2018 Passer Rating on 10+Yard Targets

[Toruk_Makto]

Other than Foles' 2017 4 game playoff run, when else has he played stellar at QB? If Foles was so good, why did the Iggles let him go recently and instead keep injury-prone/locker room disruptor Carson Wince?

Drew Brees was let go. He must suck. Evry free agent was let go. They all must suck. I really hate that stupid argument.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Drew Brees was let go. He must suck. Evry free agent was let go. They all must suck. I really hate that stupid argument.

Answer the question.

 

[CCBoy]

The contrasts between Elliott and the running game, and what is now a valid down field passing game, should prove to be pretty hard for any team to beat...especially given a pretty strong defense to navigate around.

 

[percyhoward]

But you didn't include them in your original list. And you didn't include their efficiency splits.

All four are on the original list, and the information included for them is the same as that for all 31 QB in the sample.

21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7

 

[Sydla]

Other than Foles' 2017 4 game playoff run, when else has he played stellar at QB? If Foles was so good, why did the Iggles let him go recently and instead keep injury-prone/locker room disruptor Carson Wince?

Because he was going to be a $20MM+ cap hit to be the backup QB, which would have been pretty silly for Philly to do.

Smart people can see this.

 

[Sydla]

He starts the yr in a hole, if he has cooper for the whole yr he most likely is inside the top 10

Not likely. Because his passer rating with Cooper was still outside the Top Ten for the season.

 

[Sydla]

This just is more evidence that Dak Prescott is a decent QB, not great, not horrible.......... just decent.

If you want to pay "decent" the contract some of you think he deserves, then it is what it is I guess. I think it's a mistake until you see him play out the 2019 season.

 

[Corso]

No.

You vouch for me.

Remember?

Makes me feel like I am in an old James Cagney gangster movie..

' Yeah copper..

"She vouches for me. We were at her place all night. I couldn't have murdered the mug.."

Been watching to many YouTube 50s movies.

Sorry.

Carry on.

You dirty rat!!!
You killed my brother!

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Dak and Cooper and the O/C are going to have to up their game in 2019 if we expect to be a solid passing team because after a very hot start together with Dak and the Cowboys teams started adjusting to Cooper and Dak and the offense. Here are their last 5 games together including playoffs

4 of 7 for 32 yards zero TD's
4 of 5 for 20 yards zero TD's
5 of 11 for 31 yards zero TD's
7 of 9 for 106 yards zero TD's...playoff game
6 of 9 for 66 yards one TD'....playoff game

 

[Idgit]

This just is more evidence that Dak Prescott is a decent QB, not great, not horrible.......... just decent.

If you want to pay "decent" the contract some of you think he deserves, then it is what it is I guess. I think it's a mistake until you see him play out the 2019 season.

It’s actually evidence that he’s decent at something he’s got a reputation for not being good at. Which suggests he’s maybe better than decent, overall, if other areas of his game remain strong.

It also suggests what part of his game can significantly improve. Especially as Percy later posts about much of the issue has to do with performing better on specific routes with one WR in particular.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

All four are on the original list, and the information included for them is the same as that for all 31 QB in the sample.

You broke out the dependency on the short throws of Dak in comparison to some not great passers of the football from your original list.

When I showed that of that subsection of passers you broke out how Dak throws a much higher percentage of shorter throws you then brought into that discussion Brady, Rodgers and Brees.

But failed to show their split efficiency numbers so that the comparison stayed relevant. Are Brees, Rodgers and Brady dependent on their short throws for efficiency? Probably not but you didn't break them down in this post like you did with Dak and the aforementioned poor passers. Why?

Were you trying to make Dak look good relative to Mitch and Cam and Smith and Winston? And when I used that data to prove a point you pivot to Rodgers, Brady & Brees without the necessary context?

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

No, his passer rating on targets of 9 yards or less is lower. The shorter throws actually hurt his numbers.

Target 10+ yards
Prescott
89 of 175 50.9% 1866 yd 10.7 ypa 15 td 7 int 100.7

Target < 10 yards
309 of 382 80.9% 2511 yd 6.6 ypa 9 td 2 int 99.7

Guys like Trubisky, Newton, and Smith get 20+point boosts from the shorter throws.

If only Dak would learn to dink and dunk

 

[Toruk_Makto]

If only Dak would learn to dink and dunk

He has. Almost 70% of his throws were of the 9 yards and less variety.

And on 20+yd targets he's below the NFL average attempts by 10%.

And on 10-19 yard targets he's below the nfl average attempts by 15%.

And on 0-9 yard targets he's above the nfl average attempts by 10%.

This idea that Dak doesn't play close to the line of scrimmage isn't born out by the facts.

 

[cowboyblue22]

stats are great but the thing that makes your reputation and cements your legacy is playoff wins what do u do when the lights are the brightest when u are playing the best of the best that's where the cowboys have pretty much sucked at for a long time now that goes for the qb the team and the coaches

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

That’s about where I have Dak. A middle of the road QB. And why this talk of him making 26 million a year or more in just insane talk

So your solution is to do what with our above average 25 year old QB?

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Why should Dak get considerably more money than Nick Foles just received in this market environment?

Ummmmm

I guess we would start with age. Should be pretty obvious.
Then we would go with on field play.

Completion %: Dak 66.1% vs 61.6% for Foles
2.68 TD:INT ratio for Dak vs 2.06 for Foles which doesnt include rushing scores
7.4 yards per attempt for Dak, 7.0 for Foles

So other than that, I can't quite put my finger on why he would.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Ummmmm

I guess we would start with age. Should be pretty obvious.
Then we would go with on field play.

Completion %: Dak 66.1% vs 61.6% for Foles
2.68 TD:INT ratio for Dak vs 2.06 for Foles which doesnt include rushing scores
7.4 yards per attempt for Dak, 7.0 for Foles

So other than that, I can't quite put my finger on why he would.

This is as rudimentary an analysis as i've seen between the two qbs and ignores the context and surrounding team infrastructure that each has dealt with.

If you truly believe Dak has been a better QB over the last 3 years then let's agree to disagree. But that's not the point.

Dak and Foles are in the same tier of starters and one just signed a brand new contract this offseason that is about as long as Dak will sign for (a year or maybe 2 short). Further, age isn't a concern at the QB position. Foles is younger than Russell Wilson. They should be in similar monetary categories.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

This is as rudimentary an analysis as i've seen between the two qbs and ignores the context and surrounding team infrastructure that each has dealt with.

If you truly believe Dak has been a better QB over the last 3 years then let's agree to disagree. But that's not the point.

Dak and Foles are in the same tier of starters and one just signed a brand new contract this offseason that is about as long as Dak will sign for (a year or maybe 2 short). Further, age isn't a concern at the QB position. Foles is younger than Russell Wilson. They should be in similar monetary categories.

I think you said it pretty well, it's obvious you dont think Dak has been the better QB over the last three year, and so our conversation should end right there. There won't be anything to gain from it on my end, and I'm not in the mood to inform.

 

[Sydla]

It’s actually evidence that he’s decent at something he’s got a reputation for not being good at. Which suggests he’s maybe better than decent, overall, if other areas of his game remain strong.

It also suggests what part of his game can significantly improve. Especially as Percy later posts about much of the issue has to do with performing better on specific routes with one WR in particular.

What other areas of his game are strong though? Not many. In fact, he's pretty much decent all around when you look at various statistics, etc.

He could get better but then again, look at his numbers with Cooper added. They were still outside the Top 10. Again, what Percy brought here would seemingly indicate that Dak is a decent, above average, but not great QB.

Don't paint with a broad brush and just make it seem like all those that aren't pro-Dak think he sucks. You're a better poster than that. Don't act like Rockport or some of the other ninnies.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I think you said it pretty well, it's obvious you dont think Dak has been the better QB over the last three year, and so our conversation should end right there. There won't be anything to gain from it on my end, and I'm not in the mood to inform.

What tier of starter is Dak? Where is Foles? Where would you rank them? How much more money should Dak get than Foles? Because currently people are speculating its on the order of 70-100MM more.

How much better does Dak need to be than Foles for him to get 100MM more?