2011 Packers (15-1) had the worst defense

xwalker said:
How about for the 2013 Cowboys?
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-0.3 differential
95.7 offense (7th best)
96.0 defense (7th worst)

Since I'm procrastinating, I can do the entire NFL:
Team Rating Diff / Record
SEA 39 / 13-3
DEN 29.9 / 13-3
NO 20.9 / 11-5
PHI 18.7 / 10-6
SF 15.3 / 12-4
CIN 14.8 / 11-5
KC 10.1 / 11-5
CHI 10 / 8-8
PIT 9.6 / 8-8
SD 9.1 / 9-7
CAR 7.4 / 12-4
NE 6.3 / 12-4
ARI 3.7 / 10-6
MIA 2.8 / 8-8
IND 1.9 / 11-5
TEN 0.3 / 7-9
BUF 0.1 / 6-10
DAL -0.3 / 8-8
DET -0.8 / 7-9
GB -4.2 / 8-7-1
CLE -8.4 / 4-12
TB -9.3 / 4-12
STL -9.9 / 7-9
BAL -10.2 / 8-8
NYG -10.7 / 7-9
ATL -12.9 / 4-12
NYJ -19.9 / 8-8
HOU -19.9 / 2-14
WAS -20 / 3-13
MIN -22.6 / 5-10-1
JAX -24.7 / 4-12
OAK -31.2 / 4-12
 
hairic said:
-0.3 differential
95.7 offense (7th best)
96.0 defense (7th worst)

Since I'm procrastinating, I can do the entire NFL:
Team Rating Diff / Record
SEA 39 / 13-3
DEN 29.9 / 13-3
NO 20.9 / 11-5
PHI 18.7 / 10-6
SF 15.3 / 12-4
CIN 14.8 / 11-5
KC 10.1 / 11-5
CHI 10 / 8-8
PIT 9.6 / 8-8
SD 9.1 / 9-7
CAR 7.4 / 12-4
NE 6.3 / 12-4
ARI 3.7 / 10-6
MIA 2.8 / 8-8
IND 1.9 / 11-5
TEN 0.3 / 7-9
BUF 0.1 / 6-10
DAL -0.3 / 8-8
DET -0.8 / 7-9
GB -4.2 / 8-7-1
CLE -8.4 / 4-12
TB -9.3 / 4-12
STL -9.9 / 7-9
BAL -10.2 / 8-8
NYG -10.7 / 7-9
ATL -12.9 / 4-12
NYJ -19.9 / 8-8
HOU -19.9 / 2-14
WAS -20 / 3-13
MIN -22.6 / 5-10-1
JAX -24.7 / 4-12
OAK -31.2 / 4-12
Click to expand...
Yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdowns, and interceptions. Your QB minus your opponent's. That's all it is.
 
xwalker said:
The 2011 Packers team that went 15-1 had the 32nd ranked defense in the league.

I found that interesting because there have been some questions about how much the Cowboys offense could carry the team this year if the defense just improved a little.

Cowboys 2013 415.3 yards/game

Packers 2011 411.6 yards/game

What saved the Packers defense was that they were tied for 1st in total takeaways with 38.

In 2013, the Cowboys were tied for 13th with 28 total takeaways.
Click to expand...

Well, they also had the #19 scoring defense and were 2nd is scoring differential at +12.6pts per game. Making the opposition play catch-up should help the defense and should lead to turnovers.
 
But I thought TOs created by the defense don't affect the output of the game. That's what the Garrett-homers kept telling me when they said it was all the defense's fault and I was saying this offense didn't capitalize multiple times on the chances this defense provided them with. We were 13th in turnovers, what were we the year before with Rob Ryan? Pretty bad, bottom-feeder bad..

In fact that was the excuse Garrett said following the firing of Rob and the hiring of Kiffen and Marinelli, i.e. the defense needs to give the offense more chances. So we upped the TOs dramatically, but were still 8-8..

Got to love how the standards keep changing for Garrett...
 
xwalker said:
Yes, points allowed and turnovers seem more important than yards allowed.
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Well, yes.

Yards allowed is a silly statistic. Especially if you have a high powered, quick strike offense that threw the ball a ton like the Packers. You're going to give up yards. The opposing offense will be on the field more often.

There's a big difference between giving up 350 yards but at 3.5 yards per play versus giving up 350 yards at 7.0 yards per play. One is a great defense, the other is a horrible defense. But the 'yards allowed' metric says they are the same.

It also doesn't consider the strength of the opposition either.

That's why I prefer FootballOutsiders defensive efficiency ranking. And Green still finished 25th that year. Far from worst in the league. But, still mediocre.





YR
 
Just as an aside, Dallas wasn't last in the league in points given up this year... And I'm not sure how bad our offense or defense was in TOP.
 
Rodgers' rating was slighly lower in the first half of those games, and the rating allowed by the defense was slightly higher in the second half.

So it wasn't a case of an otherwise bad defense feasting off turnovers when the opponent was playing catch-up. It was a record-setting season by a QB on a complete team that was strong for 4 quarters.
 
gimmesix said:
Then we have opposite concerns. The defensive line was a major weakness last year and it's unclear whether we've really upgraded in trading Hatcher for Melton coming off major injury, Ware for a rookie and journeyman, adding another journeyman in McClain, etc.

To me, Selvie was a good find, but even he was not consistent in his ability to put pressure on the passer, which this version of the 4-3 must absolutely have. The linebacker and safety issues will be minimized if the line does its job and consistently gets penetration. If it does not, it really doesn't matter who's behind the line because time is the enemy of good coverage.

Dallas hopes its waves of linemen will be able to provide that consistent pressure, and from that standpoint, it should be better off than the "waves" it put out on the field last year, but just because it has waves to put out there doesn't mean they can make waves.
Click to expand...

The biggest problem last season was that of the approximately 20 DL that they used, the majority of them were not with the team in training camp. Just look at the backup RDE. Everette Brown was not only an inferior player to Jeremy Mincey in talent and experience, but Brown wasn't even with the team in training camp. A guy like Crawford is expected to be the backup 3-tech as compared to a guy like Drake Nevis that came in without the luxury of going to TC with the team.

I see it as follows:

(Lawrence + Mincey) > (Injured Ware + Everette Brown) {the backups played a lot of snaps in place of Ware last season}

(McClain + Melton) > (Hayden + Hatcher) {you don't have to be an expert to see from game footage that McClain is an upgrade to Hayden}

Selvie + 1 year in the scheme > Selvie with less experience in the scheme {he could be really good if they can limit his snaps to 75% of last season}

Crawford + Training Camp > Mid-season street free agents with no TC

Obviously all bets are off if they have massive injuries like last season. The probability of injury should be lower with younger players.

My biggest question: If Crawford is the backup 3-tech, then who is the backup LDE? If Okoye recovers from his undisclosed issue, then Crawford probably moves to LDE to rotate with Selvie.

I feel good about the top 6:
Lawrence
Mincey
Melton
McClain
Selvie
Crawford

Oddly, it's the next 2 players that could be the key to the rotation because the top 6 will be better if they don't have to play too many snaps. Who steps up at these spots?
Martez Wilson - Long shot, but elite athleticism to play RDE.
Rayford - Long shot, but terrific size/speed combo (4.56 forty, 6-7, 267)
Dartwan Bush - Very long shot
Gardner - Fan favorite on draft day
Spencer - Possible mid-season option

Bishop - Completely dominant at small college level
Coleman - Late bloomer when moved from DE to DT in college
Okoye - Proven NFL player if healthy
Bass - Has shown flashes but hasn't been able to stay healthy
 
khiladi said:
But I thought TOs created by the defense don't affect the output of the game. That's what the Garrett-homers kept telling me when they said it was all the defense's fault and I was saying this offense didn't capitalize multiple times on the chances this defense provided them with. We were 13th in turnovers, what were we the year before with Rob Ryan? Pretty bad, bottom-feeder bad..

In fact that was the excuse Garrett said following the firing of Rob and the hiring of Kiffen and Marinelli, i.e. the defense needs to give the offense more chances. So we upped the TOs dramatically, but were still 8-8..

Got to love how the standards keep changing for Garrett...
Click to expand...

and the offense scored 27 points a game, does not change the fact the defense still played poorly giving up 27 points a game. Rod Marinelli does preach going after the ball guys hustling to the ball and ripping at the ball and it does create turnovers but the defense also was devastaed by injuries heck we had a couple of games where the opposing team never punted the ball and hung big numbers on this defense.
 
Yakuza Rich said:
That's why I prefer FootballOutsiders defensive efficiency ranking. And Green still finished 25th that year. Far from worst in the league. But, still mediocre.
Click to expand...
That ranking doesn't explain the 15-1 record, and wasn't designed to. The Packers ranked 9th in defensive passer rating, which has a higher win correlation than Football Outsiders' DVOA.

DVOA tries to be predictive, so it has to overvalue yards and undervalue takeaways due to their random nature.
 
xwalker said:
The biggest problem last season was that of the approximately 20 DL that they used, the majority of them were not with the team in training camp. Just look at the backup RDE. Everette Brown was not only an inferior player to Jeremy Mincey in talent and experience, but Brown wasn't even with the team in training camp. A guy like Crawford is expected to be the backup 3-tech as compared to a guy like Drake Nevis that came in without the luxury of going to TC with the team.
Click to expand...

I agree that this is the main reason for hope. We trucked in a lot of bodies because of injuries last year and a lot of them did not belong on an NFL field (and were trucked out as soon as possible for another replacement).

That alone should make us better, but by how much ... if it is even a measurable difference.

We certainly do not know if we have an end Ware's caliber (even hurt) or a DT who will give us close to what Hatcher did last year. We have better numbers overall, but might have fewer quality players. I hope that's not the case, but I'm trying to be realistic instead of expecting much out of players who have not shown much up to this point or ones coming back from a year off due to injury.

How smoothly does Lawrence's transition to the NFL go?

Do we get the Jeremy Mincey who had 8 sacks in 2011 or the one who totaled 5 the past two seasons?

Is the Terrell McClain who has not been a starter since his first year in Carolina really a starter here?

How long will it take for Melton, Spencer and Crawford to return to form, if they do? What exactly is his form anyway, considering in his only year he finished with 20 tackles and no sacks?

Can Selvie up his game to consistently provide pressure if he's called upon to start again?

The list of questions goes on and on.
 
gimmesix said:
I agree that this is the main reason for hope. We trucked in a lot of bodies because of injuries last year and a lot of them did not belong on an NFL field (and were trucked out as soon as possible for another replacement).

That alone should make us better, but by how much ... if it is even a measurable difference.

We certainly do not know if we have an end Ware's caliber (even hurt) or a DT who will give us close to what Hatcher did last year. We have better numbers overall, but might have fewer quality players. I hope that's not the case, but I'm trying to be realistic instead of expecting much out of players who have not shown much up to this point or ones coming back from a year off due to injury.

How smoothly does Lawrence's transition to the NFL go?

Do we get the Jeremy Mincey who had 8 sacks in 2011 or the one who totaled 5 the past two seasons?

Is the Terrell McClain who has not been a starter since his first year in Carolina really a starter here?

How long will it take for Melton, Spencer and Crawford to return to form, if they do? What exactly is his form anyway, considering in his only year he finished with 20 tackles and no sacks?

Can Selvie up his game to consistently provide pressure if he's called upon to start again?

The list of questions goes on and on.
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True but then Ware only recorded 8.5 sacks in his last 22 games, I loved Ware but reality is he has not been a productive player and replacing him given his play over the last 22 games should not be that hard. A no name in Selvie out produced him last year. I wish Ware the best but I keep hearing how we lost a great player fact is we lost a player who was once great.
 
Doomsday101 said:
True but then Ware only recorded 8.5 sacks in his last 22 games, I loved Ware but reality is he has not been a productive player and replacing him given his play over the last 22 games should not be that hard. A no name in Selvie out produced him last year. I wish Ware the best but I keep hearing how we lost a great player fact is we lost a player who was once great.
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Ware still had 34 pressures last year (PFF, so take it for what it's worth), which is the key to this defense, while being limited by his injuries. Selvie had 22.

Can we count on 34 pressures from the ends replacing Ware? Or for Selvie to increase his numbers to help make up that difference?

Replacing the player we lost might not be hard if we have gained someone at least equal to what a wounded Ware produced. Right now, we don't know if we've got even that ... and we actually need more than that for this defense to improve.
 
gimmesix said:
Ware still had 34 pressures last year (PFF, so take it for what it's worth), which is the key to this defense, while being limited by his injuries. Selvie had 22.

Can we count on 34 pressures from the ends replacing Ware? Or for Selvie to increase his numbers to help make up that difference?

Replacing the player we lost might not be hard if we have gained someone at least equal to what a wounded Ware produced. Right now, we don't know if we've got even that ... and we actually need more than that for this defense to improve.
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I like Ware but sorry I did not see much out of him for over a year and a half and while pressure is important so is making plays and he was so limited that he was not getting it done. Can his production over the last year and half be replaced? Yes I think it can and I think it will. Ware at his best no I don't see anyone as of yet who can play to that level but that is not the player who has been on the field for a while now. I hope the best for Ware in Denver but given what he was hauling in and what he was producing Dallas and Jerry made the right move. People have blasted Jerry over and over about hanging on to long well he did not this time he moved on from both Ware and Hatcher and young players have been bought in.
 
Doomsday101 said:
I like Ware but sorry I did not see much out of him for over a year and a half and while pressure is important so is making plays and he was so limited that he was not getting it done. Can his production over the last year and half be replaced? Yes I think it can and I think it will. Ware at his best no I don't see anyone as of yet who can play to that level but that is not the player who has been on the field for a while now. I hope the best for Ware in Denver but given what he was hauling in and what he was producing Dallas and Jerry made the right move. People have blasted Jerry over and over about hanging on to long well he did not this time he moved on from both Ware and Hatcher and young players have been bought in.
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Pressure isn't just important in this 4-3, it is key. This defense is predicated on the front four getting into the backfield and disrupting the play. (All defenses want pressure, but this one puts it on the shoulders of the "Rushmen" more than others that rely more on blitzing, confusion, etc.)

I agree that Ware has not been the same player he once was, but his numbers still have to be accounted for and his presence on the field also made offenses have to account for him. I'm not saying Dallas didn't make the move it had to with him, because the production didn't match the money and Dallas needed multiple line help. All I'm saying is I can't just expect these players, based on what we know of them, to replace even the lessened production that a wounded Ware provided.

I certainly hope they do because it's not like the superhigh bar he'd set in previous years. But look through the group of linemen we have and tell me where those 34 pressures (and more that are needed) are sure to come from. Until I see that, a wounded Ware remains better than anything we've got.

Same with Hatcher. Who knows if his production would have been the same this year? But he was disruptive last year and we've got to get what he provided plus more out of those interior linemen because ultimately, even with his production, it wasn't enough.
 
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