2005 Showed Once Again WR in the First Is a Bad Idea

[joseephuss]

WR bust at a significantly higher rate than other positions drafted in the first round and 2005 was no exception. Here are the WR drafter in the first 32 picks of 2005 and after 3 years the vast majority of them have busted.

Braylon Edwards
Troy Williamson
Mike Williams
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Roddy White

Edwards turned it around and had one of the best seasons in the NFL last year but rest ranged from serviceable in Jones to outright horrible in Mike Williams.

And you guys thought the Carpenter pick was bad....

Now I realize that Wade has said this but I think it bears repeating that in no way shape or from should we use one of our first two selections on a WR.

I thought it was funny that you say Jones is serviceable. The guy is not getting better.

Any position is risky to draft in the 1st round. WR along with QB are the harder positions for a young guy to come in and have an immediate impact. Some guys have come in and immediately became big time contributors, but most take some adjustment time before they become key parts of their offense.

I don't think drafting a WR is ever a bad idea, but it is one of the more difficult positions to project. Just makes the job much harder.

Not this **** again. Fitzgerald, Williams, Williams and Evans send their regards from 2004.

Those guys probably came out higher rated than most other WRs in other drafts. I would not have passed on them in 2004, but I would have passed on a lot of the other names listed and felt so at the time of their respective drafts.

Out of the guys listed Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton and Roddy White I only thought Edwards was truly 1st round worthy. I thought Mike Williams was worth a 1st round pick, but not the actual year he was drafted. Any guy who is out of the game for a complete season scares me in the 1st round.

Of course late 1st round is a bit different than early first round as well. Roddy White at #27 is not as risky as Troy Williamson at #7, so that was probably a decent pick.

I don't like big time projects in the 1st round and that is why I thought the Jaguars screwed up taking Matt Jones at #21. Dallas took their project Stanback in the 4th round last year. Can you imagine if they used a 1st on him?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Sounds like a great case for trading one of Dallas' two #1 picks for a proven commodity in Detroit's Roy Williams.

Well done.

It means getting a WR through other means not to overpay for a WR.

Well done.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I wouldn't qualify Mark Clayton as "worth the pick".

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I thought it was funny that you say Jones is serviceable. The guy is not getting better.

Any position is risky to draft in the 1st round. WR along with QB are the harder positions for a young guy to come in and have an immediate impact. Some guys have come in and immediately became big time contributors, but most take some adjustment time before they become key parts of their offense.

I don't think drafting a WR is ever a bad idea, but it is one of the more difficult positions to project. Just makes the job much harder.



Those guys probably came out higher rated than most other WRs in other drafts. I would not have passed on them in 2004, but I would have passed on a lot of the other names listed and felt so at the time of their respective drafts.

Really I believe that unless you have no other pressing needs than WR you just dont draft them there. Linemen and CB for example are literally half as risky.

 

[Rack]

These 3 were worth the pick:
Braylon Edwards
Mark Clayton
Roddy White

These guys were huge risks that I would never have picked:
Mike Williams
Matt Jones

This is the only real flop:
Troy Williamson

So basically 3 out of 4 guys that I would have considered picking were worth the pick.

So only Williamson was a "real flop" cuz you personally would not have drafted MW and MJ in those spots?

Fact is they WERE drafted in those spots and they ARE flops.

And they aren't the only ones.

 

[slick325]

Sign Bernard Berrian or go for Fitzgerald. Id even go Williams for a thrid maybe a second but in noway shape or form draft a WR in the first.

I really am asking in what direction you would go with Dallas #28 pick. Lets assume that Berrian signs elsewhere. Dallas just picked a CB at #22. What do you do as GM with pick #28?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I wouldn't qualify Mark Clayton as "worth the pick".

well he thinks Roy williams is worth two first day picks as well....

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I really am asking in what direction you would go with Dallas #28 pick. Lets assume that Berrian signs elsewhere. Dallas just picked a CB at #22. What do you do as GM with pick #28?

I trade down or go for a top guard or S. Maybe even a RB but never ever ever a WR.

 

[theogt]

So only Williamson was a "real flop" cuz you personally would not have drafted MW and MJ in those spots?

Fact is they WERE drafted in those spots and they ARE flops.

And they aren't the only ones.

Yes, and in 5 years someone will be able to say that WR is a bad position to draft because Ted Ginn was a flop. Yet many think that was a horrible pick to begin with. There are obviously terrible or, to put it more politely, extremely risky picks and you shouldn't judge an entire position on when those risks don't pay off.

 

[Rack]

Yes, and in 5 years someone will be able to say that WR is a bad position to draft because Ted Ginn was a flop. Yet many think that was a horrible pick to begin with. There are obviously terrible or, to put it more politely, extremely risky picks and you shouldn't judge an entire position on when those risks don't pay off.

And many think it was a good pick so it's a moot point.

 

[Stash]

It means getting a WR through other means not to overpay for a WR.

Well done.

Enlighten all of us with those 'other means' genius.

I guess they 'overpaid' for Owens too?

Maybe they should rethink that move too - according to you that is.

Obviously you think you've got all the answers.

Amazing that you're able to even contradict yourself.

That's a gift.

 

[theogt]

I wouldn't qualify Mark Clayton as "worth the pick".

Eh...it's debatable. Give him a competent QB and we'll see.

 

[theogt]

And many think it was a good pick so it's a moot point.

You're missing the point. If I tell you not to pick someone. And you pick them and they suck. You can't come back and tell me I shouldn't pick a WR because your pick didn't pay off.

 

[Kangaroo]

WR bust at a significantly higher rate than other positions drafted in the first round and 2005 was no exception. Here are the WR drafter in the first 32 picks of 2005 and after 3 years the vast majority of them have busted.

Braylon Edwards
Troy Williamson
Mike Williams
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Roddy White

Edwards turned it around and had one of the best seasons in the NFL last year but rest ranged from serviceable in Jones to outright horrible in Mike Williams.

And you guys thought the Carpenter pick was bad....

Now I realize that Wade has said this but I think it bears repeating that in no way shape or from should we use one of our first two selections on a WR.

yet last year had 6 wr taken

Calvin Jonson 48 rec 756 yds 4tds (all that with having injuries and Kitna as a qb) solid rookie campaign

Ted Ginn Struggled 34 rec 420 yds 2tds

Dawayne Bowe 70 rec 995 yds 5tds

Robert Meachem 0 not a in active all season

Craig Davis 20 rec 188 yds 1td

Anthony Gonzalez 37 rec 576yds 3tds

So this last years rookies have shown some promise it will be a couple years to get a full grasp where they are at but so far they have produced overall solid for a rookie wr class

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Enlighten all of us with those 'other means' genius.

I guess they 'overpaid' for Owens too?

Maybe they should rethink that move too - according to you that is.

Obviously you think you've got all the answers.

Amazing that you're able to even contradict yourself.

That's a gift.

We signed TO as a FA, chachi so while your again upset with me your not making sense.

Other means would be a trade, FA, or another round of the draft.

So that means we could trade for Fitz or RW just not the latter for a first. We could drafta WR in rounds 2-7 or we could sign someone like Johnston or Berrian.

 

[Rack]

You're missing the point. If I tell you not to pick someone. And you pick them and they suck. You can't come back and tell me I shouldn't pick a WR because your pick didn't pay off.

You're missing the point.

The exact opposite of what you said is also true so (you ready), as I said before (ready?) it's a moot point.

It balances out. For every "you shouldn't draft him" that doesn't work out there's also a "You should draft him" that doesn't work out.

You wanted us to draft Manny Lawson, remember?

Not sure if I'm making myself clear, but I think you get the point (no pun intended).

 

[joseephuss]

I trade down or go for a top guard or S. Maybe even a RB but never ever ever a WR.

Are you talking only this draft or every draft when you say never ever. There are always exceptions. Of course as with any pick it comes down to good scouting to determine if a guy may pan out. I am glad Dallas took Michael Irvin at #11 in 1988. Some guys are worth it despite playing the WR position. You have to trust that you scouted them properly. Most of these busts aren't because they played WR, but because they were just overrated. They just happen to be WRs.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Sounds like a great case for trading one of Dallas' two #1 picks for a proven commodity in Detroit's Roy Williams.

Well done.

The point I was going to get to. Perfect example.

 

[theogt]

It balances out. For every "you shouldn't draft him" that doesn't work out there's also a "You should draft him" that doesn't work out.

Not necessarily. In this scenario it appears to be 3 to 1.

You wanted us to draft Manny Lawson, remember?

Yes, I didn't want us to draft Bobby Carpenter. If I had the choice to do over again between the two, I'd still pick Lawson.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

yet last year had 6 wr taken

Calvin Jonson 48 rec 756 yds 4tds (all that with having injuries and Kitna as a qb) solid rookie campaign

Ted Ginn Struggled 34 rec 420 yds 2tds

Dawayne Bowe 70 rec 995 yds 5tds

Robert Meachem 0 not a in active all season

Craig Davis 20 rec 188 yds 1td

Anthony Gonzalez 37 rec 576yds 3tds

So this last years rookies have shown some promise it will be a couple years to get a full grasp where they are at but so far they have produced overall solid for a rookie wr class

Over the years there have been years where most of the WR panned out but they are few and far between. 96 was a great yea r for WR yet there are many more busts overall.