A Look At Ted Ginn Jr.

[theogt]

From the poll thread, it appears that there's growing support for Ted Ginn Jr. I haven't been exactly high on Ginn, so I thought I'd put together some facts about him to show why. I first compare his receiving numbers to two other players -- Dwayne Bowe and Steve Smith. I did this primarily because they were 2 of the top receivers that I actually had all of the following stats for. Calvin Johnson had the stats for the following but his numbers were quite low (not a surprise given he had Reggie Ball throwing to him). Unfortunately, I didn't have Robert Meachem's full season stats. However, based on the stats from his first six games, he was statistically the best reciever at the top of the draft class.

So how does Ginn stack up as a receiver?

Yards Per Pass Attempt: 8.39
Dwayne Bowe: 10.31
Steve Smith: 10.72

% of Completions Per Pass Attempt: 63.4%
Dwayne Bowe: 67.7%
Steve Smith: 70.3%

% of First Downs Per Pass Attempt: 34.40%
Dwayne Bowe: 48.95%
Steve Smith: 47.52%

Okay. So he's not that great of a possession reciever. But is he a big play receiver? Does he have that home run ability? Let's look.

% of 20-yard Completions Per Pass Attempt: 9.68%
Dwayne Bowe: 18.75%
Steve Smith: 15.84%

% of Touchdowns Per Pass Attempt: 9.68%
Dwayne Bowe: 12.5%
Steve Smith: 8.91%

Not so much. He doesn't exactly bring that big play threat at the receiver position. But does he have that extra spark in the return game? Can he provide that "wow" factor there?

Kickoff Returns: 24 Att, 24.4 average, 1 TD return.

That average ranks him 3rd in his conference and 29th in the Division I. Those aren't exactly impressive numbers. But what about Punt Returns?

Punt Returns: 24 Att, 11.1 Average, 1 TD return.

That ranks him third in the Big Ten and 25th in Division I. Again, not impressive. So where did he get his superior return reputation? Well, in 2005 he led the Big 10 and ranked 4th nationally with a 29.56-yard average on eighteen kickoff returns which included 1 TD return. Those numbers certainly are impressive, but it appears it brought him out from under the radar for the 2006 season.

Once teams began focusing on stopping Ginn's kick returns they essentially did so. In the NFL, he'll be facing the best Special Team players that focus in on him every single week. Can he provide that explosive return ability in the NFL? Maybe, but he didn't do it in 2006 in college.

 

[LD Fan]

Nice analysis. Based on these numbers, we should just wait and sign him as an undrafted FA.

 

[Jake0]

The only stats I care about are how he does in big games. His performance against teams that OSU dismantles are pretty meaningless. None of these stats include returns, but if you watch the highlight videos on youtube, you know he broke a punt return on michigan and almost broke another in the '05 meeting. This is Michigan we're talking about here, who's gonna know more about OSU than Mich? So get the film study excuse out of here.

2005 OSU @ Michigan -> 9 catches 89 yards. Respectable, and also shows a little that he's more than just a deep ball guy.

2005 Fiesta Bowl vs ND -> 8 catches 167 yards 1td, 2 rushes 73 yards 1td. Completely dominates a bowl game.

2006 OSU @ Texas #1 vs #2 -> absolutely scorched them. Game turned into a blowout, if necessary he could have easily had more than 5 catches 97 yards and a td.

2006 Mich @ OSU #1 vs #2 again -> 8 catches 104 yards 1td.

National Title Game -> it's a pity that the idiot tackled him from behind
and took him out of the game, but that happening is probably the only reason we'd even have a shot at him at #22. However, the first time he did touch the ball in that game he ran it back for a touchdown.... IN THE NATIONAL TITLE GAME. It was also very apparent to me that OSU's offense went to **** with Ginn out. Gonzalez is good but by himself without Ginn drawing defenders, he was useless. Troy Smith was pressured quite a bit, but even when he had time, no one could gain any separation.

Ginn was pretty much always a major factor in every game with the spotlight all over him. I'll take someone who performs when it counts over someone who just pads his career statistics in garbage time when the other team is completely demoralized.

I've been on the trade up for Peterson bandwagon since day 1, we're in a good position to do so if he slips. But if he doesn't, then I want Ginn at 22 if he's there. Only people that have a slight chance of being there at 22 that I'd rather have than Ginn are Revis and maybe Meachem, who I've been hearing is a lock for top 15 lately.

 

[Concord]

Did you ever actually watch the guy play?

 

[Concord]

The only stats I care about are how he does in big games. His performance against teams that OSU dismantles are pretty meaningless. None of these stats include returns, but if you watch the highlight videos on youtube, you know he broke a punt return on michigan and almost broke another in the '05 meeting. This is Michigan we're talking about here, who's gonna know more about OSU than Mich? So get the film study excuse out of here.

2005 OSU @ Michigan -> 9 catches 89 yards. Respectable, and also shows a little that he's more than just a deep ball guy.

2005 Fiesta Bowl vs ND -> 8 catches 167 yards 1td, 2 rushes 73 yards 1td. Completely dominates a bowl game.

2006 OSU @ Texas #1 vs #2 -> absolutely scorched them. Game turned into a blowout, if necessary he could have easily had more than 5 catches 97 yards and a td.

2006 Mich @ OSU #1 vs #2 again -> 8 catches 104 yards 1td.

National Title Game -> it's a pity that the idiot tackled him from behind
and took him out of the game, but that happening is probably the only reason we'd even have a shot at him at #22. However, the first time he did touch the ball in that game he ran it back for a touchdown.... IN THE NATIONAL TITLE GAME. It was also very apparent to me that OSU's offense went to **** with Ginn out. Gonzalez is good but by himself without Ginn drawing defenders, he was useless. Troy Smith was pressured quite a bit, but even when he had time, no one could gain any separation.

Ginn was pretty much always a major factor in every game with the spotlight all over him. I'll take someone who performs when it counts over someone who just pads his career statistics in garbage time when the other team is completely demoralized.

I've been on the trade up for Peterson bandwagon since day 1, we're in a good position to do so if he slips. But if he doesn't, then I want Ginn at 22 if he's there. Only people that have a slight chance of being there at 22 that I'd rather have than Ginn are Revis and maybe Meachem, who I've been hearing is a lock for top 15 lately.

That's it in a Nutshell.

 

[AsthmaField]

Because of the differences in QB's, scheme, schedule, etc., I find it difficult to get too caught up in stats like these.

At least for RB's you can take the QB throwing out of the equation... but even then, schedule, OL, etc. come in to play.

I appreciate you doing the work theogt... and I've done plenty of research like this myself (in my spare time)... but it's just too difficult to take every variable into consideration.

Heck, you hinted at it yourself when you said that Johnson's stats don't measure up... and he's by far the best WR in the draft.

Bottom line for me is that I like Ginn's explosiveness and think he can change a game with his speed, but it will take time for him to become an effective everydown WR... if he ever does.

 

[theogt]

Did you ever actually watch the guy play?

Yes, I did. I wasn't too terribly impressed. I bought into the hype, but I never saw him really live up to it in the '06 season. You can ignore these statistics -- that's fine with me.

 

[LD Fan]

Yes, I did. I wasn't too terribly impressed. I bought into the hype, but I never saw him really live up to it in the '06 season. You can ignore these statistics -- that's fine with me.

I tend to agree with you. He played on a loaded team and had somewhat up and down performances.

 

[theogt]

Because of the differences in QB's, scheme, schedule, etc., I find it difficult to get too caught up in stats like these.

At least for RB's you can take the QB throwing out of the equation... but even then, schedule, OL, etc. come in to play.

I appreciate you doing the work theogt... and I've done plenty of research like this myself (in my spare time)... but it's just too difficult to take every variable into consideration.

Heck, you hinted at it yourself when you said that Johnson's stats don't measure up... and he's by far the best WR in the draft.

That's a great point. Having a better QB can certainly make a WR better. So let's compare the QB stats to see how they stack up.

Completion %
T. Smith: 65.3%
J. Booty: 61.7%
J. Russell: 67.8%
R. Ball: 44.4

QB Rating
T. Smith: 161.91
J. Booty: 144.01
J. Russell: 167.03
R. Ball: 107.2

You can't really begin to compare Reggie Ball to Troy Smith. Smith won the Heisman Trophy. It's not as if Ginn had some scrub throwing to him. His numbers were better than Booty's and comparable to Russell's.

And by the way, the difference in scheme should not matter. Yes, Ohio State isn't a high-passing offense. But we're looking at percentages. Whether they throw 200 times per season or 600 times per season shouldn't matter, because we're talking about percentages.

I could look up the average pass-defense rankings of these teams, but they all played top level talent. None of them had particularly weak schedules. So I'd assume there wouldn't be a significant difference.

Bottom line for me is that I like Ginn's explosiveness and think he can change a game with his speed, but it will take time for him to become an effective everydown WR... if he ever does.

I'm not saying that he isn't fast. I'm not saying he isn't explosive. I'm not saying he's not a special talent. I'm not even saying that he couldn't develop into one of the best receivers in the game.

I'm just saying that his speed and explosiveness didn't translate to the stat sheet in college. It just didn't translate into "production."

 

[smarta5150]

What about Jarret's comparisons?

 

[Concord]

Yes, I did. I wasn't too terribly impressed. I bought into the hype, but I never saw him really live up to it in the '06 season. You can ignore these statistics -- that's fine with me.

I watched every game he ever played at Ohio ST.

I doubt you did that.

If you weren't impressed...Then you weren't paying attention.

 

[smarta5150]

I watched every game he ever played at Ohio ST.

I doubt you did that.

If you weren't impressed...Then you weren't paying attention.

Breaston is a better returner.

 

[theogt]

What about Jarret's comparisons?

Unfortunately I didn't have the stats on Jarrett. I really wanted to see his stats, but NFLDraftScout didn't contain all of them.

 

[theogt]

I watched every game he ever played at Ohio ST.

I doubt you did that.

If you weren't impressed...Then you weren't paying attention.

And I'm sure you're completely unbiased.

 

[smarta5150]

Unfortunately I didn't have the stats on Jarrett. I really wanted to see his stats, but NFLDraftScout didn't contain all of them.

I am getting more and more interested in him as we get closer to draft day...

For some reason he really intrigues me as of late.

Forget Mike Williams and some might see his real potential.

 

[Concord]

Breaston is a better returner.

Right.

 

[smarta5150]

Right.

OK, Manningham is a better WR than Ginn... lets see how big a homer I think you really are.

 

[Concord]

And I'm sure you're completely unbiased.

Well I think plenty of Draft scouts think the same thing.

If his dumb as rocks teammate Hall don't hurt him...He's a top 10-15 pick.

 

[AsthmaField]

That's a great point. Having a better QB can certainly make a WR better. So let's compare the QB stats to see how they stack up....

...I'm just saying that his speed and explosiveness didn't translate to the stat sheet in college. It just didn't translate into "production."

I'm not making an argument for Ginn... I'm just saying in general, that it's very difficult to make too much sense out of stats like these. Finding the stats for the QB's certainly is a good start, but still too many variables for me.

There are plenty of other players that I'd rather have than Ginn and I realize his production isn't what some other's are... so don't take my post to mean that I think we need to draft Ginn (I voted Spencer in your poll). Notice I said "if" he ever does become a complete WR. There are many other's I'd take before Ginn. However, I wouldn't be too upset if we took him either.

 

[theogt]

Well I think plenty of Draft scouts think the same thing.

If his dumb as rocks teammate Hall don't hurt him...He's a top 10-15 pick.

The overwhelming majority of draft scouts have him ranked as the 4th best receiver in the draft. Many have him ranked even lower. You can debate about whether the injury hurt him, but he showed in his Pro Day that he's very fast, even at 75% health.

Foot injury or not, these are his stats fully healthy.