream, better? Can't say for sure.

What I can tell you is, if we pay $35-40 million a year for a guy who statistically in his best season performed pretty similarly to Alex Smith, then we get what we deserve. Double down on what we have now, because we are afraid of the possibility "doing worse" isn't a recipe for greatness. It's a recipe for ensured mediocrity in my opinoin. And I can't abide by that.

You are saying you understand Mahomes types don't grow on trees, but your entire discussion is based in finding a Mahomes type like KC did.

As for Alex Smith, remember they didn't drop him right away and go with Mahomes, and remember that Smith's age and history were also factors. Smith was an older QB who just had his first and only top season out of a 12 year career, but they kept him to see how things progressed with Mahomes before they threw Mahomes into the fire.

That said, I don't have a problem if the Cowboys find a QB they feel is almost a sure thing were to become available to them in the draft, but I don't think we can sit at a computer in January and assume that, and it would be pretty risky for the Cowboys to assume that.
 

erod

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You say that like Jimmy G is getting paid minimum wage. And if Tannehill does go to the super bowl he also will be getting over 100 million so what are you saying?
I'm saying, why would we pay Dak like he's Mahomes? Why not give him a deal like Jimmy G has or Tannehill is going to get? I'd rather have either of them over Dak.

Franchise tag, please.
 

buybuydandavis

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Tl;dr: Tag Dak and draft a rookie. Use 2020 for Dak like the Chiefs used Smith in 2017. If he fails to step up to the plate, go with the rookie and let Dak walk or see if he's willing to take a discount once he realizes the market for him isn't high.

Regardless of what you feel about Dak, I'd rather we spend an extra roster spot seeing if we can develop a QB. If you actually hit on a guy on his rookie contract, the value is immense. Too bad about Mike White, but we should keep those guys coming.
 

OmerV

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Regardless of what you feel about Dak, I'd rather we spend an extra roster spot seeing if we can develop a QB. If you actually hit on a guy on his rookie contract, the value is immense. Too bad about Mike White, but we should keep those guys coming.
I agree with this. We should always have a developmental QB in the works even if we love the QB we have.
 
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