5/29 PFF article hints that Romo is poor under pressure

[DFWJC]

This stat is the most odd part:

When Facing No Pressure
Romo at the bottom of the first list.

Let’s start with the easy stuff. Who are the top quarterbacks in a clean pocket?


Quarterback Dropbacks Att Comp Comp% Yds Yds/Att TD INT PFF Grade QB Rating
Drew Brees 2584 2567 1860 72.5% 21766 8.5 177 56 211.9 111.7
Aaron Rodgers 2346 2233 1584 70.9% 19144 8.6 157 36 181.8 113.6
Matt Ryan 2177 2110 1433 67.9% 16126 7.6 109 44 141.9 99.1
Philip Rivers 2008 1978 1399 70.7% 17252 8.7 120 47 137.1 107.7
Peyton Manning 2045 2040 1451 71.1% 15777 7.7 127 35 137.0 107.2
Tom Brady 2021 2006 1404 70.0% 16611 8.3 126 31 123.0 109.4
Ben Roethlisberger 1913 1876 1243 66.3% 15091 8.0 85 39 107.0 97.3
Matt Schaub 1828 1805 1291 71.5% 15420 8.5 85 41 101.3 103.5
Eli Manning 2056 2034 1347 66.2% 15884 7.8 114 47 100.0 98.9
Joe Flacco 2153 2122 1375 64.8% 16233 7.6 92 42 95.0 94.2
Tony Romo 1797 1773 1242 70.1% 14573 8.2 98 37 68.7 104.4

Weird...

Even then, PFF gives Flacco a much higher score (95 to 69)

Yet Romo had ...
A higher completion rate
More TDs
Less turnovers
A higher QB rating
Higher yards per completion

I mean, he is better at everything...but graded lower.

It's just odd

 

[percyhoward]

To what degree does PFF's stat correlate to team success (wins)? Either PFF doesn't know, or doesn't want us to know, as there is no mention of win correlations in the article.

There has been some good research into QB stats and their correlation to winning. ESPN's "total QB rating" which was supposed to be the new standard for QB stats, was found not to have any significantly higher correlation to winning than passer rating, which has been around since 1971. The three stats that consistently grade out the best are passer rating, adjusted net yards/attempt, and win probability added/game.

Number of Top 5 Rankings, 2006-12

Passer Rating
Brees 4
PManning 4
Rodgers 4
Brady 3
Rivers 3
Roethlisberger 3
Romo 3

Adjusted Net Yards/Att
Brees 4
Brady 4
PManning 4
Rivers 3
Rodgers 3
Romo 3
Favre 2

Win Prob Added/Game
Brady 4
PManning 4
Rodgers 4
Romo 4
Brees 3
Ryan 3
Rivers 2


Combined Top 5's since 2006
PManning 12
Brees 11
Brady 11
Rodgers 11
Romo 10
Rivers 8

All stats aren't equally meaningful, but these are some of the most meaningful ones as they relate most closely to wins.


If you want to include ESPN's QBR (which I'd be careful with because it includes a subjective element -- the "clutch" rating -- and it still doesn't correlate to winning any more than the traditional passer rating anyway), here is the number of combined top 5's since that stat was introduced in 2008:
Rodgers 14
Brady 11
Brees 10
Ryan 9
P Manning 9
Rivers 7
Romo 5
Roethlisberger 3
Schaubb 3

 

[burmafrd]

PFF= garbage in, garbage out