2005 Showed Once Again WR in the First Is a Bad Idea

[Stash]

you can call it whatever you want it but it was bad enough that it made him miss one fourthof the season and might have gone on longer. it was also a knee injury that kept him out.

I would consider it serious if it required surgery, otherwise I wouldn't.

also if this was one injury in a vacuum then youd have a point but when you see a guy thats hurt every year it seems it throw up flags.

Plenty of players have missed a game here or there. I don't see the time that Williams has missed as significant enough to prohibit trading for him. Or to label him as injury prone.

Henry for example. when hes healthy hes a very good CB and had he not gottena 'mild sprain' this year he was on pace with all those pick for a probowl year. but hes always getting groin pulls or other mild sprains. i want o upgrade henry because of this and it severely diminshes his value.

im not saying that williams isnt a very talented receiver but what happens if we give up a first and he misses 2 or three games every year like he has been? what then? would you still consider that worth the first?

9 games out of 64 doesn't sound so bad to me. And the mitigating factor of the Lions having nothing to play for is a factor in my opinion regarding his missed time this year.

 

[joseephuss]

I see where they call Alvin Harper a bust. That is a hard one. By the criteria they chose, he was a bust. By what he was asked to do in Dallas, he was not. If Dallas needed him to be a #1 type receiver he would have easily been a bust, just like he was in Tampa. He would not have lived up to being a high draft pick, but he had the luxury of being the 3rd option in Dallas behind Irvin and Novacek. Actually, the 4th option because either Emmitt or Moose were probably the 3rd options on many pass plays.

I thought most of their rationale was good with Harper being an exception.

 

[dmoore]

I don't agree with not drafting WRs in the 1st round. You can't use what other guys have done as a reason not to draft a guy that you think fits your organization. While it's hard to find a true #1 WR, it's especially hard when you don't use early draft picks on them. I say if you like a guy and are confident in your scouting department, you take him. You just can't say, "look at all these other guys that have busted" as a legitimate excuse to not draft a position. Say there's a 33% success rate for WRs taken in the first round. You can't then use that fact to say that a certain WR has a 33% chance of succeeding. You can't use statistics like that. I don't think we take a WR in the first, because I haven't seen one that really stands out yet, but I wouldn't be against it if our scouting department thinks they're the BPA.

 

[kmd24]

im not saying that williams isnt a very talented receiver but what happens if we give up a first and he misses 2 or three games every year like he has been? what then? would you still consider that worth the first?

RW for 14 games vs. Berrian for 16? You bet. Missing a couple of games a year isn't a big deal. TO did it for about a 6 year stretch in the middle of his career, but it didn't keep him from being considered an elite receiver.

As for the draft pick - guys like Berrian are "free," but they're JAG's. If you want a player with a big upside, you have to be willing to pay.

 

[kmd24]

also if this was one injury in a vacuum then youd have a point but when you see a guy thats hurt every year it seems it throw up flags.

Thought I'd add that usually you are concerned when the injuries are related. All of RW's are unrelated. We're not talking about Donte Stallworth pulling his hamstrings year after year.

 

[IronCowboy]

You can do this thread for every year. You can say "Don't pick a QB in the first round, look at couch" "Dont pick a LT in the first round, look at D'Brickishaw Ferguson" etc, etc. For every bust, their is a hall of famer. The draft is about chances. Pick the right door, your on your way to the Superbowl, pick the wrong door, and well. Here comes a Top 5 pick.

 

[joseephuss]

You can do this thread for every year. You can say "Don't pick a QB in the first round, look at couch" "Dont pick a LT in the first round, look at D'Brickishaw Ferguson" etc, etc. For every bust, their is a hall of famer. The draft is about chances. Pick the right door, your on your way to the Superbowl, pick the wrong door, and well. Here comes a Top 5 pick.

It is not the information, it is how you use the information. If WR bust at a higher rate than other positions, then that means that the scouting department, general manager and coaches all have to do extra work to evaluate any potential WRs. You don't just rule them out because they play WR, but work harder in the evaluation process.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I understand that most players have dealt with injuries and I also understand that non of his injuries have been career threatening. Like I have said, i dont think hes a bad player by any means especially when he is healthy. At the same time you guys act like the fact that hes missed time every year but one doesnt matter.

Its literally made the difference between him putting up #1 WR stats one year and #2 and #3 WR stats every other year. its the difference between him being TO and being Patrick Crayton.

I mean it sounds like if he never got hurt you think hed be worth two firsts or something insane like that. I just think you guys dramtically undervalue a first round pick.

i know you guys think he can be a better player than Chambers for example but do you think he HAS BEEN a better player then Chambers?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It is not the information, it is how you use the information. If WR bust at a higher rate than other positions, then that means that the scouting department, general manager and coaches all have to do extra work to evaluate any potential WRs. You don't just rule them out because they play WR, but work harder in the evaluation process.

The way that i would handle it is that if there are two guys that are on the board that you have very close grades for and both are BPA and one is a offensive skill player and the other is not then you go with the is not.

Its just too much of a trend and as has been pointed out too much depends on the offensive system they are in and their ability to adapt to a new one.

 

[Stash]

I understand that most players have dealt with injuries and I also understand that non of his injuries have been career threatening. Like I have said, i dont think hes a bad player by any means especially when he is healthy. At the same time you guys act like the fact that hes missed time every year but one doesnt matter.

I wouldn't say it doesn't matter. But I would say that it wouldn't be a deal-breaker in my opinion.

Its literally made the difference between him putting up #1 WR stats one year and #2 and #3 WR stats every other year. its the difference between him being TO and being Patrick Crayton.

I wouldn't go that far. Williams has skills that far outweigh Crayton's - injury or not.

I mean it sounds like if he never got hurt you think hed be worth two firsts or something insane like that. I just think you guys dramtically undervalue a first round pick.

Speaking for myself, two first rounders is, was and always will be an insane price to pay. But I feel getting a young, skilled, known commodity with Pro Bowl level skills is worth investing one (of two) #1 picks.

i know you guys think he can be a better player than Chambers for example but do you think he HAS BEEN a better player then Chambers?

I think his 2006 season compares favorably to anything Chambers has done.

And I would point out that I think he would even improve as a player with better coaching - which I feel he would receive in Dallas.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

WR bust at a significantly higher rate than other positions drafted in the first round and 2005 was no exception. Here are the WR drafter in the first 32 picks of 2005 and after 3 years the vast majority of them have busted.

Braylon Edwards
Troy Williamson
Mike Williams
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Roddy White

Edwards turned it around and had one of the best seasons in the NFL last year but rest ranged from serviceable in Jones to outright horrible in Mike Williams.

And you guys thought the Carpenter pick was bad....

Now I realize that Wade has said this but I think it bears repeating that in no way shape or from should we use one of our first two selections on a WR.

Clayton was pretty good in '06 (no QB throwing to him in '07) and Roddy White was very good this year.




YAKUZA

 

[kmd24]

Its literally made the difference between him putting up #1 WR stats one year and #2 and #3 WR stats every other year. its the difference between him being TO and being Patrick Crayton.

He led the Lions in receiving yards in his first three seasons despite missing games in the first two seasons, so he *was* putting up #1 stats (and was the biggest receiving threat) for the Lions. His lesser stats in those first two seasons might be influenced by the QB playing there at the time.

 

[kmd24]

I mean it sounds like if he never got hurt you think hed be worth two firsts or something insane like that. I just think you guys dramtically undervalue a first round pick.

The point is that, with help now, Dallas might be able to win a Superbowl or two. A draft pick is very unlikely to provide the kind of impact that RW could.

It's a little bit mortgaging the future, but RW is young, so it's not in the same category as trading for, say, Randy Moss.

I'd be interested in a other players the caliber of RW or Larry Fitzgerald, but the landscape is likely to be relatively barren of those kinds of impact players.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I didnt realize that White had sucha good year. 1200 years is much better than decent. At the same time that makes 2 out of 6 playing well after three years.

Its been three years and I m just saying that if Landry says give a player three years to evaluate then I think its fair to look at them after three years.

you really need to do your research before you post these, the last time you did, you said that Aundray Bruce was a good draft pick

 

[xpistofer]

Fuzzy, you just made a great argument for getting a bona fide commodity at WR as opposed to gambling on an unknown at that position in the 1st. Hope Jerry takes your advice and puts #28 to good use.

Oh, rule out RB in the 1st if MBIII gets signed to a long term contract for starter money. QB is off the list, as well as TE right? So, how can we upgrade? Hmmm. After taking a CB at #22, do they take another DE/OLB, NT, Safety, ILB, DE at #28? Should Dallas go defense with both 1st rounders? Maybe, LT, LG or FB?

What's your take?

I'll bet MBIII doesn't get extended before the draft - because as you correctly point out - a long term deal would seem to show our draft plans...I bet Jerry tries to keep things a bit more close to the vest....

 

[scottsp]

you really need to do your research before you post these, the last time you did, you said that Aundray Bruce was a good draft pick

Tell me you're kidding.

 

[peplaw06]

All these stats really do is bring fear into the minds of fans.

I doubt many front office types or coaches put much stock into this stuff. They have more faith in their scouting, because they see it first hand.

I don't think a front office of a team is drafting in fear. Of course they know some picks will be busts, but that's just part of it.

If a team beileves that a WR is the best use of their pick in the first round, they're going to take it. I don't think they're going to pause because there may be a significant number of past 1st round WR busts.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Tell me you're kidding.

I'm not

sadly

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

you really need to do your research before you post these, the last time you did, you said that Aundray Bruce was a good draft pick

dude last time I did this I went through over 200 players and as i said then i really was not familiar with the picks from the eighties as it was before my time. as was pointed out at that time after going over the list with some of the elder statesmen it still came out almost the same as my mistakes worked in both regards.

Bruce played for 6+ years and started most of the time which confused me as olinemen have almost no stats. i made a mistake oh well. the bottom line is after the revision were made the same conclusion wsa drawn.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

All these stats really do is bring fear into the minds of fans.

I doubt many front office types or coaches put much stock into this stuff. They have more faith in their scouting, because they see it first hand.

I don't think a front office of a team is drafting in fear. Of course they know some picks will be busts, but that's just part of it.

If a team beileves that a WR is the best use of their pick in the first round, they're going to take it. I don't think they're going to pause because there may be a significant number of past 1st round WR busts.

if you dont think that front office people dont look at the number of draft picks that bust from certain schools, positions, backgrounds etc youre deluding yourself. why do you think phillips says that he doesnt like to draft WR in the first? i guess its because you think hes dumb or something like that.

there is a trend and it differs by over 10% from other positions and that is statistically significant. if you want to just disregard that then youre going to end up with a higher chance of missing.