2011 Packers (15-1) had the worst defense

[xwalker]

I agree that this is the main reason for hope. We trucked in a lot of bodies because of injuries last year and a lot of them did not belong on an NFL field (and were trucked out as soon as possible for another replacement).

That alone should make us better, but by how much ... if it is even a measurable difference.

We certainly do not know if we have an end Ware's caliber (even hurt) or a DT who will give us close to what Hatcher did last year. We have better numbers overall, but might have fewer quality players. I hope that's not the case, but I'm trying to be realistic instead of expecting much out of players who have not shown much up to this point or ones coming back from a year off due to injury.

How smoothly does Lawrence's transition to the NFL go?

Do we get the Jeremy Mincey who had 8 sacks in 2011 or the one who totaled 5 the past two seasons?

Is the Terrell McClain who has not been a starter since his first year in Carolina really a starter here?

How long will it take for Melton, Spencer and Crawford to return to form, if they do? What exactly is his form anyway, considering in his only year he finished with 20 tackles and no sacks?

Can Selvie up his game to consistently provide pressure if he's called upon to start again?

The list of questions goes on and on.

Of those issues, my primary concern would be Melton's knee. Regardless of sack stats, Melton has proven when healthy to be a Pro Bowl and borderline All Pro type player.

Even if Lawrence and Mincey are both 7s and Ware was a 9, they average out better because Ware's backups were a 1 (i.e.. 7 + 7 = 14 vs 9 + 1 = 10).

There's game footage of McClain playing in the NFL in 2013. They targeted him on day 1 of free agency. If he can't play, there is a serious problem with the Cowboys scouting dept.

Selvie should be the same player as last season, but the key is how many snaps he plays, IMO. They must find another player to take some quality snaps at that position. That is a concern to me.

I don't expect anything from Spencer. If he contributes it's a bonus.

Maybe I should be more worried about Crawford's injury. In terms of his ability, the Cowboys seems to universally believe that he has it. He must have done some wow things in practice in the past to get the accolades that he's received from Romo, Hatcher and Marinelli. He did play a year in the other scheme so we know he has some ability to play against NFL players. At worst case, I could see him as a run defending LDE that keeps Selvie rested. Best case, he's the starter at LDE and moves over and is the top option to played DT beside Melton in the Nickel.

Like Spencer, if Okoye plays it's a bonus, but it's a significant one. He's started 69 NFL games, is only 25 and has experience with Marinelli. He has played both DT spots.

Here is what they had to start the season last year:
DeMarcus Ware DE/OLB
Jason Hatcher DT
Nick Hayden DT - Didn't play in 2012 and only played 2 games in 2011
George Selvie DE

Kyle Wilber DE/OLB - Eventually moved to SLB.
Landon Cohen DT - 7 games played in the previous 4 years
Edgar Jones DE/OLB - Career special teams player.
Jerome Long DT/DE
Caesar Rayford DE - Just acquired.

Just compare the 2nd DTs by games played the previous year:
Now:
McClain 16

At this time in 2013:
Hayden 0
Cohen 0
Long 0

Also compare the backup RDE
Now
Mincey - Regular season and post season contributor on Super Bowl team. Forty career starts and 20 career sacks.

Then
Wilber - Had never played DE and has minimal experience as a 3-4 OLB
Rayford - Had never played in the NFL. Was in training camp as a 3-4 OLB
Long - Zero NFL games played

 

[xwalker]

Great read on Rayford.
http://hardcorehusky.com/news/caesar-rayfords-relentless-fight-to-live-a-nfl-dream

Nice article. Thanks for posting it.

I think many people think Rayford failed last season, but he was actually pulled from action due to an injury.

Guys like Rayford and Martez Wilson have really good physical ability. They're long shots, but the more of them that you have on the roster, the higher the probability that one of them hits and becomes a quality player.

It says something that of all the DL players that the Cowboys had last season, they they kept Rayford and Wilson, despite the fact that players like Everette Brown and Wynn played a lot more snaps.

 

[gimmesix]

Oddly, it's the next 2 players that could be the key to the rotation because the top 6 will be better if they don't have to play too many snaps. Who steps up at these spots?
Martez Wilson - Long shot, but elite athleticism to play RDE.
Rayford - Long shot, but terrific size/speed combo (4.56 forty, 6-7, 267)
Dartwan Bush - Very long shot
Gardner - Fan favorite on draft day
Spencer - Possible mid-season option

Bishop - Completely dominant at small college level
Coleman - Late bloomer when moved from DE to DT in college
Okoye - Proven NFL player if healthy
Bass - Has shown flashes but hasn't been able to stay healthy

Despite my doubts about this defense, I am very excited about watching all these young guys compete on the line. Some (possibly most) will turn out to be disappointments, but you just never know who is going to step up and outplay expectations.

 

[gimmesix]

Of those issues, my primary concern would be Melton's knee. Regardless of sack stats, Melton has proven when healthy to be a Pro Bowl and borderline All Pro type player.

Even if Lawrence and Mincey are both 7s and Ware was a 9, they average out better because Ware's backups were a 1 (i.e.. 7 + 7 = 14 vs 9 + 1 = 10).

There's game footage of McClain playing in the NFL in 2013. They targeted him on day 1 of free agency. If he can't play, there is a serious problem with the Cowboys scouting dept.

Selvie should be the same player as last season, but the key is how many snaps he plays, IMO. They must find another player to take some quality snaps at that position. That is a concern to me.

I agree on Melton. Not sure that Lawrence and Mincey will both be 7s. Was Mincey really that close to an injured Ware last year or the previous year when Mincey started all 16 games? The numbers say no. The only real hope that he can provide even half of what we lost in Ware is 2011. Lawrence? Who knows. We've drafted DEs in the past in the first round, top of the second who barely deserved to be on the field.

Yes, Dallas targeted McClain (as well as Mincey), but the scouting department was definitely seeing more than he has shown.

I agree on Selvie.

I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic, but I just don't see any reason to be counting on increased production from players who haven't proven (other than Melton) that they can provide it. I have hopes. I have my fingers crossed. But the evidence we have available doesn't support it.

 

[Doomsday101]

Pressure isn't just important in this 4-3, it is key. This defense is predicated on the front four getting into the backfield and disrupting the play. (All defenses want pressure, but this one puts it on the shoulders of the "Rushmen" more than others that rely more on blitzing, confusion, etc.)

I agree that Ware has not been the same player he once was, but his numbers still have to be accounted for and his presence on the field also made offenses have to account for him. I'm not saying Dallas didn't make the move it had to with him, because the production didn't match the money and Dallas needed multiple line help. All I'm saying is I can't just expect these players, based on what we know of them, to replace even the lessened production that a wounded Ware provided.

I certainly hope they do because it's not like the superhigh bar he'd set in previous years. But look through the group of linemen we have and tell me where those 34 pressures (and more that are needed) are sure to come from. Until I see that, a wounded Ware remains better than anything we've got.

Same with Hatcher. Who knows if his production would have been the same this year? But he was disruptive last year and we've got to get what he provided plus more out of those interior linemen because ultimately, even with his production, it wasn't enough.

Sorry I think Ware numbers over the last 2 years are very replaceable I would also add Ware lining up most of the time on the weak side should produce more pressure but it is also a position where you expect more than just pressure it is getting sacks and yet Selvie from the strong side was able to out produce him. I hate coming down on Ware because for most of his career he has been an outstanding player but that player has not shown up for the last year and a half or more. When Dallas needed big plays from the defense Ware was not getting it done plain and simple. As for Hatcher did not do jack until last year out of how many? and all of a sudden he is irreplaceable? Not buying it Melton is a very good ball player. Sorry I think long run this defense will be better off with these young guys who have been brought in. I don't expect a top 10 finish from this unit but I do think there is a lot of promise with these young players. We will find out shortly

 

[xwalker]

I agree on Melton. Not sure that Lawrence and Mincey will both be 7s. Was Mincey really that close to an injured Ware last year or the previous year when Mincey started all 16 games? The numbers say no. The only real hope that he can provide even half of what we lost in Ware is 2011. Lawrence? Who knows. We've drafted DEs in the past in the first round, top of the second who barely deserved to be on the field.

Yes, Dallas targeted McClain (as well as Mincey), but the scouting department was definitely seeing more than he has shown.

I agree on Selvie.

I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic, but I just don't see any reason to be counting on increased production from players who haven't proven (other than Melton) that they can provide it. I have hopes. I have my fingers crossed. But the evidence we have available doesn't support it.

Mincey's stats from Jacksonville are skewed because they often used him as a DT in the Nickel. He should be a quality player in the base defense at RDE with Lawrence likely getting most of the snaps in the Nickel.

The problem last season was not only that Ware became less effective due to playing with injuries, but his backups played many snaps including 2 starts by Wilber and many snaps by Everette Brown later in the season.

Even if Ware is a 10, then he gets injured and becomes a 9 or 8. Then you give half of the snaps to some players that are closer to 1 than 10. The bar is low. The 2013 season was not like the years with a Healthy Ware that played 90+% of the snaps.

IMO, even if Mincey is just what he was last year that's a big upgrade as the backup RDE.

They don't generally play a true 1-tech in the Nickel and they played Nickel 61% of the snaps last season. If McClain can play 39% of the snaps at 1-tech, then that's not a big increase in production from his backup role in 2013. It will require somebody like Crawford to come in an play snaps as the 2nd DT in the Nickel. They seem to have a lot of possible options there. In addition to Crawford, other possibilities are Okoye, Bass, BIshop and Coleman. Mincey can even play that position if somebody else were to step up at RDE.

In regards to Lawrence, I was not certain if he has elite upside as a draft prospect, but he seemed like one of the safest picks at DE in the draft. He was a more technically developed player than most or possibly all DE in the draft. He was possibly the best run defender of all of the RDE types. I don't have any worries about him being at least a "7".

This is a good discussion and the more we go back and forth the better I can visualize the critical factors for the DL. The top concerns are flushing out to be the injury status of Melton and Crawford. Also, the more I think about it, the more the status of Okoye could be really important.

 

[gimmesix]

Mincey's stats from Jacksonville are skewed because they often used him as a DT in the Nickel. He should be a quality player in the base defense at RDE with Lawrence likely getting most of the snaps in the Nickel.

It all reminds me of Dallas' attempts to change the offensive line a few years ago. Dallas signed Nate Livings, a starter whom Cincinnati didn't think enough of to bring back, and Bernadeau, who was a backup in Carolina. I had hopes that they would prove to be finds to fix the line despite the evidence against them, but both players were pretty bad their first seasons in Dallas for various reasons.

Maybe Mincey and McClain are above that level, but I'm not ready to attach "quality" to either player's name yet, to the same extent that I'm not ready to proclaim Melton, Spencer, Crawford, Bass or Okoye healthy and back to form or Lawrence a lock to not be a bust, like Shante Carver was despite coming out of college having had 10 or more sacks all four years, leading his team in tackles and tackles for loss his senior year and having the defensive unit nicknamed after him.

There are a lot of interesting options here ... I don't deny that. Perhaps several of them pan out; perhaps none. I am glad, though, that Dallas is throwing a lot of darts at the wall to see which ones stick. For all we know, Davon Coleman, Ben Gardner and Martez Wilson could end up being the best of the bunch, that's how wide-open this is at this point.

 

[xwalker]

It all reminds me of Dallas' attempts to change the offensive line a few years ago. Dallas signed Nate Livings, a starter whom Cincinnati didn't think enough of to bring back, and Bernadeau, who was a backup in Carolina. I had hopes that they would prove to be finds to fix the line despite the evidence against them, but both players were pretty bad their first seasons in Dallas for various reasons.

Maybe Mincey and McClain are above that level, but I'm not ready to attach "quality" to either player's name yet, to the same extent that I'm not ready to proclaim Melton, Spencer, Crawford, Bass or Okoye healthy and back to form or Lawrence a lock to not be a bust, like Shante Carver was despite coming out of college having had 10 or more sacks all four years, leading his team in tackles and tackles for loss his senior year and having the defensive unit nicknamed after him.

There are a lot of interesting options here ... I don't deny that. Perhaps several of them pan out; perhaps none. I am glad, though, that Dallas is throwing a lot of darts at the wall to see which ones stick. For all we know, Davon Coleman, Ben Gardner and Martez Wilson could end up being the best of the bunch, that's how wide-open this is at this point.

Livings and Bernadeau failed in 2012 primarily due to injuries.

Bernadeau had surgery before and after that season. He had multiple issues and was never 100%.

Livings started out as the 2nd best OL, but got injured and quickly declined.

The Cowboys seem to have success with draft picks when they take a player that they were really focused on prior to the draft. This appears to be the case with Lawrence and Frederick. The flip side is a player like Claiborne that they didn't really expect to get and apparently didn't really research his personality and that type of thing. They didn't even meeting with Claiborne prior to the draft; whereas, it was known by guys like Broaddus that they really liked Lawrence prior to this draft.

In regards to Shante Carver, that was the Larry Lacewell years and nothing makes sense from back then. Their primary failure in the past 10 years was 2009 and they didn't have a 1st round pick then. I think the trade for Lawrence might have been influenced by the 2009 draft. Their top target in 2009 was Max Unger. Seattle traded in front of Dallas to pick him 2 spots before the Cowboys pick. In retrospect, they would have been better off even if they had traded all of their other picks to move up into the the 1st round to guarantee that they got the player they wanted.

 

[gimmesix]

Sorry I think Ware numbers over the last 2 years are very replaceable I would also add Ware lining up most of the time on the weak side should produce more pressure but it is also a position where you expect more than just pressure it is getting sacks and yet Selvie from the strong side was able to out produce him. I hate coming down on Ware because for most of his career he has been an outstanding player but that player has not shown up for the last year and a half or more. When Dallas needed big plays from the defense Ware was not getting it done plain and simple. As for Hatcher did not do jack until last year out of how many? and all of a sudden he is irreplaceable? Not buying it Melton is a very good ball player. Sorry I think long run this defense will be better off with these young guys who have been brought in. I don't expect a top 10 finish from this unit but I do think there is a lot of promise with these young players. We will find out shortly

Ware was a shell of himself BUT his production still has to be replaced and replacing that production isn't as easy as you want to make it out to be, because there are plenty of starting DEs who did not get near the same amount of pressures even a wounded Ware did last year.

A site called sporting charts http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/defensive-hurries/2013/ shows this, although, obviously, QB pressures or hurries are somewhat subjective.

For those who don't want to click on the site, it shows that Ware was eighth out of all defensive players last year in hurries (actually tied for seventh) at 16 in three fewer games than all of the players above him. (Selvie had 11 in 16 games and was 25th. Hatcher had nine in 15 games.)

Can you guarantee that a combination of Mincey and Lawrence (or whoever) can produce similar numbers, or the better numbers we actually need for the defense to improve? For that matter, do you know that Melton will be healthy enough along with Crawford or whomever to produce the numbers that the easily replaceable Hatcher gave us?

It seems like you are taking a grass is greener approach when that certainly could not end up being the case. I absolutely hope it is and I certainly wasn't for Dallas keeping Hatcher at the price it would have cost or retaining Ware at all cost, but I'm not going to walk into this blind expecting the defense to even be improved at all until some of these linemen show reason to believe it.

If we don't get consistent pressure (quite a bit more than we got last year), offenses will eat our coverage up and we'll be praying that we just don't finish last in the league defensively.

 

[gimmesix]

In regards to Shante Carver, that was the Larry Lacewell years and nothing makes sense from back then. Their primary failure in the past 10 years was 2009 and they didn't have a 1st round pick then. I think the trade for Lawrence might have been influenced by the 2009 draft. Their top target in 2009 was Max Unger. Seattle traded in front of Dallas to pick him 2 spots before the Cowboys pick. In retrospect, they would have been better off even if they had traded all of their other picks to move up into the the 1st round to guarantee that they got the player they wanted.

The point with Carver is that the production was there. Before his rookie season, it could have been easily expected, like it is for Lawrence, for him to succeed, but it didn't happen.

I count on no rookie to succeed (but always hope for the best) because too many have failed. (Vernon Gholston is a first-round end who comes to mind who's similar in size and weight to Lawrence.)

 

[Doomsday101]

Ware was a shell of himself BUT his production still has to be replaced and replacing that production isn't as easy as you want to make it out to be, because there are plenty of starting DEs who did not get near the same amount of pressures even a wounded Ware did last year.

A site called sporting charts http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/defensive-hurries/2013/ shows this, although, obviously, QB pressures or hurries are somewhat subjective.

For those who don't want to click on the site, it shows that Ware was eighth out of all defensive players last year in hurries (actually tied for seventh) at 16 in three fewer games than all of the players above him. (Selvie had 11 in 16 games and was 25th. Hatcher had nine in 15 games.)

Can you guarantee that a combination of Mincey and Lawrence (or whoever) can produce similar numbers, or the better numbers we actually need for the defense to improve? For that matter, do you know that Melton will be healthy enough along with Crawford or whomever to produce the numbers that the easily replaceable Hatcher gave us?

It seems like you are taking a grass is greener approach when that certainly could not end up being the case. I absolutely hope it is and I certainly wasn't for Dallas keeping Hatcher at the price it would have cost or retaining Ware at all cost, but I'm not going to walk into this blind expecting the defense to even be improved at all until some of these linemen show reason to believe it.

If we don't get consistent pressure (quite a bit more than we got last year), offenses will eat our coverage up and we'll be praying that we just don't finish last in the league defensively.

I watched him play you can go to any sight you want fact is Ware looked like trash last year when Dallas needed big plays from a big player he was not there, I don't want to be cruel but that is what I saw a guy who was no longer able to make a difference when games where on the line. You can talk pressure all you want but the object is not just pressure if you can’t get to the QB. As for the youth as I said I don't expect them to transform the defense into a top 10 but yes I think we can replace the little production we got from Ware. He lines up on the weak side and you bet I expect that side to bring pressure. Again as for Hatcher 1 time in how many years? Last season he played very good ball prior to that the most he ever got sack wise was 4.5 and yes under Marinelli system that is what helped Hatcher yet a lot of these guys we got they fit the bill with quickness off the snap shooting gaps exactly what Marinelli is looking for in his defensive fronts. Sorry but when people say I don’t know how we can replace Ware and his 6 sacks on the season? I say it is not that hard

 

[CCBoy]

Ware was a shell of himself BUT his production still has to be replaced and replacing that production isn't as easy as you want to make it out to be, because there are plenty of starting DEs who did not get near the same amount of pressures even a wounded Ware did last year.

A site called sporting charts http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/defensive-hurries/2013/ shows this, although, obviously, QB pressures or hurries are somewhat subjective.

For those who don't want to click on the site, it shows that Ware was eighth out of all defensive players last year in hurries (actually tied for seventh) at 16 in three fewer games than all of the players above him. (Selvie had 11 in 16 games and was 25th. Hatcher had nine in 15 games.)

Can you guarantee that a combination of Mincey and Lawrence (or whoever) can produce similar numbers, or the better numbers we actually need for the defense to improve? For that matter, do you know that Melton will be healthy enough along with Crawford or whomever to produce the numbers that the easily replaceable Hatcher gave us?

It seems like you are taking a grass is greener approach when that certainly could not end up being the case. I absolutely hope it is and I certainly wasn't for Dallas keeping Hatcher at the price it would have cost or retaining Ware at all cost, but I'm not going to walk into this blind expecting the defense to even be improved at all until some of these linemen show reason to believe it.

If we don't get consistent pressure (quite a bit more than we got last year), offenses will eat our coverage up and we'll be praying that we just don't finish last in the league defensively.

Guaranteeing a prediction on two new players when the top of the NFL outside pressures of Spencer, Ratliff, and Ware couldn't...is like taking a wedding vow that only says for better.

 

[BlindFaith]

Ware was a shell of himself BUT his production still has to be replaced and replacing that production isn't as easy as you want to make it out to be, because there are plenty of starting DEs who did not get near the same amount of pressures even a wounded Ware did last year.

For those who don't want to click on the site, it shows that Ware was eighth out of all defensive players last year in hurries (actually tied for seventh) at 16 in three fewer games than all of the players above him. (Selvie had 11 in 16 games and was 25th. Hatcher had nine in 15 games.)

Have you heard of Derrick Morgan? He put up almost identical stats to Ware in every category. He's getting paid less than a million a year.

 

[gimmesix]

Have you heard of Derrick Morgan? He put up almost identical stats to Ware in every category. He's getting paid less than a million a year.

And? No one's saying Lawrence can't put up even better numbers than Ware did last year. As Doomsday 101 has said, it isn't like he set the bar too high.

But there's also no reason to believe at this point that Lawrence won't turn out to be another Shante Carver or that Mincey won't be just another journeyman who doesn't work out or that Melton will be able to fully return from knee surgery this year.

I like what Dallas has done in getting a lot of bodies to throw at the positions. The more bullets, the better chance of hitting the target. But it could turn out that all of them are blanks and Dallas really is no better off this year on the defensive line than it was last year.

I'm braced for that and hope for much, much more.

 

[BlindFaith]

And? No one's saying Lawrence can't put up even better numbers than Ware did last year. As Doomsday 101 has said, it isn't like he set the bar too high.

But there's also no reason to believe at this point that Lawrence won't turn out to be another Shante Carver or that Mincey won't be just another journeyman who doesn't work out or that Melton will be able to fully return from knee surgery this year.

I like what Dallas has done in getting a lot of bodies to throw at the positions. The more bullets, the better chance of hitting the target. But it could turn out that all of them are blanks and Dallas really is no better off this year on the defensive line than it was last year.

I'm braced for that and hope for much, much more.

You stated that replacing Ware's production would not be that easy. I disagree. Is Lawrence the guy? I don't know. But Ware was not blowing people away with what he was doing on the field last year.

 

[BlindFaith]

I feel good about the top 6:
Lawrence
Mincey
Melton
McClain
Selvie
Crawford

Let's start with our top 4 pass rushers as of today.

Melton
Lawrence
Crawford
Selvie (based on not knowing about Rayford or Wilson)

Those four should be on the field for passing downs. Melton and Crawford inside - Selvie and Lawrence outside.

I see our run/first down defense like this.

Crawford
Bass (I think he will prove to be better than McClain)
Melton
Rayford (I'm going with Rayford since I really want Mincey off this team and I think Rayford can do what Mincey does, just cheaper and younger)

So my top 6 are:
Melton
Crawford
Lawrence
Bass
Selvie
Rayford

Top Backups:
McClain
Gardner
Bishop

I think we'll keep 10, so the last spot is up for grabs.

Wilson if he puts it all together and shows some heart.
Coleman since he seems to have shown a little something

I think Okoye and Spencer start the year on PUP and if they both return to previous form then that would be a major bonus.

 

[gimmesix]

You stated that replacing Ware's production would not be that easy. I disagree. Is Lawrence the guy? I don't know. But Ware was not blowing people away with what he was doing on the field last year.

Ware did not put up phenomenal numbers obviously, but it doesn't mean it will be easy to replace his numbers with Lawrence because, like you said, we don't know. It certainly doesn't mean it will be easy to replace his numbers with Mincey because we don't know.

If someone wants to tell me one of these guys, or both of them combined, will be better than No. 8 in the league in providing pressure next year, I'd be relieved to hear it because we need them to be. We needed Ware to be that, too, but he wasn't. That still doesn't guarantee that the ends we have are going to put up similar or better numbers.

It's possible that they will, and I hope that they will, but it's silly to just believe that they will simply because Ware's numbers weren't spectacular. Less than spectacular is still better than nothing, which is what we might get. Anyone who doesn't believe that's possible hasn't been paying attention to the many draft busts that occur each year or the free agents that don't pan out, especially when they are castoffs.

Again, I don't mean that Ware set the bar high. Simply that we might not have the players to reach it. Until I see that we do, I'm not going to get too excited about this defense's chances.

 

[xwalker]

Let's start with our top 4 pass rushers as of today.

Melton
Lawrence
Crawford
Selvie (based on not knowing about Rayford or Wilson)

Those four should be on the field for passing downs. Melton and Crawford inside - Selvie and Lawrence outside.

I see our run/first down defense like this.

Crawford
Bass (I think he will prove to be better than McClain)
Melton
Rayford (I'm going with Rayford since I really want Mincey off this team and I think Rayford can do what Mincey does, just cheaper and younger)

So my top 6 are:
Melton
Crawford
Lawrence
Bass
Selvie
Rayford

Top Backups:
McClain
Gardner
Bishop

I think we'll keep 10, so the last spot is up for grabs.

Wilson if he puts it all together and shows some heart.
Coleman since he seems to have shown a little something

I think Okoye and Spencer start the year on PUP and if they both return to previous form then that would be a major bonus.

I could see something like that; although you must know something about Bass that I don't. I just have not seen him. He didn't play last preseason and I don't remember if he played much the previous season. The only information I have is that Hatcher proclaimed both Bass and Crawford as future star players. I don't even know if he is more of a 1 or 3 tech.

 

[Blackspider214]

Yards per game is not a true indicator. So many teams can pile up yards inside the 20s. I know for a fact they did not give up the amount of points we did.

Also, they were ahead in their games so their opponents naturally started to air it out. Thus gaining more yards.

 

[xwalker]

The point with Carver is that the production was there. Before his rookie season, it could have been easily expected, like it is for Lawrence, for him to succeed, but it didn't happen.

I count on no rookie to succeed (but always hope for the best) because too many have failed. (Vernon Gholston is a first-round end who comes to mind who's similar in size and weight to Lawrence.)

Gholston is a better example than Carver. Many draft analysts had Carver rated as a late round pick. Reports also surfaced that some teams had him rated as a late round pick.

Gholston was considered a 1st round talent by most analysts. He was however considered a boom/bust type by some.

Much like Frederick, most analysts had Lawrence rated as a solid player but didn't know if he had elite upside. A number of analysts had him as a 1st round talent.

Bottom line: Any draft can pick bust, but there really are no simiarities between the situation with Carver as compared to Lawrence.